English: Israel & Iran Flages (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Greetings and Good Day,
“Hope is the state which promotes the desire of positive outcomes related to events and circumstances in one’s life or in the world at large” Wikipedia
It is a fact that both the US and Iran are going through dire economic woes, obliging both countries to search, for the best suitable bilateral deal, that will project each nation in its designed strategic approach, while pursuing their own national interests.
The financial easing in the US since Chairman Greenspan, was perhaps genuinely seeking to spur growth, yet the grave effects of the housing bubble produced an unprecedented and still enduring crisis.
Whenever we add to this bubble, the mismanagement of the Iraq post-intervention and the disastrous effects of the US corporate outsourcing, here we are in the actual job crisis showing no sign of recovery.
At this stage and after huge easing, what the FED needs to do is to taper in a gradual and predictable pattern, simply because the cure is not anymore through financial remedy, rather it is by a wide reform of the system, and a better distribution of the richness.
What is on demand, is a new generation of small and middle enterprises, run by young entrepreneurs, that have both hope and belief, and that they can change and reform an American system that is standing still.
Regulations, relaxations and taxation are the key to move forward, and this can be done only when young representatives will gain the trust of the people.
In Iran, the nuclear research is considered to be a pillar of the national security, imposed by the aftermath of the Iraq/Iran war, hence immense resources are spent on this project. The nuclear project is leading, to economic disarray, to a chaotic power projection and to an isolation of major proportions.
From a strategic and diplomatic stand point, there might be commonality between the US/Iran today and the US/China during the Nixon presidency, however the imperfect analogy is much imperfect.
China had a bordering foe in the USSR and it had a nuclear status. By contrast, Iran yesteryear’s foe (Iraq) dissolved and it is still working incessantly, to enter with minimum cost the nuclear club.
The analogy is more evident, in the desire of both Iran and Israel to be secure, and this mortal insecurity is leading the ME into an apocalyptic scenario.
Israel from one side, willing to disintegrate the crescent and Iran from another, willing to impose a Persian strategic concept, through a Shiite revisited dogma.
The US adds fuel, by its own interpretation of the national interest, where pivoting to Asia/Pacific in tandem with disengaging from the ME, represents the policy of the current administration.
A US policy thought to lower costs and to advance growth and jobs at home, even if results are tardy to be manifested and achieved.
In view of the disorder in the crescent, and the geopolitical importance of the Caspian, the US shift to the Pacific will alter significantly the global equilibrium for a decade or so.
The US is caught between a rock and a hard place; from one side being very close to oil sufficiency doesn’t strengthen it on the short run. Apparently the US international maneuver by exiting the ME will inevitably enforce other powers, e.g. China, Russia or France. And from another side, it will endanger the security needs of its regional friends and allies mainly Egypt, Gulf Monarchies, Pakistan, Israel and Lebanon.
While seeking to play a balancing role, in truth the US is failing to produce a stable model in a delicate area. The US is today visibly shifting towards seeking any deal to exit the ME.
We know that there is a perfect deal, a practical deal and a foul’s deal. France is working on a 4 points deal which is very effective, to be introduced on November 20th in Geneva.
Obviously this scenario of a US deal at any cost with Iran to exit the ME, will mean the rise of the rest on the middle run, be these Russia, China, Iran, Israel, France or the trio Pakistan/Egypt/KSA.
It is unclear in this crucial phase how things will develop, yet the hope is that the US withdrawal will not cause the same chaos that was witnessed in Vietnam years ago, or in Iraq and in Afghanistan recently.
A tragedy of unknown proportions is in the making, where refugees and disorder will embark in the Levant from Sana’a to Tashkent.
Ramifications of instability will touch presumably an immense geographic arc. The Russians will exploit the Mediterranean, the Iranians will vigil on Hormuz, the Chinese will revive the Silk Road; and the Israelis will try to create a stable network to replace their constant game of disintegration.
The Syrian theater will continue to be a platform of confrontation until we reach Geneva 7 or 9 perhaps. The US will develop ties to the Pacific while maintaining traditional ones with the Atlantic.
Therefore the US “wings” grand strategy (Atlantic /pacific) will eclipse the global superpower status De-Facto.
From above we can assume in 2014 some emerging possible definitions:
US a wings power, Russia a Mediterranean broker, Iran a Hormuz gendarme, Israel a regional unilateral spoiler, France an outsourced power for the Iranian nuclear file, China a market economy with 2 kids, India an incubator of web innovations, Japan a recovering economy, Germany a power seeking an international positioning and KSA an oil producer searching for a consequential evolution.
The moving global panorama will alter the game of the nations and will reshuffle the cards in hand of many players.
Lebanon will need to strengthen its internal edifice to face the geopolitical earthquakes by forming a cabinet, by approving an electoral law, by electing a new president and a new parliament, by reforming the state, by boosting the army’s capability and finally by recovering the economy.
The point is that unless the US will couple to its wings policy a corpus that represents global responsibility, it will never fly. In fact old concepts of national interest are misplaced, a fashion of obsolete schools of thought, wings without a corpus are only wings and will not express economic recovery, leave alone global governance.
How will the US decipher its own path to recover and guide responsibly? This will be a major hurdle in international affairs.
Outsourcing was a historic option since the days of King Hiram of Tyre.
Hope and belief are posed in a young generation of US entrepreneurs who will gain the favor of the US public and introduce long-awaited reforms and farsighted strategy.
“Belief is the psychological state in which an individual holds a conjecture or premise to be true” Wikipedia