Lebanese Political Stimulus

May 11, 2009

In an objective effort to promote Lebanese national interests,

observers and policy makers differ how to prioritize and to set

the agenda.

The upcoming Lebanese General Elections while they are an extremely

important appointment with the rights of the eligible voters to express their

legal representatives, unfortunately so far they are lacking the most important

portion of the national debate: The vision.

 

Trying to find solutions it is fundamental to initiate by identifying at first

basic problems. In Lebanon there are chronic problems linked to the social

structure of the nation, retarding its insertion into modernity.

Corruption is opposed to accountability, freewheeling is opposed to planning,

friction is opposed to governance and dualism is opposed to nationalism.

If it is true that we can not stir events in the Middle East to detach Lebanon from

the intricacy and complexity of the surrounding problems, it is also true that

a sincere coordinated effort can at least circumvent regionalism and reduce its

preponderant direct negativities.

It is simple to realize that in order to approve effective reforms in all sectors,

as a first step, it is obligatory to have a strong state.

Based on above and considering the international economic contraction, represented

by unemployment in the US, deflation in China and halting of major real estate development plans in The Gulf, perhaps Lebanon can transform a global

liability into an opportunity.

The idea is to empower the environment for peace through a Lebanese

Political Stimulus where the slogan of a strong state will be translated into

accurate and precise proposals.

In order for Lebanon to prepare itself against downturns and crisis, it should

achieve few things rapidly. Put all necessary steps together to create an economy

based on private investment and job creation from one side, and from another

recruit a large number of citizens from both sexes into the armed forces.

A political program based on enticing citizens to be part of the armed forces

and their different intelligence agencies, is crucial to reach two simultaneous

results, from one side to decrease the number of joblessness in the basin of employment,

and from the other it will increase the power of the state as a force capable to

defend its interests within its territories.

In tandem with the armed forces recruitment openings, it is necessary to move forward

with semi-privatization of MEA, Telecoms, EDL, wind energy Offshore and in the plain of Akkar, and most important to improve the infrastructure by opening a second airport and rehabilitating a railroad system.

A total force of 150,000 men and women will be credible to secure the territory and to monitor the boundaries, impeding any infiltrations and creating deterrence for possible

aggressions.

Only a strong Lebanon in its army and its economy can be a reliable partner for regional

Peace.


Democratic Stability in Lebanon

May 9, 2009

In less than one month, general elections will take place
in Lebanon and it is expected that this event, where the citizenry
will exert its right, will carry in it major geopolitical significance.
In Lebanon there are between 17 and 19 confessions, and at least
an equivalent number of political parties or organizations.
The local mosaic reflects variety, which is by itself enriching for the
social tissue. Tolerance and acceptance are the basic requirements in the
national formula to enhance cohesion, unity, harmony and convergence.
The essence of the Lebanese history is giving by nature, where the soul of the
citizens in synchrony with the land, projects dedication to labor, spontaneity and hospitality.
Since the installation of different communities on this portion of the Mediterranean shores and hinterland, they always struggled to make a decent living, pioneering trade and exchanging knowledge and culture.
Assimilated in its geographic basin, Lebanon could not escape its destiny to shoulder
responsibility, in view of the declaration of independence of many states after the end
of world War II. Co-founder of different international bodies, it opened its territory
to welcome many unfortunate citizens, who were obliged to leave their homes by
violent circumstances.
The nature of the persisting conflict between the state of Israel and the National Palestinian Authority did not help to stabilize the situation in the entire Middle East.
It is understood that resolving this conflict and reaching a durable and just agreement
will immensely help the populations of the region to walk the path of prosperity and education. To help end the conflict different options can be envisaged, one can be to chose the developing armed struggle, while another more effective is the diplomatic approach.

Based on above, I can easily say that in the upcoming Lebanese elections there are two
distinct opposed visions, the first aspiring to maintain constant flare ups and
military confrontation, while the second is concretely working within the community of nations to define in dignity an acceptable peace accord for all involved parts.
To oversimplify I say that there is an axis of refusal opposed to an alliance of dialogue.
The axis of refusal has not so far elaborated a vision where all existing entities can live
side by side, it practiced a destructive performance, aided a lot ironically by the intransigence of many Israeli, Iranian, and Syrian hardliners who lack also any vision of connivance.
From the other side we have aligned the alliance of dialogue which suffered from
mortal attacks on many of its dignitaries, yet it did not lose the pendulum nor the
political guidance.

Observers worldwide are looking for hints to understand what is behind the Lebanese
General Elections. Therefore it is my intent to contribute starting today and for the coming month with series of frequent written notes to spread an objective view on this event expected to boost democratic stability.


A visitor to planet Earth

May 8, 2009

Looking into the prism of the stress test, announced results show that 10 US banks
need injection of financial cash, while the remnant banks managed seemingly to manipulate their results. A visitor to planet earth, crossing into beginning of October
with a time machine, can easily forecast the ineffectiveness of the economic cure pursued so far, where enduring depressive effects will most likely survive the end of the
pandemic flu already retreating . While job losses will continue to build, and industrial figures will remain negative, it is expected that somewhere between July and the fall, the financial, insurance and real estate sectors will reach their bottom.
Investors will look into a transparent financial hub to substitute London and New York, and to their disappointment they will not find in Shanghai, Mumbai or Moscow any hub.
World wealth will conserve the path of decrease and the L model will unfortunately be thought to prevail for sometime.
Geopolitics and Geo-Strategy will induce the doctrine of different armies to model themselves as per a variety of new threats to be added to Symmetric and Asymmetric warfare. The cycle of real economy in China exporting and accumulating wealth to be invested into US debt will be addressed in future bilateral adjustments expected to be evaluated with the advent of the fifth generation of Chinese leaders, not before 2012 in any case.
Observers will look into India, Brazil and Australia for signs of recovery; however it is likely that these signs will first start in an old spot, located in Old Europe, and this is Germany. A new model of Lander governance is being experimented where Greens are allied with Christian democrats and this formula can expand on national level, generating a new European momentum in September, in concomitance with the elections. German and French reach to Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Russia can play a fundamental role to transform the area from Calais to Chah-Bahar to become the locomotive of the 21st Century as a support to another locomotive stretching from Beijing to Washington and passing by Hanoi.
A third pole formed by India, Japan, Korea and Brazil can start to look into the second half of the century to develop a leading international role.
Poor countries will receive some help from the World Bank and the IMF to exit actual contraction. It is thought that the US will either introduce the American Monetary Act to print its own money, nationalize the Federal Reserve to become first resource lender or emit centennial Treasury Bonds to stabilize the monetary market called “Twenty Second” Bonds.
Meanwhile using the same time machine, our visitor will try to stop in the year 2025 to check on the Middle East, but he wouldn’t make it because unless a two states solution will be achieved, mixed economic industrial zones will work on full power, integration and civil rights will be implemented, there can be no clearance for such a desire.
He will be allowed only to have a bird view to ascertain that Iranian power struggle ended with a sophisticated strategy, and that is never to pursue a nuclear weapon and to become the main supplier for energy to Europe.
The change in Iranian attitude rotated profoundly the relation with Israel and this
helped immensely to defuse Middle Eastern tension.


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May 8, 2009

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