Sovereignty and Beyond

January 16, 2017

Boycott, Sovereignty and Beyond

Abstract

Undoubtedly the failure of the Lebanese state to express governance since decades of its inception, reside in the fact that the state could never exert full sovereignty and monopoly of coercion on its territories.
The predominance of sectarianism increased and fomented the weaknesses of the Lebanese state and this factor must make us reflect about the legitimate exercise of power and sovereignty, to display independence and national interest.
While the Lebanese state has jure sovereignty, de facto it shares this sovereignty with the confessions forming the groups of communities forming the population. http://eujournal.org/index.p…/esj/article/download/4144/3980
The only way forward therefore is to evolve the power sharing system from being a sectarian kleptocracy of Mafiosi based on communal-ism, foreign protection and widespread corruption into a form of practical democracy based on fair representation and meritocracy within secure and peaceful final borders.

Introduction

It is no secret that the origin of modern Lebanon can be spanned along many centuries, even if the existence of the territory itself goes back to 3000 B.C.
William Harris in his” Lebanon A History”, argues that Lebanon’s sectarian politics are as much (if not more) a product of prolonged indigenous evolution as of nineteenth century European/Ottoman interventions. He also contends that modern Lebanon would not have broken down if the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war had not taken place. https://global.oup.com/acade…/product/lebanon-9780195181111…&
Since Resolution 194 of the United Nations https://en.wikipedia.org/…/United_Nations_General_Assembly_…
And all others affecting the Lebanese theater https://unscol.unmissions.org/Default.aspx…
The main question is Can renewed conflict in LEBANON be averted? (Kotia p.19) https://works.bepress.com/emmanuel_kotia/1/
The truth is that international chancelleries regard divided and sectarian Lebanon as the best recipe for prolonged non belligerence on its southern and most volatile border, in absence of durable and just regional peace accords. Where corrupt local politicians and non state actors will be snatched into benefits and imbued to secure and serve the interest even financial of Non Lebanese players.

Causes and Effects

Contrary to what the Lebanese President delivered in the inaugural speech in the parliament after he had taken the office oath, where he affirmed “the importance of approving a new electoral law which fairly represents all the Lebanese segments”, noting that coping with corruption will be the main goal of the governmental institutions. http://english.almanar.com.lb/83290
The members of the Security Council stressed the importance of the holding of parliamentary elections by May 2017, in accordance with the Constitution, in order to sustain Lebanon’s democratic tradition. https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12645.doc.htm there is no mention of the electoral law in the statement as we can notice.
There is a clear pattern where the international system seeks to deploy a semblance of stability while all the ingredients of conflict are here to stay.
Local politicians including the president of the republic are used for the interests of instating a new parliament where divisiveness is ensured and no national platform is workable.
This is the direct cause of the requirement for a national stand against the exploitation of Lebanon as a perpetual arena for hidden instability that runs against the core of the interest of all its citizens and the collective heart of the nation.
As we can all envisage, the recycling of the general elections under the same electoral law of 1960 is an attempt by local Mignons to satisfy their international masters, and this will be objected, opposed and refused by a clear cut call to boycott the elections or to cast a white ballot. The total number of boy-cotters and white votes will be the sum of eligible citizen’s voters who will support the second phase of our intent, calling to dismantle the actual tribal, feudal and religious mechanisms, which is robbing the country and rampaging state assets, and replace them by modern and secular institutions for all citizens.
An illegitimate parliament, who self extended its mandate and elected a president that fulfills foreign interest are both acting de facto against the Lebanese jure sovereignty.
From above the upcoming general elections held as per the 1960 law, are not an opportunity to reform the power sharing system, but these are an abusive attempt of reproducing arrogance, and inducing corrosion of the national tissue. But above all a farce managed by the ministry of interior and aided by private Gas and Oil interests against the collective society as lately enunciated in a public letter addressed to the president himself. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/270902

Means

It is obvious that the war lords and the international spy networks will do all possible to derail the efforts of decent Lebanese to start up a new Lebanon through instating sovereignty and by deploying coercion and hard power assets. The reason for the conclusion that this extreme measure to establish control by force, on thieves and thugs who are acting in tandem, to impede the social society from advancing its own representatives to the command of state posts in conformity with democratic rules , is basic and legal but also deriving from a majority of boy-cotters and white voters.
The strategy thus is to oppose the general elections by 1960 law, and to act afterwards on a time of our chosen. Once plans, assets, contacts will be finalized the deadline will be set and inevitably sovereignty will be instated in tandem with the rule of law.

Operations
Operations will be planned and executed by all armed forces on behalf of the citizenry and the final objective will be to create a new nation/state. The leading group will be timely formed beforehand and the populace will be called to maintain calm and show support.
Details will be finalized in meetings and sessions of national security.

Scenario Beyond
As involved citizens we look beyond the establishment of a new sovereign Lebanon to empower the opportunities for a new republic: where jobs, security, solidarity , justice, equality, and peace are enacted.


Thucydides Relief, An elegant Foreign Policy

January 6, 2017

Thucydides Relief, An elegant Foreign Policy: Ready Power Balancing Humanism.

Introduction

Observers and analysts spent much time describing the first decade of the 21st century, and tried to forecast scenarios for the upcoming years 2030, 2050 and beyond. What remains a constant in global affairs however, is the geographic fortune of the US having an excellent network of rivers and a wonderful location in between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Stretched as it is in between great neighbors, Canada and Mexico , allied also with major European powers, UK, Germany , France , trading at ease with Japan and China, fracking new oil wells , structuring artificial intelligence, renovating services by Uber and reusable rockets, the US is undoubtedly much ingrained in the global tissue, that no retraction can change the actual ramifications.

An encompassing forecast at Stratfor.com for 2017 elaborates regarding the upcoming, yet it is paramount to realize at first where the first priority in times of major instability stands. Europe will witness political torrents, China will struggle to regain its economic export relevance and Russia will disseminate divisions to reinstate a forever lost soviet grandeur.

Abstract

Designing a new US military , by expanding the Navy a little, empowering the army a little, allotting the air force with capabilities of networks and setting the course for unmanned assets in the seas, in the skies, on land and in space are all tools needed to generate readiness.
More than hard power coined by classic military thinkers , soft power coined by Joseph Nye and rising power coined by historians, ready power is the modern concept of balancing in the post globalization era. In truth we can register wide climate change issues, deflation and lost decades in economy. As much as bad loans pervasiveness and the loss of the spirit of sacrifice in human nature. There are conflict between states, non states and entities which increase the general concern, and augment the need for a wise international prevention and monitoring. Within the concert of the nation’s only a ready power interacting with all players and balancing the input and output of power in all its facets, can act to favor a world peaceful pattern. Together to the post global modern values, the evolution of species and the micro management of local crisis. It is no secret that natural disasters and humanitarian aid necessary for populations under strain, are much present in our times. And efforts need also to concentrate on these, coupled to promoting jobs for humans and robots jointly. Considering the demographics of the world, it is thought that in few years 10 billion inhabitants will be an easy number to set strategies of consumption, and sales for international corporations. Universal products and services will be the new frontier in technology. Rethinking urban-ism and greenness will be primary for the citizenry, while learning and inventions will shake literature and arts completely.
A ready power will be the center of magical realism, in other words, the appropriate mix between, setting attack submarines together to gold medal athletes and synchronizing robots dynamics coupled to projecting aid to distressed communities. It is a building of laws that understands Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, and other naval strategists such as Mahan, and always acts with attentiveness to equilibrium. It maintains freedoms and is a custodian of synergy in diverging interests; it exerts powerful mediation and projects wisdom and displays harmony.
Strength is there, evident, clear, in tentacles that go from economy to social solidarity, from military to deployments worldwide, from new energy and wind technicians to chef robots.

US TRUMP MANDATE

“From yesterday’s man to tomorrow’s liberal leader, wise and just are the markers for a ready power in balancing cultural humanism.”

In terms of priorities, the president of the US needs to select the best option to enlarge the military most likely by endorsing the CNAS plan and trying to match budget resources until 2025. The CNAS Plan is very close to the vision of readiness and balancing, although it should develop further details about R&D such as the sixth generation avionics, and the third offset. It needs to reduce more in nuclear armaments, and to increase the funds for civil military joint operations dedicated to humanitarian aid, and natural disasters, based on the Unity of Mission vision. Focus on Cyber swarm torpedoes, unmanned and fully reusable space planes to provide “aircraft-like access” to space, and laser mastery will be the edge of the art .

Secondly, the President needs to raise his popularity , by a vision based on development of trade and of the global economy in a way that the liberal order recollects its center at the heart of the western hemisphere.  The liberal world is indeed based on freedoms and laws.
Starting with arbitration, reconciliation, International law and trade, all tutored and defended by appropriate choices made by a ready power in the decades to come.
While it is thought and understood that the geographic center of the liberal world is shifting, from being based on a western alliance exclusively to evolving into a more diverse belt of international citizens. It is also thought that these citizens might not represent per se’ a majority in one country but they have a lot of importance in terms of handling current and daily affairs in many countries.

The idea is to create a Trump startup fund. This goes along the universal pay for citizens, with a difference though, instead of paying citizens , you fund leisure and non robot, start up enterprises, by extending two years tax cuts, grants and loans, and these will bring benefits to taxes and employment on the long run.
Considering that leisure will be the major non robot industry, senior to senior activities, junior to senior ones and junior to junior will necessitate local transportation and logistics, regional and national. Hence creative infrastructure evolution will support the idea of a senior community in Texas interacting with another in Florida, who is brought together through a youth federation from New Orleans, for instance.
Raising his popularity with projects that stimulate social connectivity is paramount for President Trump to achieve the objective of ready power, balancing humanism.
But there is also another aspect that we need to consider and that is arm sales, artificial intelligence, new energy and new communications ( Trump Chips),
all sectors that will inevitably contribute to the economy at large, although primarily they will empower corporate interests. There is also another factor to take into consideration, and that is in December 2016 US consumer spending reached its highest level ever, and this is a great tool for the economy to continue its development on average of 3 % annual. Personal savings, Gasoline Prices and household debt to GDP represent an excellent mix to date http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-st…/consumer-spending.
Therefore this reinforces the vision that what you need is new leisure non robotic products for sure, small buses with entertainment on board, holiday breaks of brief duration with holistic outcomes, training for seniors and youngsters on social programs, high quality early child hood policy https://www.brookings.edu/…/memo-building-a-cohesive-high…/… etc…. .

At this stage after the exit from the 2008 major crisis, technology development and a young brand of advances in the industry, will allocate to robots a major intake in production for agriculture, construction and other sectors.
This opportunity will change the center of liberalism and alter the demographics on the world stage, so while I Phone’s and FROZEN are part of the US power, the most important part of it will remain the international institutions. So the way forward is to strengthen laws for copyright and for free trade, while adding up a system of systems in communication that enables a new generation of users/citizens.

Once you have a ready power, you operate balancing that fits humanism, and invest in research to create the young brand of systems, DARPA Young and the Trump Chips. And ultimately you open up immigration to foreign nationals from India and China, for modern Mandarin to become a second language as Spanish in the US.

While this creativity will bring back the center of liberalism to the west, as it will shift perceptions and introduce immigration policies, paving the way for a mix of different nationals to be absorbed in the local US tissue once and again. We should never forget that more than 3000 counties that voted the president contributed in less than 30 % of the GDP.

Henceforth it is pivotal for a ready power, to balance humanism, by relying on young technology to advance the legal international framework, by expanding trade and connections, on Swarms of unmanned vehicles to protect the land, the air, the space and the seas, and ultimately widening the center of the liberal order will re-position the west at its heart again.

EUROPE AND THE US

In 2017 the year of elections will take place in at least 3 major European countries, where the worst case scenario assumes, that two out of three (excluding Germany) will be lost to far right movements. Unstable Europe will emerge and quid pro quo will be the rule of the day. A return to the age of empires, emissaries, courtesans, Esfandiari’s (Magicians and poker players) & co is the nightmare for trade, rules, negotiations and institutions at large. A US bird view would very much recommend to sustain , nourish, evolve and entertain relations in the Pacific and the eastern/southern hemisphere, with China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia, Srilanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Madagascar , Bangladesh and Pakistan, to counterbalance seismic social European populism motto “ Foreigners out” .

However the temptation is big, the Atlantic alliance needs to struggle its way out of the crisis not only by shifting preposition-ed resources to Baltic States, but mainly by re-positioning the liberal heart to the west for the upcoming decades.

CHINA AND THE US

As deal makers will be looking into opening salvos to get better conditions with China or at least influence the Chinese maneuver on international stage, the constant will always be that Chinese trade with the US is the fact that no one can escape. While China is the major US partner in all accounts, it added 6.5 percent to its economy in 2016 (more or less the Netherlands GDP about 760 billion) and will almost have the same increment in 2017 (similar to the GDP of Switzerland about 655 billion). For the record US defense spending in 2016 is US Dollars 622 billion, and therefore we can say that the Chinese GDP growth is impressive even if based on the evolution to internal market consumption.

In truth the US need to release and relief Thucydides from his own intellectual and historic trap, as a gesture to foment hope and to elaborate grand strategy. In looking around us, we understand that there are several factors that determine reflection and attentiveness in and on Chinese policy making: the fertility rate, the debt / GDP ratio, the nuclear capability, the internal Chinese equilibrium and the US treasuries holdings second after JAPAN in the latest figures. But above all we need to breakdown the Chinese trade into 4 pieces, 1) trade with the US, 2) with other Western oriented nations or groups of nations ,Japan/Australia/New Zealand/Europe/Canada and India, 3) Chinese domestic trade, 4) and trade with the rest including Africa , Russia, south America / Philippines/Singapore, Pakistan etc..
Therefore how the 4 pieces will move will be a remarkable setting for observation, it is similar to communicating vases. Beside, President Xi Jinping will have his upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress to nominate the next generation of leaders, while president Trump will accompany this group of new Chinese leaders into 2025 easily (if re-elected without committing major mistakes in foreign policy), concomitant with the US crossing of the threshold of ready power, considering that the latest US Naval Institute projection sets at 355 ships.
There will be no US/Sino confrontation, rather some ups and downs within a qualitative shift from the YUAN EMBRACE & the UMBRELLA BENEFITS https://thinkingdice.wordpress.com/…/the-yuan-embrace-and-…/
to the YUAN BENEFITS & the UMBRELLA EMBRACE, where the US will reaffirm its presence in the South Chinese Sea significantly, while keeping all trade cooperation in place. It is a fact that in standing firm on the first chain of islands, and developing corridors of safety to erase the anti-access, area denial tactics connected through land / air batteries built on Chinese features in the South China Sea and on inland China, the US will have designed a constant.

Let us never forget that the deployment of THAAD in South Korea will help reopen channels of negotiations with North Korea and a new deal can be rethought for the nuclear reactor to shut down partially or for its activity to be managed under IAEA monitoring. Chinese help will be enlisted and a new era on the Korean peninsula can be looked at.

By contrast whenever President Xi Jinping will reduce his team’s growth therapy to economic factors, and mainly in replacing the actual PM, the common sense implicates that this policy will not yield. There is need to give more vocal visibility to social private voices, through acquiring legal representation, this will enable private owned companies to have more margin to access credit. Therefore the step in reforming the system is to start by local municipal representation. Pilot cities such as Chengdu can act as engine for local municipal representation and consequently larger private access to credit. Subsequently partially and gradually ceasing the Hukou household registry by allowing rights to vote in resident cities, will set the dynamics for real Chinese change. The USA, need to act on a triad, with China rather than on trade only. The triad consists of, forming an elastic southern economic/ manufacturing and social belt to counterbalance excessive Chinese nationalism, in countries like Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Srilanka and Thailand. Secondly implement the discreet FONOP’s on a strategic level, part of a continuum display of resources , irrespective of shifting circumstances in geopolitics, while delegating some security issues in the seas to allies such as Japan, Australia, UK and others in a proactive layer , that builds on current practices. But most importantly is three, in the Trinity, or triad, which is directed to people and investment, to pave the way for future areas of cooperation. Likely the introduction to the state department lottery program and major US universities, of an allocation for Chinese nationals only, based on a policy to include at least two million of them and families; on an eight year time frame in the American productive tissue. This will lead to a Pinyin version of the STATE DEPARTMENT website and leading presumably and eventually to the inclusion of Mandarin as a second language in The US au pair with Spanish.

President Xi need not to wait for the congress of 2017 considered the true turning point, yet he can already act to stimulate growth by creating incentives for foreign tourists to visit China and foreign nationals to establish their own individual tax free companies (48 months duration) with up to eight employees.
In this context the One China policy is irrelevant as such, but on paper, more important is the end result and peace will reign between the TWO BIGGEST POWERS of the 21st CENTURY divided by the largest neutral declining landmass ( RUSSIA) no matter what.
RUSSIA AND THE US
For the record the Russian GDP in 2015 was 1327 billion, equivalent to China’s rise in 2016 and 2017. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
Although we might be keen to elaborate thesis and perspectives, in terms of grand strategy and hard power as links below suggest:
http://warontherocks.com/…/stress-testing-the-foundations-…/
http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/the-return-of-hard-power/
Or to register advice from very old foxes such as Kissinger,  elaborated by his British pen Niall Ferguson, we need to realize that letting the Russian bear stay his course and sending him a clear message of non belligerence is an excellent tool.

Needless to say that Russia’s role in the Middle East is most welcome in terms of spreading freedoms and justice to the Syrian people so badly suffering. Ultimately and eventually seeking a political solution can’t escape the fact that a fractured Syria will not be reunited unless transition is enacted, a new power sharing is instated and the new Syrian led political equilibrium approved by consent. Russian ties to blood will reflect badly on its international neutral status. In managing the Russian decline, President Putin better set his succession, and steer a power control from a far, leading to a nuclear and neutral RUSSIA. Astana talks are an opportunity for further negotiations to cement the idea of a political solution, and it needs to widen the participation to other partners, such as the EU, in the context of the UNSC resolution 2254 and the International Syria Support Croup (ISSG).
Taking possess of the Syrian file will reveal to be a heavy burden for Putin,  but if the cease fire declared from midnight today will hold, this can be a good opening.

The REX TILLERSON deal can be to lease Crimea to Russia for 20 years, on renewable basis, always if natural TATAR rights will be respected in full.
Secondly it will respect the Ukrainian sovereignty totally, where Minsk agreements will be finalized under Ukrainian territorial integrity, and recognized semi-autonomous administration to eastern Donbas.
Third is to recognize an exclave to Moscow in Tartous similar to Kaliningrad.

Outsourcing to Russia, the handling of the Syrian file will ultimately lead not only to a truce, but also to humanitarian corridors, political transition, a new constitution, new power sharing, general elections, and a new national president.
A ring of stable nations will grant this REX deal, Finland, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Belarus and Armenia.Russia will have its own commercial deals in the 5 stan’s, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan.

A new reduction in nuclear armament will be negotiated to secure the full control and security of 100 per cent of nuclear resources and weapons.
In exchange for all this, US technology will support Russian neutrality to prosper its economy and diversify it. The objective is to reach a woman/birth ratio of 1.9 and a growth of 5 % annually. Putin requires handling his own succession though, and all nations will be happy to help. Better relations with Russia, will render visible the deal of managing the Russian decline which by no mean will cede territory or alter its geographic actual area. Eventually also the EXXON MOBILE / ROSNEFT Arctic rigs will resume exploration.
The Russian question will be solved.

MIDDLE EAST and the US

Just to add some Middle Eastern Sumac to the existing Tabouleh complexity, we need to note that there are three US constants.
A business like relation with Iran, based on developing agriculture cooperation, which will lead per se’ to a better environment in at least 3 theaters, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Hopefully immediately after the Boeing deal, other US companies will follow with machines for agriculture to develop the biggest project for world nutrition in the Iranian land mass comprised between the chains of its mountains. Think of a young brand of wheat to make Indian bread, and a special farming to export chicken for the Chinese market. Ultimately Iranian workers will be part of the liberal world based on trade and laws.

Persian “Deutorostomia “, will cultivate on its lands with US machinery, crops for India and chicken farms to China. Science and reason, versus cultural walls and closed borders, long term yet very necessary.
Then the constant of improving relations between Israel from one side and the Gulf Countries and Turkey from another side, which will lead to an easy resolution of the Arab Israeli conflict represented by the focal issue of Palestine.

More important the third constant will be to deploy heavy legal lifts to exploit Lebanese gas and oil offshore and inland, following the example of the KRG http://mnr.krg.org/…/KRG_Model_PSC_production_sharing_contr…
Arming the Lebanese democracy coupled to the opportunity of the upcoming general elections will be great to relax the Iranian proxy Hezbollah and its mantra of Consociational democracy or in Arabic .الديمقراطية التوافقية
Therefore it is of high priority to include also military aid, consisting of training and equipment with ammunition and systems capable to strengthen the overall C4SIR and Networks in Lebanon.
In the specifics Lebanon needs 3 more battalions, 2 infantry and one marine, in terms of troops and also weaponry such as A10, F4, from the old US arsenal, frigates and Strykers. Also it needs items such as communications equipment, small arms, and replacement parts for hardware and coastal radar for maritime and inland security.
It is paramount to realize that only a strong Lebanese army, structured on scientific and modern terms can generate stability and a climate of amenity.
For this purpose a conference to modernize the Lebanese army structure is very much on demand, this will empower Lebanese positions versus the bipartisan support in the congress and in the Pentagon and the State Department, and the Intelligence community.
In view of above, supporting the idea of the Lebanese president to nominate ten new members of parliament as additional quota to the upcoming electoral law is pivotal to confer dynamism of Lebanese lobbying by making sense of its pervasive Diaspora. This is about national interests and state security.

The accurate mix of the three tracks will lead to modern success in the Middle East , and enable resources to be dedicated at will in the South china Sea and with China the super partner and the true intellectual balancing forward.

APPEASEMENT and the US

There are two world candidates for appeasement on a strategic level and these are the Islamic Republic of Iran and the North Korean Republic.
The nuclear deal with Iran already delivered an accord with Boeing and Airbus, and this is the essence, economic reach and Geo-strategic improvement role for the Iranians (very visible in Lebanon although in need of a better positioning, to culminate in the absorption of non state actors in the army units). This is not against the interests of anyone; rather it should be explained to all opponents. Even if these opponents, are war mongers or stubborn chancellors riding a pedestal of ambivalence, impunity, arrogance and intellectual deafness.

Remember always that a core issue to the Iranian cause is the fact that Palestine is an independent state, no matter what the extreme Israeli right does.
Hence there is no need to seek more complexity on a geopolitical platform, with an outcome which is destabilizing at best. A polyp is a creature with a big head yet with much articulated complexity.
By reaching out to North Korea, with watermelon and candies, the US will have signed two points, the revival of the Agreed Framework between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as negotiating frame, and also balancing in the FAR EAST.
By improving economic relations and building on the latest Kurili Islands agreements (Russo/Japanese) and the corridor from Kashgar to Gwadar (Sino/Pakistani), you can reach out to nuclear disarmament in Pyongyang.

 

FAR EAST – INDIAN OCEAN and the US

Exploiting Iranian relations will reassess the southern belt in a new outlook , based on a connected ring of nations, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippine, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran , Australia, New Zealand, call it a belt for laws . Undoubtedly the Indian growth will be substantial, for manufacturing competition with the Chinese to generate dynamics in trade development and catering new products for the world inhabitants. This vision will relax the Afghan theater and liberate NATO resources from being boxed in and sandwiched in a Russo/Iranian bite.

ECONOMY and the US

A conservative forecast for 2017 is that DOW will reach 20800, but in June there will be a correction due to unforeseen events. Then again from October onward markets will pick up, to rise again. Average stocks gain will be 5 to 7 %. A joint venture can be started between Wall Street and the Shanghai stock market to operate a special index, call it Shanghai wall, minimum 20 K shares per moved transaction and companies listed will be above 350 million US dollars capitalization. Shanghai wall will finance projects in space and in the Arctic navigation. A signature project will be to finance the coastal highway in Lebanon, a loan on equal shares from the World Bank and the AIIB.

Global Terror and the US

Resolving the conflict in Iraq and Syria will be clue for terror to be sedated, yet this needs international understanding that tribes, clans, communities, have rights to determine their own fate when controlling sustainable means. This will be a long struggle.

SOUTH AMERICA – AFRICA and the US

Africa rivets a major importance in terms of development, and the South American Continent also . There should be a cooperation in terms of special labor projects and first res-ponders for humanitarian crisis.

CONCLUSIONS

Let us imagine a design that can represent three categories of states.

Liberal states in the world, CANADA, USA, EUROPE, INDIA, JAPAN, MEXICO, UKRAINE, BALTIC’S, NORTH EUROPE, POLAND, SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTH AFRICA, INDONESIA, Philippine, BANGLADESH , who are averaging almost 2 billion inhabitants.

Illiberal states such as China, Russia, and the 5 Stan’s, Belarus, THAILAND, MALDIVES, KSA & Gulf countries, averaging also 2 billion inhabitants.

And the third category which includes all the rest : failed, chaotic, third world, poor, discriminate, nuclear, pre-nuclear, post conflict, etc,,, (Venezuela , Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Syria, VIETNAM, BURMA, COLOMBIA, SINGAPORE, NEPAL, Palestine, ISRAEL, LEBANON, KUWAIT, LIBYA,AFGHANISTAN, Djibouti, etc…)  averaging the rest of inhabitants.

The shape that can represent these is a pyramid, divided into 3 parts interacting, where the base is made of the rest of states, some of them having ramifications in the middle part and the upper part ( PAKISTAN, ISRAEL, THAILAND, SINGAPORE, LEBANON.. ) . The same goes for the middle part where tentacles reach bottom in illiteracy and up in learning. And the upper part of the pyramid where less developed, under developed, ill developed, or obsolete components go down to both levels middle and basic.
Now the middle part made out of China coupling Leninism and capitalism, and Russia where democratic values are vying their way to defeat the Majar mafia model prevailing in Moscow, is not a threat per se’ to the liberal portion, rather it is a color minutia in the equation of pyramidal power.
Ready power balancing humanism, will always need to calibrate its leadership, upper positioning projected in safeguarding an alliance system of defense, R&D, technology, infrastructure and global networking in the upper level. It will exert leadership by cool awareness of multicultural diversity and continuous evolution of diplomacy. A ready power, balancing humanism, will rely on young technology to advance the legal international framework as the best post global deal.

While it will require out of necessity to deploy resources to the pyramidal basement in order to keep the equilibrium tight, of the entire mechanism, it has to penetrate the middle level periodically.
There will never be a time where all countries will have the same concept, languages, values, regulations, symptoms, speed, demographics, attitude, artistic output, but there is a pattern where optimism is prevailing and this is comforting,
http://www.nybooks.com/…/2016/12/22/on-optimism-and-despair/
https://gt.foreignpolicy.com/2…/essay/the-case-for-optimism…
Perception and high expectation must not alter the veracity of the truth; we live in multi-ethnic societies, where racial homogeneity is desired but never attained.

Human nature will endure internecine fighting but will lessen this violence increasingly.
For that end the liberal system, will pursue its march and glue the rest of the areas in a geopolitical plain of economic / resources amenity disturbed by several eruptions &, chaotic conflicts, yet entertained by Lutes, Ouds and mandolins.

All different, yet all equal in destiny. Happy 2017.


REFUGEES

September 9, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Was the Great flood the origin of humanity and its return? 1

Did the flood cause the initial humanitarian crisis and consequently generated the first refugees?

While the answers to above are unknown, it is proven that the discovery of Peking man in 1927, made it evident that ancient human-like creatures with an early Paleolithic culture had dwell-ed in China…. Until recently, archaeologists believed that the earliest Neolithic farming villages (the Yang Shao culture) appeared in the Yellow River valley about 4500 B.C.

Now a series of newly discovered sites has pushed back the Neolithic Age in China to 6500 B.C. The evidence indicates that China’s Neolithic culture, which cultivated millet and domesticated the pig, originated independently from that in the Near East.

China proper is a vast watershed drained by three river systems that rise close together on the high Tibetan plateau and flow eastward to the Pacific. Three mountain systems also rise in the west, diminishing in altitude as they slope eastward between the river systems. The Yellow River (Huang Ho), traditionally known as “China’s Sorrow” because of the misery caused by its Periodic flooding traverses the North China plain is most likely the cause of cyclical displacement of communities.  http://history-world.org/a_brief_history_of_china.htm

However we are also told by the Roman historian Pompeius Trogus (1st century BC), a near contemporary of Virgil, about a sinister web of court intrigue in which the new king Pygmalion of Tyre (brother of Dido) slays the chief priest Acharbas (husband of Dido), which causes the Queen Elissa (Dido) along with some nobles to flee the city of Tyre westward in a fleet of ships carrying royal gold. At Cyprus, four score temple maidens were taken aboard the ships. Then her fleet continues on, landing in North Africa to found Carthage.  Perhaps this caused the first internally displaced crisis that led to the local settler’s crisis of UTICA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Carthage

Since then, a long series of events happened and determined many conflicts, which caused displacements, exodus, and established refugees and new cities or worlds. Middle Age expeditions roamed the land and the seas, and the first corps dedicated to aid started to appear.

Tragic humanitarian crisis developed along different ages, up to the concert of EUROPE or the Congress of Vienna, passing by the battle of Solferino in 1859, and during WW1 and WW2 that obliged many people to displace and seek refuge. And after this in 1947 during the partition of India, in 1948 and 1967 in the Middle East, in 1955 in Vietnam, in 1959 in Rwanda, in 1967 in Biafra, in 1975 in Lebanon, in 1978 in Afghanistan, in 1985 in Laos, in 1984 in Ethiopia, in 1988 in Honduras,  in 1991 in Iraq and in former Yugoslavia, in 1994/5 in the great lakes, in 2003 in Iraq, in 2010 in Haiti, in 2011 in Syria, etc…

In leaving the old world and getting to our modern era, It is difficult to be precise about which is the world’s oldest refugee camp of our known world.  However one of the oldest camps is Cooper’s Camp in West Bengal, India, that dates since the partition. http://ioc.sagepub.com/content/44/1/53.extract

So what is a refugee camp? A refugee camp is a temporary settlement built to receive refugees and people in refugee-like situations. Refugee camps usually accommodate displaced persons who have fled from neighboring countries, but there are also camps for internally displaced persons…. Refugee camps generally develop in an impromptu fashion with the aim of meeting basic human needs for only a short time. Facilities that make a camp look or feel more permanent are often prohibited by host country governments. If the return of refugees is prevented, often by civil war, a humanitarian crisis can result or continue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee_camp

Of the ten largest documented refugee camps in the world, 7 are in Africa, 2 in the Middle East and one in India. http://www.borgenmagazine.com/ten-largest-refugee-camps-world/

In the specifics, surrounding the small town of Dadaab, Kenya, is one of the oldest and largest refugee camps in the world, it turned 20, five years ago. This camp regularly had airdropped onto its field, bundles of shelters and mosquito nets, and other relief supplies and humanitarian aid for the stranded people. http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2011/04/the-worlds-largest-refugee-camp-turns-20/100046/

Through its evolution, humanitarian aid to refugees caused by natural disasters or international crisis was regulated by some major milestones such as the GENEVA conventions and their additional protocols, https://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/publications/icrc-002-0368.pdf

And by humanitarian principles https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/Documents/OOM-humanitarianprinciples_eng_June12.pdf

But one of the most important humanitarian interventions is the one that happened during the crisis in Rwanda in 1994, as it was subject to heavy scrutiny and was followed by many studies. https://www.oecd.org/countries/rwanda/50189495.pdf

Which brought up Anglo sphere reviews in standards called the “Humanitarian Charter and minimum standard for Disaster response (Sphere 2000) “https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/176.pdf 

in professionalization requirements, http://www.elrha.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Professionalising_the_humanitarian_sector.pdf

and in speaking out case studies made within the MSF ( Medecins sans Frontiere) modus-operandi  http://speakingout.msf.org/en/the-violence-of-the-new-rwandan-regime

But also important reflections conducted by the ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross), on the interpretation of humanitarian principles within the conflicting views of several actors, and in presence of political scuttling. The ambitions of the sector have grown to include not just the effects but also the causes of crises. https://www.icrc.org/en/international-review/article/applying-humanitarian-principles-reflecting-experience-international

http://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2016/04/15/international-review-principles-guiding-humanitarian-action/

While humanitarian aid is playing a fundamental role now in global governance, if we look at the projection of demographics into the mid of the 21st century, we realize that one third increase will be the trajectory of citizens.

So learning from differing experiences from the flow of emigrants to the Canaries in 2006 https://www.ipinst.org/2016/05/lessons-from-the-cayucos-crisis  and from the present day European theater emigrants crisis https://www.google.com/search?q=1996+refugees&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-ab  where a clear cut necessity emerges of a different thinking to bridge the gap for needs and regulations vis a’ vis the refugees willing to establish or simply transit by a certain geographic zone. https://www.ipinst.org/2016/06/imagination-gap-migration#5

And considering the persisting volatile environment on the global scale http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/reports/the-global-system-on-the-brink-pathways-toward-a-new-normal  one can only think that the humanitarian aid will only flourish.

But how can this humanitarian aid evolve in an arid land, where diversification of economies is more a political challenge, http://www.lcps-lebanon.org/publication.php?id=286  or when refugees do not return to their homeland for a reason or another?

In the specifics where the return of refugees is not rendered possible for different reasons, then, we can talk about refugee’s economies, and here we need to demystify some assumptions. Refugees are commonly thought to be, economically isolated and homogeneous. They are also considered a burden, dependent and technologically illiterate and in-savvy. Yet this is not the case as demonstrated by the study of Alexander Betts that rotates around Rethinking assumptions. https://www.rsc.ox.ac.uk/refugeeeconomies

Yet when we concentrate on the Middle East and North Africa, where about 20 million refugees exist, then we need to take into consideration other factors, more local, http://www.lawschool.cornell.edu/international/clarke-initiative/upload/Beyond-Survival-Conference-Proceedings-2.pdf  tackling the livelihoods, and the system of daily lives.

More in particular and looking with an optical microscope lenses , one country is subjected to a major paralysis on this regard, be it because of the percentage of refugees per inhabitant or for the percentage of total consumers per infrastructure,  and this is Lebanon.

But many of Lebanon’s scars are self-inflicted as shown in the study of Crisis Group https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/lebanon/lebanon-s-self-defeating-survival-strategies

And/ or in the impact of Lebanon’s policy on the Syrian refugees  http://cskc.daleel-madani.org/resource/formal-informality-brokering-mechanisms-and-illegality-impact-lebanese-state%E2%80%99s-policies  and what emerges from profiling the children living on the streets of Lebanon, where the estimated number of SBC ‘s in the 18 Districts of LEBANON is approximately 1510 .  http://www.unicef.org/lebanon/resources_9943.htm

So before debating the exact terminology of refugee and respective rights, in Lebanon, we need to realize that Lebanon also has a political cartel in governance and two major problems facing its communities, the financial situation and the humanitarian aid.

If it is true that the Lebanese public debt can be tackled through policies set by governments, it is also true that the Syrian refugees thought to be hindering public life in Lebanon, can have their presence by contrast, addressed through initiative taken by private entrepreneurs.

In an imperfect world, people in need of intervention on yearly basis are recorded to be by the millions, be this for natural disasters or for local conflicts, and the idea is that a major start up need to be thought to effectively bridge the gap in creative thinking about refugees.

Considering the variety of talents accounted for, that is useful for the private industry in many different ways. And having at disposal so much energies and potentials, an intelligent scheme to exploit all assets, none to be left out, should be put in place, to create a start up that operates on global and multinational scale.

The Lebanese start up to be called Refugees, and financed by private investment ( consortium between bankers, cement factories, steel industries, telecom and hi-tech researchers, medics, innovators, etc..) can rely on gathering the existing human power on a first stage, to manufacture building material,  transportation means all labeled on purpose. Other items such as bicycles, charts, vendor’s banquets,  washing stations, sun energy platforms, wind wheels or farms , etc….  can be outsourced and positioned beforehand in regional theaters together to heavy lift vehicles and cargo planes, ready for immediate emergency needs.

All this will generate profit when you supply the operations of global humanitarian aid with human and logistic resources. The start up one day can team up with others established such as Facebook, Tesla, Chinese Steel Corporation, Vodafone, AIR PARTNER, etc..

Although some private things already exist but these are not enough at all, http://www.smartcompany.com.au/entrepreneurs/70724-how-startups-and-entrepreneurs-are-working-to-make-life-easier-for-refugees-around-the-world/

Let us just think about how come there is always collusion between public funds and humanitarian delivery?

Isn’t it because there is not enough private investment out there?

1 http://www.ancient-origins.net/human-origins-science-religions/evidence-great-flood-real-or-myth-part-i-005340?page=0%2C1

For further literature about refugees refer to

http://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6a6c98.html

This blog is dedicated to all refugees worldwide.

Thank You ,

 

 


AMITY LETTER

August 12, 2016

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

This is an amity letter from the PEOPLE of LEBANON to the PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

It is no secret that Lebanon is the third country in the world, after Turkey and Pakistan, in terms of numbers of hosted refugees. This achievement is generated by the tumults in the wider MIDDLE EAST in general and in SYRIA in particular. Yet this major burden and challenge, had only enhanced the efforts of the US administration to increase its aid (military and civil) to the LEBANESE institutions (ARMED FORCES, learning bodies and infrastructure), which is a remarkable gesture in times of spreading chaos and fomented violence. How does this hold in terms of mutual national interests?

Tracing back the evolution of the communities, living on the shores of the Eastern Mediterranean located between Acre and Banias, it is safe to affirm that self determination was their true stamina. By contrast, emigration and creation of new communities in Carthage/ Spain/ Corsica/Sardinia… for those willing to leave, coupled  to hard work and sacrifice, for those willing to stay, acted both as the unifyer in the melting pot remnants of different passing-Byers (  Alexander, Nebuchadnezzar II, Tiberius , SHARON and ASSAD)

While immigrants and geography helped the first independent states in the US to gain momentum and enact federalism, as a form of “Largesse” that will nurture industrial revolutions; European fluid insecurity environment caused two major wars that kept their leftovers up to our days.

As much as Atlantic emotions and interests accidentally supported the General Motors affiliated companies to build occupying third Reich “Panzers” in Europe, Colonialism and Capitalism chronically failed to prescribe a cure for the world temporary diseases. A short century of cold war, brought down the wall of Berlin, but also erected the walls in Jerusalem, entre-autre.

In truth, the occupation of Palestine not only on the surface, transformed the Israeli people from seekers of a safe homeland into practitioners of segregation and brutality, but also deeply implanted and negatively instated a Lebanese major malpractice, which shifted the objectives of liberation and resistance in South Lebanon, into exploit of human causes for the benefit of demagoguery, indebted governance and individual greed.  There is no difference between Wahhabi doctrine, Jabotinski vision and or Khomeinism, all lead to dissolution of principles in state building.

Joe Biden in a recent article on Foreign Affairs, entitled Building on Success, eloquently displays a sober narrative, although incomplete. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-08-07/building-success?cid=emc-biden_email-header-080916&sp_mid=52026312&sp_rid=ZWtuNzdAaG90bWFpbC5jb20S1&spMailingID=52026312&spUserID=MjEwNDg3MDg4NTA5S0&spJobID=981659137&spReportId=OTgxNjU5MTM3S0

It is a fact that American elections transforms the vacationing elite in Washington during August into an easy target, a sitting duck , until November, where some essayists portray this as a window for an upcoming Russian Adventure in Mariupol, or Kaliningrad http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/08/11/is_putin_preparing_a_new_attack_on_ukraine_109696.html

But this isn’t the true danger, as in my assessment Russian reserves can’t afford further confrontation with the current oil barrel under 45 US Dollars, and with the bubble of the markets close to erupt, (the true reason behind the FED delay of interest rate rise).  Recent concentration of military assets along the borders of “Donbas” is an electoral tool for the legislative elections in September, but most of all it is the result of the Russian roulette or the Hybrid War. Which keeps the troops staying the course, because there is no other alternative in this policy other than emptying the Russian state coffers from cash, until Putin picks a successor for 2018, and who is better placed than “Mrs. Budget”  Tatyana Golikova?

So what is the true danger? The threat is that Plutocracy and KLEPTOCRACY worldwide concentrated an enormous amount of financial resources in the hands of very few, while floating non recoverable loans equivalent to trash money. These corporations that helped the Chinese Industrial wild advance are responsible for reducing presidential choices to alignment with the establishment (Mrs .CLINTON) and sky scraping mediocrity (Mr. Trump), while paving the way for innuendo in Mr. Xi’s practices in Chinese projection of power in the South China Sea. A Chinese industrial monster was aided by Rothschild’s/Rockefeller’s that need to learn peaceful maritime coexistence with VIETNAM, Philippines, TAIWAN and JAPAN. There is much headache for the 7th fleet exerting new concepts of Distributed Lethality, drone proliferation and to the F35 masters of the sky managing aerial combat. Will the Chinese succeed in access denial in the nine dash line and augur the rise of a challenging order?

Thucydides probably would argue again by saying “The secret to happiness is freedom… And the secret to freedom is courage.

Freedom, happiness and courage are the basic elements and ingredients that constitute the Lebanese soul; an effervescent enthusiasm for life, contrary to the apparent dictum that spreads an erroneous frequency by mistakenly positioning the Lebanese People marching in the wrong direction of history.

So what shall the Lebanese do with the arms donated to the Lebanese Armed Forces, and with the aids/assets displayed to help refugees, in presence of a hemorrhage of state services, a total debacle of public affairs management and irreversible descent in debt and corruption?

Building on an unsuccessful state, Lebanon needs to reinforce the defense formula of the territory while simultaneously reforming the delivery to the citizenry.

This is the secret incentive that helps the Lebanese activists glue together and amalgam, in a common message, a national ticket of 128 candidates, in a true electoral program and to seek to exert illuminated governance through the upcoming parliamentary elections, whatever the electoral law put in place by thieves and thugs will be.

The Lebanese activism pledge is to win the trust of the local collectivism and of the international community, over and over again.

Watch us,

Thank You,

 

 


PAX PHOENICIA

July 20, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“When night is young, it shines bright and clear.
The other is smaller, but for the best sailor.
In a smaller orbit it goes around, and leads the ships of Sidon on their voyages.” Phaenomena 200 BC – Aratos

Considering latest events in the European continent, starting from the UK referendum to exit the EU, up to the Italian Banks crisis, and the German exports need to stable growth, one can assess that the European Republic as suggested by http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/interviews/2068-europe-needs-to-transcend-the-nation-state  , is the most important political project in our modern times. In truth while uniting so many different languages and interests, will have ups and downs for sure, it is understood that ramifications also will entail several major topics, such as refugees and the alarming trend of violent actions disturbing the peaceful administration of civil affairs in the continent.

There is no doubt that to acquire more leverage the European Republic, it has to become a source of sustain for each pensioner in the next 30 years. This can unfold by converging all pensioners’ salaries to be paid by one Sovereign European Fund, while all new born infants will receive cash back from another Republican fund.

So is it wiser to break down history in different eras or can it unfolds in an unraveling continuum?

Is there a link between old human civilizations spread on different continents? Definitely there is a continuum and the link is PAX PHOENICIA, where humanity metamorphosed always in different forms, Chinese, Egyptian, Indian, Sumeri, Kanaanite (think about King Hiram, King David and the Patriach of Jerusalem Elia ), Greek, Roman, Dutch, Portuguese, British, Russian, American, etc…

Whenever we wish to elaborate on the recent coup in Turkey, and to position it in the connections with the European Republic, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkeys-failed-coup-what-happened-whos-behind-it-what-17015 , we can only hope that a new liberal constitution with checks and balances will come up. Here Mr. Erdogan need to realize that his government spurred division, and that his role need to be ended the sooner the best, or else this will represent a likely scenario of division and conflict, where two Turkey’s ( East and West) will unfold along a line from Trabzon to Anamur and a successive confederation will require a lot of diplomatic work, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/sectarian-tension-builds-in-turkey-as-erdogan-crackdown-widens .

Teutonic shifts can be at the horizon, yet analyzing some points; we get back to the continuum of the PAX PHOENICIA.

From the succession to Putin, where Mr. Kerry needs to add frequency to his visits to Moscow to entice the establishment to pick up a successor, preferably Mrs Budget Tatiana Golikov, to the decision of the financial masters of the universe to hike the FED interest rate to prepare for the next and upcoming economic crisis, links abound.

So why we don’t get involved in international architecture and think about the Arc of Gas stretching from Algeria to Turkish Riviera, call it the Republic of Carthage with depth extending east , up to Pakistan, which covers a major importance as source of energy to the Republic of Europe, getting older in the next 30 years.

AWWWW, here comes Turkish instability that will factor into the dissolution of the strategic duet Riyadh/Tehran, ceding importance to the Republic of Carthage, where two elected “despots” such as Bibi Netanyahu and Raja Tayyeb Erdogan are effectively dismantling the civil administration of their respective states. The first by strengthening racism and religious divide, while the latter is following the path of Ian Bremer, who used to be the US representative in Iraq, in dismantling state bureaucrats from military to civil servants, increasing the intellectual divide between Kemalists who opposed the Serves convention and Erdoganists lobbying for a Turkish strategic shine or stream if we want.

How this will affect Lebanon?

As Lebanese citizen I am concerned that any delay in Lebanese reforms and general elections as per the electoral law of the Lebanese opposition version, https://thinkingdiceblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/22/the-electoral-law-for-lebanon-by-the-lebanese-opposition will force the interplay of the inevitability of a third Lebanese war, especially in presence of a US /Russo cooperation vis a’ vis the Syria crisis.

If it is true that until now Hezbollah had an advantage in the formula of loss and benefit, entangled in the Syrian conflict and simultaneously sponsoring Lebanese presidential vacuum, it is also true that from today the time factor in the vacuum, is not anymore in Hezbollah’s favor and advantage. Lest will become the political mantra of the party of God.

So as we are already in the tunnel of Bretton Woods, do we need to sort out new mechanism to manage the global affairs, as suggested here https://thinkingdiceblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/pinot-roots-and-magnolia-movement/ ?

While we will figure many things out, the South China Sea will continue to be a Chinese illegal requirement of regional power projection, the same as Russian circumvention of Armenia in its trade to the Indian Subcontinent will be a geopolitical requirement. http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45647&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=314beddbad1fe3dbb2805de0d5f07ee6#.V48zmBLeJVc

Therefore it is less a matter of Liberal democracy, Kleptocracy, Theocracy, Authoritarianism, or totalitarianism, all coexisting under the same rule of the PAX PHOENICIA, still running in continuum.

“Take a breath, Rest your head, Close your eyes, you are right” Don’t be so Shy Lyrics, Imany

Thank You,

 

 


Pinot Roots and Magnolia Movement

June 28, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“… Yelp at the moon and talk in tongues , assent to leer toward implosion

Near slumber now, etch precious, beside the scent of the richest of teas,

and bouquets of nomadic autumn ,

Sleep over leaves that are green, and kaleidoscope-vivid

enhance your reverie and tempt the pungent perfume,

of the tenderly-parented Pinot “ Opus in Silk by Alan Reed

Lately some political events were registered in the European continent such as the referendum in the UK, Local elections in Italy and the general elections in Spain.

There were also other issues at stake in nearby geographical areas, the Israeli/Turkish agreement, the struggling Iranian economy and the ramifications of the Syrian crisis in neighboring countries (Jordan/Lebanon and Iraq).  We can add also the penned letter of apology from Erdogan to Putin.

While politics in the European Continent in tandem with the US primaries do confirm a structural major crisis of the liberal order, and a reference can be the Middle Income gap, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again , pervasive global debt be it Italian , Greek , Portuguese , Japanese , Chinese or Venezuelan reiterate the necessity to renovate international institutions to face the new modern challenges. A reference to the Bond markets situation can be checked http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-26/the-100-trillion-bond-market-s-got-bigger-concerns-than-brexit

Western architecture requires re-elaborating and rethinking the harmony of the international system. New ideas can be to call for the first edition of a G 12, to include European founders, China, Japan, India, Russia and the US, where the subject of debates will be, Refugees, Crisis, International Trade and Navigation. Two entities need to be created; one is the International Private Assets Agency under BASEL supervision. (It will find the nexus between private wealth concentration and other system metrics and propose policies to adjust), and secondly a Migration & Conflicts Affairs Center to be located in Beirut elevating the Refugees Convention into a parameter for world growth and peace.

“We human beings are communitarian beings in essence; as we genuinely thrive to the extent that we are bound with fellow human beings in solidarity and trust.”
As Pearl Buck says “When the novelist begins to make shapes and styles and techniques and new schools, then he/she is like a ship stranded upon a reef whose propeller, whirl wildly as it will, cannot drive the ship onward. Not until the ship is in its element again can it regain its course.”

Isn’t the Ship’s element , the human dimension within an international system of evolving workable rules and regulations, where methods and sources are dedicated to the well being of global citizens?.

There is a point here and I would recommend to the Financial masters of the Universe, to evolve Bretton Woods from merely an expression and tool of Western primacy (containment, pivot, global strike, reset, Quantitative easing, etc…) into a Pinot Roots International Conference that will propose and put in place a new mechanism of global governance not only monitored by Bankers but also by others having at heart the global harmony not selfish greed alone.

The New Liberal Order from Bretton Woods to Pinot Roots, will lead to the Creation of new international agencies and the reinforcement of the Western geopolitical architecture, where Russian neutrality will be the custodian of the Matryoshka Order, and where the Chinese integration with the liberal order will be best expressed through the hermetic and heavenly closure of Pandora’s box, after bringing in it all mythical evils which were released previously.

The positive note about the structural global crisis is that it will enable the majority of handful private assets parked in overseas safe heavens, to be redistributed to safeguard global interests by diminishing instability and social tensions, in respect of geopolitical necessities.

This singular international opportunity is a sounding alarm for Lebanon,  a nation without a state hosting a tremendous amount of refugees.

Lebanon needs to move forward and approve the electoral law, immediately, no ifs or buts. The principle is that a proportional system in absence of the Senate is not accepted by the sectarian interests as much as the Orthodox draft will not be accepted by the Secular. Both social forces are intertwined and must coexist in peace to proceed.

The compromise is the mixed law, as per following link https://thinkingdice.wordpress.com/2016/06/17/the-electoral-law-for-lebanon-by-the-lebanese-opposition/

and to be frank, Lebanese politicians who are in charge today must realize that time is short and they need to act or else they will be totally responsible for the outcome of the future mess they will be unable to manage. Talal Arslan, Nabih Berri, Tammam Salam, Saad Hariri, Sejean Azzi, Mohammad Raad, and all the rest of corrupt and failed elite,  have two options : either to resign or to approve the mentioned draft law by the end of August, and call for general elections within an acceptable time frame by the end of February 2017.

International opposition and popular forces need to contest the Leaning Financial Empire and rethink the pillars of international cooperation; however this should not become populist and racist, rather reflect a spirit of solidarity AND HUMAN TRUST.

The convergence of purposes and means between international and local actors will support the idea of peaceful rotation of power in Lebanon, where opposition forces will create a magnolia movement to express governance.

Under the Magnolia banner all candidates, individuals, lists, parties etc,, will ally and run for shared governance, security , legality, justice and reforms , towards the third Lebanese Republic, as alternative to the second Republic of despair , demise and inertia.

International Pinot Roots and Lebanese Magnolia Movement are liberal expressions.

“…No more untamed, no more so free,
Nor so young, nor so wild and aflame were we.
Dearer to us grew other things:
Easy sleep, books, a day’s quiet holiday,
Good talk beside a fire, the beauty of old face …” Magnolia Tree Poem

Thank you ,


The Electoral Law for Lebanon , by The Lebanese Opposition

June 17, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Considering the actual Lebanese stalemate and the surrounding dangerous geopolitical environment, it is a major priority for the Lebanese Opposition and all the components of the Lebanese civil society, to unite behind a common electoral denominator which is widely representative and carries in it the germs of fairness and modernity.

We all know that the collective Lebanese effort to gain independence and build a nation/state had major limits since 1920. In truth we all failed in the First republic to spur into the state that we were gifted, significant metrics in governance, decency and sovereignty. Corruption and dilettantism were rampant.

We failed again since the Second Republic was instated in 1990 to achieve a reconstruction of hearts and minds that would accompany the civil society into modernity. Lebanese Politicians extracted from the sectarian communities, played into divisions, to rampage the state, mismanage resources, funnel capital, embezzle funds, build followers, disrupt the finances, diminish sovereignty, augment the national debt and erase citizens. The actual elite in power, is a dangerous mafia that represents a major threat to the national security and to the Lebanese independence. Not the least they pursue stubbornly through an illegitimate dialogue committee, several picnic meetings, where settings of flowers center the main table of the conference, without any tangible result. Unhappy with their wrongdoing the elite of failed politicians, is keeping distant the true representatives of the people, such as syndicates, entrepreneurs, students , artisans, independents and others from being engaged in such a primary national issue, the electoral law.

Lebanon, where the state lacks behind the extraction of its own resources from the Mediterranean, the national edifice is severely damaged and all risks converge by telling that the actual second republic is heading to its own demise. One can demur but unless we make a proposal, clarity is affected and gloom abundant.

Let us take some facts and numbers into consideration. Lebanon has no president, yet it has 21 acting ministers and 3 resigned , 128 members of parliament, 2 main levels of administrative divisions, the Muhafazat counting also BAALBECK/HERMEL and AKKAR; and 27 CAZAS (QADA’A) with Beirut the capital.
Lebanon has approximately 3.400.000 registered voters, about 2.300.000 million refugees, and it has 1.1 Lebanese who emigrated in each four families. The highest birth rate is in the north and the highest death rate in the BEKAA, it is thought that illiterate residents (less than 7 years of school) still account for approximately 400.000.

Lebanon has about 1120 municipalities and approximately 1500 villages; it has thousands of public officials and employees, ranging from politicians, to armed forces (Army, FSI, GS, Intelligence, Customs, etc.) firemen, central bank employees, public officials in ministries including diplomats and social security, semi governmental institutions such as OGERO, MEA, Green Project, airports, ports, and public schools accounting for more than 220,000 people which on an average of 1 to 4, they interrelate to approximately 900.000 Lebanese citizens in excess.

Lebanon has hundreds of private industries and independent firms, a significant number of lawyers, doctors, engineers, beauty salons, small bakeries, Security agencies, landlords cultivating their lands, a flourishing banking sector employing more or less 80.000 people, a builder/construction and real estate big dimension, and a dynamic jewelry sector employing hundreds of citizens.
The trade sector, Private Hospitals, and the tourism sector (including hotels, restaurants, beaches and travel companies ) most likely account for much of the consumer spending and the national GDP with thousands of employees also. Although unfortunately these are in the midst of a major crisis. Hence the private sector more or less has to do with approximately 900.000 Lebanese citizens in excess. The state here is totally absent if not for tax collection.

Lebanon has also immersed traffics based on smuggling drugs, arms, cars, luxurious items, black markets, money laundering; and these generate illegal income for an unknown number of citizens. And yet the majority of the Lebanese and other residents are living under very tough social conditions and simultaneously the country is politically witnessing a vertical division.

In truth the nation is delineated following two divergent notions; in turnout fewer than 50 % in the latest 2009 elections, and in the number of confessional registered voters almost equivalent in number. Sense making indicates that electoral redistricting  in a new electoral law will not modify the fragile Lebanese equilibrium per se’, unless it will be coupled to a change in minds, where good governance will mean above all accountability and it will respond to a functioning representation.

Obviously Lebanon cannot move forward forever with unity cabinets or technocrat cabinets or other denominations, avoiding any kind of effective delivery of services and upgrade of the state structures and/or infrastructures and reforms. The rule of profiteers and corrupted elite cannot substitute the rule of law and order.

Law 25, adopted in September 2008, is the Law on the Election to the Chamber of Deputies. The adoption of Law 25 followed a three-year campaign for electoral reform, which included the work of the National Commission for Electoral Law (headed by late former minister, Fouad Boutros) which had prepared a draft election law that proposed a new electoral system and important technical improvements to the electoral process. Law 25 is Lebanon’s fourth law since 1990. As widely expected after the parliamentary elections on 7 June 2009, there is a continued push for a new electoral system and for the adoption of key measures to protect secrecy of the ballot, and the establishment of an independent election administration, that will not necessarily take over from the interior ministry rather to act in unison.

The draft law of Late Fouad Boutros is based on a mixed electoral system with proportional representation which is introduced in parallel to the majority system with dual districting. It recommends among several topics; an independent electoral commission to oversee the elections; regulation of campaign spending; regulation of Media coverage of election campaigns; holding the entire national elections on one day; encouraging women candidacy by introducing a women’s quota on candidates’ lists,  and deadlines for candidate and list registration.

In a fine tuning of the proposed electoral system, of the late Fouad Boutros, The Lebanese Opposition suggests that Members of Parliament are voted for as follows:60 Members are elected by voters in each Qada via the majority system ( M) and 68 Members are elected by voters in each Muhafaza via the proportional system (PR).

Electoral Districts and allocation of Seats for all Lebanon will become: North Lebanon 28 seats divided into 12 majority system (M) and 16 proportional (PR )

Northern Mount Lebanon 16 seats divided into 7 majority system (M) and 9 proportional (PR);

Beirut   19 seats divided into 9 (M) and 10 (PR);

Southern Mount Lebanon 19 seats divided into 10 (M) and 9 (PR);

South Lebanon& Nabatieh 23 seats divided into 10 (M) and 13 (PR);

Bekaa & Baalbek/ Hermel  23 seats divided into 12(M) and 11 (PR);

( the division between M and PR respects a simple concept where PR will have always a  preference) ); intakes per caza can be further detailed and these are very simple for intuition (please refer below for examples of the North and Beirut).

The national list will be on a 3 Lebanon concept as it will represent 3 geographic areas/lists/tickets of about 1.1 million voters each. The first will include Akkar, Minieh Dinnieh, Tripoli, Zgharta, Koura, Batroun, Bcharre’ and Baalbeck Hermel totaling 21 seats for parliament, very much balanced in sects and confessions. The second will include Jbeil, Kesrouan, Metn, Baabda, Aley , Chouf and Beirut 1,2,3  totaling 28 very much balanced in confessions . Finally the third will include Zahle’, West Bekaa, Rashaya, Jezzine, Saida, Bint Jbeil, Zaharani, Nabatye, Tyre, Hasbaya Marjayoun totaling 19 , much about the same balance.

There will be also other limits on the age of candidates, where the Qadaa can accept candidates up to 60 years, while the national list can allow candidates up to 65. In counting the votes in the Mouhafaza a proportional system of remainder will be respected and a threshold of 7 % of total voters SUMMING UP the 3 areas will enable admission of lists/parties/entities/movements to the parliament on a national level.

In dissecting the national accord of TAEF, we all agree about the constitutional achievements of the ten sovereign points, yet we all disagree on the practical steps to express governance and guidance, and this is the front door to the third republic.

Following the general elections we need not forget to call on Beirut 1 conference for dialogue as per the constitution, and introduce true reforms paving the way for Millennial to bridge the gap with the institutions. Among these reforms are, limiting the speaker to maximum two mandates during life time, limits to the PM power in concert with the executive power harmony, reviving the option to dissolve the parliament in case of deadlock, to be introduced in tandem to the creation of the Vice president post who will be the custodian of presidential powers until a president is elected. A close time table will be set to define the defense strategy and find the formula where non state actors will be included in the state.

Time is ripe for a new mixed electoral law to be approved by Mid September and elections to be called anytime starting 02 October up to end of February the latest.

My forecast is an absolutely new parliament full of energy and dynamism, all talents for Lebanon.

Wish all candidates luck, and above all I wish success and victory to all candidates and lists running under the banner of The Lebanese Opposition.

Vinca il Migliore .

Thank You,

For reference

http://policylebanon.org/Modules/Ressources/Ressources/UploadFile/8055_24,08,YYboutrosdraftguideen.pdf

https://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/ifes_lebanon_esb_paper030209_0.pdf

https://thinkingdice.wordpress.com/2016/02/19/strategic-white-paper/

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Lebanon/160-lebanon-s-self-defeating-survival-strategies.pdf

(North Lebanon seats total 28

e.g. Tripoli 4 M ( Sunni 2 Alawi 1 G Orthodox 1)  4 PR ( sunni 3 maronite 1) Total 8

Minnieh / Danniye 1 M ( Sunni)  2 PR ( Sunni)  Total 3

Akkar*      3 M ( Greek Orthodo 1 Sunni 1 Maronite 1)  4 PR ( Sunni 2 Alawite 1 Greek Orthodox 1) Total 7

Zghorta    1 M  ( Maronite 1)   2 PR ( Maronite 2 )  Total 3

Becharre     1 M ( Maronite )  1 PR ( Maronite )  Total 2

Batroun   1 M ( Maronite ) 1 PR ( Maronite)  Total 2

Koura 1 M (Greek Orthodox) 2 PR (Greek Orthodox) Total 3 )

Beirut seats total 19 divided into 9 majority system (M) and 10 proportional (PR)

District 1 will have 5 M ( Greek Catholic 1 , Armenian Orthodox 2 , Greek Orthodox 1, Maronite 1 ) , District 2 will have 2 M (  Sunnis 2),and District 3 will have 2 M ( Sunnis 2),  while the 10 Proportional to be voted on the same list/movement in the area 2 will be ( Minorities 1, Armenian Orthodox 1, Sunni 2 , Greek Orthodox 1, Armenian Catholic 1, Shiite 2 , Druze 1 , Evangelical 1).