Greetings and Good Day,
“Whenever there is a concomitance of events, an intersection of interests will prevail”
Welcome to the crisis in its multifaceted forms.
In order to get into an insight of the global geopolitical environment, we need to have a better look at the anatomy of the crisis.
From one side there are automatic cuts on the US federal budget, a lack of US tax reform, an unidentified third QE, and from another side we have Euro area tensions and differences opposing two views versus the role of the ECB.
In the midst there is an ongoing Arab spring coupled to an Iranian effort to become nuclear and to the management of three heavy theaters (Iraq, Afpak and Syria).
Assuming that elections in the US will absorb the most significant efforts in geopolitics, these cannot stop the financial markets from acting.
Therefore pressure will persist on both policy makers and the FED to deliver a sound stability to promote growth, consumer spending and employment.
The margin of maneuver is always tighter, yet the FED can still inject a third QE, focused to support a special program for the principal reduction in real estate households, until a new administration and congress will deliver the required reforms in Taxation, Pensions, startup holiday regulation and health care.
Assuming by contrast, that Germany will not adopt a softer approach, to evolve the role of the ECB, from control of inflation to a lender of last resort; I am afraid that even the IMF will not be able to find the right mechanism to help Europe in its monetary crisis. If Europe doesn’t help itself ?
From here I am keen to consider the German Chancellor in front of a sole option and that is to lead Europe into a bifurcate mission, to print money through the ECB and to link with Russia to ensure a peaceful passage of energy on the continent.
While all countries will face challenges ahead, only collective interests will be a common denominator to find a plausible future scenario.
Nial Ferguson recently wrote a creative article about Europe in 2021 and in the meantime some commentators will probably differ with Stratfor’s and International Crisis Group‘s latest assessments about Syria.
In my perception there is only one route ahead and this a third QE in the US, a first QE in the EU, a demise of Assad in Syria and a rehabilitation of Indian and Chinese economies.
Many thinkers will find in the demise my weak point, but I will elaborate saying that many oil fields in Iraq will be exploited by Chinese, French and Russian companies, hence the latest harsh menaces of senior Russian or Iranian officials are to be considered in their context : rhetoric’s.
Is this really an incognito or can it be included in the interests prevalence thesis?
I say that the IRGC will never open a side theater, as it will risk its own survival, from here, it will watch silently the agony of Bashar and will eventually encourage Hezbollah to defend itself and find a deal with the STL verdicts.
From above we can easily affirm that in absence of decisive US and EU actions to adjust their own economies, much of the global institutions will acquire more fragility, encouraging hot heads to supersede collective interests in setting strategies.
Therefore the Iranian projection of power and sphere of influence will ultimately be what other powers will do in their own yards.
BRICS countries can concentrate on raw materials or innovate and set examples for other African/Asian/South American nations to bandwagon, but a crossroads is near and this is the ability of struggling major economies to express excellent politics.
In an effort to help Nial, I imagine that somewhere in January the third QE will be announced, the first QE also, and some safe areas coupled to no fly zones announced in Syria as a prelude to the new government paving the way for a better representation.
Of course it is much about Oil and the Mediterranean basin is full of it.
From here the coastal pipeline will be sometime inaugurated, and Hezbollah will reach an accord with the STL.
And who cares about the arms, when the role of this non state organization will become to guard from within the state a pipeline transiting energy to Europe.
The IRGC is an excellent expert in Oil transactions and it will help with its expertise Hezbollah to benefit from Lebanese fields, the price to pay will be to lose the Syrian strategic goose, but this is affordable.
Helping again on Nial, I say that an Iranian IRGC General will take command/be elected and produce an illuminated Persian model that will focus on internal state reforms and set a creative Iranian role in world politics.
Call him Mr Profile, who will get inspired by advancing arguments and consensus, he will lead by bravery and heart and express vision and devotion.
Realism against wishful thinking?
Intelligence agencies will project strong covert actions/sanctions against Iran but in the same time they will facilitate the access of an asset that will ensure stability in the Iranian prism.
World peace will be much better with 6 components, US 3rd QE, EU 1st QE, Arab spring success, Hezbollah deal with the STL, chinese/indian economic prosperity and Iranian vision.
Any analyst or military strategist working to foment disorder in Lebanon will find himself altering a status quo that will cost dearly all players, but most of all it will draw Hezbollah and the IRGC in the sinking ship of the Assad clan.
Beware Mr. Profile!
“Riprendi il battito, che spesso ti si fermeranno i fluidi all’improvviso. Le gelate della contentezza, fiocchi.”
Thank you ,
- The crisis dissection (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Report: Iran lawmaker says 12 CIA agents arrested (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Iran Threatens U.S. With “Crushing” Retaliation (papundits.wordpress.com)
- Report: Suspected CIA ‘spies’ captured in Iran (cnn.com)
- Hezbollah from Zenith to ? (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- The much needed action (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- The challenges of Hezbollah (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Transforming Iranian Guidance (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Trigger and Timing for the next WAR (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- The Arab Intellectuals Who Didn’t Roar (andrewazzopardi.org)
- Climate cycles are driving wars, says study (eurekalert.org)
- The King Jesuits Bible 1611: a 7 year homage to the god of deception, ambiguity and fraud (epinoiasphere.wordpress.com)
- An Iranian Spark in India by Marian Brehmer (somsirsa.wordpress.com)
- China to maintain tight monetary policy into 2012 – oh yeah? (ritholtz.com)
- Scanning the Horizon for the Ship ‘QE3’ (online.wsj.com)
- Desperate Middle East Regimes (papundits.wordpress.com)