June 22, 2010

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ The US modern Grand Strategy of peacefully partnering with Russia and concerting with China is the only opening for an era of sound global governance”

While the world citizenry is still looking with apprehension to the developments of the economic crisis in markets linked to the USD, the EURO and other protagonist currencies, governments are working to contain the debt either by setting austerity goals in their fiscal budgets or by expanding their growth.

Targets might differ from decreasing the debt by one third in 3 years to one fourth in 5 years, still the requirement is one and that is to transform waste into wealth and to impede the deficit and debt duo from playing down the recovery in start ups and productivity output.

Sources of comfort are the Chinese decision to float their currency, pressed by both the Lewis turning point in manufacturing and the widening gap between Chinese production, labor cost and inflated asset value.

Other timid sources of easiness are the relaxing of the land blockade on Gaza and the postponement of the Battle of Kandahar. There is also the check and balances emerging policies exerted by middle power nations such as Brazil, Turkey, India, Japan and Vietnam.

One is tempted to call the upcoming era “Pax Collettiva”, where many positive indicators can be found and elaborated in this new mechanism of international freshness. In fact the talented outcome will boost and perfect the post WWII equilibrium and will set an advanced phase in global trade. The rational will be the phase two in out-sourcing, in off-shoring of multinationals, in currency mergers, and in extended areas of operations for several armies in cooperation.

Pivotal will always be, ongoing high education, delivery of international aid, monitoring of labor migration and effectiveness of the citizenry in getting involved in world affairs.

How can the US “partenariat” with Russia, its concert with China, its economic management leading to full recovery and the FED expanded role referring to an independent body; spur peace, democratic stability and prosperity in the geopolitics stretching from China to Portugal is in advanced making.

It is understood that expanding exports in goods and services, diversifying energy sources, widening markets with transparent regulations, wise distribution of richness and imposition of taxes and inserting skilled immigration are few fundamental steps in the right direction of “Pax Collettiva” .

Following the fourth round of approved sanctions, against the aggressive policies of the Iranian regime exporting instability and expanding its area of bad influence, one can only think that a helpful hand to these sanctions is coming from the European council and the US congress adding further measures. But visible is also the Turkish/Saudi/Syrian roles increasing their influences at the expenses of the IRGC.

In truth the Turkish foreign policy while on the surface is positioned on a different set versus Ataturk teachings, in terms of benefits its immediate results are the diminishing influence of the Iranian guards. The same goes for the Saudi increasing role in becoming the gulf pole for economic expansion and the Syrian balanced return to exert positive influence in the Lebanese arena.

It is a fact that the US offensive/defensive build up in course in the gulf and other measures enabling the Iranian mainstream to access international communication, will put the Iranian guards in a difficult position at the start of the nuclear swap talks coupled to the wish list thought to restart in July. At this stage events can unfold only in one direction which is a deal with the guards accepted by International powers or else a severe confrontation. Even a surprise natural clock, announcing succession to the ailing supreme leader will not stop the course of upcoming events.

So who will open the dance in July and how?

I already described the US modern grand strategy as evolving its role from dancer to ballerina, and this means that the dance opening can only come from a collective move.

While it is clear that the dual path based on sanctions in tandem with talks with the Iranian guards gained the Russian and Chinese convergence at the UNSC, it is also clear that a dual track is envisaged with Syria from one side and the Iranian guards from another. I presume that the quartet will start invitations based on clear content to Middle Eastern players for a Peace Summit in September to be held in Paris. I imagine the UN secretary general together to Mr. Blair, Senator Mitchell, Mr. Moratinos and Mr. Moussa touring capitals in July to consign the invitations.

It has to be definite though that Syria will be invited based on the return of Golan as per Hoff following a gradual withdrawal in exchange for full normalization. Lebanon also will be invited based on the return of Shebaa and the final status of the seven villages under a negotiated term where borders will open and a touristic compound from Egypt to Turkey will be offered to the international markets. Palestine will be invited based on the declaration of the state in 2011 within temporary borders and capital until a final agreement on well known pending issues will be found.

Attendees to the summit will be also Gulf Sheikhs and monarchs as much as observers can be the balancing nations of Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam and India.

A great follow up to the G-20 .

Once the peace summit frame is set, the swap and wish list talks with the Iranian guards can resume. Unfortunately the Iraqi new government will be in waiting for the developments and simultaneously launching any significant military initiative will be put on hold for the moment.

Only failure in July talks with the guards will lead inevitably to a tightening and worsening climate and inspections will start in the open seas.

From another hand whenever the government of Lebanon will be under pressure from Hizb not to adhere to the international summit of Paris it must take a bold initiative and announce its will to be a peace maker together to Syria. I recommend to Lebanon not to miss the opportunity to participate to the summit and to apply the best defense strategy which is to negotiate the peace agreement through the national unity government. I recommend also for Israel not to be drawn in any maritime clash with Lebanese aid bound to Gaza, there must be innovative tools diverting incoming vessels. Israel should be attentive also to cede generously to avoid any disruption of the summit by the Lebanese. 

The Lebanese diplomatic adherence to the summit and its diplomatic felxible behaviour will be the test for Hizb to show its true colors and allegiance. If by miscalculation or misfortune Hizb will be firm to advance the Iranian guards interests, then I am afraid that a major war will be launched in Lebanon.

It is easy to realize that in Mid August in presence of Hizb rigidity and bad intentions a major Israeli air/land military campaign brokered by all attendees of the summit, will target Hizb only and destroy its assets and clean up Lebanon in preparation for Peace in the area.

Syria showed good intentions so far and it will tutor its interest by distancing itself from the guards and by securing the Golan restitution in negotiations. Convincing Hizb to be part of the positive summit or alternatively be isolated and destroyed will be high on Syrian agenda in July.

The August conflagration in Lebanon will only empower the diplomatic track.

The summit will be held in Paris and a major outcome will define Peace for many centuries to come. The diplomatic breakthrough and the success to decouple Syria from the guards will be the opening door for the final stage of talks with the Iranian regime in October.

The IRGC will need to either comply with the international will or to bear the consequences in November.

The arch of roar in Iran in November will induce Pakistani intelligence to positively impact the Taliban to recalculate their stand in the Afghan arena and to cooperate with the western efforts to stabilize that theater.

The Iraqi theater will benefit greatly also because the new government will be announced without significant IRGC influence.

Officially ending the two wars conduced by the US can only be through a clean up in Lebanon in presence of Hizb rigidity, a breakthrough in peace talks during the Summit of Paris, an aerial strategic/tactical attack on the IRGC if the swap will halt, a new Iraqi cabinet independent from IRGC influence and an Afghan Jirga in 2011 that will avoid the battle of Kandahar to be postponed until next spring for now or indefinitely.

“Empowering world citizenry is to enact civil rights and project prosperity and safety in the global markets”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour