Greetings and Good Day,
Today is the end of September and looking back to the first days of this month, we can easily say, that the sequence of events linked to the ME was definitely rapid.
In an effort to help on the Syrian crisis to be defused, and in order to identify an acceptable route map for a new Syria to kick start; an enormous contribute is necessary, to transform the conflict, in an opportunity of peace keeping, and nation building.
I tend to believe that a good preparation for Geneva 2 will reveal important for world powers, to avoid failure or a scenario of repeated conferences or hostilities leading nowhere.
Looking into the history of some past conflicts we can to some extent, deduce some teachings, which can lead us to say, that perhaps we are approaching an important stage in the conflict resolution in Syria.
Observers are likely to explore the Geneva 2 conference to understand its contour before the meetings debut.
Some experts might create scenarios and simulate negotiations that will trace itineraries which will possibly be implemented.
In truth many questions to be posed will require a historic background in international conferences, a profound understanding of the Syrian nation/ state and the complexity of international, regional and local interests involved.
In my understanding the conference to start, will need at least, a definition of its components, an agenda even if subject to changes and finally a date or a calendar of dates.
The participants in the conference will presumably be: the UN, the Arab League, the Red Cross, Refugees Agencies, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, the EU, Russia, Germany, France, UK, US, China and of course a delegation of the Assad regime willing to safeguard what remains of the Syrian State and a delegation of the Syrian revolution preferably at least five members including women, having all equal say and headed by the designated pm dentist from Deir el Zor).
The agenda will include a variety of topics obviously, from security to politics, yet what all analysts expect is an immediate cessation of hostilities coupled to immediate release of all prisoners.
Once the cease fire is in place and work to destroy the CW program and stockpile will be in progress and ongoing, parallel talks will move forward to define the transitional phase and what can be expected of it.
It is understood that Assad will remain in office, only until the presidential mandate expiry, and that the CW destruction will be put on a solid and irreversible track by then.
I forecast the conference to be called by mid December, and the cessation of hostilities and prisoners release to be declared and achieved by the end of the year.
The major political issues, will be dealt with, once, confidence building and good-will measures will be implemented. And this can take off from January 2014.
It is expected that the outcome of Geneva 2 will be an agreed transitional cabinet, which will include representatives of the different components, of the opposition and of the institutions of the Syrian state.
The transitional cabinet will replace the president at the expiry of the mandate to fill the gap.
It goes without saying that the most inner Assad clan, cannot be included in any future formula, hence talks will focus on the transition; and on how to represent the collective Syrian population, in a system that will ensure a modern state and universal rights in a homegrown equation that will guarantee peace and prosperity.
In the coming months, international powers have all interest to persuade Assad, not to stall the CW disarmament process and to desist from the mortal pursue of a new mandate.
This time frame until April or May will be useful to set a path of negotiation with Iran meanwhile, and to prepare the stage for a possible Geneva 2 failure.
The price of failure will be very high to bear; in fact this can easily lead to a reprisal of confrontation in June, where F 35 jets will make their opening in a theater of conflict, in case CW stalling tactics are evident by Assad.
Whenever Assad will ease on CW program but will try to keep his positions on the rest, it is plausible to determine that flare ups of belligerent acts will be witnessed in new round of hostilities.
The importance of Geneva 2 is equal to the Madrid conference, where multilateral talks started and led to a framework useful for Arab countries to approve the declaration of Beirut.
Geneva 2 is a multilateral forum that will mark the future of Syria and will draw parallels with the Iranian file, and the positive role this nation can play as a regional power.
The state of Israel will inevitably consider all this, and realize how delicate and intricate will be for the US to conduct a diplomatic and consequential path on both the Syrian and Iranian tracks.
From above I am convinced that the coming winter months, will see a very acute phase of negotiations, although it is necessary to be cautious in raising expectations.
- The Invisible Hand (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- The upcoming (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Syrian Chemical Weapons Dear: What Follows? (rinf.com)
- ‘Iran wants unconditional Geneva invite’ (rinf.com)
- Syria govt ‘ready to go to Geneva for dialogue, not to hand over power to anyone’ – Syrian FM (rt.com)
- UN urges SNC to agree on ‘united committee’ for Geneva 2 (worldbulletin.net)
- Syrian opposition should observe UN resolution: Lavrov – Tehran Times (tehrantimes.com)
- US Non Recognition of the Syrian Interim Government… (yallasouriya.wordpress.com)