THE AGE OF CALMNESS

May 30, 2017

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Tragedy (from the Greek: τραγῳδία, tragōidia) is a form of drama based on human suffering that invokes an accompanying catharsis or pleasure in audiences. While many cultures have developed forms that provoke this paradoxical response, the term tragedy often refers to a specific tradition of drama that has played a unique and important role historically in the self-definition of Western civilisation.    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy

Looking into the definition of tragedy, one is invoked to interpret it as a western monopoly. Yet Qu Yuan’s story, that kick started the Dragon Boat Festival, when his supporters launched boats to try to save him, and, to keep fish from his body, by dropping rice balls into the water, suggests a different outlook. http://www.historychannel.com.au/this-day-in-history/origins-of-dragon-boat-festival/

Caught in Tragedy, maybe thought as the best description to the world order that followed WWI and WWII; a meddling of humanity from needs to greed.

“Elites have taken advantage of the global liberal order—sometimes inadvertently, sometimes intentionally—to capture most of the income and wealth gains in recent decades, and they have not shared much with the middle and lower classes.” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-04-17/liberal-order-rigged?cid=soc-fb-rdr

Not even institutions can save the possible upcoming backsliding.

“The safeguards of democracy may not come from the quarters one might expect. American society’s purported commitment to democracy is no guarantee against backsliding; nor is constitutional checks and balances, the bureaucracy, or the free press.” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2017-04-17/america-still-safe-democracy?cid=soc-fb-rdr

One might think that tensions ranging from white ethnicity in America, to Turk in Xianjing, passing by the drift in Indonesia will be resolved by the Chinese initiative OBOR, a realist game that plays well in the hands of the old school, where everything is reduced to Chess, GO and Risk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

While it could be true to play Russia against China in the next 2 or 3 years, as a hanging fruit, http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/01/from-kissingers-playbook-flynn-is-gone-his-russia-policy-lives-on/ the truth is much different and that is without a new post modern vision, Bankers & co are deemed to demise, drowning with them most of humanity. http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/why-trump-cant-break-russia-away-from-china/

The sense of Tragedy comes over again:

“The slowly vanishing West abets this development by depositing its seeds of unity into an emerging global culture that spans continents. Further encouraging this process is the erosion of distance by way of technology: new roads, bridges, ports, airplanes, massive container ships, and fiber-optic cables.”http://stories.cnas.org/the-return-of-marco-polos-world-and-the-u-s-military-response

But hold on, before we embark on a Concordia scenario, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/14/captain-jailed-costa-concordia-disaster-says-will-go-back-ship/  why we don’t wash our eyes with real news for realists. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/fed-s-hot-or-not-confusion-on-economy-to-shape-rate-hike-debate

So why not proposing In June a quarter point increase in interest rate as very effective. Later in September I would say that the balance sheet reduction can start. “According to weekly data published by the Fed, its balance sheet consists of $2.5 trillion in treasuries and $1.8 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. http://www.investopedia.com/…/how-will-fed-reduce-balance-…/ . Basically the balance sheet is 150 % of the total Chinese foreign reserves. So what can be the effective way to reduce it gradually? At first you can put a gradual reduction in the amount of bonds the FED would be buying each month http://www.cnbc.com/…/fed-sets-process-to-unravel-4-point-5…

Second it is worth noting that $1.4 trillion of the $2.5 trillion in Treasuries have maturities of less than five years, therefore not reinvesting the maturing assets would pave the way for further reduction in the balance sheet.

Third and this one don’t exclude the others, and that is instead of reselling securities, repackaging them by creating a product granted for American infrastructure and tourism development to reach a target of 100 million visitors per year. Therefore you need bankers to negotiate with policy makers, to create new retreats in almost all states as a prelude to the development of space tourism.
Long term objective would be to reduce the budget sheet by 60 % in 4 years, to anticipate the upcoming crisis and accumulate financial countermeasures. Say what remains will be 1 Trillion in long term maturities of treasuries, 500 Billion in treasuries with less than two years, and 300 billions of reinvested short term (12 months) maturing securities waiting to be repackaged.
Therefore the first cap of bond purchase will be significant contrary to what experts say, and then it will grow gradually, say a September cap of 85 % of actual purchases, or 15 % reduction.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/…/quarterly_balance_sheet_de…

This vision will extricate us from the classic trap called Thucydides, http://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/overview-thucydides-trap and concentrate on viable options to regenerate the sense of tragedy plays in drama.  “Although the word tragedy is often used loosely to describe any sort of disaster or misfortune, it more precisely refers to a work of art that probes with high seriousness questions concerning the role of man in the universe.” https://www.britannica.com/art/tragedy-literature

So the question maybe can Washington escape Caesarism? As Kaplan asks http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/26/trumps-budget-is-american-caesarism/  or simply  put in different words in attacking the US president, “Yet in many ways, doesn’t he feel something like an updated version of that figure or perhaps of Nero who so famously fiddled — actually, according to historian Mary Beard in her book SPQR, played the lyre — while Rome burned?” http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176288/  .

Or even as envisaged by another recipe that suggests to the President: “All things considered, the great challenge today is not to further liberalize or globalize an American-led order, but to simply defend that order so that it better serves U.S. national interests’. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-key-successful-trump-foreign-policy-20848

What escapes the thinkers and think tanks alike, is when abundant are essays debating a specific issue, such as the Liberal order, this means that we are already in an era that follows. But how to define this when we have a trouble list http://www.activistpost.com/2017/05/list-seven-troubles-assailing-us-economy-head-summer.html which is a major element to induce the congress to adjust the federal budget just released by the WH https://www.whitehouse.gov/…/f…/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf .?

“Today, the United States and the world it did so much to create are once again courting tragedy — precisely because Americans have lost their ability to imagine what tragedy really is.” http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/29/the-end-of-history-is-the-birth-of-tragedy/  where Two eminent thinkers explain, devoting energy and depth.

However there might be something escaping everyone that is we are in a new era.

Shall we call it the Post Tragedy Momentum?  Where “Man’s protest against his mortality continues even after death and attains a mythical quality that represents a unanimous lament of man.” http://www.ide.hacettepe.edu.tr/ekitap2/5.pdf

Power Thesaurus lists 565 synonyms to drama and only 7 antonyms, where calmness is powerful. https://www.powerthesaurus.org/drama/synonyms

Most likely the post tragedy era, where indispensable leadership becomes geopolitical leader-sip; will be called the AGE OF CALMNESS, if we consider that: “Lazarus bases the Statue of Liberty on a vow, not a boast. The stress is not on the glorification of the self but the rescue of others from oppression, poverty, and fear.”  http://www.loc.gov/poetry/poetry-of-america/essays/essay-davidlehman.html

Hence while the readiness of defense assets in the US will be pursued, budget issues will be paramount and unstoppable global dynamics will bring about unexpected novelty that will nurture calmness.

“Beauty is the way of life, With the calmness of nature around us always; But, let us all live in peace with each other.” Edward Kofi Louis


SURVEY

May 10, 2017

Source: SURVEY