Beware Mr. Profile !

Image by Walters Art Museum Illuminated Manuscripts via Flickr

Image by Walters Art Museum Illuminated Manuscripts via Flickr

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Whenever there is a concomitance of events, an intersection of interests will prevail”

Welcome to the crisis in its multifaceted forms.

We all know that in 2012 we have several elections to take place, mainly in the US, Iran, Russia, Egypt and France.

In order to get into an insight of the global geopolitical environment, we need to have a better look at the anatomy of the crisis.

From one side there are automatic cuts on the US federal budget, a lack of US tax reform, an unidentified third QE, and from another side we have Euro area tensions and differences opposing two views versus the role of the ECB.

In the midst there is an ongoing Arab spring coupled to an Iranian effort to become nuclear and to the management of three heavy theaters (Iraq, Afpak and Syria).

Assuming that elections in the US will absorb the most significant efforts in geopolitics, these cannot stop the financial markets from acting.

Therefore pressure will persist on both policy makers and the FED to deliver a sound stability to promote growth, consumer spending and employment.

The margin of maneuver is always tighter, yet the FED can still inject a third QE, focused to support a special program for the principal reduction in real estate households, until a new administration and congress will deliver the required reforms in Taxation, Pensions, startup holiday regulation and health care.

Assuming by contrast, that Germany will not adopt a softer approach, to evolve the role of the ECB, from control of inflation to a lender of last resort; I am afraid that even the IMF will not be able to find the right mechanism to help Europe in its monetary crisis.  If Europe doesn’t help itself ?

From here I am keen to consider the German Chancellor in front of a sole option and that is to lead Europe into a bifurcate mission, to print money through the ECB and to link with Russia to ensure a peaceful passage of energy on the continent.

While all countries will face challenges ahead, only collective interests will be a common denominator to find a plausible future scenario.

Nial Ferguson recently wrote a creative article about Europe in 2021 and in the meantime some commentators will probably differ with Stratfor’s and International Crisis Group‘s latest assessments about Syria.

In my perception there is only one route ahead and this a third QE in the US, a first QE in the EU, a demise of Assad in Syria and a rehabilitation of Indian and Chinese economies.

Many thinkers will find in the demise my weak point, but I will elaborate saying that many oil fields in Iraq will be exploited by Chinese, French and Russian companies, hence the latest harsh menaces of senior Russian or Iranian officials are to be considered in their context : rhetoric’s.

What remains to be determined is how the IRGC will use Hezbollah and Hamas.

Is this really an incognito or can it be included in the interests prevalence thesis?

I say that the IRGC will never open a side theater, as it will risk its own survival, from here, it will watch silently the agony of Bashar and will eventually encourage Hezbollah to defend itself and find a deal with the STL verdicts.

From above we can easily affirm that in absence of decisive US and EU actions to adjust their own economies, much of the global institutions will acquire more fragility, encouraging hot heads to supersede collective interests in setting strategies.

Therefore the Iranian projection of power and sphere of influence will ultimately be what other powers will do in their own yards.

BRICS countries can concentrate on raw materials or innovate and set examples for other African/Asian/South American nations to bandwagon, but a crossroads is near and this is the ability of struggling major economies to express excellent politics.

In an effort to help Nial, I imagine that somewhere in January the third QE will be announced, the first QE also, and some safe areas coupled to no fly zones announced in Syria as a prelude to the new government paving the way for a better representation.

Of course it is much about Oil and the Mediterranean basin is full of it.

From here the coastal pipeline will be sometime inaugurated, and Hezbollah will reach an accord with the STL.

And who cares about the arms, when the role of this non state organization will become to guard from within the state a pipeline transiting energy to Europe.

The IRGC is an excellent expert in Oil transactions and it will help with its expertise Hezbollah to benefit from Lebanese fields, the price to pay will be to lose the Syrian strategic goose, but this is affordable.

Helping again on Nial, I say that an Iranian IRGC General will take command/be elected  and produce an illuminated Persian model that will focus on internal state reforms and set a creative Iranian role in world politics.  

Call him Mr Profile, who will get inspired by advancing arguments and consensus, he will lead by bravery and heart and express vision and devotion.

Realism against wishful thinking?

Intelligence agencies will project strong covert actions/sanctions against Iran but in the same time they will facilitate the access of an asset that will ensure stability in the Iranian prism.

World peace will be much better with 6 components, US 3^rd QE, EU 1^st QE, Arab spring success, Hezbollah deal with the STL, chinese/indian economic prosperity and Iranian vision.

Any analyst or military strategist working to foment disorder in Lebanon will find himself altering a status quo that will cost dearly all players, but most of all it will draw Hezbollah and the IRGC in the sinking ship of the Assad clan.

Beware Mr. Profile!

 “Riprendi il battito, che spesso ti si fermeranno i fluidi all’improvviso. Le gelate della contentezza, fiocchi.”

Thank you ,

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The crisis dissection

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Quite often, major challenges spur a new wind of creativity, nurtured with an objective analysis”

For beginners present world affairs might seem very complex and insurmountable, a dire strait, without exit.  

For veterans a return to basics is necessary to assess the complexity and define the cure.

For both veterans and beginners, the spirit matters, as if we deal with a situation having a losing mentality, we will be failing; by contrast a positive wellness will inevitably bring about solutions.

Therefore welcome to the crisis and to its understanding dissection.

Volumes were written about the origin of the economic crisis, placing it by some, in the universal army of the unemployed, or by the un-pegged dollar to gold, or finally by others in the deleveraging of loan banks to different sectors.

While the multifaceted origin is well described and very well illustrated, the solution is not clear and observers tend to criticize more than offering a viable approach.

There are three different areas to be supported, the US, the EU and the rest. 

As for the US, beyond any eloquent opposition, the fact is that two quantitative easing policies, although with their errors, held on the first world economy and crossed it through a major hurdle: the 2008 setback.

What come next in my perception are reforms in the taxation, in the social security and pensions, and in the entrepreneurial start up regulation. But this is not sufficient by itself even if the FED governor of Dallas seems more optimistic than others, the truth is that without a third quantitative easing dedicated to the principal reduction of real estate, I am afraid that global economy will lose a decade and we will be writing indefinitely to describe the pervasive mediocrity.

As for the EU, the requirement is to proceed with what we have.

Political changes in Greece and Italy will help, but the most important is to introduce flexibility in the labor market, merge banks and open borders to new waves of immigrants.

Above all to apply a quantitative easing policy by the ECB that will ease tensions and buy time for political reforms to be implemented. Beside a devaluation of the Euro to average 1.20 will be a realistic approach.

All the rest will be struggling to move forward, both China and India considered holding billion of citizens each will proceed to develop their industries and infrastructure, and resize or relocate some of their productions to meet new challenges.

Other BRICS countries will concentrate on raw materials or innovate, and other African/Asian/South American nations will bandwagon.

The advice is for these countries to create a special fund for emergencies in parallel to IMF and World Bank institutions to be initially debated in an Asian forum, to be at least prepared for future financial meltdowns. 

Touching on other delicate issues, it is clear that the Syrian Council has a major opportunity in the coming phase to show leadership and garner support, in order to display a new government that will replace the dictatorship of Assad.

Erosion and implosion of the gang in Damascus, are on the horizon and the Syrian people will rejoice an awaited fair representation.

What is unclear however, if a military action staged on Iranian nuclear facilities will impede this country from acquiring or deploying a weapon in the future. The best course and policy now is to create opportunities from inside Iran to exploit the different views and to derail/weaken the IRGC plans by strong covert actions.    

Those who will change or alter the status quo in the south of Lebanon will bear a big responsibility in history, and even if fully armed Hezbollah is sunken in irreversible bad mud. Lebanon should follow suit with progressive thinking and reform its system and find a home grown solution to international concerns.

“Distinction and identifying of different colors offers significance, learning and a vision”

Thank you ,

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