The Third Dynamic

September 28, 2010

Satellite image of the Middle East

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Understanding dynamics is the tool to advance effectiveness and to evolve the impasse”

As extensively expressed in previous posts, the community of international analysts has a significant and consequential common ground. This is the Modern Grand Strategy, where the unique partnership between the US/EU/Russia and the US/EU/Sino and Asian/Sino concerting relations will decisively act as multiplier in eased international relations.

Areas for wide cooperation are endless starting from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, and reformed governance.

Easing international relations is based on a strong US market and economy from here recovery/growth is synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace. In truth within the area stretched between China and Portugal, the US acting as a ballerina, will need to perfect different objectives. Recover its own economy, open to immigration,  integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a government in Iraq and put in place a diplomatic “Jirga” in Afghanistan. Change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Furthermore in the intricacy of international relations the US needs to ease tensions in the Korean Peninsula by exerting patient restraint and activating a new version of sunshine policy, and ultimately advance harmony by directing global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon. A wide and global effort exerted to implement unison policies.

The focus started with a reset to the US economy, where a very important bailout was put in place to govern a recession from deteriorating further. Although the state macro economic intervention is debatable by some critics, it was an unavoidable measure. The international requirement to re-order the US market and finances, and re-project it towards a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. In fact, international peace can not persist, if US consumer spending, manufacturing and employment levels are not satisfactory.

It was a source of comfort that US lawmakers lately extended some Tax cuts, even if the recipe for growth still requires further intervention. Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduction of a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks. Define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. To proceed ahead there is need also to invest in infrastructure, education and human resources. To end there is urgent requirement to elaborate a rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver for recovery.

Following the lead of the 3 movements identified in my last posting about the house of falling cards, I would add few others and indicate as such seven major dynamics governing world issues today.

The first is the US effort to recover, the second is the US parlor/covert actions with the IRGC, the third is the peace talks with Federal Palestine and the long build up undertaken by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fourth is the ever changing redline: enabling forces willing to alter the world order, such as Iranian influence, to test western resolve, the fifth is the Russian new geopolitical role, the sixth is the new Chinese financial global role and the seventh is the rest of the variables.

I already elaborated on the first dynamic, and there is some literature about the rest of these. However from an accurate outlook we can tell that unless all the dynamics will influence the third one rapidly, it is very likely that the third will precede the rest of the dynamics in its devastating impact.

In fact the modularity, velocity, flexibility and power accumulated so far by the third dynamic, can only impress any objective analyst versus the interconnection of the dynamics and their possible future projection scenarios.     

The speed of events and the geopolitical positioning is correlated to a Federal Palestine and a pacified Middle East, but most importantly to the security of the state of Israel, and to the integrity of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and to express a doctrine of defense.  

It is common sense to consider that the epical conflict between hope and hostilities will be reflected in the dynamics interaction.

It is a fact that the US geopolitical perspective exhausted its path by trying to install unity governments in Lebanon and Iraq, to partially contain Iran and by coupling diplomacy to counterinsurgency in the Af-pak Theater. Hence the only horizon ahead and the substitute to fatigue in US foreign affairs is a remarkable “Casus-Belli” gathering in front of our eyes. The STL indictment in November will be the trigger, even if the mass of the confrontation is already there since long time.     

Therefore the coming war in Lebanon is certitude. Operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.   

The battles to eradicate Hezbollah or to impede Israeli advance, will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major impact for the decades to come. The width of the battle (it can expand to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) and its conduct (initiative and pace) will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse. The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action, will be set by the international community, to advance all the dynamics unleashed by their sister third dynamic accelerated speed.    

My forecast is that no plan of battle will match the outcome on ground and that decision makers will endure an immense pressure not to commit any strategic mistake.

The highest stakes are for the Syrian nation as it should realize that reinserting itself with the west is its only salvation. As for the IRGC it has two options either to change its attitude now, or to succumb later to the totalitarian state demise.

In the day after, charities, NGO’s and others will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance. A common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt and the GCC nations will see the light and a new framework for Middle Eastern relations will be the anchor for a developed world trade.

Peace eventually will prevail.

“Knights with colored flags will fill the gap, bringing aid and comfort to disabled and poor”

Thank you,


The house of falling cards

September 11, 2010

Power in international relations

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“If planning is a major resource for the future, decision makes the absolute difference”

The review of the US modern Grand Strategy, successfully expressed, by partnering with Russia and concerting with China is widely accepted within the community of analysts as the excellent tool for global governance.

The US unique partnership with the EU and with Russia can only benefit cooperation between powers in an era of peace and stability. However, also the empowerment of the US/Sino and Asian/Sino relations will be useful to act as a multiplier to relaxed international relations.

Although the global citizenry knows very well that a lot of work should still be done, from widening international trade, boosting common defense and replacing visas by a modern ticket as an expression of friendly borders. And of course securing energy, ensuring water & food, ending with international solidarity versus natural calamities, non proliferation of mass destruction, weapons and UN reforms.

It is understood that a basic requirement to apply the Modern Grand Strategy is to recover the US economy. In this intent the filtered ideas seem incapable to gather bipartisan consensus, thus enabling lawmakers to act swiftly on short and long term basis.

My expectation is still that a compromise will be reached for an extension to Tax cuts, and for an effective aid to start-ups in extending funds and easing of regulations. While it is less secure that from one side government income will increase by the introduction of a 4 % Flat VAT and from another expenses will decrease by reducing to 20 weeks wrong and very long assistance to labor.

Open policy for immigration and education still needs to be implemented to reach a target of 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060. An adequate rational plan will eventually change public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services and invest in infrastructure.

Coupling Modern Grand Strategy to US economic recovery is a main engine for peace in considering geopolitical issues from China to Portugal.

Acting as a ballerina, The US will recover the US economy, integrate with Russia, concert with China, secure energy routes and stabilize Iraq through an actively help to  establish a democratic government. It will also entice a diplomatic Jirga with rational factions in Afghanistan, change the Iranian attitude versus the nuclear file, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and widen international cooperation. Ease tensions in the Korean Peninsula by exerting patient restraint,and perfect global guidance in synchrony with balancing nations Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada,  Japan, Cuba and India.

From above, we can presume that some powers will undertake willingly or unwillingly policies leading to relent if not oppose the perspective of US guidance to peace. Based on the historic record of international relations, the modern grand strategy (MGS) will expand the area of peace and common interests although stiff opposition will survive. 

The recent reprisal of peace talks in the Middle East is the window from which we can best describe the interaction between hope and intransigence. In fact from the US geopolitical perspective, the policy is to partially contain Iran while simultaneously moving forward national unity governments in Lebanon and Iraq. Evidently it will try to actively entice Syria by decoupling it from Iran and by helping it to set a new course. But it will apply also counterinsurgency coupled to diplomacy in the Afpak Theater.

To show its strength it already set  military bases surrounding Iran and displayed a defensive/offensive build up together to strong sanctions. The ultimate objective is to pressure the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender/demise.

While this approach is slowly working, it is not a perfect solution nor a winning strategy to reach out to both the Iranian mainstream and to Israeli security.

A thorough analysis will reveal three different movements,  the first will eventually lead to a deal cut between Iran and the US , the second will eventually accelerate the preemptive blitz and the third will consist in drawing an always moving red line enabling Iranian influence to test western resolve.

The complex interaction between the three movements above already generated a perfect house of falling cards. The reason for this is simple.

At first the deal/parlor between the US and Iran will never bring any final framework of understanding, rather it can probably advance small deals a’ la Contras.

Secondly the preemptive action either started by Israel or by the US cannot guarantee a credible day after scenario. In fact even if Israel will succeed to erase Hezbollah assets and manage to change the cards in hand of the Iranian Guards, or if the US will disarm the guards from the Hormuz option by a strategic/tactical bombardment that will pulverize the Iranian state, there is no certitude that military contingencies will sufficiently stabilize the Eurasian landmass.  

Thirdly the Iranian expansion of influence will always move slightly and surely the red line of western resolve, by acting silently and covertly to shake the fundamentals of the modern world order.

In front of the impasse, ongoing drills and enduring tension rising here and there, every now and then, I see the need for a game changer. This is a new Russian role in world affairs.

If it is true that the USSR was dismantled after the fall of the communist regime, it is also true that Russia is hardly expressing an understandable political role today.

The intricacy of the Russian approach seems to me difficult to understand and I believe the chess heroes are wrong. 

Assuming a US / Iranian rapprochement will lead to a grand bargain, Russian interests will not benefit.

Assuming also that Israel or the US will apply coercion and erase Iranian assets, Russian interests will not benefit.

Assuming again that Iran will test western resolve by expanding its influence, Russian interests will not benefit.

Hence, Russia is at a crossroad in international relations, as much as China is at a crossroads in financial relations. China started trading the Yuan for Malaysian currency and soon also for the ruble. Russia by contrast needs to do something in the political field to generate peace and effectiveness.

Russian policy makers need to reflect and realize that they are entitled to become masons of the house of stable cards, by cementing international relations and evolving their diplomatic status to a leading international power, rather than applying old bad policies.

Russia needs to integrate with the EU and the US fast and to cooperate with the US strongly acting as a game changer to world affairs.

The upcoming period can be either full of suspense and intrigue leading to a disaster or it can be smooth and surprising where Russian political and monetary integration with the west will advance peace in the world.

“The strategic doll will inevitably lead its destiny into full integration”

Thank you,

Suspense and Intrigue

September 3, 2010

The approximate extent of Middle East Iranian ...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The common task is to highlight the instincts for peace, rights and security”

It is a fact that the US modern Grand Strategy, consisting of peacefully partnering with Russia and concerting with China, is the correct avenue for an era of reasonable global governance.

The US – EU- Russian partnership, will contribute immensely to bring about an environment of cooperation between important powers, to increase geopolitical stability. As much as the expansion of US/Sino and Asian/Sino relations, will determine an improvement, in tutoring the overall interests involving different emerging Asian powers.

The list of necessary steps is long to ensure international trade and boost common defense. Starting from visa waivers, opening borders, securing energy, ensuring water & food and ending by international solidarity, WMD non-proliferation and UN reforms.

Meanwhile the US economy should be aided to recover, in drafts/steps taken by US lawmakers before the end of September, to avoid a missed opportunity  ahead of mid-term elections, while preparing a long term credible fiscal plan.

Extensions to Tax cuts, are pivotal for all sorts of income, while binding high incomes to support start ups. As there is need to increase government income, VAT can be introduced on certain items and a decrease should take place in the sphere of wrong spending e.g. (99 weeks for unemployment benefits). Instrumental for US growth, will be to support start ups in all forms, by extending funds and to condone regulations. Most effective will be to open for immigration and reach a target of 450 million inhabitants in 2050. Furthermore a rational plan will transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services, and invest in infrastructure.

From above one can signal that the US modern grand strategy, acting as ballerina, has a vision for world shared governance, global peace and the recovery of the US economy.

In the specifics of the geographic area stretching from China to Portugal, the US will integrate with Russia, concert with China, stabilize Iraq by establishing a national democratic government, entice a diplomatic Jirga with rational factions in Afghanistan, dissuade the Iranian guards from their nuclear pursue by containment first and coercion when required, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict, exert patient restraint in the Korean Peninsula and finally perfect global guidance in synchrony with balancing nations like Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada,  Japan and India.

Considering the steps that some powers will undertake, and the historic record of international relations, it is expected that opposition to the modern grand strategy (MGS) will become enforced and stronger. From here the evolution of the MGS will be subject to an “altalena” of movements and dynamics.

The reprisal of peace talks in the Middle East, is the example “par excellence” how hope and intransigence will be opposed in a frontal battle, while negotiators will be working on a framework, leading to a final agreement and a lasting peace. Although it is unknown how things will unfold, it is very clear that the losers from any deterioration will be the Peace Camp.

From the US prism, to partially contain Iran, national unity governments will be instated in Lebanon and Iraq. Syria will be enticed to decouple and change its course, and counterinsurgency together to diplomacy will be applied in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Furthermore military bases will surround Iran, coupled to a defensive/offensive build up and strong sanctions pressuring the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender/demise.

This approach is working, yet to reach out to both the Iranian mainstream and the Israeli security, time is running out for all players.

From one side, the IRGC is under unprecedented drain, from inside and outside Iran, and from another side, the US is exhausting the clock commodity. Extra time is needed for both powers and this is what covert action is trying to deliver. Both the IRGC and the US know that they could benefit better from a direct parlor, but the guards are prisoners of their own stands. Unfortunately they don’t want to compromise on joining the nuclear club, as their only objective is to save the regime and expand their power grip by exporting instability.  

So far the US maneuvered successfully and its efforts to manage the situation are yielding, however when things will become harder, disarming Iran from the Hormuz option, by erasing its naval capabilities, and the majority of its productive assets, by a strategic/tactical aerial prolonged bomabradment, will top the priorities.  

The Israelis from their side will do better to forget the “Masada Doctrine” threatening every now and then a solo attack. Variables are already many, and the need is for accurate strategists to shoulder responsibility. The Syrian nation must correct its political trajectory also, and play a positive role by acting as facilitator, by allying itself with the US in this delicate diplomatic phase where statesmanship is much on demand.

The upcoming period will be full of suspense and intrigue, but self control and the sapient moves of true leaders, will know precisely how and when to relent or to tighten the rope.

“Higher stakes impose exponential costs on strategic errors”

Thank you,