A Liberal Manifesto

July 27, 2011

The Entrance Hall of the White House in 1882, ...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Academics and analysts will have a hard job ahead, to determine and advise a sound policy versus the  course of upcoming global events.”

Whenever the stall in debt talks will persist in the US between the White House and the Congress, a downgrade will be inevitable by rating agencies.

The effects and combined projections of the repercussions on the global economy will be a new chapter of study, for junior and senior clerics of the curves.

The G-2 will be the major loser from this possibility and world markets will witness some passive turbulence, until a strong free economy will rise and lead the locomotive of the international markets.

It is clear that if the G-2 will lose with major economies, the benefiters will be the financial masters of the universe.

It is unfortunate that in an epoch of extreme polarization, the masters of the universe as opposed to the republic of god will unavoidably cause havoc to the interests of the average citizen and the common civil society.

We the people will be looking into ways to survive in a forest of interests and conflicts, where food resources and energy routes are all threatened by an epical wrestling between two ideologies: reigning capital, in the hands of few multinational money multipliers from one side and some challenging religious oligarchies exerted by few heretics of god from another.

In the middle are famines, conflicts, universal rights, startups, inventions, legal institutions, sea and land boundaries, conservative energy and alternative energy, etc….  

Raw power at this stage is being projected in the form of coercion and very few powers will compromise on areas of influence.

A major tragedy is announced for the human race and for the history of the common acceptance and the great good.

Geopolitics is a derivative of this struggle as much as other forms of complex products (financial or social) to control the destiny of production and of demography.

The Middle East for one reason and another, rivets the pivotal importance of being the hub of the hubs, the lungs of the universe, since the first Hammourabi banking and monetary traceability practices.

The last call for Lebanon to start its national dialogue can rotate around the topic of the effects of world wars on the Lebanese republic. A deep retrospection will reveal that only a united pursue of common objectives for the national interest will save the country and consign to future generations a sane and reformed society.

Whenever Lebanon is a message nation, its task is to defeat the logic of blocs and express its visibility for life in the ocean of death.

Liberal thinkers, reformers, bloggers should express an alternative manifesto that will stand against the upcoming, and difficult to stop wars of interests.  

A clash of titans is at the horizon and we the people must act to avoid this large scale conflict from erupting and causing major losses.

In front of the defeat of nations to take the lead of the destiny of citizens and the paradigms regulating the affairs of the states, only a gathering of open minds can avoid and stop a secure epical conflict.

This might be wishful thinking, yet it is a concrete option to define and to follow up until a different perspective and better scenario will be applied.

Two events will be interesting to monitor, the revolt in Syria , and Lebanese Hezbollah enticed evolution into a party that will express independent policy.

Judgment based on the last events indicate that the uprising in Syria is very vivid and much promising to maintain the initiative and express a program and a reliable leadership, while huge gray areas persist around the thoughts and attitude of Hezbollah.     

In presence of a regional stalemate that will drain resources of many players, a winner will emerge eventually and this is the state of Israel, hence it is a strategic interest of the IRGC to exert pressure on Hezbollah to accommodate and compromise in the Lebanese theater, also with the STL, as intransigence will lead to a conflagration, that will show the flanks of Hezb.     

“ Observers and power brokers differ, the first will strictly be objective, while the latter must adjust to survive”

Thank you,


The much needed action

July 22, 2011

Hassan Nasrallah on TV

Image by Kodak Agfa via Flickr

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“One can activate a pirouette strategy or activate a rational plan of governance”

In my last postings I identified topics related to a possible Hezbollah’s future, leading a national dialogue portending a mature role of cohesion from one side; and the evolving regional relation between two foes, Israel and Hezbollah from another .

I will examine hereunder the dynamics governing the perceptions and the policies of both Hezb and Israel, looking to find in both of their attitudes and fears, ways how to generate a Modus Vivendi better than the actual.

It is a fact that the present is laying on a debated conflict where both admitted faults and errors in 2006, and both claimed half successes.

 The question is can Hezb and Israel end their belligerence and how?

In an assessment of the pure Lebanese national interest, viewed from strategic prisms, it is inevitable to realize that the immediate benefit is to create a national formula of renewed social pact negotiated between the parts to reach true reforms and enhanced acceptance, tolerance and liberal values.

From another side it is consequential and rational to couple internal affairs projected towards a diffusion of tension, to external successes in securing economic prosperity, within an international framework of accords for peace and exploitation of natural resources.

Whenever all parts get go with this view, it is easy to move forward.

Both the government and the opposition can orient their actions and mood toward a veritable achievement of common sense.

It is irrelevant who will preside or call for dialogue and what will be the agenda of talks, what matters most is the results of the sessions, and here I see a unique opportunity to proceed.

Hezbollah is under pressure from the STL and it will be happy to broker a national pact with the opposition to protect its image and extricate itself in a future deal with the STL.

A party capable to negotiate national reforms will undoubtedly compromise with international justice.

Secondly, having all to gain from staying in power, it is a great opportunity also for Hezb to secure an upgrading to non belligerence, along the border with Israel, to ensure its own survival.

In fact in the logic of Hezb, a conflict with Israel any time now is fully against its interests and the status quo reached so far.

Therefore Hezb will be obliged to start a governing path and observers can either look idle or help events to unfold for the common good.

Israel is benefiting from unprecedented circumstances, the Syrian theater has a revival of liberal spirit, as much as the Egyptian theater, and the Iraqi state is becoming more and more reliant on itself with the Kurdish autonomy becoming much respected.

Hence it is time for Israel to finalize deals favoring the ascent of the Palestinian state and the appeasement/peace with Hezbollah/Government of Lebanon.           

While the contours of a deal along the Palestinian track are well known , those in the Lebanese track are not.

The alternative of a path of negotiations and dialogue for all actors is not affordable, as this will be simply war and destruction.

Looking deeply into different factors and interests, it is my conviction, that there is convergence between Turkey, Russia, Gulf potentates, EU, China and the US to facilitate the above without diminishing the importance and relevance of the STL.

 Who can move first and how and on which basis?

How to respond to the openings and how to smoothly facilitate them to avoid the conflict?

Assuming that the Syrian clan will be under heavy pressure, and much involved by its own problems, I tend to consider that both Hezbollah and its Iranian masters the IRGC (entrapped in a three directions Iran adding fraction to an already debilitated leadership), will look into alternatives, without losing accumulated strategic advantages, rather acting to consolidate them perhaps the best cure for the Stuxnet disease. 

Therefore the benefiters of a deal are without doubt the bi-trident Israel/Hezbollah-lebanon/IRGC  and  Israel/Hamas/PLO.   

I vividely advise Israel to send a letter to the turkish parliament and people apologizing for the lossess occured during the Marmara tragic events.   

It is easy to understand that only fools will push for war, where everyone will lose, especially Hezbollah, while a deal will guarantee to Hezb a modern regional role.

We need to study the psychological profile of Nasrallah and assess if he can gather around him a capable intellectual elite that will have the initiative upper hand.

At the moment the future seems meager, but if some rational independents make an opening to Nasrallah and lead his way into the upcoming period, and he responds positively, I can see a light, otherwise destruction is assured sooner or later.

Who are true Lebanese intellectuals with a coherent traceability that will undertake such endeavor?

I know that the Lebanese opposition will hold an enlarged conference to set its strategy and I call on them to nominate 3 people to lead the dialogue and walk into it without any fears or preconditions.

Botros Harb, Nader Hariri and a female social networker and blogger can be an excellent choice, where this delegation will tour on all leaders and become the fulcrum for talks and negotiations, where everything, anything will be subjected to diplomacy, the only cure against a certain war.

Only then , after a lebanese action, can the international friends and allies of Lebanon step in to join diplomatic efforts where  Turkish/Qatari/French/German envoys can act as amplifiers for peace.    

“Only looking into the future and keeping the initiative at hand we can hope for a better Lebanon”

Thank you     

Trigger and Timing for the next WAR

July 13, 2011

Iran has 3 Russian-built Kilo class submarines...

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The relevance of negotiations is highlighted in presence of bargaining chips; alternatively conflict is envisaged having a strong economic trigger”

As we all know several rounds of negotiations between the five plus one and the Islamic Republic of Iran failed to produce so far an agreement related to the nuclear file, and the impasse is still negatively influencing the relations between the West and the fractious nation led by the ailing supreme leader.

Any forecast to the evolution of this issue will be misplaced, even if we commonly accept that the essence of the Iranian state is to form a clan in power and to resist democratic reforms.

From here the show will evolve now between three directions the green movement considered to be a loser in the short run, the Larijani Clan under the aegis of the religious establishment positioned to benefit enormously from the actual juncture and the Ahmadinejad clan sponsoring the municipal devolution willing to evolve the country toward a South American popular nationalism a mix of Peron, De Silva, Chavez .

Being the revolution in Iran closed in three directions, its evolution and intellectual advance is deemed, and therefore a true threat of it exporting principles is not in the casket.

Having said this we look with comfort to two evolving theaters, the Yemeni and Libyan ones, where a negotiated transition will soon take form and shape in a way or another.

The one term transition of three years, can be applied to both theaters and modules, where an interim president carefully selected will implement reforms and supervise candid elections through political parties based on program platforms. As for sons of ex presidents these will not hold any security posts, and may well freely run in upcoming elections if dedicated only to politics.

Where small complications might arise is in the Tunisian and Egyptian nations, as the popular protest can well be circumvented and appeased or relegated to secondary achievements.

These most probably will not be up to the expectations of the crowd that inundated the streets and squares.

It is understood that the complexity of the political systems and the widespread corruption practices are strong impediments from an organically development of the long awaited home grown reforms.

Coming to huge complications we need to stop for long in Lebanon and Syria.

It is visible that the Syrian protest weakened significantly the dictatorial regime and that the strategic link between the IRGC , the Assad Clan and Hezbollah guided by Nasrallah is under strain.

However there are two aspects to be evaluated and these are to refer Assad to the ICC to acquire advantage for the upcoming negotiation to supersede the regime, and the second to offer incentives to Nasrallah in order to facilitate a deal between the STL and Hezbollah within the framework of a new Lebanese national pact.

In all cases a question immediately arises and this is, how will the Iranian surrogates deliver a deal while their master did not pursue a nuclear easing?

In presence of developing energy interests in the Mediterranean offshore and intransigence of the Assad Clan in tandem with Hezbollah leadership sponsored by the IRGC, I am keen to consider that the negotiations will fail and the only possible outcome will be a regional conflict that will involve Israel / Lebanon and Syria.

Turkey will act as a counterbalance to Iran in order to impede any meddling or extension of the conflict, and this will be the projection of zero problems loudly announced by the establishment.

In fact in an accurate study of profit and loss, the Turkish neutrality will be grandiose in supporting refugees, and clinging the IRGC into the cage of regional inaction.

Turkish trade with Iran will be the stability factor in the upcoming struggle and it will be the “piatto forte” to retain and contain Iranian interference.

By contrast whenever the IRGC will decide to push and force its sphere of influence then a buffer zone in Syria imposed by Turkey will be the counter riposte.

Iran will be much troubled to lose regional allies but this is the cost to be paid for imperial enlargement not coupled to military muscles. Mastering nuclear devices can be a meager consolation for the IRGC as they will be holding a costly investment useless in terms of power projection.

So here we come to the most pressing questions when and for which trigger will the war erupt?

What will be the date and cause to revive the round to follow the infiltration of July 12 in 2006?

In my perception the answer simply stands with the Syrian protest and with the STL indictments and verdicts in absentia.

The acceleration/synchronization and tempo of both will be the instrument that will determine the timing and I tend to position this tentatively between 2 and 9 October.

As for the trigger this will be apparently the set up of a discovery of a dormant cell placing explosives in Galilee, while the veritable reason is the drilling off shore.

The extension of the operations in Lebanon is well known and was fully detailed in different reports, and this will be added to the destruction of strategic Syrian army assets, which will ensure safe drilling and safe energy transport as a positive outcome required by the financial masters of the universe.

The only possibility to avoid this catastrophic scenario is for Hezbollah to acquire a Lebanese dimension and adopt a Lebanese formula of dialogue.

On a separate note, as usual the world will move forward and European monetary crisis will be resolved as much as the US debt deal, and the Fed renewed stimulus based on an extension until the end of the year of half the amount expired in June.

“Unfortunately Bookmakers in London will accept 60 to 1 for dialogue and 1 to 1 for war “

Thank you,

Hezbollah from Zenith to ?

July 6, 2011

First hand drawn flag of Lebanon.

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ Being everyone subjected to criticism, the most important duty of a veteran is to facilitate his replacement “

In an objective effort to assess the broader interests of democracy in the Middle East, perhaps the best start is to ponder the positive effects on global governance rather than an effective analysis of the bottom up evolution.

Far from being rhetoric or idealistic, it is a reality to consider the democratic advancement an excellent tool for peace in the Eurasian Theater, being this in Arab Countries, in Russia, in Thailand or in China.

Tactics, mechanics and achievements might differ as per each local circumstance/surrounding, yet the mainstream is that liberties coupled to peaceful rotation of power will enable a flourishing society and the empowerment of civil rights.

If it is true that there is a geopolitical formula that links maneuvering drones to transparent ballots, it is also true that energy/water/food corridors and demographic aspects will play a pivotal role in setting the modern governance in the coming decades.

Looking into an innovative prism of strategic concept we can easily affirm that in general all popular movements are a step forward and in particular the “Arab Spring” is a transition from a stalled and static civil society into a vibrant and dynamic interaction between many players involved in setting the interests of a collectivity.

How we can intersect the interests of different collectivities and avoid clashes and conflicts, remains a hurdle, while vested interests, monetary masters of the universe, arrogant powers and revanchist souls will render very difficult the job of decision makers to converge on righteous policies.

Observers are keen to consider the Egyptian, Tunisian, Yemeni , Libyan and Syrian theaters all subject to major changes that will transform the nature and essence of the state from authoritarian/despotic to relaxed and cooperative with the civil society.

This will unavoidably be coupled to geopolitical deployments, where US troops presence in the AFPAk/ and Iraqi theaters will be diminished sensibly, in tandem to new deployments in Cyprus, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

Political tools will be exploited until the objectives assigned will be reached and implemented.

The final goal will be to practice an illuminated governance to tutor the interests of the global citizenry, although lobbies, associations, old states, new conglomerates and else will exert pressure to get benefits and privileges.

In Syria it will be extremely difficult for the gang in power to meet the opposition demands, therefore I forecast a slow demise of the dictatorship along a period of 3 to 6 months time from today.

In Lebanon, as we all know there is a new cabinet in place and it will be voted this week to have the confidence, while simultaneously the STL will do its work.

Observers are concerned that an outbreak of violence might flare and a major violent strife will oppose sectarian communities.

My forecast is that nothing will happen rather it is in the best interest of democracy to proceed in Lebanon with the dual game of a cabinet and an opposition, leading eventually to a peaceful rotation.

Even if the diverging actual majority will generate national tickets/lists that will run the general elections of 2013, this is not a big deal.

Lebanon will need to legally submit to the STL in a way or another, and all efforts of the actual government to derail it, will be voided and lost.

It remains unclear how the diverging interests of the majority composing the cabinet in Lebanon will express focused governance and a successful economic policy while in contrast with the international institutions.

I don’t envy a business man leading an octopus, armed with missiles willing to maintain a balance of terror with Israel and abiding by an Iranian dictate for all strategic matters of national concern.

It is only a matter of time that this octopus will dissipate and part of it regains sense making.

 The Lebanese opposition should be very objective and express its legal standing behind the STL at all costs and by supporting the international institutions.

Submitting Lebanon to justice by the international community will reveal to be for the interests of Lebanon, as this is the best alternative to war with Israel or to an internal strife.

 The Syrian regime stubbornness will impede any peaceful transition and in the coming weeks we will unavoidably see a Turkish major intervention setting a buffer zone and hosting the Syrian Council for Modernity.

This gathering where all opposition forces will reunite under the same umbrella, multiethnic, multi confessional and plural will be the incubator for the political initiative of a new Syria.

 The Lebanese opposition guidance will be expressed by its adherence to the STL and staunch defense of its dynamics.

Hezbollah has a choice similar to Ghaddafi and Assad, it can negotiate with the STL, include its arms in the LAF , participate in the making of a new Lebanese social pact, lead the political negotiation with Israel for the best interests of the Lebanese collectivity and finally influence the Iranian environment for a modern development within the global governance.

Refusal to exert this option, will lead Hezbollah to a major confrontation with the world powers,and even if its Iranian mentor will interfere, the fate is signed and this is Hezbollah change from its zenith .

“ Hope never fades in illuminated nations and in dynamic regimes and open societies”

Thank You