Syrian Bimonthly Check

January 30, 2012

syria

Iran Elections
Image by bioxid via Flickr

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“For some, it is unclear how an episode in a Syrian city, can influence the deployment of a floating base in the Persian Gulf! For others the Russian future is less than an enigma and more than a question mark “

As we are entering a very delicate phase in modern history, observers might be looking into indicators based on a time line and a convergence of signs that will generate a trend.

It is no secret that the area stretching from the greater Middle East to the South Eastern Asian continent rivets a primordial importance and will constitute an enormous challenge for chancelleries around the world to express power and to exert the game of the nations. 

To start effectively I will introduce the indicator called Syrian Bimonthly Check (SBC). This indicator will play a major role in determining the direction of events in global affairs in the coming period.

Bimonthly represents two months and therefore we are talking about the SBC 1 which is February /March 2012. How things will unfold in Syria during the coming two months is very important to understand how the entire ME saga will move forward.

In truth a carefully planned and encompassing “FSA” action against the falling house of Assad, will be pivotal to indicate to all players how they need to calibrate their moves on the chess board.

I presume that until Putin will go on a strategic rehab , the Russian stand will persevere in a useless defense of Assad, trying to mitigate apparent control of a destiny of demise. 

Russian interests will be best tutored if they rapidly converge with the US interests to create a transition that will put in place reforms and free general elections in Syria.

A diplomatic agreed solution in Syria will unavoidably help to defuse tension in the Gulf and guarantee the Russian interests also in Iran.  Presently Moscow is playing a losing game, defending all theaters, without sacrificing anything, a strategic suicide.

Russian priorities must be set and I am keen to consider that Putin has lost some shape in terms of geopolitical freshness. Russia’s future is to develop its demography, to open to Europe and to secure the energy routes and development worldwide.   

This leads us to Iran and to the Majlis election in March, where the new majority can declare a self imposed moratorium on nuclear research and reverse the tide of international tension for at least one year, paving the way for the Iranian presidential election to take place with a calm atmosphere in 2013.

Much depends on internal Iranian politics and the power distribution between different poles holding a fragmented and often contradictory decision making.

Obviously Israel will not only watch, but it will proceed vividly with the covert aspect to delay the research and to facilitate Mr. Profile, while preparing for the military option against Iran under two scenarios either solo or in conjunction to an alliance.  

Considering a given that Lebanon will maintain its neutrality and isolate itself from the growing effects of the Syrian theater, and this is for different circumstances.

The low profile tactics played by Hezbollah and the will of all leaders to exit the stalemate without significant losses, will enable Lebanon to walk the mine field intact.  

Hamas rotation towards moderate monarchies and its reach to the NPA will immensely support, a negotiated settlement for the state of Palestine living side by side with Israel, as the only desirable solution.  

The question is how will the Free Syrian Army war planners act and operate to benefit the most from the SBC 1? Assuming February will weaken further the Assad clan, how we can develop synergy in March?  Which tools will reactivate and reassert the Syrian popular movement demands?

If it is true that on the long run, the vision is clear that Iran should halt or transfer enrichment and divert its resources to verifiable civil purposes, and to define a grand bargain with the US, it is also true that on the short run we need to augment the cost for Iran to keep the current path, both by increasing denting sanctions and by a military build-up.

Red lines should be clear, miscalculation avoided, and Israel discouraged to act solo to avoid a Masada replica.

We will also need to keep scrutiny on Iranian internal politics and dose the Syrian demise at a monitored slow motion until the end of SBC 2.

For the time being the agony of Bashar is playing well into the interests of all parties until a defined agreement is developed.

From here the prediction is that the International and global power that will succeed to manipulate best the Syrian theater until the end of May, will manage best the geopolitical outcome in the fall.

“ Udite , udite, la folla acclama e gli interessi degli stati e dei popoli sono sulla bilancia “

Thank you,  

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The Second Revolution in Diplomatic Affairs

January 9, 2012

English: Military expenditure (%GDP), Iran.

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Sattar Khan, a famous azerbaijani-irani revolu...
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English: US dollar/Iranian rial exchange rates...
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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Whenever oriental wisdom will falter, it is duty of the west to widen the thoughts and facilitate illuminated leaders”

In my last posts, I explained about the need of the emergence of Mr. Profile in Iran.

I also elaborated about the expected divergent economic development in the US and Europe in 2012, which ironically will serve the interests of both on the long run.

Looking in retrospect to the dissection of the global crisis, and after widely tackling the Euro and the principal reduction in US households, it is my conviction that events might seem preceding analysts in determining the direction of the geopolitical developments.

From above I will assume that oriental wisdom is absent at the moment, and that the west must react in front of this scenario, and exert significant guidance in global affairs.

It is no secret that the healing US economy still in need of further intervention in the households, coupled to expanded pressure on Iran, together to Iranian military drills and US deployments in Israel, will put on collision course different players involved in a war which remained so far “cold”.

If it is true that we are in the winter season and this by itself is sufficient to scale back any collision until the spring end, it is also true that absence of any direct communication between contenders might lead to miscalculation.

Building up power is not by itself the sole indicator of collision.

One can propose the introduction of an indirect red line between Washington and Tehran that will be reliable and channeling urgent messages, exerted by an NGO or a philanthropic organization such as International Crisis in Brussels or an affiliated to the Japanese Nomura.    

So assuming we will avoid miscalculation, and we will get to the spring end, hawks may well seize the American elections and press for a focused intervention, especially now that Iran announced its intention to develop nuclear activities in Fordow Mountains. 

But I am very keen to think that the US president, will not under any circumstance give an order of a global strike if not American interests are harmed at first.

Israel will not attack solo.

This leads me to affirm that in 2012 there will be no military confrontation between the US and Iran , rather a grand bargain in the making, details of which will take time to be finalized and it will not be possible to achieve before 2014, much after the Iranian presidential elections that will reveal Mr. Profile in 2013.

Although sanctions will bite deeply the Iranian economy and the demise of the Assad clan will bring havoc to the Iranian expansionist dreams, at the end, the interests of the balancing politics in the Middle East will prevail as a major projection for US global leadership.

Israel should be much aware about this, and understand that even nuclear regional powers are doomed to coexistence. The best choice for the state of Israel is to act swiftly and to enhance relations with the Arab world, through the declaration of the state of Palestine.

Israel needs also to be constantly vigil and do all possible covertly to retard Iranian research and facilitate Mr. Profile. 

Therefore in the coming trimester we will witness an increasingly deteriorating dramatic environment in Syria leading to the major geopolitical change in the Middle East and this will be the absolute balancing act in the modern history, where all powers will need to set a Versailles like formula.  

Mr. Kissinger a connoisseur may well decide to write an article about this, the Modern Versailles.

Historians, diplomats, researchers and professors of caliber are all invited to contribute.

Veterans and Institutes should start elaborating studies about the effects of Iran secretly developing a nuclear weapon and the limits of owning a deliverable and accurate vehicle, but also about the establishment of a new Syria and the mechanism that will affect international relations after this prospect will materialize.

There should certainly be limits and costs deriving from being a nuclear regional power and these should be highlighted, the same as any new leadership in Damascus will be required to deliver satisfaction to a large number of international policy makers.

International and regional powers will gather momentum to act in coordination to manage a crisis room in the Middle East, which will largely pave the way for the stability in the Eurasian theater and the US leadership gathering further pace after two successful withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan.  

In parallel a thorough approach should invoke the scenarios ahead for the Syrian demise and what are the real options of a post Assad era, based on the populace managing their own destinies.

Unfortunately Assad will likely refuse to apply for an exile, and will prefer to resist until force will bring him down before the end of May 2012.  

It is of absolute clarity that the Central Asian zone and the Eastern Mediterranean, with both their Oil and Gas interests will acquire primacy in global affairs.

Nothing can bring war or peace as money, and this also leads me to realize two things.

The first is that Hezbollah will manage its court defense and make sacrifices to exit the STL legal issue, to enable the Iranian regime to maintain its cards in the Lebanese arena.

I predict also that Hezbollah will resort to a sort of arms control formula under the Lebanese state aegis to ensure an excellent balancing game.

Dialogue is the only Lebanese option, and peace is the sole outcome on the Lebanese/Israeli border with or without a separation wall.

The second is that Arab Monarchies and Israel will not push further, as they will be coming under pressure from the US, because the name of the game will be to balance all interests and exploit the opportunities.

Looking from a bird view prism, international politics in 2012 will deliver an ascendant economy in the US and a deteriorating one in the rest of the world which is an excellent scenario for peace on the long run.

The world will prepare itself for an evolving chess board on the same theater stretching between central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Two regional competitors Iran and Israel will grow uneasy but will develop co-existence alike the Korean peninsula, even if an analogy doesn’t apply.

International brokers such as the US, Russia and China will exploit the various possibilities in an ever fluctuating oriental market of goods and energy.

Mastering this new scenario, will advance politics in an unexplored field, and conferences should flourish to bring about a new wave of experts and diplomats, call it “The Second Revolution in Diplomatic Affairs”.

Military research and academies will develop new weapons, teach preparedness and strategies.

Intelligence agencies will weigh the exact connotation of supporting the policy makers with analyses and information to advance the interests of prosperity, trade and peace.

However the recommendation is for all to watch out false steps and to facilitate “Mr.Profile”.

“ L’arte dell’espressione, la continua elaborazione di sginificati, la comprensione del possible, la logica del senso, la cosmica della saggezza e la forza della preparazione. Il ballo del pensiero e della mente. ”

Thank you,