Greetings and Good Day,
“Understanding dynamics is the tool to advance effectiveness and to evolve the impasse”
As extensively expressed in previous posts, the community of international analysts has a significant and consequential common ground. This is the Modern Grand Strategy, where the unique partnership between the US/EU/Russia and the US/EU/Sino and Asian/Sino concerting relations will decisively act as multiplier in eased international relations.
Areas for wide cooperation are endless starting from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, and reformed governance.
Easing international relations is based on a strong US market and economy from here recovery/growth is synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace. In truth within the area stretched between China and Portugal, the US acting as a ballerina, will need to perfect different objectives. Recover its own economy, open to immigration, integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a government in Iraq and put in place a diplomatic “Jirga” in Afghanistan. Change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Furthermore in the intricacy of international relations the US needs to ease tensions in the Korean Peninsula by exerting patient restraint and activating a new version of sunshine policy, and ultimately advance harmony by directing global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon. A wide and global effort exerted to implement unison policies.
The focus started with a reset to the US economy, where a very important bailout was put in place to govern a recession from deteriorating further. Although the state macro economic intervention is debatable by some critics, it was an unavoidable measure. The international requirement to re-order the US market and finances, and re-project it towards a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. In fact, international peace can not persist, if US consumer spending, manufacturing and employment levels are not satisfactory.
It was a source of comfort that US lawmakers lately extended some Tax cuts, even if the recipe for growth still requires further intervention. Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduction of a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks. Define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. To proceed ahead there is need also to invest in infrastructure, education and human resources. To end there is urgent requirement to elaborate a rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver for recovery.
Following the lead of the 3 movements identified in my last posting about the house of falling cards, I would add few others and indicate as such seven major dynamics governing world issues today.
The first is the US effort to recover, the second is the US parlor/covert actions with the IRGC, the third is the peace talks with Federal Palestine and the long build up undertaken by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fourth is the ever changing redline: enabling forces willing to alter the world order, such as Iranian influence, to test western resolve, the fifth is the Russian new geopolitical role, the sixth is the new Chinese financial global role and the seventh is the rest of the variables.
I already elaborated on the first dynamic, and there is some literature about the rest of these. However from an accurate outlook we can tell that unless all the dynamics will influence the third one rapidly, it is very likely that the third will precede the rest of the dynamics in its devastating impact.
In fact the modularity, velocity, flexibility and power accumulated so far by the third dynamic, can only impress any objective analyst versus the interconnection of the dynamics and their possible future projection scenarios.
The speed of events and the geopolitical positioning is correlated to a Federal Palestine and a pacified Middle East, but most importantly to the security of the state of Israel, and to the integrity of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and to express a doctrine of defense.
It is common sense to consider that the epical conflict between hope and hostilities will be reflected in the dynamics interaction.
It is a fact that the US geopolitical perspective exhausted its path by trying to install unity governments in Lebanon and Iraq, to partially contain Iran and by coupling diplomacy to counterinsurgency in the Af-pak Theater. Hence the only horizon ahead and the substitute to fatigue in US foreign affairs is a remarkable “Casus-Belli” gathering in front of our eyes. The STL indictment in November will be the trigger, even if the mass of the confrontation is already there since long time.
Therefore the coming war in Lebanon is certitude. Operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.
The battles to eradicate Hezbollah or to impede Israeli advance, will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major impact for the decades to come. The width of the battle (it can expand to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) and its conduct (initiative and pace) will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse. The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action, will be set by the international community, to advance all the dynamics unleashed by their sister third dynamic accelerated speed.
My forecast is that no plan of battle will match the outcome on ground and that decision makers will endure an immense pressure not to commit any strategic mistake.
The highest stakes are for the Syrian nation as it should realize that reinserting itself with the west is its only salvation. As for the IRGC it has two options either to change its attitude now, or to succumb later to the totalitarian state demise.
In the day after, charities, NGO’s and others will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance. A common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt and the GCC nations will see the light and a new framework for Middle Eastern relations will be the anchor for a developed world trade.
Peace eventually will prevail.
“Knights with colored flags will fill the gap, bringing aid and comfort to disabled and poor”
- U.S. Woos Syria in Mideast Peace Push (online.wsj.com)
- From the Archives: Playing Out the Coda to the Long War: (brothersjuddblog.com)
- What To Do About Hizbullah? (tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com)