The cards of the enemy

August 26, 2010

Map of Israel, the Palestinian territories (We...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ In sharing, there is enticement to accept risks that others are willing to take ”

While the US –Russian and EU- Russian partnerships are moving in a bright allay, working on monetary and energy options that will further cement the existing relations, nothing prohibits Russia to act alone to increase geopolitical stability.

If it is true that visa waiver, borders opening, Ruble merger in the Euro, and further nuclear US/Russian control, are significant measures ahead, it is also true that boosting defense cooperation and increasing trade volumes are pivotal to reach unprecedented phases of international peace.

It is widely known that the US modern Grand Strategy already evolved to partner greatly with Russia and to extensively concert with China. This approach is very effective to reach an era of consulting and peaceful global governance.

Open areas for cooperation are still there like energy, water, food, natural calamities, WMD proliferation and UN reforms, but the basic work is set for US-EU-Russian integration and concerted acceptance with China to move forward and proceed.

How the US economy will recover remains the main question, and unless important steps are taken by lawmakers, this international requirement will not be addressed.

How can peace activists spur US consumer spending, manufacturing and new households is easy to realize if we look into many ideas being floated recently.

There is need to elaborate a major fiscal plan where tax cuts for middle/low income will be renewed/expanded for 3 years, but for high incomes only for one year while imposing on these, a condition to commit for at least two start ups in the coming 12 months. There is also need to introduce an incremental VAT on a limited basket of commercial items, furthermore to open the US for new immigration with a target to reach 450 million inhabitants in 2050.

 To complete the action a rational plan to transform public waste into wealth should be put in place and also a clever framework to reduce debt gradually with no harm to the efforts for recovery.

Rumors are spreading if the Fed will recur to another quantitative easing or if there will be need to another stimulus, and I say that the approval of a special unlimited package at this stage to fund startups initiated from August 2010 to August 2011 and reduce to zero their regulations will have a better impact on all sectors. These actions will sedate the volatility and make the fourth quarter a turning point.

Coupling Modern Grand Strategy to economic recovery is a main understanding for activists of peace while focusing on the area stretching from China to Portugal. The US modern Grand strategy acting as a ballerina, will recover the US economy, integrate with Russia, concert with China, secure energy routes, stabilize Iraq and facilitate the establishment of a democratic government after the general elections, entice a diplomatic solution with rational factions in Afghanistan for the benefit of the civil society, dissuade the Iranian guards from their nuclear pursue, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and widen international cooperation.

However in doing so, we need also to consider the steps taken by other powers, simply because the geopolitical mosaic is widely interconnected. Fear should not be a factor impeding China from rising peacefully in its region, or Russia to perfect a consortium with Iran. A growing responsibility of both is a gain for world citizenry in the same way as the peace role of the US is an added value in Eurasia.

Looking into the upcoming Gala in Washington on September 1st, observers are hoping for a deal in the making between Palestinians and Israelis. Excellent would be to agree by mid September on a Federal Palestine. The new demilitarized state can be declared temporarily in the West Bank (98 % of 1967) as a first state, in January 2011 with its temporary capital Ram Allah.

Outstanding issues of additional states, final borders, viability, Jerusalem and refugees will be finalized by 2013. Opposition to a likely agreement will be strong and will rise from a pervasive array of sort; we can expect veiled threats of instability to continue striking in Iraq and Afghanistan for now, yet there is no escape for both contenders the NPA and Israel than to find a common ground.  Failure is a nightmare. 

PR exercises practiced from one side by Hezbollah in frequent TV shows trying to subject the Lebanese STL to threats or quid pro quo’s and from pro- Israel writers resorting to Atlantic interviews to legitimize a non recommended Israeli attack on Iranian plants will ultimately fail in their objectives.

As we know the last tripartite summit in Lebanon, the French designation of a peace envoy, and the clashes this week in Burj Abi Haidar do confirm my assessment that the perimeter of the theater of regional confrontation is limited to Lebanon to enable a diplomatic/political breakthrough in world affairs.

My view suggested to put in place surrounding bases to Iran, a defensive/offensive build up coupled to strong sanctions leading the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender. It seems that the IRGC is willing to start negotiations, but to reach out to the Iranian mainstream we need to strengthen the stick and cut Hezbollah tentacles in Lebanon. This requirement will reveal very precious in the negotiations, as the IRGC will have lost a negative card Hezb but gained a positive one the Consortium with Russia.

Basically we are changing the cards in hand of the counterpart and this will enable the US to come clean at the end of September/October having two agreements in place one for Palestine and one with Iran.

From above, strategic terms impose that Hizb will be deprived from its military assets, to reach global peace and power equilibrium. Therefore the international consensus for the Casus Belli (Federal Palestine, security of the state of Israel, Iranian negotiations and Peace in the Middle East) is well in place and advancing. An oyster policy will oblige Hizb to disarm or else to be reduced to a relic by an overwhelming, disproportionate, fast and irreversible action that will promote peace successfully.

Being in the midst of the campaign to disarm Hizb, I can safely say that it is inevitable for ISraeli armors to roll by September/October into Lebanon. Hizb has two choices, to lose power and reposition itself, or to fight on multiple fronts and lose the totality of its military assets. I was expecting the STL to announce its indictment on September the second to exert the most pressure, yet the interview of Bellemare on Now Lebanon suggests a different scenario. Therefore I reconsider and tend to put the indictment to be simultaneous to the upcoming conflagration.

Hizb loss in Lebanon will favor a rapprochement between all players on the China/Portugal mainland/surface. “Pax Riduttiva” will prevail.

The Syrian army, the LAF and Hamas would best stay idle or they will bear dire , very dire consequences.

Hizb loss and the Russian offer will shuffle the cards in hand of the IRGC and consign to US negotiators the key to a pragmatic deal. The only alternative to the pragmatic deal will be a US strategic/tactical bombardment by the end of November. Failure of the US to act swiflty on the Iranian nuclear file, will inevitably introduce a “Masada Doctrine”, where Israel will act alone, in a different perspective, where cards are not required .   

The Syrian nation following the new direction will benefit largely as much as a new Lebanon will benefit from the monopoly of coercion exerted only by a modern LAF, responding to an enlightened doctrine of defense. Reforms of both states will remain a major issue to tackle and the installment of a democratic stability will be the main objective of the elites.

The IRGC needs to put the ball in the nearest hole, thus, limit damage and surrender.

“A great advantage is to know the cards of the enemy, a luxury is to give the enemy the cards in hand”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour


The Green Light

August 9, 2010

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“What light reveals, darkness can not obscure”

It is a source of comfort and satisfaction that US –Russian and EU- Russian partnerships are set in the right direction of cooperation, enhanced collaboration and brotherhood.

Although some significant steps still separate us from an official and irreversible course. The immigration/borders opening, the currency merger, the additional nuclear reduction/control, the security/defense cooperation and the trade/education exchange are few important measures to be approved between the EU/Russia/US. 

I define the US modern Grand Strategy to partner thoroughly with Russia and to extensively concert with China, as the only opening for an era of peaceful international relations and sound global governance.

If it is true that several domains still need to be addressed like energy, water, food, natural calamities, WMD proliferation or UN reforms; it is also true, that the necessary framework, set in the US-EU-Russian integration from one side, and the concerted cooperation with China from another, is already in place.

The need now is to reset the US economy and project it to a healthy & ironed growth.  This is an international requirement and every responsible citizen should cooperate to achieve this result. In fact, international peace can not persist, if US consumer spending, manufacturing and employment levels are not satisfactory. Yet, before the world can act, it is the duty of US lawmakers to do their job. The recipe for ironed growth is easy, enhancement or renewal of tax cuts, introduction of an incremental VAT on a limited basket of items, enabling further immigration directed to manufacturing and transformation of public waste into wealth. There is very urgent need also to elaborate a rational plan to reduce debt gradually without affecting the maneuver for recovery. In addition to this and above all, the need to approve a special package (tons of funds- zero regulations) for connected startups expected during August 2010-August 2011. The package will be based on a generous stimulus and easy access to funds from one side and on a retroactive halt on all regulations from another.

In short, there is urgent economic need for the US houses to renew or approve significant Tax cuts, to introduce a limited Vat Basket and to put together a strong retroactive Startups package coupled to a bracket for debt reduction. These measures will absorb the volatility and transform it into a steady recovery before the end of the second semester.

After setting the guidelines for global peace and the therapy to recover the US economy, the main interest for responsible citizens will be to focus on the area stretching from China to Portugal. In truth it is well known that the US modern Grand strategy acting as a ballerina, will recover the US economy, integrate with Russia, concert with China, secure energy routes, end the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, dissuade the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation.

It is stunning how above issues are interconnected and interrelated. Many observers tend to assign priorities, but even though a topic precedes another, sometimes in the march to implementation, in the bigger picture of harmony, all topics should be perfected at unison.

To understand the speed of events and the geopolitical positioning, one should think what is retarding a phased vision for Federal Palestine to be declared? A Federal demilitarized state temporarily in the West Bank (98 % of 1967) in 2011 with its capital Ram Allah. While well known outstanding issues will be discussed and negotiated on a later stage by 2013.

And why is it cautious to consider: that the Iranian guards will not accept the western terms, that direct negotiations will not succeed between the NPA and Israel, and that the indictment of the Lebanese STL will be subjected to threats, quid pro quo’s, conspiracy theories, etc…?

From above I can say that the major trigger for the upcoming clean-up in Lebanon is well installed. In other words, by setting the metrics for a diplomatic/political breakthrough in world affairs, confrontation in Lebanon is fast approaching.

In fact, in the interconnection of issues, the simplest theater for confrontation is the one where damage can be controlled and limited. This coincides to be Lebanon unfortunately and fortunately. Although my hope was that an American wish list coupled to an agreement with the IRGC could reinforce the security and modernity of the Middle East, avoiding serious clashes. But it is realistic to accept that in the ongoing game, the IRGC will not bow without a significant military defeat.

From the prism of profit and loss, our recommendation was to put in place surrounding bases, a defensive/offensive build up coupled to strong sanctions leading the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender. And this happens to be also the best option to reach out to the Iranian mainstream. But our calculus needs a supplementary stick and this will be the chirurgic cut of the octopus major tentacle which is in Lebanon.

After the tripartite summit in Lebanon and the nominee of a French envoy for Syrian/Israeli talks, I can safely affirm that the looming War will be in Lebanon only, and this is a strategic military achievement. The secretary general of Hizb can lecture whatever claim today or tomorrow. Most important is the perimeter of the theater for any military confrontation, and here, the first success against the Iranian Guards touring the front, was scored in the opening moves.

I thank the Saudi/Qatari/Syrian/Brazilian governments for their efforts to define the theater of operations.

At the very near horizon lays the difficult part, which is to eradicate Hizb boots on Lebanese ground, in respect of the bigger picture of global peace. Timing is paramount as much as international consensus for the Casus Belli (The security of the state of Israel, and Peace in the Middle East). But most important will be the conduct of the operations itself. Overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting, irreversible is the least expected for peace to fly.    

In the midst of a mid August night, infiltrators will enter Lebanon and a kinetic scheme will be put in place, targeting disconnected sites or persons, to project confusion and spread disorder. A chain of explosions will go on air as early as end August, and efforts will focus to understand the kinesis. Fire extinguishers will work hard, but meanwhile elsewhere, strong of this diversion, other special forces will carry missions of preparation for a major ground invasion and assault. It is unavoidable that by Mid September armors will roll in concomitance with incessant aerial sorties. 

The major battles will be in Beirut and in many villages in South Lebanon and the Bekaa; it is either eradication of Hizb positions or impediment of Israeli advance. The winner will impose on the China/Portugal mainland/surface a major impact for the decades to come. The options are international peace (Pax Riduttiva) or a disturbing havoc. For once the rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action will be set by the international community to the IDF acting on behalf of responsible citizens.

The LAF and Hamas are warned to act as bystanders inside the garrisons without interference.   

The widest clean up will be put in place, to consign the best cards to US negotiators with the IRGC. The IRGC will be drawn to negotiate its own surrender to avoid the worst. Otherwise it will succumb in the upcoming strategic/tactical battle with the US in November.

The Syrian nation and state will benefit as it will ensure an honest western brokerage for Golan, and it will expand its democratic stability and economic growth. A common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Turkey/Israel and Syria will see the light, and a new framework for bilateral relations with Lebanon will be the anchor for the new trade zone. A new Syria is in the best interest of a new Lebanon.

Considering the variables, the Turkish Foreign Policy, would better start to put order at home, by consolidating the deal reached between the government and the military establishment. Whenever the leading party in Turkey will miss the opportunity, to enhance and maintain the secular tradition, it will put itself against major worldwide interests and will not embark on the train of joint currency and economic zones. This will pave the way for an era of Turkish adjustments and disequilibrium. 

The IRGC needs to put the ball in the nearest hole, thus, limit damage and surrender.

Lebanon will suffer temporarily and shortly to help the world become a flourishing garden.

“ The peace cause, necessitates often a green light for war”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour