Greetings and Good Day,
“The United States needs to show leadership by identifying and supporting its friends, while dealing effectively with its opponents. Otherwise, the U.S. just continues to appear weak on the world stage and, some would say, a declining power. “Jason Katz, THE HILL.
A prominent US thinker recently argued that although in difficulty, the US managed lately to “decrease the trend of crime, auto fatalities, alcohol and tobacco consumption, and emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, which cause acid rain – all while leading an Internet revolution”.
Perhaps this is true if we consider the prison population increase and the margin of consumer spending focusing more on necessary living items.
Checks and balances are the prism from where to look at the US system, hence governance and congress weakness to govern and legislate, are coupled to the citizen strength to express creativity and entrepreneurial activity as per Joseph Nye.
The persisting gap is enduring however, in the health public spending, the incapability of the federal state to invest in infrastructure and the amount of students loans impeding effective ratcheting up.
While the perception of decline of the US global power is there, recent economic data is encouraging , in fact the employment rate is near 5.7 % ( even if new jobs are more into services ), the budget deficit is narrowing, and the easing is ending.
This creates a mix climate in the market and much anxiety in view of what will replace the FED purchases to stimulate the stocks growth?
This is a wrong question to begin with, simply because the market by definition is the ultimate judge and is subject to curves and fluctuations, therefore who said the index will rise in perpetuity?
Sound would be to expect a correction in November, the DOW may range between 14500 and 15550, but this doesn’t mean it will happen also. The true policy makers in world finances today are two, the FED and the masters of the universe, holding immense cash in their offshore heaven islands looking for vested interests as voracious vultures. In truth there is a divergence of interests emerging concomitant with the Quantitative Easing ending, between these two entities the FED and the Vultures, some would argue that the FED will blink first, by standing idle for a “considerable time”.
I say the FED will not blink, because it has a better world/financial vision than the vultures. It is a fact that Chinese banks are imploding by debt even if assets are strong. True is also that Russian ruble is sacked by its own foreign policy demerit, and that German apparent prowess is incapable to move at unison with Mediterranean countries such as Italy, and France.
Finally Japanese and Indian cooperation is not sufficient yet to act as a global engine for growth.
From above we can easily deduce that the FED raise of interests rates becomes extremely urgent and strategic, to preempt the markets possible slowdown from one side, and from the other to offer a return on cash resources willing to find alternatives and safety in US bonds, treasuries and indexes.
The coming month of December rivets a major importance as the FED will lead the way again to maintain the global financial architecture initiative and project it in the right and reformed balance.
Having showcased the FED requirement to raise interest rates in December by a quarter, to increase money velocity and to reinforce the US middle class spending as a counterbalance to slowing growth overseas, readers and critics alike might ask what will follow next in hot theaters around the world?
It is clear by now that in terms of Geo-strategy the West and allies are more comfortable if compared to three years ago, when the Syrian revolution started.
The agreement for troops in Afghanistan was signed, the deployment of US military assets in European and Asian countries and bases is being implemented, and thus the geographic map looks better in terms of presence, readiness and reinforcements.
Of course the intelligence community is working continuously to process the information and assess the risks, while the CIA is holding its ramifications in illegal activities around the world to finance its own operations from outside the federal budget. But the CIA is not solo, many other agencies are following suit.
The new cold war can be summed up in a Russian Federation, becoming more Russian and less federation, and a US federal state more federal and less American.
Where the Chinese will fit is unknown for now, but my understanding is that “Aged ginger is spicier”, so I tend to position China as an opening LOTUS or PEONY flower in the second half of the 21st century.
Forecasting how above will impact the Levant theaters is easy to prescribe, years of instability are waiting until the Russian Bear becomes a fancy LLAMA.
All means will be used including the extension of the nuclear process with Iran to monitor the Islamic Republic transition by tactical recipes, the fall of Baghdad to the IS to modify the structure of the ARAB states post Versailles, the strategic equilibrium between factions in Syria to ensure Hezbollah involvement for the long term safety of Israel; and the precarious stability of Afghanistan to guarantee mineral resources and vicinity to the silk road and to its neighboring countries.
In Lebanon, at best we can expect a trade to take place between the gangsters of the second republic who will achieve the parliament extension to ransack representation, and the civil society asking for the budget affidavit to accountable, private and independent group, setting a first in state affairs.
At worst we can expect the representation ransack to take place and the trend to usurp the public life to multiply, where responsibilities are to be shared perhaps between the people and the politicians contrary to what a famous academic states in his “Lebanon Adrift: From Battleground to Playground”.
Lebanese pirates on the payrolls of foreign intelligence agencies, from the entirety of the political spectrum, having proved and showed their incapacity to set a financial policy, to implement military & constitutional/institutional reforms, leave alone failure to elect a president, set the national boundaries or increase national cohesion, are subjecting the Lebanese citizenry and collectivity to be raped on daily basis by their criminal malfeasance.
“When are we going to start addressing the real trauma? What lays behind this repetition itself, this stagnation, and what is all directly affected by these sectarian, patriarchal, hetero-normative systems of control?” broken telephone , Lebanese blogger