Greetings and Good Day,
“The greatest loss of time is delay and expectation, which depend upon the future. We let go the present, which we have in our power, and look forward to that which depends upon chance, and so relinquish a certainty for an uncertainty. “ Lucius Annaeus Seneca
As all analysts are making their guess related to the economic global downturn, we do learn that some high profile meetings will take place shortly, to address a coordinated vision to try and find solutions and feasible tools for cure.
It is no secret that the global crisis will last for some years, and its outcome is not clear.
Certainty for uncertainty, present for future, the late Seneca enlightens with some quotes I mention.
In truth if we consider that dictatorships by definition do not organize free elections, we realize a simple fact, that is, anything that follows a dictatorship will be a mere confusion.
By definition a dictatorship rests on a network of interests directed by a very small and tiny restricted circle in command, monopolizing all sorts of pivotal power centers.
Be them military, commercial, diplomatic, juridical or else, hence the aftermath can’t be managed easily without a freefall of the existing order.
To lessen the effects of the end of a dictatorship and diminish the full immersion into chaos, what can be done is to jumpstart an immediate work for reconciliation, fair representation, involvement of the civil society and reconstruction of the state as a tutor to the collectivity.
In the specifics, as the battle for control of Aleppo is raging, observers are keen to consider the day after options with emphasis, while giving perhaps less attention to the present momentum.
There is no light of tomorrow if the night of today will not end.
Therefore energies, sustainment and full power must be focused on the support and guidance to the efforts leading to the demise of the Assad clan.
Grand strategy parameters indicate a complexity of issues that need to be activated and laying some simple considerations we can extract a kinetic paradigm.
The battle of Aleppo will cost Assad many assets and will not be the last battle in the roar of Syria.
What is most important is that the hit and run tactics, and the layer of defections proceed with ease on the entire territory, leading with certitude to growing erosion.
The rebels can count on fresh human power, and supplies, while the Assad clan is not capable to recruit more militants in its ranks.
This is science.
It means the forces of Assad will crack somewhere in a short time frame and will enlarge the descent into retrenchment.
Enduring in the barracks of Aleppo, draining the regime forces and ammo, will necessarily transform the status quo into more serious lesions in the Assad wounds.
A lethal infection will unavoidably appear. Vital organs will not support the tedious stress.
Rumors are spreading about the Golan communities joining forces with the rebels and it is becoming clearer that an oyster effect is materializing, where the Assad clan will be pressed from different sides.
Several armies are readying, and build-ups are designated, the best environment for the solo attack to take place by the end of August /beginning of September.
Scenarios for the day after can be evaluated and conversations between experts and articles or studies will be further conducted.
“Conversation has a kind of charm about it, an insinuating and insidious something that elicits secrets just like love or liquor” Lucius Annaeus Seneca
- U.S. fears Syria preparing for massacre in Aleppo (news.yahoo.com)
- Syria army fires on Aleppo rebels as US fears massacre – BBC News (bbc.co.uk)
- Syria: Troops and rebels reinforce for big Aleppo battle – BBC News (bbc.co.uk)
- From Demise to Renaissance (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- In terms of Grand Strategy (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Syria crisis: Assad strikes back with jets in Aleppo and Damascus – live updates (guardian.co.uk)
- US fears for ‘massacre’ in Aleppo (bbc.co.uk)
- Syria crisis: Aleppo battle looms – live updates (guardian.co.uk)
- Syria crisis: clashes and prison mutiny in Aleppo – live updates (guardian.co.uk)
- US fears Syria ‘lining up for a massacre’ in Aleppo (reuters.com)
- Syrian legislator from Aleppo defects to Turkey (dailystar.com.lb)