Dictatorships don’t organize free elections

July 28, 2012

English: Ny Carlsberg Glyptothek, Copenhagen. ...

Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted
Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The greatest loss of time is delay and expectation, which depend upon the future. We let go the present, which we have in our power, and look forward to that which depends upon chance, and so relinquish a certainty for an uncertainty. “ Lucius Annaeus Seneca

As all analysts are making their guess related to the economic global downturn, we do learn that some high profile meetings will take place shortly, to address a coordinated vision to try and find solutions and feasible tools for cure.

It is no secret that the global crisis will last for some years, and its outcome is not clear.

Certainty for uncertainty, present for future, the late Seneca enlightens with some quotes I mention.

In truth if we consider that dictatorships by definition do not organize free elections, we realize a simple fact, that is, anything that follows a dictatorship will be a mere confusion.

By definition a dictatorship rests on a network of interests directed by a very small and tiny restricted circle in command, monopolizing all sorts of pivotal power centers.

Be them military, commercial, diplomatic, juridical or else, hence the aftermath can’t be managed easily without a freefall of the existing order.

To lessen the effects of the end of a dictatorship and diminish the full immersion into chaos, what can be done is to jumpstart an immediate work for reconciliation, fair representation, involvement of the civil society and reconstruction of the state as a tutor to the collectivity.

In the specifics, as the battle for control of Aleppo is raging, observers are keen to consider the day after options with emphasis, while giving perhaps less attention to the present momentum.

There is no light of tomorrow if the night of today will not end.

Therefore energies, sustainment and full power must be focused on the support and guidance to the efforts leading to the demise of the Assad clan.

Grand strategy parameters indicate a complexity of issues that need to be activated and laying some simple considerations we can extract a kinetic paradigm.    

The battle of Aleppo will cost Assad many assets and will not be the last battle in the roar of Syria.

What is most important is that the hit and run tactics, and the layer of defections proceed with ease on the entire territory, leading with certitude to growing erosion.

The rebels can count on fresh human power, and supplies, while the Assad clan is not capable to recruit more militants in its ranks.

This is science.

It means the forces of Assad will crack somewhere in a short time frame and will enlarge the descent into retrenchment.

Enduring in the barracks of Aleppo, draining the regime forces and ammo, will necessarily transform the status quo into more serious lesions in the Assad wounds.

A lethal infection will unavoidably appear. Vital organs will not support the tedious stress.   

Rumors are spreading about the Golan communities joining forces with the rebels and it is becoming clearer that an oyster effect is materializing, where the Assad clan will be pressed from different sides.

Several armies are readying, and build-ups are designated, the best environment for the solo attack to take place by the end of August /beginning of September.

Scenarios for the day after can be evaluated and conversations between experts and articles or studies will be further conducted.    

“Conversation has a kind of charm about it, an insinuating and insidious something that elicits secrets just like love or liquor” Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Thank you,


In terms of Grand Strategy

July 25, 2012

English: Grand Seray d'Alep

English: Grand Seray d’Alep (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Defining a grand strategy in the Levant is a very effective tool to deal with the projection of the IRGC and the supreme leader’s desire to impose a model of tyranny”

It is no secret that international markets are going through a problematic and enduring crisis.

It is understood also that only further monetary easing coupled to a methodical economic approach can imprint a cure.

This consists in reducing drastically taxation, extending regulation holidays to startups, investing in research, and opening to tourism and qualified immigration.

Even if gurus manage to find their way into the financial darkness, we still need to understand how policy makers will translate prowess into success in delivering an international model of cooperating global institutions.

The lack of a clear model as opposed to the western model that emerged after WWII is significant in prompting tension and defiance in international relations.

Going through the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Cold War, the Cuban Crisis, the Wars of Israel, the Gulf wars and the regional conflicts, we do trace a pattern and that is the questioning of the international system without offering a valid alternative.

Although the actual international system is imperfect, considering the problems facing several industrial countries, e.g. Japan which lost a decade in zero growth, Italy approaching a brake up point, the US endangered by incomplete growth indicators and elevated debt, France losing its positioning and orientation in between Germany and a fragmented Euro; we do realize that there is not any consistent effort to define a different workable international frame.

If it is true that the IMF, the UN and many other institutions struggle to walk through national consensus and conflicting interests, it is also true that evolving the role of these forums, requires a high dose of political maturity in the chancelleries.       

From above we can deduce that the present international body mainly tutors western interests.

We can also think that until its contenders do not retrieve a formula of acting together to offer to the world community, a supplemental way, where more peace, education and solidarity are exhibited, the status quo will reign supreme.

Governing powers even if they promote music and fashion, in truth are conservatives and conservants of the status quo.

While contenders of lyrics, by failing to offer a credible substitute, are the patrons of failed revolutions.

What the populace needs is a model of a society where prosperity, liberty and valor can be defended by order and justice.

This brings us to Syria.

We learn that the battle in Aleppo is raging, and that major reinforcements are being dispatched by the Assad clan.

It is obvious that so far the opposition succeeded in engaging and stretching thin the Assad forces, and that the priority will always be to maintain the momentum, keeping the initiative and above all defend the human power, while gradually defeating the dictator.

Talks of a safe haven emerge, to be followed by the installment of a transition cabinet.

In principle the fall of Aleppo while desirable, it shouldn’t come at any cost.

In fact I agree that the kinetic effect of dispersed actions of different value, is also a very effective tool to proceed forward, and that this represents a great investment in terms of cost / benefit.

Beside if it is not Aleppo, it can be Idlib, or it can be another city, where a representative of the transition cabinet will sojourn.

The transition cabinet can be formed and installed in Turkey, and it can seek legitimacy and recognition.

Hence there are different options ahead all leading to the Assad demise in a timeline that will stretch from one month at best, to one year the longest.

 The Syrian connection is a derivative and an innuendo, if contemplated with the Iranian nuclear file.

The focus is still there on the solo attack and the best environment to be created around it to secure an Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah absorption or lack of response.

In terms of Grand Strategy, securing regional balances, easing monetary policies, reducing debt and taxes, spurring growth and startups, reforming international institutions, mentoring popular movements, ensuring the demise of Assad; while tutoring a perfect environment for the solo attack to weaken the contending axis, is the best the US and the West can do in the second semester.

“ Doomsayers and recovery therapists may differ, yet they agree on a clear distinction that exists between an imperfect system and a non system.”

Thank You,          


From Demise to Renaissance

July 23, 2012

Aleppo International Airport.

Aleppo International Airport. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In waiting for a desired reality, imagination can take the lead and set the route for managing the passage from turbulence and demise, to order and renaissance”

Economic operators and market analysts started watching data emerging today from Asia related to the expectations and the possible curves of different currencies or commodities.

Volatility is supreme, and the lack of coordinated leadership is extracting a high toll on the international trade.

We have read several articles about the cure or the doom, yet a substantive plan to exit the stalemate is not drawn with clarity.

 By contrast we learn that on the weekend, Arab Nations issued a call on the Syrian opposition to form a transition cabinet, while Turkey empowered its military power along its border with Syria, Israel manifested implicit warnings versus the CBW and finally the US is exhibiting much dynamism to manage an orderly ousting of the Assad Clan.

The title of the upcoming phase is without doubt: from Demise to Renaissance. 

Helping on all parts, in my perception, there is only one way forward to secure a solid management of the demise and transit it into renaissance.

Looking into a strict military prism, I say that while the Assad failed regime is being engaged in many and different parts of the beloved Syrian nation, the absolute first objective is to take full control of the city of Aleppo and establish a Transition cabinet in it.

What emerges so far, are two contradictions, from one side the regime is short on supplies, it has lost its social role, and it is incapable of defeating the opposition; from another side, it kept a military edge, while failing miserably to protect the population in its diabolic pursue of crushing the righteous opposition.

A human crisis is already emerging with refugees and displaced.

How the Assad clan will balance the kinetic dynamics of dissolution, while keeping control on two red lines the CBW and the fixed wings of the air assets, is yet to be understood.

Obviously the Assad clan is in dire straits, still counting on some loyal brigades, but having lost the command of the Syrian republic.

The fall of Aleppo and the establishment of the transition cabinet with a subsequent call on the friends of Syria to intervene and secure peace and order will be the most important step in the right direction.

The pragmatic demise of Assad and his agony is very convenient for the strategic battle against the Iranian nuclear file.

While observers agree that the process to renaissance is already prescribed in, transition, constitution, referendum, local elections, electoral law, general elections, economic growth, market reform and peace, they all fear that the organized demise is unknown.

The route to an organized demise comes as follows: the fall of Aleppo, establishment of a transition cabinet, control of the entire central/eastern territory, control of Syrian air assets, fixed wings, CBW and missile capability. Finally the fall of Damascus will signal the ultimate step.

It is understood that managing the systematic demise goes in tandem with evolving the planning and preparations for the solo attack of Israeli air assets against two of the Iranian nuclear plants Natanz and Fordow.

Here below is a tentative time table and a sequence: Fall of Aleppo by August 03, Transition cabinet August 06, call on international powers to help secure and control central/east territories by august 08, full defections will be announced, air assets control coupled to securing major concentration of CBW/missiles by august 13, concentration of US naval assets and military hard ware in the gulf, deployment of multinational flotilla in the eastern Mediterranean and the gulf august 14,  solo attack between August 21- September 7,  in presence of a controlled Iranian reaction fall of Damascus by September 13, alternatively in case of an all out war in south Lebanon , a strategic bombing will affect the IRGC, and an Israeli invasion of South Lebanon will take place.  Destruction of Assad will be certain.        

It is hard to believe that everything planned will be delivered, however if we take into consideration the Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah military planners multiple tasks we can figure out their actual problems in taking the initiative.

Steadfastness, preparedness, planning, courage and logistics are all about discipline and warfare for the benefit of global peace.

“ La sensualite’: dimensions du Coeur, parfums d’Amour. A romance, a glance, a nuance “      

Thank you,        


Syrian Transition Cabinet

July 20, 2012

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Opposing changes and shifts is the easiest part, while managing transitions is the task of brave policy makers”

As international markets are struggling and enduring a connected global downturn, remedies are still lacking and leaders can’t express a successful outcome.

We do learn that the UNSC failed again yesterday to propose coordination to the Syrian crisis, and even if the extension to the observer’s mission will be definitely approved today, this doesn’t change anymore the nature of the reality we are facing.

In truth we are in a completely new phase where the Assad Clan is approaching its final stage.

It is a fact that border check points are being taken, and this will pave the way for further supplies to reach the opposition mainstream. Defections are proceeding on daily basis and the battle is still ongoing in Damascus.

Expectations are that the Assad clan will increasingly lose the control on Damascus, and will likely resort to a last ditch by seeking survival in the coastal area.  

CBW and air assets will be monitored constantly and they will not represent a card of survival for the Assad clan, as these are the US , Turkish, Jordanian, Saudi, Qatari , Lebanese

Damascus

Damascus (Photo credit: sharnik)

and Israeli red lines.  

The Assad clan can’t ensure supply lines to sustain a self proclaimed entity, as it will not have peaceful and secure borders, therefore from a strict military view, the Assad demise is within closer reach.

Looking to the facts on ground and to geography, a pipeline from Saudi Arabia crossing Jordan, Syria, Turkey to Europe is now feasible. Connections to this pipeline will be added from Israel and from Lebanon offshore fields and here we are with the most important energy route secured for the upcoming three decades.

What remains to be done is to nurture or create a political government to these areas.

From here the most urgent issue becomes to announce the first transition cabinet in Syria that will start taking care of all issues related to the state and the citizens in a fair, righteous and peaceful method.

The transition cabinet can be announced as soon as possible and it has to guarantee all national and international parts involved, independently from the struggle that took place and the victims that fall for the benefit of freedom.

I can imagine the PM to be as a first step the elected speaker of the SNC and five ministers to take control of the state affairs and unite the country again around its own social society.

Qualified entrepreneurs and independent Syrian personalities will be most welcome to join the new cabinet and take the challenge to offer the great Syrian nation and its glorious population a prosperous future.

The route to normalcy will be announced, by forming a special committee to work on a new constitution and submit it to a referendum, call for new municipal elections and organize free and democratic parliamentary elections.

Daily state affairs will be conducted by a vision of building on the existing and innovating with the spirit of reforms and dynamic economics.    

The transition will take about 12 to 18 months, but the concept is already there to put in place a mechanism of stability.

Beyond the capability of Assad to prolong his agony or not, we need to work for the future as if it is happening tomorrow.           

In the coming days the picture will become clearer and the Iranian file will emerge with all its weight.

We shouldn’t chant victory yet, but we are walking in the right direction.  

 “Education and openness are substantial to create bonds and human acceptance, peace and prosperity shall prevail “

Thank you,   


10 days

July 19, 2012

United Nations Security Council

United Nations Security Council (Photo credit: Amit Chattopadhyay)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Holding the initiative is a pivotal asset in the art of war, cold minds are on demand”

While the economic uncertainty is keeping its pace and no cure seems evident to spur growth and optimism in international markets, geopolitical tensions are adding fuel to an already hard situation.

Objective observers do agree that unless more easing will be applied in China and the US    and a major bailout approved in Europe, economies can’t regain a positive trend.

Much will remain to do in matters of taxation cuts, tourism enhancement, qualified immigration openness and regulation/taxation holidays for startups.

Two events yesterday brought attention to all analysts. The bombs in Damascus and in Burgas airport will undoubtedly open a new phase.

It is understood that the Assad Clan was severely hit, and the only response was the nomination of a new defense minister.

My perception is that the dynamics are all there for the rapid dissolution of the dictatorship.

Media agencies spread the word of the postponement of the vote at the UNSC, and whenever an agreement can’t be reached with Russia after the phone conversation between the two presidents Obama and Putin, I recommend a resolution extending the UN observers for 10 days only implying the regime to end all hostilities.

Events on ground will determine a kinesis of demise, hence in the coming 10 days negotiations can proceed for the enforced sanctions under Chapter VII.

It is crystal clear that the Russian policy on Syria is rotten, yet we need to be patient and faithful, so far we are waiting since many months and 10 days more will not be impossible to digest.

The demise is certain and we need to prepare in the upcoming 10 days for an enforced resolution and to announce a transition cabinet of 5 and a PM that will be ready to take command of Syria.

Russians and Chinese sooner or later will join as the heat will be expanding and threatening interests of all players, especially those linked to energy.

By contrast the explosion in Burgas raises the specter of higher tension between Israel and Iran, and I do recommend only diplomatic options at this stage, until the American build up is completed in the gulf.

What emerges is that the Syrian theater is already fluid, and is used for internal clashes that will simply root the Assad clan out, and replace it by the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian population.

The risk is that Israel might be tempted to amplify its attack on the two nuclear assets, by enacting a preemptive strike in South Lebanon to avert any countermeasure by Hezbollah.

This seems logic in the perspective of military planners, and even here there are two schools of thought. One will limit the solo attack only to two objectives and deal with the consequences appropriately.

The second thought is to avoid any risk and in concomitance of bombing Natanz and Fordow, preempt the south of Lebanon and clear it from missile launchers.

It is obvious that planners will be tempted by the second thought, yet I am confident that cold minds and an extreme control of emotions will support the first thought and limit the solo attack to its strategic context.

Hezbollah will also be tempted to retaliate and show its might and exhibit the allure of absurdity; however it must take the full responsibility of escalation.

In both cases innocent victims will fall.

We all desire a hymn for harmony, but circumstances will necessitate boldness.

“walking between cliffs, we don’t see the risk, we admire courage, preparedness and determination  “

Thank you,


Dear China abstain

July 17, 2012

U.S. Navy ships transit the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Navy ships transit the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo credit: Official U.S. Navy Imagery)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Prevention is an excellent tool to lessen the undesirable effects of geopolitical international crisis”

While observers are looking at the words that the Fed Chairman will say today, it is very likely that he will not give hints on near future QE3.

The continuity of the FED is clear; it is committed to play a positive role in the economy.

While markets are concerned about the volatility and uncertainty, much is happening at UN Security Council, where a new resolution on Syria is expected to be submitted for a vote.

All eyes are on Russia, but a Chinese announcement to abstain or to oppose the resolution without resorting to veto, will definitely be a game changer.

 A joint call by the French and German political leaders to the Chinese leader, on Syria will increase the desirable outcome chances for a sanctions resolution to pass under chapter 7.

In my perception a public call by an article on WSJ, issued on behalf of the Chinese leader and underwritten by European heads of state will be a major attempt to entice China and Russia for a positive role.

It is no secret that defections are increasing and the battle is very close to Damascus now, hence the Assad clan will feel a lot of heat in the coming days, until it will be hopefully transported by Russian naval ships that will dock in Tartous for evacuation.

The Syrian crisis as per many media moguls and experts is expected to be very long, yet I consider the dynamics of the regime sustainability eroding from within, therefore a kinetic effect is approaching where the demise will be evident.

I must praise the US military build-up in the gulf, and more assets will be deployed by end of August better it is, to avoid a major escalation. In truth the human power and fire power, will play a formidable role of prevention and deterrence, enabling the solo attack to have a very limited reaction which is what we are all longing for.

The military planners in the IRGC must see with nude eyes that there is a lot of stuff that will be launched at their sites, and they are better off to absorb the Israeli strike without any reaction.

The best grand strategy for the IRGC is to survive the solo attack. It is expected that the solo attack will cause limited damage, and even if the IRGC will lose its proxies Assad and Nasrallah, this will mean a loss of prestige and soft power projection, but not the annihilation of the IRGC itself.    

The day after is always clearer, where two major nuclear Iranian sites will have significant destruction, the long range missiles program will be halted for a long time by enforced sanctions, the Assad demise a certitude, and Nasrallah losing political and military hold on the Lebanese state a grace for all Lebanese.

A neutral government in Beirut and a Hezbollah military dissolution are the best elements to support the cedar nation.

Mid September is increasingly the right date, just after the US drill in the Hormuz water and the linkage of the new radar in Qatar to intercept upcoming missiles.  

“Numbered are the days for tyrants, and glory will chant in the cockpits”    

Thank you,


The worst case scenario

July 14, 2012

 

English: Superme Leader of Iran (Highest Rank ...

English: Superme Leader of Iran (Highest Rank insignia of the Iranian military) meeting Commanders of Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Army & IRGC & Police). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“the best outcome in geopolitics is definitely to find a compromise with foes and friends alike, peace is much about spreading acceptance and coexistence. Yet, failure to compromise is part of the complexity of interests opposing nations and populations. War is at the horizon.”

Much uncertainty is reigning in the markets worldwide, from the US to Europe to China and other emerging economies. 

Policy makers are struggling to define successful therapies, but a lot of concerns prevail in all circles of the entrepreneurial body on a large scale.

It is of common sense to expect a QE3 in the US as much as an amplified role of the EU bailout fund, coupled to more aggressive Chinese easing actions all to be announced by the end of August.  

These joint efforts will promote growth in the stocks and help companies to auto-finance by resorting to the market.  

Present a major hurdle in the US/EU/Chinese economies, a Russian obsolete soviet stance, a major Syrian crisis and an Iranian standoff, one can only affirm that all pieces for the conflict are in place.

Looking also to the US military buildup in the Gulf, to the recent awkward steps and massacres perpetrated by the Assad Clan, the Iranian tension and the Israeli silence, it is rational to conclude that war is on the horizon.

As mentioned in a previous post, there are two schools of thought, one professing a large conflict and the second instead paving the way for a very limited solo attack on two major nuclear objectives in Iran.

Whenever the solo attack will have limited reactions as expected, we can have long sleeping hours.

But!  What if not?   

In truth what is keeping all and everyone thinking, is the fact that the conflict might spiral out of control.

If it is true that there are precedents in bombing two nuclear reactors without significant reactions, it is also true that the Iranian calculation of profit and loss is not following a clear method.

We all know that the Iranian regime has different centers of power, and it is unknown in this precise moment if the Iranian “Conseil de Guerre” has sufficient moral and national assets to respond to an Israeli attack at will, and gather internal support to maximize its fire reply transmitted through a military plan.

Assuming that the Iranian Conseil de Guerre will have enough resolve and support, let us examine what can be the perfect Iranian plan against an Israeli attack.

The IRGC military planners can set the meaning of victory as a projection of an arc of instability to several countries. However this doesn’t stand from a military perspective, as it will enlarge the front and will require full resources to be displayed for at least 5 to 12 days the time necessary to broker a cease fire.

The Iranian planners will face a dilemma, to succumb to the solo attack and react in a limited overt way and unlimited covert effort, while eventually rebuild the destroyed assets; or to exhibit full might and open all fronts in a confrontation that will see the IRGC losing their proxies (Assad and Nasrallah) and be subjected to a strategic bombing that will erase military/industrial/oil/naval/economic pillars at best.

Examining the worst case scenario for all players, analysts can expect pervasive losses, but the deployment of great human and fire power will ensure the West and Israel a military superiority, that can derail the IRGC meaning of victory.

The maximum damage can be to close Hormuz, to fire missiles on US/Arab bases/assests in the gulf and to attack Israel from South Lebanon, while trying to use WMD in Syria against the population. If  this is the option, I see two impediments, the first is that the West and Israel will not stay idle, rather they will respond at will, and the second is that this wide scale reaction is not linked to a successful Iranian political outcome.

Whenever the IRGC “conseil de guerre” will opt for a worst case scenario, they will lose much of their hard assets and their soft power.  They know also they will come to terms for a cease fire having lost much of their inventory and bargaining chips.

The worst case scenario will put hell of fire on Iran, Syria, Lebanon, other gulf nations and Israel, it will last approximately 17/20 days of sorties on Iran/Syria/Lebanon, will require land deployment in Lebanon (Israel) and Syria (Turkey and Jordan) and will end up in a cease fire brokered by International forums and nations such as a common delegation UN / Swiss/ Norwegian, that will penalize heavily the Iranians.

The problem I see is different.

From my perspective what needs to be defined is the common understanding of victory from a joint Western/US/Israeli ground.

What is the Western/US/Israeli victory in case of a worst case scenario?

Is it attaining full destruction of the IRGC, Hezbollah and Assad assets? 

Determining a new federal regime in Syria uniting different regions , that will tutor all international powers, a different government in Lebanon working for reforms, prosperity and peace, and to end a very weakened Iranian government that will cede part of its sovereignty ( in matters of armament and energy development ) ?

“What is at stake is to divert the supreme leader policy from aggressive to tolerant, and to liberate the Syrian population and the lebanese state”  

 Thank you