Greetings and Good Day,
“ The imperative of responsible world citizenry is to enact safety and security of the global environment”
In an effort to read in the cup of the future on long term basis, one can easily position world affairs to be leveled in several spheres be them economic, technological, social, military or industrial…
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the introduction of the Euro, while Russia is greatly positioning itself as an independent partner to the West, sharing the burden of extending security and democratic stability to large areas of the Eurasian mainland, Germany is surely changing its dress from Mittle- European to European and International.
In view of these fundamental European changes, what rivets strategic importance for global peaceful citizens is to achieve the concerting dimension in the relationship between China from one side and the West, its allies & Russia from another side.
Only by a healthy partnership with Russia and by concerting the Chinese prosperity we can positively impact global geopolitics for many years to come. International relations will need to tackle important issues like climate, energy shortage, food, natural calamities, proliferation of weapons, crisis management, UN reforms, nation building of weak states and control of rogue states, etc…
In a transforming world where nations will play at unison in a global opera, Indian, Brazilian, Turkish and Japanese economies and systems are integral part of modern existing checks and balances. The World Bank shift in voting is an excellent move forward.
It is a fact that the US, Russia and China have a lot of common ground to evolve and nurture several sectors, disarmament, education, medical research, infrastructure, space, tourism, art, architecture, engineering, economy, soil exploitation and finance.
It is a fact also that the West and its partner Russia need to develop their cultural heritage and ensure a safe environment for their populations. I envisage after bailing out Greece with special bonds issued by the IMF and the ECB sponsored and subscribed by an evaluated Yuan, that Russia will negotiate its entry in the Euro Zone to stabilize further the international reserve currency system. The future of the US dollar as reserve currency is much the same of the US super power, transiting from a solo dancer to a concerting ballerina with a couple of partners.
From above and after depicting briefly the upcoming international frame for the coming decades, we need to focus on our days and resolve the spinning situations we are facing in our present world. Having established and summed up the US Grand Strategy to be changing from dancer to ballerina, we need to trace the steps that will lead this transformation to be put gradually in place.
The actual US administration from its own prism, started with the priority of reform in health already approved and finance today reaching the senate aula. Successively it will tackle incentives for connected startups, facilitate the creation of green collars jobs, phase out debt reduction, introduce an incremental VAT taxation, allow further immigration and transform public waste into wealth.
The FED while acquiring expanded powers, will report to an independent body of wise personalities on regular basis and these reports will be published one year after they happen. On the middle run it is expected that it will start raising interests by a quarter point by the end of October of 2010.
Even though the agenda seems looking elsewhere, foreign affairs in general and the area stretching from China to Portugal in particular are always present in the concerns of the White House.
Putting first things first, we need to get the recount results in Baghdad and form the new government by May 10, while paying much attention to the increasing violence of recent days.
After this step the fourth round of sanctions against the IRGC at the UNSC can be approved by May 25. This is to be followed by an accurate assessment of the Iraqi overall situation by June 20 where a scenario of delaying the withdrawal of some 10000 US troops should be readied.
In the mean time by June 30 the campaign in Kandahar should set the stage to entice talks with Taliban factions willing to form a Loya Jirga salvation cabinet, in conformity with the recommendations of NATO’s meeting in Estonia where security issues will be gradually transferred in a possible 4 years frame to the locals in Afghanistan after setting a stable modus operandi.
A successful outcome in peaceful governance in Iraq, in sanctions at the UN and in talks in Afghanistan will portray the US to go decisively on the pivotal round of negotiations with the IRGC to define the modalities of the exchange of Uranium. Where and how the swap will happen and coupled to which wish list is the big question.
The IAEA board will have prepared the terrain of the swap in present talks. The Chinese will have evaluated the Yuan and adhered voluntarily to the Greek bailout, and the US economy will have definitely scored better fundamentals comparing the y/y first semester.
July is the key month in these swap negotiations and whenever talks will not have a positive turning, then the octopus will have a further pressure on its tentacles and the Lebanese ramification will be cut in Mid August. The objective will be to destroy Hizbullah military assets and to put a new Lebanon on track, pronging grand reforms of the state. This green light will be given after convincing Bashar to position international control at the porous borders with Syria to impede any supply of ammunitions during the conflict days from one side and to limit the conflict and have tangible evidence of Bashar’s intentions from another side. Failure of Bashar to abide will mean to propagate the fire inside Syria itself. French envoys soon to arrive in Damascus will tell.
A ground invasion will secure the land until further notice and let Syria also be warned by the US ambassador arriving in June to stay idle or it will be subject to severe damage and unaccountable losses. The IRGC will look at the clean up in Lebanon as a lost card in a poker game, and it will ready itself for the final round of negotiations with the international community in October. Drills in Bandar Abbas will become routine and the clock will start to tick.
Success of Israel to destroy Hizb assets in Lebanon and to create a new Lebanon coupled to the Syrian idle stand cooperating with the west and its partner Russia will set the stage for further isolating the IRGC .
Medvedev during his upcoming visit to Syria will explain to Bashar the stakes of Syrian wrong involvement in other words destruction. Bashar to rape benefits and regain Golan should moderate his stance, facilitate border monitoring with Lebanon and accept direct talks with Israeli counterparts without preconditions. A Summit in Paris for direct talks will be arranged in September. Bashar’s mortal enemy will be miscalculation of happenings and underestimation of Jewish determination.
Jewish culture is liberal by definition and it looks for the unity of mankind.
The US will deploy a massive defensive/offensive build up in the Gulf starting July and simultaneously apply targeted and smart sanctions until an accord is reached with the IRGC. A veiled Iranian technique in negotiations can activate a flare up in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But even though in presence of high pressure applied by both sides, the wish is for an agreement to be reached, otherwise whenever there will be no agreement and the IRGC will insist to have the last say, the ultimate alternative will be to take ultimate decisions.
Immediately after mid term elections in November, whenever the Iranians will not lessen their intransigence, and the silent struggle will not put in place an accord, the only possible option left meant as a last resort to curb the ignorance of the IRGC will be to authorize surprise aerial/special strategic and tactical attacks on IRGC assets that will last between 8 and 14 days.
Resisting factors to the above are the failure of Israel to clean up Lebanon, the Syrian involvement widening the front of war in the Levant, or the IRGC decision to open the front with Israel already in August.
However in evaluating the profit and losses equation and examining the historic record and the psychological profiles, there are excellent chances that a successful clean up in Lebanon and following talks with Syria for a final arrangement in Golan, will convince the IRGC to accept a deal with the US.
In view of this perspective I recommend the NPA to immediately accept the temporary borders of the state of Palestine and to work for any date to announce it in 2011.
In persistence of obtusely keeping intransigent positions, the IRGC will force the US to boldly act and the “day after” will be a safer world, open for cooperation and concert, where the US in synchrony with others will keep trade routes open and help transform planet Earth into a better place for all citizens benefiting from universal rights and freedoms.
“You need to master universal power to share it with others in concert”