Hallelujah

November 24, 2013

Hallelujah (Leonard Cohen song)

Hallelujah (Leonard Cohen song) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

” Receptive: Ready or
willing to receive favorably: receptive to their proposals

I will start by dedicating the song of Bon Jovi, ( Hallelujah ) to all humanity for the announced agreement between the P5 plus 1 and Iran.

In truth while apparently on the surface it seems that Mr. Khamenei had it both ways with presidents Ahmadinejad and Rouhani , the west might seem that it had it neither way.

In this opening of complex negotiations, Iran scored one and the west scored none. It is sufficient to observe the tape of secretary Kerry to underline a contradiction. Everyone will defend the stance to be a win-win and in fact it is, whenever the comprehensive agreement will be reached by the end of February.

From a realistic view, Iran maintains the centrifuges spinning in Natanz and Fordow, while it obtained de facto ease on sanctions.

The west obtains a cap on Arak and on the further development of 20 percent enriched Uranium with no mention on the hidden existing stockpiles and the roll forward of low enriched Uranium.

Again the duty of common sense is to be receptive and cooperative although cautious.

Much will remain to be seen and a lot will require much support and watch.

In Arabic they say “Mish awalti , a5irti” , not the beginning but the end .

What is interesting is the evolution of the US strategic approach, from willing to struck a deal and run, as per captain Jack Sparrow teachings in the pirates , a fiction leading nowhere; to sticking around and willing firmly to define the whole framework in a responsible attitude, much like Fischer the chess master .

From tomorrow a lot of work will need to be done and peace lovers will help, including Israel and Lebanon, two Canaanite nations with desire to express guidance to peace.

“Cautious: Tentative or restrained; guarded: felt a cautious optimism that the offer would be
accepted”

Thank you,

 


OIL @ 250 or the only option today?

November 22, 2013

United States

United States (Photo credit: Moyan_Brenn)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

“The experience of “beauty” often involves an interpretation of some entity as being in balance and harmony with nature, which may lead to feelings of attraction and emotional well-being. Because this can be a subjective experience, it is often said that “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Wikipedia

It is a source of comfort that the negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, will set a comprehensive agreement as a new objective.

The interim deal concept is wrong and it was generating much instability, whatever its nature could be.

This instability was likely leading to a unilateral Israeli decision, that would have as side effects a direct confrontation between Iran, Iraq and KSA, sending Oil prices to 250 $.

In fact the interim deal brokered by Russia, would disrupt the US strategy in the ME applied for decades, sending Oil prices to skyrocket and disrupting supplies as per Iranian/Gulf Monarchies clashes.

I am happy though that we saved the USA twice, the first time by trading the attack on Syria with the CW dismantlement keeping in place the objectives of building on Geneva 1, with a transitional government in Syria without Assad. And the second time by trading the interim deal with a strategic comprehensive agreement to be discussed, yet as per the vision already enunciated on the pages of this same blog.

In my view, considering the shrinking population and working force in Russia, and adding the OIL and Gas exports contribution to the GNP, we can easily understand how an interim agreement will be in the best interest of Russia mainly, more than any commercial deal thought by western corporations.

Above all the US administration should also consider that an interim deal would have thrown Gulf Monarchies and Israel alike, in the hands of China which is a great power, suffering a major economic setback from high Oil prices.

The interim deal could blow the US policy of an Asian/Pacific pivot before it takes the required contour, by opening a massive Chinese network in the Mediterranean. The US would have lost its queen in the first openings of the Chess pacific pivot.

From above we can easily realize that while Russia and China will benefit from the interim deal, in different manners, the US would need to deploy costly assets to adjust for a Status- Quo ante, a Dietro – front futile and unnecessary in all cases.

So here comes the Global/US interest in pursuing a comprehensive agreement with Iran, within 3 months, and failure to do this will portray the US in a plan B consisting of further tightening of harsh sanctions.

The only option today is to amplify the diplomatic reach for 3 months until end of February, in a strong desire to achieve a comprehensive agreement.

The beauty of life .

Life is a characteristic that distinguishes objects that have signaling and self-sustaining processes from those that do not, either because such functions have ceased (death), or else because they lack such functions and are classified as inanimate. “ Wikipedia

Thank You,

.

 


Hope and Belief

November 18, 2013

English: Israel & Iran Flages

English: Israel & Iran Flages (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

“Hope is the state which promotes the desire of positive outcomes related to events and circumstances in one’s life or in the world at large” Wikipedia

 

It is a fact that both the US and Iran are going through dire economic woes, obliging both countries to search, for the best suitable bilateral deal, that will project each nation in its designed strategic approach, while  pursuing their own national interests.

 

The financial easing in the US since Chairman Greenspan, was perhaps genuinely seeking to spur growth, yet the grave effects of the housing bubble produced an unprecedented and still enduring crisis.

 

Whenever we add to this bubble, the mismanagement of the Iraq post-intervention and the disastrous effects of the US corporate outsourcing, here we are in the actual job crisis showing no sign of recovery.

 

At this stage and after huge easing, what the FED needs to do is to taper in a gradual and predictable pattern, simply because the cure is not anymore through financial remedy, rather it is by a wide reform of the system, and a better distribution of the richness.

 

What is on demand, is a new generation of small and middle enterprises, run by young entrepreneurs, that have both hope and belief, and that they can change and reform an American system that is standing still.

 

Regulations, relaxations and taxation are the key to move forward, and this can be done only when young representatives will gain the trust of the people.

 

In Iran, the nuclear research is considered to be a pillar of the national security, imposed by the aftermath of the Iraq/Iran war, hence immense resources are spent on this project. The nuclear project is leading, to economic disarray, to a chaotic power projection and to an isolation of major proportions.

 

From a strategic and diplomatic stand point, there might be commonality between the US/Iran today and the US/China during the Nixon presidency, however the imperfect analogy is much imperfect.

 

China had a bordering foe in the USSR and it had a nuclear status. By contrast, Iran yesteryear’s foe (Iraq) dissolved and it is still working incessantly, to enter with minimum cost the nuclear club.

 

The analogy is more evident, in the desire of both Iran and Israel to be secure, and this mortal insecurity is leading the ME into an apocalyptic scenario.

 

Israel from one side, willing to disintegrate the crescent and Iran from another, willing to impose a Persian strategic concept, through a Shiite revisited dogma.

 

The US adds fuel, by its own interpretation of the national interest, where pivoting to Asia/Pacific in tandem with disengaging from the ME, represents the policy of the current administration.

 

A US policy thought to lower costs and to advance growth and jobs at home, even if results are tardy to be manifested and achieved.

 

In view of the disorder in the crescent, and the geopolitical importance of the Caspian, the US shift to the Pacific will alter significantly the global equilibrium for a decade or so.

 

The US is caught between a rock and a hard place; from one side being very close to oil sufficiency doesn’t strengthen it on the short run. Apparently the US international maneuver by exiting the ME will inevitably enforce other powers, e.g. China, Russia or France. And from another side, it will endanger the security needs of its regional friends and allies mainly Egypt, Gulf Monarchies, Pakistan, Israel and Lebanon.

 

While seeking to play a balancing role, in truth the US is failing to produce a stable model in a delicate area. The US is today visibly shifting towards seeking any deal to exit the ME.

 

We know that there is a perfect deal, a practical deal and a foul’s deal. France is working on a 4 points deal which is very effective, to be introduced on November 20th in Geneva.

 

Obviously this scenario of a US deal at any cost with Iran to exit the ME, will mean the rise of the rest on the middle run, be these Russia, China, Iran, Israel, France or the trio Pakistan/Egypt/KSA.

 

It is unclear in this crucial phase how things will develop, yet the hope is that the US withdrawal will not cause the same chaos that was witnessed in Vietnam years ago, or in Iraq and in Afghanistan recently.

 

A tragedy of unknown proportions is in the making, where refugees and disorder will embark in the Levant from Sana’a to Tashkent.

 

Ramifications of instability will touch presumably an immense geographic arc. The Russians will exploit the Mediterranean, the Iranians will vigil on Hormuz, the Chinese will revive the Silk Road; and the Israelis will try to create a stable network to replace their constant game of disintegration.

 

The Syrian theater will continue to be a platform of confrontation until we reach Geneva 7 or 9 perhaps. The US will develop ties to the Pacific while maintaining traditional ones with the Atlantic.

 

Therefore the US “wings” grand strategy (Atlantic /pacific) will eclipse the global superpower status De-Facto.

 

From above we can assume in 2014 some emerging possible definitions:
US a wings power, Russia a Mediterranean broker, Iran a Hormuz gendarme, Israel a regional unilateral spoiler, France an outsourced power for the Iranian nuclear file, China a market economy with 2 kids, India an incubator of web innovations, Japan a recovering economy, Germany a power seeking an international positioning and KSA an oil producer searching for a consequential evolution.

 

The moving global panorama will alter the game of the nations and will reshuffle the cards in hand of many players.

 

Lebanon will need to strengthen its internal edifice to face the geopolitical earthquakes by forming a cabinet, by approving an electoral law, by electing a new president and a new parliament, by reforming the state, by boosting the army’s capability and finally by recovering the economy.

 

The point is that unless the US will couple to its wings policy a corpus that represents global responsibility, it will never fly. In fact old concepts of national interest are misplaced, a fashion of obsolete schools of thought, wings without a corpus are only wings and will not express economic recovery, leave alone global governance.

 

How will the US decipher its own path to recover and guide responsibly? This will be a major hurdle in international affairs.

 

Outsourcing was a historic option since the days of King Hiram of Tyre.

 

Hope and belief are posed in a young generation of US entrepreneurs who will gain the favor of the US public and introduce long-awaited reforms and farsighted strategy.

 

“Belief is the psychological state in which an individual holds a conjecture or premise to be true” Wikipedia

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


The Deal – Vision

November 11, 2013

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva ...

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) Français : Armoiries du canton de Genève (Suisse) Deutsch: Wappen des Kantons Genf (Schweiz) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I lost the love of heaven above, I spurned the lust of earth below, ………. In every language upon earth, on every shore, o’er every sea, …. and kept my spirit with the free.” A Vision by John Clare

It is a source of comfort to learn that the desire to reach an agreement between the contenders in Geneva will continue in next rounds of talks. As we know these talks date since many years, with ups and downs and it is high time now, to express a vision with principles and guidelines under which umbrella the framework of the phased agreements will be reached.

The vision is very simple, where it stands for acceptance, solidarity and respect. Each nation in the Middle East will commit to accept and recognize fully the other nations, including Israel, Palestine and Iran. Each nation will commit to express a state policy based on solidarity and sharing where a system of regional security will be emerging and finally each nation will respect the peaceful desire of growth within an open borders strategy of ideas and goods free of WMD threats.

Aligning negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran will enable all players to express a phased route projecting the populations of the entire area into an era of peace.

I envisage three phases stretching on a time frame of 3 years.

The first phase, will define nuclear interim agreement one in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 2 for the Syrian Crisis, it will resolve the Lebanese standoff and the Iraqi instability.

The second phase, will define nuclear interim agreement two in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 3 for the Syrian Crisis, and it will define the final status in the Israeli / Palestinian Conflict.

The third and final phase, will define the nuclear agreement in Geneva, it will convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and it will finalize talks for regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.

In the first phase, the nuclear interim agreement ONE in Geneva to be implemented by Dec 25 can consist of the immediate verifiable shutdown of Iran’s Arak heavy-water reactor in exchange for the release of 25 billion USD of Iranian accounts. On a separate track Geneva 2 will be called to convene by January 20 where humanitarian corridors, release of prisoners and a cessation of hostilities will be announced, the Syrian opposition will be represented by the new prime minister and a large and inclusive delegation. On another separate track a Lebanese neutral cabinet composed by 10 independents will be formed and will supervise the new electoral law, and the presidential election of Mr. Jean Kahwaji to proceed with the path of giving the Lebanese army the necessary time to be in charge of the cedar nation. Lebanese general elections will take place in September 2014. On another track an Iraqi sharing system of governance will be defined in a national conference Baghdad 1 where participation in the decision making will be open to all communities.

In the second phase, the nuclear interim agreement TWO in Geneva, will consist of the unilateral declaration by the Iranian nuclear agency that a cap of 80 KG will be applied on the quantity of 20 % enriched Uranium held on Iranian territory at any given time, measures will be put in place by the IAEA to verify by March 20. International Powers will release all held Iranian Bank accounts and ease sanctions on precious metals. On a separate track Geneva 3 will be called to convene within April 20 and a political transition, expressed by a national cabinet will be declared where there will be no space for the Assad clan. The final status of talks to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian conflict will take shape by August 2014 and a map with temporary borders will be accepted, the viable and sovereign nation of Palestine will be born. Jerusalem will have an international status under common and rotating administration. The state of Israel will have all kind of assurances that the citizens of Israel and the Jewry worldwide will be in amenity in a homeland.

In the third and final phase, the nuclear agreement in Geneva finalized by September 30, will consist of the Iranian Petroleum Agency announcing its desire to coordinate a plan of investment for gas exploitation in tandem with an international private consortium.  International powers will release all sanctions and will support the full membership of Iran in the WTO. On a separate track Iran and the US will be the sponsors to convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and this will be coupled by talks on enhancing regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.  The main purpose will be to guarantee the security of Israel, the support of growth in Palestine, the diplomatic projection of Iran and its acquisition of a middle power status. Gulf Countries will act as facilitators and true believers in peace.

    “ I have not walked on common ground, Nor drunk of earthly streams; ……. Life is a race fore-run; Look in his face a little while, and life and death are one.” Vision by Marjorie Pickthall

     Thank You,

 


How Bad a Deal ?

November 8, 2013

This wall painting depicts a scene from a 17th...

This wall painting depicts a scene from a 17th century classical Iranian music ensemble. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Something that is bad is unpleasant, harmful, or undesirable... Analysts fear the situation is even worse than the leadership admits”.  From the Reverso Dictionary, on Bad Deal  

There is a growing consensus that the FED monetary policies, by now, should start giving a boost to the real economy, and not nurture anymore the upcoming bubble in the Stock Exchange. If it is true that what was done so far, was the only unconventional option at hand of a public actor, although privately owned, it is also true that a wise maneuver of tapering in a predictable and gradual way as soon as January ( 5 billion) , will reveal to be a very effective step to enhance the entire US economic architecture.

Architecture! A beautiful word used often nowadays to inform that the sanctions applied on Iran by the world powers are thought within a logic and a built structure. The amazing and fascinating thing is to understand how the architects will develop the plan where “ Iran, as a first step, will stop its nuclear program advancing any further and start rolling parts of it back; and in return the US will enact very limited, temporary and reversible sanctions relief”.

Any devised plan/deal as analysts understand, that will be announced today in Geneva, will be bad, yet they need to figure out and presage how bad it will be.

It is understood that any nuclear deal between the (US plus other powers) and Iran today, will be very bad, mainly because it will respond to the forces in place between the two opposed camps. Both the US and Iran accuse fatigue, dizziness, power shamble after decades of enmity in the New fragmented Middle East and they both look to limit damage and loss as a mutual convenience.

Hence apparently there will be a grand fanfare for a deal that isn’t.

The plan technically will resemble a PR campaign following the CW Syrian example, where much of the results will be an intrigue to decipher.

Either Iran will block its activity to a certain date in exchange for some sanctions relief albeit reversible, or the Syrian regime will benefit from a temporary moratorium in exchange for a CW secretly conducted destruction, in both cases main issues will not be resolved.

The Iranian role in the world today and its projection of soft power will require an illuminated vision by a strong leadership, as much as the Syrian population will need an international conference to make up a transitional cabinet, that will start the route for a reformed system of governance, based on homegrown principles and pillars of acceptance and governance sharing.

Assad will try to maintain his power base, but butchers of their own populations will not have any place in any future of respectable nations.

Apparently the weakness of main players is an asset for peace lovers, as this will impede any large conflagration from developing in the ME, however this same weakness is a major liability for entire populations, as it will maintain the entire architecture of instability floating in an area, which is in dire need of good deals to be negotiated and implemented.

What can be the view after the deal, vis a’ vis several issues related to the Geopolitics of the ME? At first it is rational to realize that a very bad deal still to be announced by the US and Iran will be the first deal, secondly that the Russian role is manipulating the US weakness to a major extent, thirdly that the upcoming stage where stability/instability will be brought by a variegated group of weak international players is by itself the base to compare it with an urban monster.

The thought of all players is to deliver an edifice, shaking as it is, yet a meaningful fact that architects of non confrontation, (by itself a non policy   leading nowhere),  are at work.

How true political solutions will develop in the ME, is about the mystery that the depth of badness will reveal to be in the upcoming deal.

Vision on demand!

“1vi·sion: mode of seeing or conceiving (2):  unusual discernment or foresight <a person of vision>” Merriam Webster Dictionary

Thank you,