The Iranian Watch Room

February 29, 2012

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Public debate can only advance knowledge, help avoid systemic errors and manage divergences in an effective approach”

In a last contribute before the upcoming meeting of the US president with the Israeli PM in Washington, a post meeting perspective should be drawn.

It is well known that a major topic will be the Iranian nuclear intentions and the assessment of the various options available to guarantee the US balancing interests and the Israeli national sacrosanct concerns.  

As my desire is to be very objective, I must admit that the malpractices of Israel in racism and unwillingness to pursue at any cost the peace accord with the Palestinians as essential strategy can be put aside.

This thought is possible if we consider the ME perspective with a shaken Israel, as having no deterrence, and paving the way for major confusion and conflicts in a geographic area identified by poverty, ignorance, economic distress and radicalism.

From above I consider the balancing interests of the US as marching hand in hand with a strong and secure Israeli entity and a peaceful Lebanon. The dilemma today is for both Israel and the US to term their tactical differences.

In the latest intelligence assessments it is filtered that the Iranian research in developing Uranium enrichment is not cruising at the appropriate speed, even if stockpiling is managing quantities sufficient to develop 4 or 5 weapons.

 The zone of immunity in reinforcing sites maybe reached shortly, but this same zone in research as a point of no return is not yet developed. Therefore if we take a picture today we can safely say that Iran has not the bomb, but it can anytime in the near future breach the nuclear proliferation.

Is the best course to strike military assets by Mid May? or to make it always costlier for the regime to proceed in the nuclear R&D? Do we have today an interlocutor? And who is this qualified partner having legitimacy in his own land?

The problem is that even if the US president and the Israeli PM will define a common denominator, it is not clear who will be the Iranian part that will be negotiating or contending the strategic duo.

My perception is that until 2014 no agreement can be put in place, always if no breach was achieved in proliferation, and if Mr Profile will be elected president, as I am advocating since some time, and as subtly evidenced by Mr Mahdi Khalaji in his “Supreme Succession” study.

Can we expect changes from the Majlis elections on March 2 ?  Perhaps yes, in terms of widening the national gap beween failed governance and desire to reform. 

In truth, the galaxies of Iranian internal politics do provide us with corrupted, fragmented and much divided elite; disaffected, uninterested, imprisoned political opposition and a crumbling, sanctioned economy.  

Yet this panorama that depicts the Iranian Islamic state in disarray as a symbol of governance can’t sustain the risk of a small armed minority holding the buttons of power in Iran putting at risk the entire structure and stability of the peaceful and energy generator Middle East.  

In a recent study and analysis of Joseph Nye and Michael Beckley related to the national power measurement and China’s rise, we have perhaps a scientific approach to be applied to Iran.

Where the Iranian Islamic state does stand today considering wealth, innovation, conventional military capabilities, power projection and cohesion of the national tissue?

What will be the effect of the strategic demise of the Syrian dictator in terms of Iranian power projection? Obviously a UNSC resolution paving the way for humanitarian corridors coupled to the objective of the demise of Assad by applying the ARAB plan is the only way forward, where both the US, the Friends of Syria, and Israel should join to deliver a post Assad Syria by the end of April.

What is the real attribute of an Iranian nuclear bomb in terms of national power measurement and altering irreversibly the geopolitical ME landscape by weakening the Israeli state security and deterrence?

Understanding the Israeli instinct, I must say that it is up to the US president to convince the Israeli PM that the US objective will be to impede the clan of the Supreme Leader to develop a bomb under any circumstance as this will jeopardize the US national power measurements in terms of connections and global reach.

Therefore the only way to make Israel desist from a complicated/original and innovative attack on Iranian objectives will be a potent Obama, having clarity of purpose, illustrating his intentions and ensuring to secure military credibility.

It is only when the US president will succeed in accrediting his strong views backed with a true and genuine determination to launch a global strategic attack at will to protect the interests of the world anytime, that the Israeli tension will relax.  

The American camp advocating only sanctions failed to introduce any solution to the problem, but succeeded in alimenting the polemic by raising critics from comfortable locations, as for the Israeli opposing camp advocating military strike it couldn’t perfect the equation of costs and benefits vis a’ vis the post strike management , hence we should find a compromise.

I propose to institute an Iranian watch room (ten members from both Israeli and US veterans), where monthly assessments will determine the evolution of the Iranian theater and will be required to update the joint policies.

This watch room will be semi public and will interact with the world opinion to inform and perform.

A second US/Israeli summit will follow in May.

My concern is that failure of the US president in the meeting at the White House will be hard to digest and its immediate consequences will be huge in terms of security and stability.

“There comes a day when potency should be expressed by power of will and by rational and substantial ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS, above all by concrete proposals and options “

Thank You,


Thought for Food

February 21, 2012

Thought for Food

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Iran Twitter Flag
Iran Twitter Flag (Photo credit: People’s Open Graphics)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Knowledge is the tool to put in place the right policies. Understanding subtleties and nuances will be a major element for wisdom”

Since the Islamic revolution in Iran, major divergences emerged between the Supreme Leader and the West, and these are based on two main branches: religion/dogma and governance.

For three decades now, if we supersede the Iran/Contras or prisoners/captives releases, nothing could be achieved in terms of rapprochement/overture, or political pragmatic deals.

While it is true that the regime in Tehran is seeking its own survival and pursuing a nuclear mastering for unknown scopes, it is also true that its strategic aim is to alter irreversibly the global governance.

The Soviet Union and China had divergences also with the West but they didn’t represent an unpredictable menace. There were declared and undeclared rules, there were clear lines, and all players were benefiting from the international institutions.

At present the Supreme Leader is circled by a radical entourage willing to exhaust Iran and to impose its view on the populations of the Middle East, through force and imposition rather than dialogue and understanding.

The regime in Tehran went through different phases since the war with Iraq and failure to follow the rigid evolution will generate a wrong synthesis.

The totalitarian desire to subdue the populace and impede them from expressing democratic representation is coupled to an intimate dogma to alter the values of other sovereign nations.

The struggle is long, yet it reached now a national security challenge, where developing a nuclear capability will represent a non return reality in the ME.

Perhaps the balancing game in geopolitics will permit the US to manage this easier than others, but from the perspective of other nations this is not acceptable.

Official and unofficial speakers on behalf of the US administration are committing a major error in failing to comprehend the reality post nuclear in Iran, as they are concentrated on the actual picture.

 This is not only about the survival of the Iranian regime it is about the implementation of politics and diplomacy, through the prism of tested International institutions.

The latest example is the second Greek bailout expressing the west models, as opposed to the Supreme leader achievements which are only to export weapons and violence, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.

These US representatives are much naïve to think that negotiation with the same Supreme Leader that eliminated Rafsanjani, Katami, Moussawi, Karroubi, and many others will lead somewhere.

Only great resolve and chocking the regime itself by dethroning the demon will bring results, paving the way for Mr. Profile a candidate from the inner circle of the IRGC officers will represent a valid opportunity, to stir the republic in a united purpose.

The supreme leader is a divisive concept in his own land, how can we seal agreements with him?

Defining the deal or grand bargain with the Supreme Leader is by itself meddling in internal Iranian politics.

Much thought for food for the planned meeting on March 5th.

The way ahead is to decide in the conference of Tunis, to significantly weaken the regime in Syria and to accelerate the demise of Assad by mid April.

It is also to benefit from the wide Iranian internal opposition to the Supreme Leader, and dethrone the demon from within.

Until the end of April if all these efforts will fail, there is only one and only way to proceed and this is the military strike on nuclear plants and a strategic destruction of assets that will enable an irrevocable change in Tehran.

 “Depicting the pragmatism of the demon, is illustrating false hope. Those who nurture dreams are not capable to fill the reality”

Thank you,

The US / Israeli Agreement

February 18, 2012

United (States) Parcel Service.

United (States) Parcel Service. (Photo credit: matt.hintsa)

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In proximity with policy deadlines, major nervousness emerges; the key is to manage the outcomes of the chosen options”

It is no secret that the world today is facing three major issues to be tackled in the coming month of March. 

The Iranian Majlis election coupled to the offer of talks with the 3 + 3, the Greek Bailout, and the Syrian ouster of Assad.

As regards the clan of Assad, the debate is exhausted and the intelligent solution for Bashar would be to negotiate a safe exile in Algeria or Russia. It is a fact that the Syrian theater will witness major changes by applying corridors and where the conspiracy in the military will heighten the chances of an internal coup or simply the escalation will lead to major defections that will end up by the demise of Assad.

Coming to the Second Greek Bailout, it is well known that this is a temporary therapy that will not address the fundamentals.

Although the Germans will relax their conditions, a second bailout without a renewed Greek social pact for prosperity will reveal to be a postponement.

The dilemma facing the finance ministers in Brussels will be to postpone the Greek Debt problem some time, working meanwhile for a homegrown new social pact?

Or to release the solo Greek maneuver into default and facilitate the introduction of a new Drachma seeking the support of the financial “Club of Athens” established on purpose to coordinate the Greek debt in terms of major pressure on China, Iran and Russia, generating pressure on the EURO zone?.

The first option will bull the markets in new records while the second will cut the recent gains by an expected 5 to 6 percent. 

But aren’t the markets going to have gain cuts anyway due to the Iranian nuclear research?

This brings us to the Israeli national security, a motive that brought the US administration to send the NSA director in a prolonged visit of 3 days to Tel AVIV.

It is highly likely that an agreement will be finally reached and this will be as follows:

Considering that today will witness the reprisal of popular protest in Iran, that the Majlis election is near, that the tactics in negotiation with the 3+3 is tested sufficiently, it is agreed that negotiation can restart only with representatives of Mr. Profile after the elimination of the demon throne.

Considering that the enlargement of the nuclear club in the ME will pave the way for unstoppable armaments and uncalculated & unforeseen risks , it is agreed that under no circumstance nuclear enrichment activity will be allowed to proceed further.

 Thus the SWIFT operation with Iranian transactions will stop as early as next week.

Whenever sanctions and financial pressures will not alter the internal Iranian equilibrium significantly by the end of April, already given US green light will allow Israel to go solo on a first strike tentatively on May 10th, as a prelude of major NATO operations against strategic targets.

Considering that accurate assessments can’t be envisioned in the military operations, but a worst case scenario can tell that several theaters will be involved and losses in assets and lives will occur, it is agreed that five to twelve days are required to impose favorable conditions on the cease fire.

With the blessing of humanity and the desire for love, peace will prevail and the conflicting interests will be resolved in a way or another for the benefit of the majority of human beings.    

“ Momenti difficili ci attendono e I maggiori sacrifici saranno richiesti, ma l’abbraccio degli uomini e delle donne salvera’ la vita e la pace. “

Thank you,  

The demon throne

February 16, 2012

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Sense-making in analysis necessitates the study of options and outcomes. Administrations holding options tend to maintain this behavioral advantage, while those dealing with outcomes tend to evolve into new geopolitical realities! “

We all know that the geographic area stretching from the Grand Middle East, to the Asian subcontinent is considered as the energy lungs of the world. 

The number of players involved in this area is large, where interests are defined on moving grounds and shifting strategic considerations.

As we are fast approaching the end of February the brutal and ruthless Syrian regime, killing its own people, can not terminate all civilians and many cities are still holding against the repression.

A vote at the General Assembly today will condemn the killers, and further pressures will build on Russia and China to pave the way for a biding UNSC resolution. Meanwhile the opposition military operations will proceed at an increasing phase and it is soon expected that protected geographic corridors will be established.

A northern corridor will be handled by Turkey and a southern one will be managed by Jordan.

During March and immediately after the visit of the Israeli PM to the US, the Syrian theater will have major intensity in military strategy where the brutal regime will be shaken further and the opposition unity will reach a tipping point to attract more defectors and upper level commanders.

Bashar will have two options expiring by mid April either to go to exile or to be eliminated.

In Turkey I met an Iranian lady and asked her who is more important for the Iranian peoples in absolute terms : Queen Soudabeh  Hakhamaneshian , Cyrus, Neda Soltaneh or Mr Khamenei ?

Her reply was Neda, Cyrus, Soudabeh, Khamenei.

As I asked her what can be the message she is willing to send the world on behalf of her nation ahead of the vote of March, she didn’t have anything to convey. She mentioned that the people is tired and doesn’t believe any more in anything. The opposition while not interest in the vote of the majlis, is holding a major demonstration on schedule for next saturday.

If it is true that nationalism can unite the Iranian mosaic components, it is also true that the biggest majority of Iranian society from all sides agree that Khamenei and the role of Supreme leader is not any more effective to the cause of the state.

This is a unique coincidence where Iranians unite for their nation and against the man behind the nuclear challenge.  Is this the prelude to the solution?  I say yes.

A covert action targeting Khamenei should be achieved, where he can lose control on a soap or lose weight due to an infection, or simply have an insecticide diluted in his tea, or else.    

I am convinced that the environment post-Khamenei will determinate much better conditions for peace, and understanding.

The shelling of Homs and the letter to the EU to restart talks with the 3 plus 3 will not be capable to alter the fate of the Arab Spring and the upcoming opportunities.

Bashar has only one way and this is to leave power with or without Chinese/Russian help, as much as Khamenei will also need to depart dead his demon throne.

Whenever attempts to move forward in Syria and Iran, either to exile or terminate Bashar, and eliminate the supreme leader, will be derailed, I am afraid that the only solution or option available will be the use of crude power and force.

Close to the NATO meeting in Chicago, tentatively on May 10th, opening Israeli multiple attacks will take place on Iranian nuclear assets, on Hezbollah and will buzz the presidential palace in Damascus dropping a load of bombs. A coalition of other nation’s military assets will follow up on consecutive sorties to define the political novelty.

What will follow will be a different Eurasian reality, that will secure prosperity and energy.

“ talvolta la perdita e il rischio si calcolano su scala grande e complessa, qualvolta invece tutto il rischio e la perdita si concentra su una o piu’ persone”

Thank you,  

Letter from Israel to the World

February 6, 2012

David Ben-Gurion (First Prime Minister of Isra...

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Arab boy in Akka, Israel
Arab boy in Akka, Israel (Photo credit: Adib Roy)

Dear World,

Greetings and Good Day,

“When patience and restraint are interpreted as weakness and dissolution, deterrence must be established and geopolitics driven to the front row “

The abstract of the inception of the state of Israel was to found institutions taking care of a community that will form a nation and administer self governance.

Although the location and the phases of the establishment of this state are debatable and generated a long conflict with Arab states, the fact remains that nowadays it is a reality.

Both Israel and Arab states hold responsibilities in failure to achieve peace.

Israel did many mistakes; it applied racist and arrogant policies, and could not genuinely reach out to the other.

Even though in front of historic challenges, it is only Israel that will be tenant of its own destiny.

Presently there are two major strategic instances generating a situation coupled to a lot of concern.

After the veto at the UNSC that impeded the Arab plan to support a peaceful transition in Syria, the thought of the state of Israel is that all efforts must be done to enable the Syrian people to accede to the natural rights and to the universal freedoms.

A full-fledged escalation will be witnessed and an upheaval will be the order of the day until a democratic regime will be established shortly in Syria.

The months of February and March will be the first regional part where a Syrian conflagration, will be pivotal to determine the change in Damascus by Mid April.

Battles will abound and a coalition of states will help the future of Syria and pave the way for its own people to possess the pulse of the national heart.

The second regional part will be somewhere between the first French presidential electoral turn and the first week of June.

This is when Iranian nuclear assets will be destroyed. The legal ground for attacking Iranian assets might be shaky but under any circumstance can the state of Israel afford another nuclear entity in the ME.

Therefore shortly before the “GO” on a Thursday night May 10th as a tentative date, squadrons of aircrafts without flags will be positioned together to logistics in some airports, in UAE, Qatar and in Saudi Arabia, from where simultaneous attacks will be launched.

Immediately after launching their loads, the aircrafts will be refueled over Iraq and then re-enter Israeli space.

Meanwhile the Israeli army as the aircrafts release their loads will have already commenced to enter Lebanon with 4 divisions, preempting any attempt by Hezbollah to sustain retaliation.

The Cedar nation will suffer temporarily but will regain it’s pursuing of reforms and national prosperity.

Hamas and Fatah will observe neutrality and receive Palestine as a righteous outcome.

I the state of Israel, herewith inform our allies and all powers of the world to be ready for this and in the specifics Israelis from both sides Orthodox and Liberals will long for the US, French, UK and German assets to be positioned and to finish the job that might take some more days to terminate a strategic destruction.

The Iranian regime will ask for a cease fire and conditions will be imposed to totally disarm the IRGC, where a new government in Iran will take place to take care of the beloved Iranian peoples.

One of the objectives will be the Supreme leader.

Definition of victory will be the declaration of the state of Palestine, the normalization and full peace with Lebanon, the departure of Assad in Syria and the establishment of modern governance, and finally the destruction of the assets of the IRGC and their supreme leader in Iran.

“The wrath of skilled power will descend on those who are destabilizing the advancement of world peace “

Thank you,

Significance of the resolution on Assad

February 2, 2012

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

 “Whenever the international body will disappoint in its performance, chaos will follow and violence will not be sedated “

Thinking from the prism of Putin, an aged strategist, who needs to repair his vision; one can moderately expect a major delay to word the UN resolution tackling the Assad’s clan bloody practices.

But why is it important for Putin, to support a unanimous resolution calling for Assad to go to exile and hand his powers to Mrs. Attar, who will form a unity cabinet and set free elections that will correspond to the Syrian population’s aspirations?

Putting first things first I say that the Russian administration should come to realize that their actual path is wrong to start a rapprochement with our views.

Although the Russian Ambassador at the UN is showing some positive signs to work on the wording he is still maintaining an erratic strategic vision as much as his FM and the Kremlin inner circles.

The Russian thought is to exit the stalemate in a conference where the killer will sit next to the people resorting to self defense, on the same geopolitical table.

Indeed a very tiny look at the theater of Syria without any understanding of the regional depth.

This is very shortsighted unfortunately.

I will not suggest the Russians to look into the Oil and gas interests or the warm waters or else, I will instead explain to them that the demise of Assad and his clan is absolutely in their national interests.

In truth the departure of Assad and the establishment of a new regime working on a democratic and stable Syria, will enforce the efforts of Putin to order his own house, will free the path for the new Iranian Majlis to resort to a unilateral moratorium in Nuclear enrichment, will dissuade the Israelis from pursuing a solo attack, and would at last but not least temper the west strategy of sanctions, diplomacy and visible military build-up.

In an equation of costs and benefits, keeping Assad will mean for Russia an extension of few months of disorder leading to major violence on all fronts, a certain strategic failure. While the exile of Assad in St Petersburg or in Sochi ,and the new Syrian equilibrium will mean an excellent Russian role co-brokering a leading phase in the Middle Eastern Affairs together to the US, the Arab League, Iran, Israel , India, Pakistan and China.

Paving the way for the unanimous UN resolution to oust Assad is of extreme significance for the future of Putin as a modern leader.

He can transform a liability into an opportunity and demonstrate he is capable of a charme offensive just ahead of the Munich conference, from which podium he used to lecture the chancelleries years ago.

Failure to act in the UNSC by passing a resolution asking plainly for Assad departure will mean setting the stage for the coming major war in the ME, by contrast acting in unison will be an overture of harmony that will encourage Russia and China to play a more concerted role for World peace, trying to convince Iran to be transparent in nuclear enrichment and Israel to announce an unprecedented nuclear downsizing.

Having still enough time, I expect the west to be patient and give time to the Russians, but I am surprised that no Israeli delegation, have sailed yet to Moscow lobbying for the UN resolution.

Ultimately if the cost for peace will be a bloody dictator living with family and friends in a Dacia in St Petersburg or in Sochi, this will be very acceptable for all parties involved.

Constantly the world interest is detached from the Assad Clan.

Putin true colors will soon appear.

“ Qualora la Russia non rispondera’ agli appelli, ella deve assumere le proprie responsabilita’ nell’inevitabile Guerra che arrivera’ a fine estate”

Thank you,