Greetings and Good Day,
“It is important how we view the youth of our nation. To simply consider them as new age voters will be a big mistake. They are the new age power.” Narendra Modi ( Indian prime Minister)
Following the successful attempt to gain minds and hearts by recently elected Indian prime Minister, one can ask where the world’s biggest democracy is heading.
Is it only to recover the economy and set a zone of influence in the Indian Ocean or also to play a decisive role in world politics?
The latest position expressed by the defense minister (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/india-defends-decision-on/1297804.htmln ) to defend the Indian decision not to ratify the WTO global trade deal, was perhaps a direct answer to the questions posed by Ambassador Blackwill, during a speech in June to his Indian audience.
The Ambassador defined the vital US interests as follows: 1. Prevent a WMD, major terrorist or cyber attack on the American homeland; 2. Maintain the global balance of power and prevent the emergence of a hegemonic rival on the Eurasian landmass; 3. Ensure U.S. allies’ survival and their active cooperation with the U.S. in shaping an international liberal order based on democratic values and the rule of law in which the U.S. can thrive; 4. Prevent the emergence of hostile major powers or failed states on U.S. borders; 5. Ensure the viability and stability of major global systems (trade, financial markets, supplies of resources, etc.).
He then asked what can be the Indian vital interests.
In a continuous effort to help on assessing the global events, perhaps we need to define Iranian vital interests. These can be 1. Defend the Homeland and the Islamic revolution as a global movement, 2. Project the Iranian influence on the Middle Eastern and Hormuz land and sea mass, 3. Ensure Iranian allies survival and active cooperation in shaping a regional order based on the supreme leader rule, 4. Manipulate and exert political and or military maneuver to keep control on states located on Iranian borders and beyond, 5. Ensure the downsizing of Israel if not its own dissolution as regional foe.
Based on above we can imagine the immense challenge ahead, opposing divergent interests and generating the actual disorder in the Levant. It is a fact that the IS created revolving doors in Syr/aq and it assumed control on Mosul Dam and on new Oil fields to aliment its own expenses. While the Iraqi state and the Syrian dictator Assad are both failing miserably to express any compromise for governance with their own opposition.
The transition in course, with high instability led to a revolving door in Arsal in Lebanon, where the Lebanese army has two costly choices. In truth Arsal is not Nahr Bared , considering the size of the area, the ethnicity involved, the number of operatives on ground, and the weapons deployed. Hence the first choice is to embark on a lethal campaign that will drain the army resources and capabilities coupled to high political risks, simply because you go to war with the army you have not the army you want, the second option is to regroup and declare the area surrounding Arsal a no go zone, from where you can exit but you do not enter.
My perception is that geography will lead by itself to a struggle between Arsal and Hermel where the long range missiles of Hezbollah are placed, and this will weaken the Iranian regional formula further. Hezbollah in Lebanon can’t have it both ways, what is his is his and what is ours is his also.
Therefore we can expect Lebanese military planners of the army to negotiate and set a buffer zone, while Hezbollah will feel the heat and proceed with the interference in regional issues as per Iranian orders. The regional open conflict indirectly exposes the presidential plan B of Hezbollah, simply because the army commander is playing on high stakes.
Our duty is to honor fallen cadres, ranks and files of the army, Lieutenant Dany Harb’s burial is today (May he and his fallen fellows rest in peace), and to express solidarity, but in no case to go for a military suicide.
Close to Lebanon, in Gaza a mighty army the IDF withdrew after 28 days of hostilities, regrouped and shifted tactics. In front of asymmetric enemy, an army must be very cautious not to derail its supplies, its own preparedness and or weaken the morale of the troops, even if popular support is consistent.
So even if the cease fire is holding in Gaza, the negotiations will not yield, as contenders require two opposed conditions. Hamas is asking for full access from borders while Israel is stressing for demilitarization. So much charcoal is on fire from Gaza to Mosul, passing by Arsal and Lattakia, where Assad is sitting like a lame duck waiting for salvation to be delivered from his tutor Qassem Suleimani , sleeping often in Samarra to defend Baghdad from its likely fall.
Somewhere something is wrong, and most likely it is the strategy of Dr Obama versus Iran, where he invested muchly on a sole track; the nuclear negotiation, while he can pursue the approach of several Joint plans of action in different sectors, energy, technology, security, trade, construction, environment, agriculture, etc…
What is the solution? Shall we wait until September until the meetings in Vienna with the P5 + 1 resume and keep going until November 24 or we can trace a political map from now?
The easiest way to start is in Lebanon, where rational thinking lead us to set the priorities in electing a president, forming a transition cabinet delegated to approve an electoral law and to supervise general elections, afterwards go on comprehensive reforms of the system, transforming it from a feudal middle ages banana republic into a modern federal rotational republic, strong of institutions, different administrative assets and of a capable national army.
The political elite in Lebanon having their allegiance to external powers will submit to the orders, being simple pirates and corrupt yes men. Whenever actual dynamics will continue blocking two general candidates in Lebanon ( Aoun and Kahwaji), then I can see advancing only a secular option that will bring about resilience in defining the regional agreement.
This secular wake up is undoubtedly best expressed in Mrs. Nadine Moussa as a fervent politician looking for Lebanese vital interests.
My sincere advice for all parties involved is to shorten the suffering of the people and to embark on a track of common sense, in nation building and in state affairs.
Murmurs already abound about a new Geo-economics and geopolitical Middle East, concomitant with the centennial of WWI that defined the first line in the sand, set by a French and a British.
“A nation is not defined by its borders or the boundaries of its land mass. Rather, a nation is defined by adverse people who have been unified by a cause and a value system and who are committed to a vision for the type of society they wish to live in and give to the future generations to come.” Fela Durotoye
Greetings and Good day,
“A fatal blow is the hit that causes death, a coup de grace “
In a continuous effort to walk through world events, I will mention only, four major news that filled our screens in the last couple of days. Nuclear talks, Gaza, Lebanese state dissolution, and MH 17 downing.
The extension of nuclear talks between the P5+1 and the Islamic Republic until November 24 coupled to assets unfreeze of 2.6 Billion dollars, in its context indicates the willingness of world powers to continue talking, while simultaneously dragging into the process, without reaching any significant result. Freeze for unfreeze seems to be the formula of talks for talks where the financial masters of the universe are willing to extend a financial life aid to an overstretched Iran equivalent to 600 Million dollars per month to get a nuclear freeze in exchange. There are two opposed views, the first adopted by the Islamic republic establishment willing to expand enrichment in a 3 to 5 years time frame, possibly ending with a breakout of nuclear capability, and adding by this complexity to an already difficult Eurasian Theater. While the second view is to create a nuclear free zone in the Levant and the gulf in 30 to 40 years time frame, which is the best option for all the families living in the area. It goes without saying that one view excludes the other, and the US in its desire to support Israeli security fails to discern between normal relations with Iran and nuclear talks. In truth focusing only on nuclear talks will impede normalization to become a reality, hence subordinating the advancement in relations to a security topic. Exploring other development sectors becomes a necessity in realism. The magic formula can become Freeze (enrichment and centrifuges), Unfreeze (financial assets on monthly quota) and Develop (common projects), where develop will be key to accelerate toward convergence rather than divergence. We all know that Iranian geopolitics in the Levant are spreading a lot of instability and projecting a poor vision, lacking of respect for particular specifics of each reality. Yet this can only change, because radicals led by the supreme leader are incapable to express a model of successful governance and excel in an intellectual integrity, therefore the Iranian opposition is meant eventually to prevail.
However and while time passes by, all eyes are today on Gaza, where the 2012 cease fire is not holding anymore. In its miscalculation, Hamas is overestimating its own power and committing a major error in its calculus. In fact Hamas needs to come to table for an immediate cease fire, or else it will lose the political significance in the eyes of the Israeli establishment. Hamas at its beginning was facilitated by Israel to create a schism within the Palestinian factions, and that played well for Israel’s security for some years, the deeds are that the West bank is politically divided from Gaza and that no agreement is reached with a divided Palestine. The actual meaning of the flare up of hostilities is a major change in the status-quo, simply because Hamas lost its importance for Israel. What is expected is that as early as tomorrow Sunday the defensive edge will expand significantly and will evolve its objectives to become elimination of the political representation of Hamas in Gaza. While taking out tunnels, a naval commando will be lifted on the Gaza shore to assess where the command center is and erase it by intelligent and deep going bombs. Furthermore it is most likely that Gaza will be divided in two entities where Erez crossing will represent the interests of its north and Rafah crossing of its south. Israel knows very well that divide and conquer can yield temporary partial security, and that long term full security can be ensured only by agreements between strong states. The modeling of the new Middle East map will be based on Egypt, Turkey, the Islamic Republic, the Islamic State ( Syraq, Jordan, Palestine), the Gulf Federation, and the Lebanese Republic that will anchor the Syrian western coast. How this new map will rotate versus energy exploitation and infrastructure projects is yet to be seen.
A major sign of approaching of the moment of reckoning is that the Lebanese state is at its dissolution zenith. In his latest speech yesterday Mr. Hariri puts a rubber stamp on the Lebanese state incapability to evolve. Similarly the leader of Hezbollah is incapable to defend the state as he promises in his talkative shows, and all other politicians talking about fire or tempo for presidential election are accusing much fatigue and infertility to say the less.
The talks about the emission of a new EuroBond and the requirement of the ministry of finance to have a legislative session to authorize stipends spending, or other national security issues going from wages, tenants law, army capability and doctrine, electricity, state budget, unemployment, electoral law, state reforms to devolution, etc ; are only a confirmation of the confusion and full panic and hysteria in Lebanese governance.
Lebanon needs a lady president that implements radical reforms of the system, and limits the role of the political pirates and thieves including the Hariris, Aoun, Franjieh, Sanioura, Goubran Basil, Gemayels, Jounblat, Geagea and Hezbollah, His Corruption the speaker and all the rest of the cartels and the mafias, from oil, electricity to bankers and monopolies of trade and other filibusters of water and medicines.
Hence the president of vacuum and/or the president that will prolong this failed system are much about the same, two sides of the same coin, similar to Mr. Berri and to Mr. Hanna Gharib.
Lebanon most needs intellectual purity to declare a state of emergency in norms, ethics and values. The state is rotten and the nation is broken. The essence of the civil society is vilified, by sectarian divisions instated by feudal pirates having foreign allegiance, instead of being united behind secular terms leading to a Swiss model of presidential council with rotation, a strong army securing the land and the borders and a tiger economy spurring growth. Demographic/refugees problems and infrastructure detriment will add to the climate of insecurity if not solved with rationality. The lady president, who has a strong record in activism and reforms, and beyond all doesn’t belong to Lebanese historic insignificance since the independence, will need to grasp the geopolitical momentum , give a fatal blow to the old system, and be ready to step in for a new system and accountability.
The pirates need to have some rehabilitation and go to pension. These cartels of robbery and denigration must be put in jail, as they failed to create a peaceful society where truth flies supreme.
The downing of MH 17 is a blatant example of lateral consequences, where tragedy adds to the ignorance of politicians and failed chess masters a’ la Putin. Pressure will mount increasingly on the Kremlin for the lack to respect international norms abiding by Ukrainian aspirations for independence. This guy and his close circle of yes men are acting like thugs and ultimately they are not tutoring the principled interests of the Russian world. The Russian culture is liberal and advanced in its modernity of thought, and the oligarchs in power are leading the Russian flag into the mud. Unless dear monsieur Putin will not wake up from his long and dormant winter in sense making, I am afraid we will be witnessing an upscale in the confrontation, where every penny will be taken out the markets, impeding them to finance the Russian state in its effective needs to proceed with the shortsighted policy of an only oil oriented economy.
To end I will say that Chinese efforts to become a maritime power are most welcome, the great Chinese nation used to build enormous naval ships and roam the oceans, traveling the seas will widen the horizons and increase the interaction with the world. The Silent Service of US submarines will be escorting these efforts and ensure the peaceful character of the full cooperation between both nations.
Observers might be induced to hesitate about the course of world events, and undoubtedly there is a coming back in baking consequential policies, in the furnace of western geopolitical gusto.
“Strategic thinking is a mental process, at once abstract and rational, which must be capable of synthesizing both psychological and material data. The strategist must have a great capacity for both analysis and synthesis” General Andre Beaufre
Greetings and Good Day,
“When the sky is empty of peace, and the prevailing war, is tearing away your newborn’s eye, until the end of his life I grieve for your future, I grieve for the future.” Had the sky been blue? Rira Abbasi.
I traveled to Iran on several occasions and could only savor the best hospitality and the greatness of the population, a nation immersed in milk and honey, land for the brave soul.
Along its history, Persia developed acceptance with neighboring populations and it was distinguished in its desire for coexistence. The passage of different armies since Alexander couldn’t alter the infusion of time in the Iranian geography.
Is it the destiny of Tehran to encroach the mountain it lays on? Or it will expand the sand of thought into a development of trade and accomplishment of openness?
Let me help you Qassem as you are entrenched in different theaters, and your plans are not delivering the appropriate design. As usually plans do not correspond to the reality.
Perhaps Iranian modern history was marked by three major events, the coup orchestrated by the CIA/MI6, the Islamic Revolution advent and the energy/nuclear sector development.
However and most importantly in view of current regional multiple crisis in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Afghanistan , coupled to the deadline in nuclear talks on July 20, history is pushing again to mark Iran and put on it its own imprimatur. It is normal in the global arena to have friends and foes, and to have a vision and/or a lack of it, yet allow me to tell you that there is no leader today in Iran that can develop a concept of agile operations and responsiveness as you do Qassem.
Obviously I will not remind you of Beirut, Buenos Aires, India, Thailand or Burgos, but I will open your eyes to our today’s July 8th geopolitical challenge in Gaza, where Israel will position two whole IDF armored divisions right up to the Gaza border within 48 hours, waiting for orders.
Or shall I invite you to watch the video of Caliph Ibrahim in Mosul?
Qassem, responsiveness is absolutely a quality for field commanders, but you are also a thinker and a political soul, hence your patrimony and major asset today is to understand the importance of compromise to reach a deal.
In Iraq it is important to keep the nation united by a new policy of inclusiveness expressed by a new leader, be him Chalabi or Hakim, yet definitely no more Maliki. The soonest done, the best.
In Syria it is important to keep the nation united by a new policy of inclusiveness expressed by a new empowered PM that will conduct a transition for 4 years that will end by a presidential interruption; you can refer to a study on this https://www.norlarnet.uio.no/pdf/news/announcements/conference_2009_presentations/leiv_marsteintredet_paper.pdf . The soonest you do this the best.
In Afghanistan as you know a scandal is coming up in the ballots where the candidate Abdullah already refused the preliminary results; and the July 22nd date for final results, might well bring another area of instability next to Iranian borders.
Good times passed when Iran cooperated with the US to secure Afghanistan. Are those days gone Qassem? You know that the shortest way for US troops to withdraw from Afghanistan is through Iranian territory, why you shouldn’t pick up this opportunity?
In Lebanon there is a presidential vacuum, and you know very well that your puppeteers will not be elected, as Lebanon needs a reformist president who will pave the way for a Swiss model although imperfect to prevail. Lebanon a land dominated by pirates can’t wait long before major security challenges threaten the entirety of the reigning formula. Trust me if you don’t work with me to reform, your partners will be the losers, and if you need a name to start with, you can google, “Nadine Moussa for presidency 2014” on FACEBOOK. The soonest …, the best.
Yesterday the Supreme Leader announced he trusted that the team in Vienna will defend the nation interests! Oh really? Are Iran’s interests in nuclear development and international defiance or to join regional peace efforts and develop a conference for peace with all players similar to the Conference de Paris?
Qassem, I hope you are aware about Convergent Technologies, Dual-Use Weaponry and the Global Balance of Power, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?ots591=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4&lng=en&id=181142
Iran survived history and it will do so again, it is not nuclear Iran that spurs power to your great nation, it is your own people, human coexistence, universal rights and a positive dualism leading to an effective pursue of the truth by technology and science approach.
Opposition is very consequential to the cause of justice, and your vision must be inclusive to your opponents, this is about leadership.
Leadership Qassem, is to express guidance for all the peoples, I know that you are facing many powers and that you suffered an unjust war with Iraq, but now you need to express your independent views and the rule of Persian narrative as a partner for peace, not as a commander in war with a perpetual enemy.
When you hit a wall Qassem, you can always recur to the bargain, don’t be a merchant, but be a leader of international stature.
Develop your vision, and impress with your talent in peace keeping and nation building.
I won’t take any more of your time, next Sunday we will watch the soccer finale, by then I hope you will come up with something. Kindly accept my letter as a strong gesture, where I tend my hand to you.
Failure to indicate the way, the Iranian way for peace, will bring alternatively only one thing; unfortunately war.
Think Qassem, think.
“Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and right doing there is a field. I’ll meet you there.
When the soul lies down in that grass, the world is too full to talk about.” ― Rumi
Greetings and Good Day,
“ When one fled past, a maniac maid, And her name was Hope, she said: But she looked more like Despair; And she cried out in the air; “ The Masque Of Anarchy – Percy Bysshe Shelley.
In an effort to understand the dynamics of global current affairs, it is commonly accepted to focus on challenges and situations as a short way to define policies and options.
Resolving international or regional crisis is part of effective governance, while planning and implementing rational policies, constitute another significant part.
Whenever we have a close look to the world today, we can notice China’s anti corruption and assertive sea measures, we can also notice the newly pronounced on July 1st Russian world doctrine of Mr. Putin, and ultimately a spread in lack of quorums stretching from Baghdad to Beirut as a cross boundaries Ebola.
Observers are usually used to interpret finance/energy/food/water agreements as a prelude for a better understanding of the decades to come. Interests fly supreme and often in sharp contrast, for instance Uzbekistan is being isolated from the electricity grid of “ Khuzestan” (the Caliph Ibrahim will be happy by this designation), while Bulgaria is being integral part of the South Stream gas line reaching Vienna and south Italy.
We know that Nabucco pipeline will not materialize, but we also know that a new route from Kirkuk to Eilat, passing by Ceyhan and Ashkelon is running.
In the effort of the Zionist project to divide and conquer the Middle East, Kurdistan and “Alawistan” represent two pillars in the new map. The financial masters of the universe while supporting the Zionist projects fail to consider the long term vision and the true interests of the state of Israel and I will elaborate.
Figuring out the geopolitical deadlocks, we can easily spot the Donbas in Ukraine, the Raqqa/Ninewa in the Syraq theaters, and Gaza strip in the Isra/line theaters.
We know that the Dow reached 17000, that Europe is trying hard to defeat deflation, and that Japan is having a positive momentum coupled to partnerships with India and Australia. What remains to be seen is how China will express its own rise in the decade to come until 2025.
Unavoidably China needs to continue its transit from Qing Empire, to modern nation, up to world economic leader. In order to do so, it needs to consider the traditional role of the US as guardian of the maritime order that followed WWII and also the US recently envisioned Asian pivot in terms of placing military assets and hardware in different countries in the Asia Hemisphere. China’s future stands in the vision to elaborate a new doctrine of the seas based on a joint combination, a multifaceted tandem with the WEST. Since the McCarthy mission to China the cooperation is net to reveal itself on the world stage as a “Realpolitik” requirement.
“Given that the Asia-Pacific is where the interests of China and the United States intertwine the most, the drill also shows that, though the two countries differ on certain issues, they have been making concrete steps toward building trust.” http://eng.mod.gov.cn/DefenseNews/2014-06/26/content_4518701.htm
So in the era of border changes, energy requirements, demographic trends and food needs, the colonial centennial order is faltering in the ME, while the schism of terrain couldn’t yet express a clear distinction, between federal states, regions, nations and powers. A geopolitical earthquake is moving bottom up and sustaining this immense change is ironically the oil trade between Assad and ISIS.
Lebanon the “Indispensable nation” is torn apart by embezzlement, cartels, mafias, pirates, mismanagement, corruption and a RESISTANCE incapable to protect the state in these dire moments. The pirates in power could deliver so far only a sectarian divide along which the populace is better described and foreign powers better served. Lebanese political pirates are treating issues of national security with insufficiency; topics of primary importance are being diverted into vested interests of the cartels. Tenant’s law, wages, university nominees, public administration, devolution, refugees, energy, water, electricity, army, order, economy, education, terrorism, law, justice and reforms, all are being blinded by the pirates serving themselves and paying tributes to their foreign masters.
The indispensable nation is in dire need of true leaders of international caliber, capable to express foreign policy that affirms the role of Lebanon to be the Chef of the regional cuisine in International relations. To do so Lebanon must start by electing a new president, approving a new electoral law, introducing reforms a’ la Suisse model and recuperate lost terrain in regional peace and cooperation. The Lebanese third republic is obligatory as much as a deal between Iran and the P5+1 is likewise. In a recent article two thinkers expressed their view about a Maginot line in nuclear negotiation, and in an effort on helping the negotiation to succeed we need to consider that within the 50 years vision to have a nuclear free zone, it is pivotal to live the next ten years in peace possibly.
In truth while I am convinced that the interests of the state of Israel are to kick start a bilateral negotiation with Iran to free the area from nuclear weapons, I tend to consider that this long term objective is difficult to attain shortly. Therefore and based on this consideration the positioning of the nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 need to dose well at least 3 phases.
The phase one is where Iran will have an acceptable and limited margin for research and enrichment while keeping short at least one year from breakout capability; phase two is to anchor Iran within the regional context based on economic/energy/resources synergies, and finally the phase three where Israel and Iran should get together and free all of us from the nuclear threat.
Unless a war is in the making, an extension in negotiations to January 2015 is not only plausible but also substantial and consequential even if coupled to a lot of pressure in several theaters, ISIS advance on Al Muthanna to oblige Maliki to desist and Chalabi to emerge, neutralizing Assad in Syria into a marginal role, impeding the candidates of Hezbollah Michel Aoun and/or others from acceding to the presidency in Lebanon.
Iran and Russia need to learn that they must give in order to take, this is how things work.
Russia can continue its special war in Ukraine, and Iran through Hajj Qassem can proceed to stretch thin in the crescent, but they know well that they badly need a compromise.
Further deterioration in Ukraine will bring new sanctions on Russia and further instability in Syraq and Lebanon will play only into the hands of Israel the arch enemy of Iran.
Obviously this might seem wishful thinking or simplistic views, but in my perspective these are much better than a major chaos coupled to regional wars.
Is it better to destabilize Jordan and Af/Pak further for minerals and shale oil? Or would it be making sense to elaborate alternatives and different prisms?
From above Israel should free with Iran the Middle East, the WEST must share with China to have a better world, and Russia needs to embrace Europe for a better design for humanity.
A reformed Lebanon enlightened and united in purpose, will play an enormous role in expressing guidance and support for world peace. A role that Lebanese pirates of today can only derail and jeopardize.
The Iranian Supreme leader and hajj Qassem both need to set a different course,
“The indispensable first step to getting the things you want out of life is this: decide what you want.” Ben Stein
Greetings and Good Day,
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to Victory; Tactics without Strategy is the noise before defeat “Sun Tzu
It is no coincidence that the Iraqi Parliament will convene from July 1st to start the formation of a new government, and the nuclear talk’s new round is rescheduled for July 2nd.
Starting from the nuclear needs of Iran Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai wrote an article recently http://thebulletin.org/meeting-irans-nuclear-fuel-supply-needs7224 , which is very interesting and leads us directly to the Iranian foreign policy and strategic set.
We know that there are presently 3 countries in waiting for governance and solutions, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Following the Iraqi elections a winner emerged in the person of an ineffective Prime Minister Mr. Maliki, and we are willing to evaluate the steps he will take when the parliament will kick start the legislative mandate and will require as per constitution to form a cabinet within a month.
Meanwhile a new capital is in the making Mosul, and unprecedented change in boundaries since a centennial is being implemented. Kurd leaders are willing to endorse the idea of a new Iraq, and world powers are unable to detect where the actual dynamics will lead.
In Syria the US/Russian/International cooperation led to end the threat of CW, yet the tragedy of the re-election of Assad on the western part of the country is another indicator of the Iranian stubborn attitude to exert projection of power, acting as a regional spoiler without the option of stability capability. Feeding Assad is a very useful strategy to drain the resources of Iran and its proxies.
In Lebanon there is in place a vacuum and a clear failure of Iran’s proxies to get their pawn elected as president, Michel Aoun.
“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results “Winston Churchill
Adding to the regional complexity, the nuclear difficulties, the sanctions, and the internal opposition, I can see the regime in Tehran much in need of a fresh air.
It is clear that the supreme leader and other revolution agencies are pulling the strings in Tehran, yet these guys are losing international ground.
The US should not only understand Iran’s concerns for nuclear fuel, but it also needs to put in place the reflection of the Iranian establishment’s failed regional model on the nuclear negotiations.
Sticking to realism, there is an opportunity to draft an upgrade to the joint plan of action where a very tiny ease on cash sanctions can be enlarged, in exchange for trust building measures. The six months time frame until January 2015 will be precious for both parties to reposition and gather momentum for further cooperation.
Ironically Qassem Suleimani is the Iranian point man for the Iranian model to be piloted, and paradoxically he is the same point man on who the US needs to invest to achieve the long term strategic vision of pipelines to replace missiles.
Definitely with the hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran will need to set priorities , and I presume that whenever Qassem will start somewhere in exerting his leadership, a compromise needs to be found in Lebanon by the election of a reformist female president (Nadine Moussa), not a pawn for Tehran.
Pipelines are the route for an enormous shift in International relations and the best opportunity for the state of Israel to generate an environment of cooperation and just peace with all its neighbors.
That said, a note of merit should be addressed to Vladimir Putin who publicly asked the DUMA to take out the option of military engagement in Ukraine.
Bravo Vladimir, he starts listening to the markets, and he needs to go a mile further instead of proceeding with his special war, he needs to help on Inter-Ukrainian dialogue, with the purpose to put in place in the two industrial separatist regions a compromise similar to TRENTINO – ALTO ADIGE in ITALY, an autonomous region with German spoken language having full rights. Afterwards he needs to create on the opposite side of the Russian border, a free trade Russian zone, with a revolving door / open boundaries mechanism similar to the one between France and Italy; this will enhance exchange and set the basics for a future partnership with Europe.
Furthermore having signed the gas agreement with China and after establishing a free zone between Ukraine/Russia, Vladimir can implement the strategy to diversify and re-position Russia into a new model (not only energy), hence a favorable legislative and investment environment will be in place to promote, start-ups for financial products, specialized industrial items for new sectors (aerospace, 3d, commercial drones, etc), charter wellness tourism etc.
Ultimately after the cooperation success US/Russia/Other powers in the Syrian CW, a new page must be opened based on effective cooperation, PUTIN needs to realize that Crimea chapter is over and the world needs to move forward. This scenario is much better than the special war to continue.
“Travel becomes a strategy for accumulating Photographs” Susan Sontag
THIS IS AN OPEN LETTER TO THE MARONITE PATRIARCH of ANTIOCH and the WHOLE LEVANT.
Let the little children come to me, and do not hinder them, for the kingdom of heaven belongs to such as these.” Matthew 19: 14
It is common sense to accept that the pastoral letter and message of Christianity is to spread the word, in a prophecy of belief. Life is about people; hence thoughts, emotions and actions need to converge to enact a design of progress.
While Monotheism in the holy Orient consists of a common message, faith couldn’t avoid mixing temporal vision with political influence; it diluted the dogma and inflated the regulations for the collectivity.
Isn’t the “Raison d’être” of Lebanon to define the correlation between the classic spiritual message and the geopolitical national interest? The MARONITE church struggled since centuries to condense the independence of the white land (LUBNAN) in an entity of freedom.
The freedom beyond diversity is a cause, very enriching in tolerance, and pervasive in human acceptance.
MARONITE DIOCESES were inaugurated in LOSANGELES and in SAOPAOLO and the trend is set for the MARONITE pivot to MUMBAI and SHANGHAI to become within reach, in a non distant future. The Lebanese Diaspora, all of it, is distinguished in giving and in love.
Some will debate the modern role of the MARONITE pastoral mission to reach its global zenith with humanity, yet everyone agrees that the fulcrum of the SEE of BKERKE’ goes hand in hand with BAABDA in elevating the peaceful cedars to fond with mother earth.
This is not because Lebanon should remain factional or confessional, but simply because Lebanon will require its flout to be filled by the stream of the universal ether.
“A word or a smile is often enough to put fresh life in a despondent soul.” Thérèse de Lisieux
Where do we stand today in the presidential vacuum, with a persisting lack of quorum? How can you play an embracing role, ending the impasse of the republic? Is it by calling on a protest movement and/or by promoting an advanced proposal to set an example in governance for citizens of all kind and all colors?
Shall we wait eternally for the Lebanese mafia to settle its own divergence or for the regional ramifications to pick a name for us?
Can we hold our breath for thieves, filibusters and profiteers to guide Lebanon into dissolution?
Needless to say that you father must lead with a secure path the nation to the shore of amenity.
“Be who God meant you to be and you will set the world on fire.” Catherine of Siena
The advancement of the Lebanese interest and of the MARONITE pivot, stands in an incremental initiative that you will need to adopt and enact.
In Lebanon today there are two platforms, one having a social agenda (wages, women rights, economic recovery, devolution, social equality and security, etc), the second having a corporate agenda (vested interests,banking sector, privatization, neutrality, refugees camps, non belligerence with racist Israel, etc), both have visions for governance, and points in common such as the army preparedness, and the oil and gas exploitation. The Lebanese interest stands in generating accountability on both and advancing the benefits for the responsible citizenry.
It is common place that in absence of an elected resident in BAABDA, the legislative branch can’t proceed as much as the delegated body (Cabinet) can’t shoulder the president’s powers but partially.
The deadlock is evident, strikes are called, downgrades are announced, even if at some stage we can think that an intersection between different players will emerge imposed by the game of the interests. The Mafia needs the state to function in order to continue running its illegal business, and armed parties need the state to be a mirror behind which to advance their own geopolitical agenda.
Entangled as we are in the regional and international precarious environment stretching from UKRAINE to GAZA, we Lebanese can’t afford to lose faith.
“Liberty can’t be established without morality or morality without faith”. Alexis De Tocqueville
The latest presidential narrative introduces the strong as a concept of leadership, but strong in what? We are fed up from the war lords, princes of deceit. We don’t want Gemayel , Franjieh, Aoun or Geagea.
Therefore Father, the incremental initiative of BKIRKI will have 3 stages, the first will call on 2 TV debates between 2 contenders: ZIAD BAROUD and NADINE MOUSSA, broadcasted by the CHURCH TV and held open door, where different anchormen and women will address the candidates in different questions and topics.
This democratic debate between different platforms is very healthy for LEBANON. It exerts pressure on deputies to go to the parliament and elect the president from the selection HIS BEATITUDE picked up.
Whenever the vacuum will persist, the second step will be that you will hold together to other churches notables, the PRESIDENTIAL MASS in MARTYR’s SQUARE or at BIEL, on June 29. A further public pressure on the failed elite and on regional actors to spare us their selfishness.
For the triumph of Lebanon, your march will continue up to the end of July in the third stage, where you will ask the parliament for a national address, yes Father you will go to the illegitimate and extended parliament and talk to the deputies representing the nation, informing them that there will be no more extensions and that you expect them to elect a president immediately.
I am certain that the dynamics will play into your strategy, and a further reflection will lead us to the electoral law, introducing the second chamber, where several options are already known.
Based on the above some will reply with a rebuttal indicating this as a flagrant and blatant interference, others will direct their angry reaction on you, yet all those who have no sins will be silenced by your pastoral love.
Wasn’t water transformed into wine? Yes it was says the word.
Raise Father your baton to the lord almighty and draw the line of the presidential election.
It is narrated in the hadith Sahih Muslim that the prophet Mohammad (may peace be upon him) said “Truffles are part of the ‘manna’ which Allah, sent to the people of Israel through Moses, and its juice is a medicine for the eye “ . Moses led the people, crossed the avid desert and received the manna.
This is our MARONITE destiny; this is our pastoral love to settle under the stars, professing the word of discipline, solidarity, modernity and guidance.
“When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty.” John Basil Barn-hill
THANK YOU ,