From Dancer to Ballerina

April 26, 2010

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

 “ The imperative of responsible world citizenry is to enact safety and security of the global environment”

In an effort to read in the cup of the future on long term basis, one can easily position world affairs to be leveled in several spheres be them economic, technological, social, military or industrial…

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the introduction of the Euro, while Russia is greatly positioning itself as an independent partner to the West, sharing the burden of extending security and democratic stability to large areas of the Eurasian mainland, Germany is surely changing its dress from Mittle- European to European and International.

In view of these fundamental European changes, what rivets strategic importance for global peaceful citizens is to achieve the concerting dimension in the relationship between China from one side and the West, its allies & Russia from another side.

Only by a healthy partnership with Russia and by concerting the Chinese prosperity we can positively impact global geopolitics for many years to come. International relations will need to tackle important issues like climate, energy shortage, food, natural calamities, proliferation of weapons, crisis management, UN reforms, nation building of weak states and control of rogue states, etc…

In a transforming world where nations will play at unison in a global opera, Indian, Brazilian, Turkish and Japanese economies and systems are integral part of modern existing checks and balances. The World Bank shift in voting is an excellent move forward.

It is a fact that the US, Russia and China have a lot of common ground to evolve and nurture several sectors, disarmament, education, medical research, infrastructure, space, tourism, art, architecture, engineering, economy, soil exploitation and finance.

It is a fact also that the West and its partner Russia need to develop their cultural heritage and ensure a safe environment for their populations. I envisage after bailing out Greece with special bonds issued by the IMF and the ECB sponsored and subscribed by an evaluated Yuan, that Russia will negotiate its entry in the Euro Zone to stabilize further the international reserve currency system. The future of the US dollar as reserve currency is much the same of the US super power, transiting from a solo dancer to a concerting ballerina with a couple of partners.

From above and after depicting briefly the upcoming international frame for the coming decades, we need to focus on our days and resolve the spinning situations we are facing in our present world. Having established and summed up the US Grand Strategy to be changing from dancer to ballerina, we need to trace the steps that will lead this transformation to be put gradually in place.

The actual US administration from its own prism, started with the priority of reform in health already approved and finance today reaching the senate aula. Successively it will tackle incentives for connected startups, facilitate the creation of green collars jobs, phase out debt reduction, introduce an incremental VAT taxation, allow further immigration and transform public waste into wealth.

The FED while acquiring expanded powers, will report to an independent body of wise personalities on regular basis and these reports will be published one year after they happen. On the middle run it is expected that it will start raising interests by a quarter point by the end of October of 2010.

Even though the agenda seems looking elsewhere, foreign affairs in general and the area stretching from China to Portugal in particular are always present in the concerns of the White House.

Putting first things first, we need to get the recount results in Baghdad and form the new government by May 10, while paying much attention to the increasing violence of recent days.

After this step the fourth round of sanctions against the IRGC at the UNSC can be approved by May 25. This is to be followed by an accurate assessment of the Iraqi overall situation by June 20 where a scenario of delaying the withdrawal of some 10000 US troops should be readied.

In the mean time by June 30 the campaign in Kandahar should set the stage to entice talks with Taliban factions willing to form a Loya Jirga salvation cabinet, in conformity with the recommendations of NATO’s meeting in Estonia where security issues will be gradually transferred in a possible 4 years frame to the locals in Afghanistan after setting a stable modus operandi.

A successful outcome in peaceful governance in Iraq, in sanctions at the UN and in talks in Afghanistan will portray the US to go decisively on the pivotal round of negotiations with the IRGC to define the modalities of the exchange of Uranium. Where and how the swap will happen and coupled to which wish list is the big question.

The IAEA board will have prepared the terrain of the swap in present talks. The Chinese will have evaluated the Yuan and adhered voluntarily to the Greek bailout, and the US economy will have definitely scored better fundamentals comparing the y/y first semester.

July is the key month in these swap negotiations and whenever talks will not have a positive turning, then the octopus will have a further pressure on its tentacles and the Lebanese ramification will be cut in Mid August. The objective will be to destroy Hizbullah military assets and to put a new Lebanon on track, pronging grand reforms of the state. This green light will be given after convincing Bashar to position international control at the porous borders with Syria to impede any supply of ammunitions during the conflict days from one side and to limit the conflict and have tangible evidence of Bashar’s intentions from another side. Failure of Bashar to abide will mean to propagate the fire inside Syria itself. French envoys soon to arrive in Damascus will tell.

A ground invasion will secure the land until further notice and let Syria also be warned by the US ambassador arriving in June to stay idle or it will be subject to severe damage and unaccountable losses. The IRGC will look at the clean up in Lebanon as a lost card in a poker game, and it will ready itself for the final round of negotiations with the international community in October. Drills in Bandar Abbas will become routine and the clock will start to tick.

Success of Israel to destroy Hizb assets in Lebanon and to create a new Lebanon coupled to the Syrian idle stand cooperating with the west and its partner Russia will set the stage for further isolating the IRGC .

Medvedev during his upcoming visit to Syria will explain to Bashar the stakes of Syrian wrong involvement in other words destruction. Bashar to rape benefits and regain Golan should moderate his stance, facilitate border monitoring with Lebanon and accept direct talks with Israeli counterparts without preconditions. A Summit in Paris for direct talks will be arranged in September. Bashar’s mortal enemy will be miscalculation of happenings and underestimation of Jewish determination.

 Jewish culture is liberal by definition and it looks for the unity of mankind.

The US will deploy a massive defensive/offensive build up in the Gulf starting July and simultaneously apply targeted and smart sanctions until an accord is reached with the IRGC. A veiled Iranian technique in negotiations can activate a flare up in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But even though in presence of high pressure applied by both sides, the wish is for an agreement to be reached, otherwise whenever there will be no agreement and the IRGC will insist to have the last say, the ultimate alternative will be to take ultimate decisions.

Immediately after mid term elections in November, whenever the Iranians will not lessen their intransigence, and the silent struggle will not put in place an accord, the only possible option left meant as a last resort to curb the ignorance of the IRGC will be to authorize surprise aerial/special strategic and tactical attacks on IRGC assets that will last between 8 and 14 days.

Resisting factors to the above are the failure of Israel to clean up Lebanon, the Syrian involvement widening the front of war in the Levant, or the IRGC decision to open the front with Israel already in August.

However in evaluating the profit and losses equation and examining the historic record and the psychological profiles, there are excellent chances that a successful clean up in Lebanon and following talks with Syria for a final arrangement in Golan, will convince the IRGC to accept a deal with the US.

In view of this perspective I recommend the NPA to immediately accept the temporary borders of the state of Palestine and to work for any date to announce it in 2011.

In persistence of obtusely keeping intransigent positions, the IRGC will force the US to boldly act and the “day after” will be a safer world, open for cooperation and concert, where the US in synchrony with others will keep trade routes open and help transform planet Earth into a better place for all citizens benefiting from universal rights and freedoms.

“You need to master universal power to share it with others in concert”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour


Letter from Israel

April 18, 2010

Dear Elie,

Greetings and Good Day,

In occasion of the 62nd anniversary of the declaration of the state of Israel, it is my pleasure to address through you all our friends, our allies and even our foes in this global world.

The reason for this is simple, as it is the appropriate moment where the state of Israel needs to rethink itself and re-assess its own achievements and outlooks.

Recent history is well known and the challenge today is to define a course that will generate and accomplish a long term vision of coexistence and acceptance.

Israel is caught between pursuing the policy of settlements to increase its demographic density, its strength, its liberty and the impending necessity to tutor its security and achieve peace with its neighbors.

How Israel will overcome its internal divisions and find the guidance to balance several divergent requirements depends on the quality of national heroes. In setting the priorities not everyone agrees on peace with Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and the rest of the Arabs because the enduring struggle eliminated trust and radicalized positions.

Yet differences must be dealt with and priorities should be identified.

In absence of a common Israeli laic vision of the upcoming near future, the risk is that radical factions might well induce wrong action which dynamics will reverberate on the entire area. Israel is looking into the Iranian nuclear military program with much anxiety and apprehension and it will never accept any external threat to the essence of its existence, a new Shoah is not on the books.

Iranian intransigence and Israeli fears can become the cause for a volcanic ash .

In a time where the US Grand Strategy of the XXI century is focused on managing world affairs by setting a partnership with Russia and concerting Chinese prosperity, we see that the totality of threats and challenges facing the global power is changing as much as its strategic absolutes also. The rational of the coming era is the phase two in out-sourcing and off-shoring of multinationals and the extended areas of operations of the armies for instance the US third army.

Israel understands all this and realizes that its interest is to keep a low profile and to create the best environment for economic growth and development in a sea of peace and security.

Unfortunately, today only growth is a reality, where Israelis are populating bars in Tel Aviv while peace is only a mirage.

The national mantra is to have it both ways, peace and growth under Israeli terms, and I know that this is not possible. As per definition peace means ceding to the counterpart, and this is ceding to the foe.

Is Israel willing to cede? What will Israel cede? These questions are the most important and there are no heroes in sight to shoulder the cause and convince the populace of the interest of all future generations.

Based on the actual policies, Israel will build all over and will not cede anything, and this by itself is the surrender of Jews to fatalism and to a bleak picture, the defeat of the state of Israel. The alternative is to achieve peace with the Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians and the rest of the Arabs. It is also to reach out to the Iranian mainstream and to exert a soft approach enforcing security in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The truth is that Israel is sterile today when it comes to deliver peace, and simultaneously the Arabs lost so many occasions to seal accords for the wellbeing of citizens and for the fellowship of mankind mentioned by Roger Cohen in his “Season of Renewal” .

Israel is conscious that the US will do all possible to impose a new round of sanctions on Iran to gain a new card in negotiations with the IRGC.  Israel is aware also that the US after that can accept the Iranian offer to exchange Uranium on Iranian territory to open the impasse, reach the goal of managing the nuclear file, and ease the geopolitical environment.  Ultimately this step will lessen the pressure in the area, diminish the Israeli fears, and replace Israeli immobility by American dynamism and agility. 

This might not be the best scenario, however the most reasonable.

In fact in presence of an Iranian intransigence, only an American / Iranian arrangement can at this stage distance the conflict from the area.

Between you Elie and me State of Israel, laic Israelis will never unite, hence the highly likely option remains the “Dahyieh Doctrine” , where the actual stalled situation will be “debrised” all over into total damage.

I heard about a Shaban center simulation, and heard about researchers recommending the US to accept the Iranian counteroffer, but never heard about a scenario where the uranium exchange will effectively occur on Iranian territory in exchange for a western wish list.

A wish list coupled to the nuclear file that will reinforce the security and modernity of the Middle East. For one the exchange can work for a new Lebanese government based on a majority concept and exerting monopoly of coercion, for two it can work for a declaration of Palestine in 2011 in the west bank as a first step on the way to final boundaries, for three it can work for free municipal elections in Syria and Iran, and eventually general and presidential elections.

For four it can work to demilitarize Gaza and enhance its social services, for five it can work for Iraqi stability and to end it can work for Afghan insurgency control.

Looking into the prism of profit and loss, any deflagration can bring Israel some temporary benefits perhaps for a decade or so, be it by applying the Dahyieh Doctrine, the clean-up of Lebanon doctrine or even in blinding the Syrian sky Doctrine by neutralizing radars, missiles, aircrafts and airstrips.

From here the best profit is to teach a willing Iranian nation albeit divided how to grow inoffensive.

Iranian divisions are to be exploited to reach common peaceful goals.

I thought to write to you, because all my citizens are not capable to see with their eyes, as they are looking from an angle of defeatism.

Trust Israel will always be here and that the border with Lebanon will open.

Thank You

The State of Israel