Geneva 2

September 30, 2013

Russia-487

Russia-487 (Photo credit: didkovskaya)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Today is the end of September and looking back to the first days of this month, we can easily say, that the sequence of events linked to the ME was definitely rapid.

In an effort to help on the Syrian crisis to be defused, and in order to identify an acceptable route map for a new Syria to kick start; an enormous contribute is necessary, to transform the conflict, in an opportunity of peace keeping, and nation building.

I tend to believe that a good preparation for Geneva 2 will reveal important for world powers, to avoid failure or a scenario of repeated conferences or hostilities leading nowhere.

Looking into the history of some past conflicts we can to some extent, deduce some teachings, which can lead us to say, that perhaps we are approaching an important stage in the conflict resolution in Syria.

Observers are likely to explore the Geneva 2 conference to understand its contour before the meetings debut.

Some experts might create scenarios and simulate negotiations that will trace itineraries which will possibly be implemented.

In truth many questions to be posed will require a historic background in international conferences, a profound understanding of the Syrian nation/ state and the complexity of international, regional and local interests involved.

The fluid Syrian panorama includes important aspects for many players such as Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, ISIL, FSA, USA, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, KSA etc…

In my understanding the conference to start, will need at least, a definition of its components, an agenda even if subject to changes and finally a date or a calendar of dates.

The participants in the conference will presumably be: the UN, the Arab League, the Red Cross, Refugees Agencies, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, the EU, Russia, Germany, France, UK, US, China and of course a delegation of the Assad regime willing to safeguard what remains of the Syrian State and a delegation of the Syrian revolution preferably at least five members including women, having all equal say and headed by the designated pm dentist from Deir el Zor).

The agenda will include a variety of topics obviously, from security to politics, yet what all analysts expect is an immediate cessation of hostilities coupled to immediate release of all prisoners.

Once the cease fire is in place and work to destroy the CW program and stockpile will be in progress and ongoing, parallel talks will move forward to define the transitional phase and what can be expected of it.

It is understood that Assad will remain in office, only until the presidential mandate expiry, and that the CW destruction will be put on a solid and irreversible track by then.

I forecast the conference to be called by mid December, and the cessation of hostilities and prisoners release to be declared and achieved by the end of the year.

The major political issues, will be dealt with, once, confidence building and good-will measures will be implemented. And this can take off from January 2014.

It is expected that the outcome of Geneva 2 will be an agreed transitional cabinet, which will include representatives of the different components, of the opposition and of the institutions of the Syrian state.

The transitional cabinet will replace the president at the expiry of the mandate to fill the gap.

It goes without saying that the most inner Assad clan, cannot be included in any future formula, hence talks will focus on the transition; and on how to represent the collective Syrian population, in a system that will ensure a modern state and universal rights in a homegrown equation that will guarantee peace and prosperity.

In the coming months, international powers have all interest to persuade Assad, not to stall the CW disarmament process and to desist from the mortal pursue of a new mandate.

This time frame until April or May will be useful to set a path of negotiation with Iran meanwhile, and to prepare the stage for a possible Geneva 2 failure.

The price of failure will be very high to bear; in fact this can easily lead to a reprisal of confrontation in June, where F 35 jets will make their opening in a theater of conflict, in case CW stalling tactics are evident by Assad.

Whenever Assad will ease on CW program but will try to keep his positions on the rest, it is plausible to determine that  flare ups of belligerent acts will be witnessed in new round of hostilities.

The importance of Geneva 2 is equal to the Madrid conference, where multilateral talks started and led to a framework useful for Arab countries to approve the declaration of Beirut.

Geneva 2 is a multilateral forum that will mark the future of Syria and will draw parallels with the Iranian file, and the positive role this nation can play as a regional power.

The state of Israel will inevitably consider all this, and realize how delicate and intricate will be for the US to conduct a diplomatic and consequential path on both the Syrian and Iranian tracks.

From above I am convinced that the coming winter months, will see a very acute phase of negotiations, although it is necessary to be cautious in raising expectations.

Thank you,

 


A Sophisticated Eclipse

September 27, 2013

Syria

Syria (Photo credit: Yishac – Isaac Alvarez i Brugada)

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

As observers are expecting the UN Security Council, to finalize the draft resolution with strong wording on Syria by today, analysts are working hard to determine the future evolution of the Iranian nuclear file.

 

It is very comforting to have the Syrian crisis and the Iranian pending file proceeding towards a desired diplomatic breakthrough.

 

It remains to be seen how effectively events will unfold and we all look for a positive reflection on the Syrian refugees and Iranian population.

 

In Syria Mr. Assad should learn from the Sudanese President, who defied the international community for long, and now he managed to divide his country in two Sudan,and to witness present popular uprisings threatening the essence of the state. Sudan’s Al Bashir didn’t accomplish any significant reform and he only focused on oil profits.

 

And although Sudan and Syria have a different social composition, yet acting presidents are behaving in a similar way.

 

What President Assad needs to do is to consign the CW, repent & go to exile and for the sake of Syrian well being and of the entire humanity to facilitate the dawn of a new republic in Syria, or else he will higher the risks of his unknown fate.

 

Unknown fate! Let’s not forget that the strong resolution will mention that individuals responsible for the chemical attack in Syria will be prosecuted.

 

Often a sophisticated eclipse is much more remembered than a lot of shining rays.

 

Lebanon which is hosting a significant portion of refugees is in process to form a new government, where options are reduced to a cabinet for all or a cabinet of last resort.

 

Major aspirations are in place to have a government for all after the recent opening of Hezbollah expressed in the last speech of the general secretary Mr. Nasrallah.

 

It happens also that Lebanon has an extended mandate of its own parliament, which fact is playing against those citing the parliament representation, as only parameter for the new government formation.

 

In truth with the election of the Lebanese president approaching, the new cabinet “for all” can become holding the entire constitutional bottoms of power, hence in its formation there should be inclusion also of civil society components not resting in the extended parliament.

 

From above I see the upcoming formula as a cabinet of 30 ministers, where there will be 4 groups, 10 ministers for Hezbollah allies (8 March), 10 ministers for the prime minister and allies (14 March), 4 ministers for the president of the republic and the PSP, and 6 ministers for independents belonging to the social stream outside the parliament (intellectuals, bankers, captains of industry, business people, women in career, etc).

 

What is required today before tomorrow is that the PM designate will refresh his efforts in this direction by consulting again with the Lebanese mosaic.

 

It is also required that the Lebanese president during his visit to KSA next week will elaborate on this formula that will ultimately represent the extra mile effort to form the cabinet.

 

I am confident by now that within the next meeting of the 5 plus one and Iran in Geneva in October, the Lebanese will have formed the long awaited cabinet.

 

“Where objectivity, independence, clarity, integrity and valor persist, inevitably growth and prosperity will proceed”.

 

Thank You,

 

 

 


The Invisible Hand

September 25, 2013

Quds Force Operations in 8 divisions

Quds Force Operations in 8 divisions (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the opening of the UN general assembly, some topics emerge strongly on the international scene.

 

The Syrian crisis, the Iranian nuclear file, the monitoring of information and the global economy are perhaps the most visible.

 

As for the Syrian crisis, it is clear by now what are the expectations of the Syrian population, in the heroic struggle, to establish a new national accord and a reformed state.

 

The international conference of Geneva is the viable forum, for talks and agreements, to take place with the aim of coexistence, justice, liberties, modernity and security.

 

Factions and brokers will undoubtedly negotiate as soon as January, a framework of transition, to a peaceful nation with guarantees of geopolitical interests for many players.

 

Although my understanding is, that the Assad clan will be out of the formula,

 

I can’t imagine an effective solution in Syria, without the contribution of the Iranians.

 

We know that an invisible hand was orchestrating the meetings of President Hassan Rouhani at the UN, reflecting the whispers of the inner circle in Tehran.

 

Observers could detect mixed signals coming out of Tehran in the immediate phase leading to the meetings at The UN.

 

There were articles, tweets and greets from one side coupled to missiles displays, parliament drafts and inauguration of plants from another.

 

The imminent interest of Tehran seems to be, to relief sanctions and avoid clashes with the US, while those of the US are focused to verify the nuclear Iranian research to be peaceful and create in tandem a sort of converging vision with Iran in the MENA region.

 

The meeting tomorrow between Iran and the 5 plus 1 group of nations is a step in the right direction, to explore diplomacy; however it is insufficient to generate concrete results.

 

What I see as required, is to build on the actual positive climate, where the US will propose to Iran, to set a first annual high level bilateral direct meeting, in the end of October in Beirut, where comprehensive talks will tackle a multitude of issues.

 

The US delegation can be led by the Secretary of State and include the CIA director.

 

Obviously the tracks to be discussed are multiple and intelligence is pivotal to indicate a practical path.

 

 

 

This brings us to the necessity of keeping a free flow of information in place while simultaneously exerting smooth monitoring on data.

 

It is important to understand that without information gathering we couldn’t learn about Natanz, Bushehr, Fordow, Arak, or even about the name of the daughter of the NK leader or the liberal views of the daughter of the Quds force.

 

Definitely information is linked to security and its appropriate handling by trained experts with knowledge of privacy and respect of specifics, is very important and will help on international prosperity and security.

 

My hope is that the Israeli establishment will seize the UN moment to talk about peace with the surrounding environment and to stress the national necessity to tutor its own security without rhetoric.

 

Military readiness and contingencies are always integral part of any political breakthrough.

 

Pending issues in politics led us to data, and inevitably this will bring us ultimately to productivity and markets.

 

 

 

Global growth is an immense challenge and achievements in this field are enormous.

 

Be this in China, Japan, Bangladesh, Turkey, India, South Africa, Australia Brazil or/and in many other nations.

 

Without doubt, markets are connected and a rapid link ensures velocity and tenure of transmission of levels for value and for services.

 

Offer will be always generated to play into demand and consumers will necessarily be in the fulcrum of the economic daily life.

 

Food, drinks, arms, durable goods, waste and environment will always be on our screens.

 

International relations are manageable often through the fruit of monetary policies and economic performance.

 

 

 

Education, immigration, business and social services will never cease to be the pillar of humanity.

 

 

 

Thank you        

 

 

 

 


At Large

September 23, 2013

OpenStreetMap Logo

OpenStreetMap Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the results of the German elections, a cabinet sponsored by a grand coalition can be envisaged, where the winning party will form the cabinet together to Social Democrats and the Greens.

 

Two of Europe’s biggest industries will be having a similar government (Italy and Germany) working on compromise to define a better policy for progress.

 

In Italy the cabinet will need to put through a policy to target the public debt and unemployment, or else a new election will be looming.

 

While in Germany the compromise will be, to achieve a smart energy policy coupled to an infrastructure investment, and a minimum wage adjustment that will not negatively influence exports.

 

Compromise is the essence of government, as multiple interests often collide and impede the civil society to act in dynamics that represent only one actor. The role of politicians is to mediate and to find solutions, and whenever they fail, as in Lebanon presently the interests of the collectivity will be endangered.

 

The hope for Lebanon in light of the Iranian charm offensive is to form a cabinet soon that will tackle major issues such as; neutral stance, dilution of the bifurcate divergence into a colorful and multifaceted cooperation, economic recovery, social crisis, security environment, strategic depth, constitutional reforms, start ups and job creation.

 

Definitely the challenge for the US in view of the looming deadline of the new fiscal year is to find a line of balance, where a reasonable raise of the public debt will be approved, together to an adjustment in expenditure in the federal budget that will not nullify food stamps.

 

It goes without saying that the market already accepted lady vice chairman, as a successor to Mr. Bernanke, where a predictable and gradual taper will be applied starting October, in an attentive effort to gather a pace between national interests “at large” and international markets performance.

 

As already described in a previous contribute, the national interests in our modern era are better defined “at large”, rather than in a thin prism of local and condensed view. The collectivity belonging to any nation is better served, whenever a wise and methodical process of understanding, is applied to geography, history, economics and to the international dynamics.

 

Analysts are elaborating about the last Russian diplomatic approach to the Syrian CW, the effective resolution of this file peacefully and the ramification of a political solution. It is reasonable to expect inspectors to arrive in Syria by the end of October, and that the process of political negotiation will begin in January, based on the principle of a new Syrian national accord that will pave the way for a transitional government.

 

The upcoming three months might reveal pivotal for the life line extended by the Iranian Republican Guards Council & the Supreme Leader, to the new Iranian president. Observers are considering that Mr. Rouhani doesn’t have much time ahead and that his space to maneuver is limited. I tend to differ on this, simply because the new president is the only asset in place for the option of a negotiated approach, that will avoid the climate of confrontation, be it through sanctions or a military engagement.

 

Hence I consider the Iranian president there to stay for long inn diplomacy and therefore the investment on shaking hands with him is not sufficient. The US approach should be, as a hosting player to the UN forum, to deliver much honor and welcoming.

 

I consider that in this particular momentum in international relations there are no two nations on earth that can benefit more from a rapprochement more than Iran and the US.

 

The principle to be enunciated is to accept the peaceful nuclear research in Iran as per international protocols, while ensuring the security of the state of Israel unconditionally, to permit this state to eliminate its own WMD, once peace treaties are in place accepting Israel as a final nation.

 

There is a concrete possibility that the decade 2014-2024 will be of enormous enhancement for the living conditions in the ME, where negotiations will succeed to deliver.

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


The upcoming

September 20, 2013

English: United Nations General Assembly hall ...

English: United Nations General Assembly hall in New York City. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

As observers are looking at major events, a critical mass of reasoning should emerge for policy makers to select the best choices.

 

Topics ranging from the US economy, the FED tapering, the US budget, the Debt Ceiling, Social Care, to International as Syria, Iran, Niger, Mexico, China and North Korea deserve a lot of understanding and analysis.

 

Perhaps the position of the FED to defer the decision to taper is very indicative on what the expectation is all about, a compromise on the budget and the debt in order to avoid a partial government shutdown.

 

Perhaps also that the US/Russian framework to set a control mechanism of Syrian CW is precious to realize how much all players are in need of a precious commodity: time.

 

So until a political conference is held for Syria, the crisis will be ongoing and the environment will be stalling.

 

In view of the UN general assembly eyes will be on the Iranian president charm offensive and how he can deploy diplomacy to avoid the economic crisis and find an acceptable compromise for the nuclear file.  Negotiations with Mr. Rouhani will stretch from Fordo to Syrian CW, from enriched Uranium to the Lebanese new cabinet, from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Pakistan to Iran, from Israel to peace, from sanctions to international cooperation.

 

Considering the interests in play, it is a fact that never as before the US and Iran have interest to work in tandem to get mutual benefits that will reverberate on all others.

 

Maybe experts will look to transform the investment in Fordow Mountain, to become an incinerator for CW?

 

The upcoming period is very interesting to watch a lot of unfolding events,

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 

 


National Interest old and new

September 16, 2013

150 px

150 px (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“No matter whether a victory or a peace agreement terminates the civil war, it has to be decided, which demands of the parties to the conflict are to be implemented partially or completely. Post-civil war orders institutionalize these decisions and differ in the respective extent they realize only the demands of one side or balance the competing claims.” One-sided or balanced: Which post-civil war order secures the intrastate peace?  Prof Margit Bussman.

In an effort to put forward a better understanding, of global affairs and international relations, without doubt, the framework agreed upon between the US and Russia vis a’ vis the Syrian chemical file, represents a precious sample to discern.

Academics will examine thoroughly the various phases that led to the framework, and will write about this cornerstone in diplomacy, on which a geopolitical edifice of balancing interests in the ME can take shape.

It is understood that a US/Russian draft will be sent to the OPCW and followed up by a UNSC resolution that will technically accelerate the rhythm of the international control on Syrian CW. This endeavor is immense and necessitates a major support from all thinkers, although this agreement can be exploited by the Assad clan to stall and gain time.  In practice a process started and it will move forward until the accomplishment of the mission.

The agreement by itself is not a political solution, but an intermediary step to pave the way for a platform to become visible where a compromise of sort can be declared to tutor the Syrian population for the coming decades.

An international forum such as Geneva 2 is the only way to determine a Syrian political solution, and this in principle will call for the establishment of an inclusive national conference, to write a new constitution and submit it to a referendum. Afterwards a transition government can call on local elections and general elections.

The mechanism of power sharing as much as institutional checks and balances should consider the delicate balancing of minority rights and the territorial devolution and also the federal spending concept.

We all know that drought in North East Syria was a main problem as much as the true representation of clans and tribes, or other communities in the governance system, was a fireball, that the regime of Assad couldn’t handle.

In truth to persuade the collectivity and steer it during Assad son regime, a nuance of modernity and progress in some universities was applied but the old rhetoric of propaganda never evolved.

Where Assad failed to introduce reforms, a new Syrian state can only allow a flexible administrative and fiscal maneuver by some territories as a possible solution. The laic nature and the equity of the Syrian state will be the essence of the accord.

I am sure that the appropriate momentum for an accord is close even though all players should assume a different attitude. We know that Assad son has no place in the future of Syria, he killed enough people and we also know that the Alawite community will be in Syria forever.

We know that Mr. Putin is not willing to act as a sponsor to depose Assad but we also know that he will not oppose a solution where the balancing interests of the powers involved will be guaranteed.

This brings us to understand what are the Russian national interests and those of the US, furthermore to mirror the concept of national interest.

It is a fact that the elements of national interest in the era where planet earth goes global, are difficult to decipher. Since the inception of the nation/state until the Second Gulf War passing by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and by several economic challenges, the determination of national interest evolved within certain dynamics and metrics; but could not project the geopolitical thought beyond national boundaries.

Think tanks and Centers do require from analysts and collaborators to contribute in terms of advancing a national interest.

Perhaps policy makers are not attentive that there is no more national interest as it used to be.

The last episode of the agreement between the US and Russia is evidence, where isolationists and globalists in the US were diametrically opposed.

National interest used to project in international affairs an old mantra, and it used to represent a sphere of conformity, nowadays the national interest projects a balancing act between a group of entities be these nations, groups, corporations, banks or else. Hence the sphere is fashionable, colorful, sometimes opposed by the mob as unacceptable.

Examples of national interest chapters abound from the Iranian nuclear industry, to the Venezuelan oil industry, to the Russian gas industry, to the Chinese tech industry, to the German automotive industry.

The challenge of the new national interest and the modern grand strategy is that they create a new environment where the citizen is not ready yet to follow as much as institutes or thinkers alike.

Arms sales, Organic food, water and perishable or toxic items are examples of global interests where the citizen has much at risk and is behind in understanding.

The gap is between the CITIZEN who acquired technology and “whatsup” like, models of communication, social media “facebook” happenings; and between the INSTITUTIONS in control of the minutes.

The Snowden Case is the iceberg of the gap.

Efforts to bridge the international citizenry on a global scale are in place, where hundreds of directors in trillion dollars funds do elaborate development policies for new products and new markets.

Not always this mission is successful and episodes can compromise the peaceful environment and generate misgivings, qualms and worries.  From above we can realize that only a free flow of information and an immense monitoring of information are intertwined for the best advancement of humanity.

What is needed is a deep reflection of sort on the meanings of the citizen, the state, the nation and earth in an era of rapid inventions and fundamental changes.

“Information flow in an information theoretical context is the transfer of information from a variable xto a variable yin a given process. Not all flows may be desirable.” Information theory, Wikipedia

May a balanced peace take place in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Iran, Tunisia, Sudan, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and others, a regional national interest for the global citizen.

Thank you,

 


The Age of Phantom Diplomacy

September 11, 2013

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63.

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“…in the newly minted “field” of public diplomacy – a hybrid “discipline” that draws upon the social sciences, journalism, foreign language and cultural expertise. Public diplomacy is foremost a skill, like it or not, that is most effectively learned from practitioners and best acquired on the job”.

It is unprecedented in international affairs to witness such a velocity in current diplomatic happenings.

Perhaps we should call it the Age of phantom diplomacy.

Can this rapidly evolving international diplomatic climate represent a promise for a political platform in Syria or it will pave the way for military escalation?

We know that the floated Russian proposal related to the Syrian chemical weapons was welcomed by the Syrian dictator, however we still lack any detail of implementation as per Russian agenda and desire.

We know also that the draft resolution submitted by the French for consultations at the UNSC was already declined in its form by the Russians, and this leaves the international community in apprehension, as chancelleries are wondering if and when there will be a deal .

We know also that the US president in his address yesterday to the US nation stressed the importance to keep the credible military threat vivid underlining the necessity of American unity behind the strike, while giving priority to diplomacy to exhaust its energy and set a course .

We know also that on Thursday the US and Russian secretaries of state will meet.

What we ignore from all above is how the Syrians will come clean, by their acceptance of the Russian proposal, and how their tactics to stall will be deployed on the international arena, at least to have a benefit, for next year’s presidential elections in Syria. In truth the dictator will do all possible to gain a new mandate, without introducing any reform to the system, to become parliamentarian or reinforce the rights of different communities, by sharing governance and distributing on equal demographic and geographic basis, the national resources.

Nonetheless, analysts do expect a strong resolution authorizing international forces to account for, control and destroy the  storage, and all other facilities including questioning of the scientists.

Analysts expect also the Syrian criminal regime to immediately publish a list of sites , of quantities , of delivery weapons , of laboratories; and of scientists working on the chemical storage. This will go in tandem with the authorization of unfettered access of international monitoring to the CW storage in multiple sites and to laboratories declared or suspected.

Analysts do expect also that perpetrators of Chemical crimes will be brought to justice. They also expect the US and allies to keep the credible military threat coupled to enforcing a rational and secure UN mechanism to destroy CW.

It is obvious that the congress will remain seized on the issue while working also on the agenda of big issues, deficit, debt-ceiling, immigration, sanity, taxation, FED nominee, etc.

US Lawmakers in their multiple responsibilities, should express their stands on behalf of their constituencies and simultaneously create unity for national security issues.

It goes without saying that the resolute stand of the US administration is one of the main reasons for the dramatic and accelerated Russian proposal.

Although we ignore the details of the conversation between the two presidents and who was present during the meeting, which was previously canceled for the Snowden case, our desire is that this Russian proposal, will be entrusted and followed up by a political breakthrough.

It is a matter of fact that interests can intersect or diverge, The US and Israel have a common interest to destroy the Syrian chemical arsenal, while the Russians and Syrians have an interest, to renew the Syrian presidential mandate and set a different strategic balance not resorting to Chemical balance.

The question posed is how many civilians will die more in Syria waiting for a true solution?

In truth what is presented for now is interesting yet partial, it might take out the chemical arsenal to be replaced by other armaments; but it will not reform the Syrian system nor will ensure universal rights for the citizens. This intersection can be effective for international powers and for the security of Israel but in the same time, it can be not, for the rights of the people, to express itself, and this is what all the Syrian crisis is all about.  Hence my perception is, that a partial proposal will prolong the agony of the Syrian state, keeping in place a dictator who plays by some norms, while crossing others and this is the lesser evil for chancelleries.

Looking from another prism we can say that Assad son dispersed the legacy of Assad father.

He was responsible for the security when Hariri was killed, and he consequently lost full control in Lebanon.

He was in charge of Syrian reforms when the revolution started, and he lost the monopoly of coercion and the territorial integrity.

He was the ultimate custodian of CW when these were used, and he is about to lose the storage and alter the strategic balance for long pursued by his father.

In the effort to govern and implement his policies Bashar Assad overestimates his own strength, and in practice he enlarges favors to Israel and the US as nobody else. So why change him? He cuts deals favoring others and applies policies that deteriorate the national interests of his own collectivity.

The involvement of Hezbollah by the Syrian regime is to be traced in the policies that will eventually weaken the entire arsenal of Iran in the area, as much as the immediate acceptance of the Russian offer by the Syrians was either an indirect hit to Iranian soft power, or an opening for further developments on the Iranian file.

In the negotiation between Russia and the West for the Syrian crisis, regional powers have a lesser say, therefore the mechanism for a deal should have different considerations not only linked to the short run.

The lessons that can be learned by Hezbollah is that interests can shift and that having a line of supply through Syria, doesn’t justify its own intervention in Syria or the derailment of the political and security environment in Lebanon.

Hezbollah an Iranian proxy has now a multiple usage, a multilateral action, in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. It will not exit the Syrian trap and will never tend a helping hand to the pm designate to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource.

As any delay to form the cabinet in Lebanon, will cause Lebanon more losses and will generate a high risk for the essence of the national interests, the main responsible for the present idle situation at this stage are only the pm designate and the Lebanese president.

Both Mr. Michel Suleiman and Mr. Tammam Salam are requested to proceed urgently to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource. Failure to do so will widen the gap of the institutions with the people, and will only increase the area of operation of independent militias.

The Syrian crisis today is focused on the control of the CW, but we all know that this is a door that can well open into a limited political breakthrough or deteriorate into a military action.

How will Bashar trust to defend his crimes while his chemical dent will be destroyed?

Most likely a tactic of delays and stalling will be soon evident and my forecast is that the Russian proposal will continue to be exploited to gain time, which is precious for all actors to apply their own policies and exert pressures.

Although the proceedings in the congress for approval of military strike will proceed in parallel with the Russian proposal, my assessment is that the mechanism for CW control and dismantlement is extremely complex.  By itself the game of the nations is extremely cynic and treacherous.  The result for now is that military action can be undertaken only after the UN general assembly and the German elections.

Meanwhile the FED will have announced its gradual and predictable tapering to start in October by founding very likely only 78 Billion dollars, and this is a balanced step to safeguard the monetary and reserve problems of India, Turkey, Russia and Brazil.  Isn’t this process a responsible US international attitude of governance?

Perhaps Isolationists will realize what a connected world is, where Russia is projecting a perception of pseudo grandeur while the US is mastering the initiative and the tempo.

How win-win for all in the era of phantom diplomacy is based on the pillar of human loss?

Politics at best. Where are China and Iran? Will there be a strike that might endanger Israeli and Lebanese lives?

“Political evolution, on the other hand, is located at the creative cutting-edge, where old problems are solved with new techniques or new forms of organization, and where new problems are brought under political control”  Peter A Corning , Synergy, Cybernetics and the Evolution of Politics.

Thank you