The new cabinet of lebanon

January 3, 2014

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“With their mistake, I buy mistakes, from their disheartening words, I suffer;
Blood spurts out of my wound, how can I dry the water?” The Boat, Nimā Yushij , نیما یوشیج

In an objective analysis related to the achievements of the Ahmadinejad presidency,
we can easily realize that poverty raised in Iran as much as the national GNP dropped
drastically.
Radicalism in Iran represented by the government of the Revolution Guards and the
populist Ahmadinejad can be referred to as an immense waste.
Looking also to the political ramifications of the late Iranian projection of power,
we can heartedly be touched by the huge waste, when we look at major errors committed by
the Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki. And by the Syrian Bashar Assad who miserably failed to advance
his nation into the road of modernity.
The crossroad of all this mismanagement is definitely best represented in the Lebanese Hezbollah
which altered the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 and the Israeli failure in 2006, into a waste of the gains,
by pointing the rifle north and extending the lines of supply from 80 km to 500 km.
Lebanon is threatened to become a hell of fire and theater of internal strife.
It is well known that accountability can’t be applied extensively in the Middle East,
because of arrogance and corruption, but can at least merit be visible and emerge?
Meritocracy is one of the guidelines and principles that must set the formation boundaries
of the new Lebanese cabinet. Two personalities are to be mentioned and these are Minister
Marwan Charbel and General Abbas Ibrahim of the General Security.
Whenever meritocracy is one guideline of the new cabinet, then the rest can be a focus
on the short duration, the number of ministers and the possible achievements.
It is known that the new cabinet will be in place until the election of the new president.
However, both issues are not intertwined formally, in the sense that a grand bargain will pave
the way for the cabinet.
Definitely not, and this is why the talk about a cabinet made out from the national dialogue committee
is not reasonable nor possible.
Here the chances of President Amin Gemayel, General Aoun, Mr Sleiman Franjieh and
Dr Geagea to be elected are very finite and slim if not impossible. Let them rest their
divisive efforts and cooperate for once.
So the equation in the new cabinet is the number of ministers and the more we have, the complexity
will be higher, therefore the perfect number is ten.
Considering 2 shiite , 2 sunni, and one druze, 2 maronite, one catholic, one orthodox and one Armenian.
The second equation is that the new cabinet will require paving the way for a second TAEF,
to adjust the harmony of the national cohesion and to impede any destruction of the Lebanese
coexistence.This is not because Taef 1 is wrong, but because we will insert few clauses to make it
acceptable by everyone.
As we know there are 4 major issues upcoming, the Geneva 2, the nuclear file of Iran,
the Israeli Palestinian talks, and the tribunal for Lebanon.
The proposal for the new cabinet of Lebanon can consist of two options,
one I already wrote about on this blog some time ago, made out of 10 ministers and formed
mainly by entrepreneurs, and the second who is more consequential is as follows:
Mr Tammam Salam PM ( economy, information, justice), Mr Adnan Kassar ( Finance minister, Culture),
General Ibrahim ( sanity, labour, foreign affairs, agriculture), General Charbel (Interior),
Mr Hussein Husseini (relations with the parliament, environment) ,
Mr Samir Moukbel ( deputy pm, defense, justice, communication ),
Mr Nazim Khoury ( tourism , public works), Mr Wael Abou Faour
( social affairs, education, sports), Mr Abraham Dedeyan ( Industry),
Mr Joe Takla ( energy, displaced).

This combination is very balanced and the second step will be to submit to the parliament the
program, and here I recommend that, to the declaration of Baabda a phrase shall be added.
Where the sanctuary of the state will be defended to consolidate coexistence and amalgam all the
Lebanese strata by any form, even through unconventional popular methods based on resistance
where the state reputes necessary.
This will lead us to the vote and chances are very strong that it will be voted, especially
if we consider that there is a precedent where the socialist party gave freedom to vote
during Mr Kamal Jumblat positioning in the early seventies.
With the calculated approach of the new cabinet ( articles debating the constitutional framework of
the formation abound, yet thinkers and writers fail to give the appropriate solution, for the emergency
Lebanon is witnessing) all players will be oriented to the new president election including the
Iranian excellent mediator Rouhani.
There are only two names with chances to be elected Lebanese president and these are
Mr Joseph Tarabey and General Jean Kahwaji.
My preference goes to Tarabey because Lebanon will need to go on Taef 2 (rotation between Pm and speaker and reinforcement for the president powers by calling on early general elections, plus the introduction of the referenda institution).
Taef 2 will have excellent effects on relations between Iran and KSA and it will mean the true
transfer of all files from the IRGC to the administration of president Rouhani.

“Nadda was by the water spring, and I asked her why she was not around, she looked at me with
those eyes, and she wanted to talk to me but she did not want to, o’Naddaa”
O Naddaa Lebanese song, by Sabah, lyrics Mansour Rahbani , Music Assi Rahbani

Thank You,

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b2b

December 26, 2013

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy (Photo credit: epSos.de)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Dated 2 January 2014

Alfred Thayer Mahan was a United States Navy flag officer, geostrategist, and historian, who has been called “the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century.” His concept of “sea power” was based on the idea that countries with greater naval power will have greater worldwide impact” Wikipedia

In navigating the Chinese civilization from its early beginning to the latest developments, one can only express an immense interest in the richness of the process and the ramifications of this, into world affairs through centuries.

Since the early Heaven’s Mandate to the Warren States and up to the Popular Republic, progress never stopped in debating ideas and policies.  Confucius, Zhuanghzi ,  Laozi, Han Fei and other prominent thinkers  or politicians as Chairman Mao, Zhou en Lai, Deng Xiaoping, up to President Xi nowadays, the miracle  continues.

Humanity established in the Chinese hinterland with a desire to develop a decent life, and it grew its sustaining aspects from agriculture to satellite navigational systems.

The Chinese human evolution curve determined a US policy called “Pivot to Asia” where assets are placed to monitor and or counter recent events represented in the Chinese maritime expansion.

In truth Chinese exports from the eastern coast as much as the trip of gold from west to east are all necessary to the widening of the trade platform on global basis, hence there is no surprise in the Chinese desire to protect its own sea lanes by a vanguard  fleet of vessels and submarines.

I imagine one day the Chinese military fleet paying port calls to Alexandria and to Rio de Janeiro, alike of a Chinese exchange of knowhow with the Iranian Stock Market exchange which is souring since June 2013.

The connection in Chinese and Iranian affairs is very positive and consequential for the human development; therefore rapprochement between Eurasian powers and its effects on western global institutional model should be thoughtfully updated.

Perhaps Sea entrepreneurs will plan soon a Luxurious cruise from Saadiyat Island to Kish to Beirut, Bali and to Shanghai docking in front of the Peace Hotel.

Masters of thought are keen to consider that present difficulties in the Chinese and Iranian economy, should be transformed into global opportunities rather than a local exploitation of regional crisis, to cement the national edifice of governors incapable to propose the right solutions.

Internal duality is in the essence of the Oriental magnitude and philosophy: is it predominance or openness the thread leading to acceptance and peace?

Alexander the Great, as per novels, ended in the Oriental Paradise of Latte and Honey, a great warrior appeased in the kingdom of sweetness.  A course if reversed where eastern flow of advancement will proceed to western Hemisphere will necessarily at some point accuse either fatigue or will be diluted with locals.

The latest policies announced in the Chinese polity and the recent radical changes in the Iranian national panorama, do tell us that security and consumption are intertwined.

Supporting china and Iran to secure peacefully their own countries and trace their own roles on the world platform is not an easy task, yet not an impossible one even.

This will necessitate a proactive western flexibility that extends beyond conservative thinking and usual books.

Security for all includes Israel and the Palestinian nation also, therefore the track is solid that a reinforcement of military assets when used with purpose, will bring about intelligent compromises, or else it will wreak havoc.

The oriental duality between the Quds Force and Rouhani’s vision is much similar in its visibility, to the diversity between Confucius and Chairman Mao.  The nuclear file handling breaking through a bomb? and the encroachment in the seas and the skies leading to hegemony or to acceptance?

Yielding results in China and Iran, consists for both, in finding their internal unified way to deliver to the world a method and a synchrony.

We know that Russia secured an oil exploration deal with the Syrian State represented by a murderer who lacks legitimacy to represent his people in a new mandate; and this is an example for Lebanon to follow suit by securing a deal for oil offshore.

In Lebanon the Taef accord had different brokers, the two most gravitational were Syria and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but now that Syria is under strife, it is obvious that the Lebanese national accord should be revised.

Phoenicians sailed north, south and west, as much as Romans reached England, eventually both succumbed to History.

The Lebanese theater is so complex, and my proposal in the national accord is to have a rotation in the roles of PM and speaker while enhancing the powers of the president by adding  the option of calling for general elections whenever the political climate doesn’t allow an exit to political parties. The constitution should be revised and the referenda need to take place on defining matters. Defending the social tissue and coexistence will be the primary mission of the Lebanese constitutional legality.

Maybe the historic reason behind the conservation of the Persian and Chinese duality is because they both didn’t overstretch in becoming maritime powers.

The challenge for China and Iran is to sail in history in the modern era, transforming the duality into a creative diversity. A dilemma they share with the Lebanese in need for a neutral government to revise the constitution and with Israel incapable to hand a nation to the Palestinians.

Security is a requirement for all, from Beirut to Beijing, ( b2b).

“ The need to record information from large business transactions while traveling the seas pushed Phoenicians to abandon the complicated Sumerian cuneiform system and develop their own set of characters……… Although these wealthy traders dominated the seas, they were not as fortunate on land. For nearly half a century, ancient Phoenicia was occupied by foreign powers.”  http://www.netplaces.com/middle-east-guide/the-cradle-of-civilization/the-phoenicians.htm

Thank You,


Pax Persiana

December 11, 2013

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and good Day,

This is an open letter to President Hassan Rouhani of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“As for those who own, indeed, that it was made by God, and yet ascribe to it not a temporal but only a creational beginning …” De Civitate Dei contra Paganos, Augustine of Hippo ( ref. wikipedia)

Mr. President,

It is a source of comfort to note that in a relatively short period of time, your efforts and vision managed to bring a positive result, by agreeing on a first compromise with the P5+1; with the aim to secure and ensure sane governance, for the geopolitical area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

The purpose of my letter is to be transparent, in supporting a road map to achieve the rest of the necessary steps, which will project an evolution of open ended regional crisis to an era of a possible Pax Persiana.

As you might agree, moving forward is pivotal to stir events into the right direction of economic growth and regional security.

This task is clearly epic and requires much discipline, patience and openness, qualities that are in the core of the Persian soul.

The basics of advancement should be formed on the edifice of modernity and reform, where a general concept of security for all must prevail.

While I understand that you will be absorbed by national policies oriented to restore hope and spur opportunities in a very young Iranian population, I do care that you succeed in resolving the outstanding with the UAE in the three islands issue and you develop a regional energy/security  strategy that will take into consideration local aspects such as the Kurdish Autonomy in the recent pipeline to Turkey.

Local aspects abound in the Middle East and your efforts can stop or end prematurely if not in cognizance with each and every local reality.

The truth Mr. President is that your capability to broker the recent deal in Geneva elevates your nation/state to the level of a peace maker rather than a regional spoiler.

This is unprecedented per se’.

All the tactics elaborated so far in generating an Iranian position in the world stage, should be immediately updated and composed around a scheme of acceptance and prosperity.

The fist unclenched, is what we look for, in Lebanon at first.

You are well into politics and the game of the nations to realize that there is a great need to start somewhere, in order to transform the insufficient interim deal into a comprehensive agreement.

The time frame is short, as there are almost six months that can be renewed, yet without a further consolidation, the achievements of Geneva, might well be reduced to only ink.

While the Syrian theater will see the winter coming, as the imminent opening of the highway to the coast that will enable the transportation of CW on board of the Ship furnace, there is little else to mention whenever we agree that Geneva 2 must free all prisoners, open humanitarian corridors, approve aid to refugees and agree on a cease fire in waiting for political designs to be discussed for Geneva 3.

It is already evident that the foreign policy of the IR of Iran is much dynamic, however without a focus on the Lebanese theater and a satisfying solution to the present standstill, there can’t be a true Iranian evolution.

What is required is your cooperation, to help on a new neutral cabinet in Lebanon made out of professionals and independents that will ensure the presidential elections to take place on time, and address urgent social needs. Institutional matters such as a modern electoral law and general elections will be handled on a later stage.

Pax Persiana can become reality from vision; it only needs to start making peace from Beirut.

“Indeed, Allah is forgiving and Merciful… Then deliver him to his place of safety….So as long as they are upright toward you, be upright toward them” Surah At-Tawbah (Arabic: سورة التوبة, Sūratu at-Tawbah, Sura 9 .

Thank you,


Hallelujah

November 24, 2013

Hallelujah (Leonard Cohen song)

Hallelujah (Leonard Cohen song) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

” Receptive: Ready or
willing to receive favorably: receptive to their proposals

I will start by dedicating the song of Bon Jovi, ( Hallelujah ) to all humanity for the announced agreement between the P5 plus 1 and Iran.

In truth while apparently on the surface it seems that Mr. Khamenei had it both ways with presidents Ahmadinejad and Rouhani , the west might seem that it had it neither way.

In this opening of complex negotiations, Iran scored one and the west scored none. It is sufficient to observe the tape of secretary Kerry to underline a contradiction. Everyone will defend the stance to be a win-win and in fact it is, whenever the comprehensive agreement will be reached by the end of February.

From a realistic view, Iran maintains the centrifuges spinning in Natanz and Fordow, while it obtained de facto ease on sanctions.

The west obtains a cap on Arak and on the further development of 20 percent enriched Uranium with no mention on the hidden existing stockpiles and the roll forward of low enriched Uranium.

Again the duty of common sense is to be receptive and cooperative although cautious.

Much will remain to be seen and a lot will require much support and watch.

In Arabic they say “Mish awalti , a5irti” , not the beginning but the end .

What is interesting is the evolution of the US strategic approach, from willing to struck a deal and run, as per captain Jack Sparrow teachings in the pirates , a fiction leading nowhere; to sticking around and willing firmly to define the whole framework in a responsible attitude, much like Fischer the chess master .

From tomorrow a lot of work will need to be done and peace lovers will help, including Israel and Lebanon, two Canaanite nations with desire to express guidance to peace.

“Cautious: Tentative or restrained; guarded: felt a cautious optimism that the offer would be
accepted”

Thank you,

 


OIL @ 250 or the only option today?

November 22, 2013

United States

United States (Photo credit: Moyan_Brenn)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

“The experience of “beauty” often involves an interpretation of some entity as being in balance and harmony with nature, which may lead to feelings of attraction and emotional well-being. Because this can be a subjective experience, it is often said that “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Wikipedia

It is a source of comfort that the negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, will set a comprehensive agreement as a new objective.

The interim deal concept is wrong and it was generating much instability, whatever its nature could be.

This instability was likely leading to a unilateral Israeli decision, that would have as side effects a direct confrontation between Iran, Iraq and KSA, sending Oil prices to 250 $.

In fact the interim deal brokered by Russia, would disrupt the US strategy in the ME applied for decades, sending Oil prices to skyrocket and disrupting supplies as per Iranian/Gulf Monarchies clashes.

I am happy though that we saved the USA twice, the first time by trading the attack on Syria with the CW dismantlement keeping in place the objectives of building on Geneva 1, with a transitional government in Syria without Assad. And the second time by trading the interim deal with a strategic comprehensive agreement to be discussed, yet as per the vision already enunciated on the pages of this same blog.

In my view, considering the shrinking population and working force in Russia, and adding the OIL and Gas exports contribution to the GNP, we can easily understand how an interim agreement will be in the best interest of Russia mainly, more than any commercial deal thought by western corporations.

Above all the US administration should also consider that an interim deal would have thrown Gulf Monarchies and Israel alike, in the hands of China which is a great power, suffering a major economic setback from high Oil prices.

The interim deal could blow the US policy of an Asian/Pacific pivot before it takes the required contour, by opening a massive Chinese network in the Mediterranean. The US would have lost its queen in the first openings of the Chess pacific pivot.

From above we can easily realize that while Russia and China will benefit from the interim deal, in different manners, the US would need to deploy costly assets to adjust for a Status- Quo ante, a Dietro – front futile and unnecessary in all cases.

So here comes the Global/US interest in pursuing a comprehensive agreement with Iran, within 3 months, and failure to do this will portray the US in a plan B consisting of further tightening of harsh sanctions.

The only option today is to amplify the diplomatic reach for 3 months until end of February, in a strong desire to achieve a comprehensive agreement.

The beauty of life .

Life is a characteristic that distinguishes objects that have signaling and self-sustaining processes from those that do not, either because such functions have ceased (death), or else because they lack such functions and are classified as inanimate. “ Wikipedia

Thank You,

.

 


Hope and Belief

November 18, 2013

English: Israel & Iran Flages

English: Israel & Iran Flages (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

“Hope is the state which promotes the desire of positive outcomes related to events and circumstances in one’s life or in the world at large” Wikipedia

 

It is a fact that both the US and Iran are going through dire economic woes, obliging both countries to search, for the best suitable bilateral deal, that will project each nation in its designed strategic approach, while  pursuing their own national interests.

 

The financial easing in the US since Chairman Greenspan, was perhaps genuinely seeking to spur growth, yet the grave effects of the housing bubble produced an unprecedented and still enduring crisis.

 

Whenever we add to this bubble, the mismanagement of the Iraq post-intervention and the disastrous effects of the US corporate outsourcing, here we are in the actual job crisis showing no sign of recovery.

 

At this stage and after huge easing, what the FED needs to do is to taper in a gradual and predictable pattern, simply because the cure is not anymore through financial remedy, rather it is by a wide reform of the system, and a better distribution of the richness.

 

What is on demand, is a new generation of small and middle enterprises, run by young entrepreneurs, that have both hope and belief, and that they can change and reform an American system that is standing still.

 

Regulations, relaxations and taxation are the key to move forward, and this can be done only when young representatives will gain the trust of the people.

 

In Iran, the nuclear research is considered to be a pillar of the national security, imposed by the aftermath of the Iraq/Iran war, hence immense resources are spent on this project. The nuclear project is leading, to economic disarray, to a chaotic power projection and to an isolation of major proportions.

 

From a strategic and diplomatic stand point, there might be commonality between the US/Iran today and the US/China during the Nixon presidency, however the imperfect analogy is much imperfect.

 

China had a bordering foe in the USSR and it had a nuclear status. By contrast, Iran yesteryear’s foe (Iraq) dissolved and it is still working incessantly, to enter with minimum cost the nuclear club.

 

The analogy is more evident, in the desire of both Iran and Israel to be secure, and this mortal insecurity is leading the ME into an apocalyptic scenario.

 

Israel from one side, willing to disintegrate the crescent and Iran from another, willing to impose a Persian strategic concept, through a Shiite revisited dogma.

 

The US adds fuel, by its own interpretation of the national interest, where pivoting to Asia/Pacific in tandem with disengaging from the ME, represents the policy of the current administration.

 

A US policy thought to lower costs and to advance growth and jobs at home, even if results are tardy to be manifested and achieved.

 

In view of the disorder in the crescent, and the geopolitical importance of the Caspian, the US shift to the Pacific will alter significantly the global equilibrium for a decade or so.

 

The US is caught between a rock and a hard place; from one side being very close to oil sufficiency doesn’t strengthen it on the short run. Apparently the US international maneuver by exiting the ME will inevitably enforce other powers, e.g. China, Russia or France. And from another side, it will endanger the security needs of its regional friends and allies mainly Egypt, Gulf Monarchies, Pakistan, Israel and Lebanon.

 

While seeking to play a balancing role, in truth the US is failing to produce a stable model in a delicate area. The US is today visibly shifting towards seeking any deal to exit the ME.

 

We know that there is a perfect deal, a practical deal and a foul’s deal. France is working on a 4 points deal which is very effective, to be introduced on November 20th in Geneva.

 

Obviously this scenario of a US deal at any cost with Iran to exit the ME, will mean the rise of the rest on the middle run, be these Russia, China, Iran, Israel, France or the trio Pakistan/Egypt/KSA.

 

It is unclear in this crucial phase how things will develop, yet the hope is that the US withdrawal will not cause the same chaos that was witnessed in Vietnam years ago, or in Iraq and in Afghanistan recently.

 

A tragedy of unknown proportions is in the making, where refugees and disorder will embark in the Levant from Sana’a to Tashkent.

 

Ramifications of instability will touch presumably an immense geographic arc. The Russians will exploit the Mediterranean, the Iranians will vigil on Hormuz, the Chinese will revive the Silk Road; and the Israelis will try to create a stable network to replace their constant game of disintegration.

 

The Syrian theater will continue to be a platform of confrontation until we reach Geneva 7 or 9 perhaps. The US will develop ties to the Pacific while maintaining traditional ones with the Atlantic.

 

Therefore the US “wings” grand strategy (Atlantic /pacific) will eclipse the global superpower status De-Facto.

 

From above we can assume in 2014 some emerging possible definitions:
US a wings power, Russia a Mediterranean broker, Iran a Hormuz gendarme, Israel a regional unilateral spoiler, France an outsourced power for the Iranian nuclear file, China a market economy with 2 kids, India an incubator of web innovations, Japan a recovering economy, Germany a power seeking an international positioning and KSA an oil producer searching for a consequential evolution.

 

The moving global panorama will alter the game of the nations and will reshuffle the cards in hand of many players.

 

Lebanon will need to strengthen its internal edifice to face the geopolitical earthquakes by forming a cabinet, by approving an electoral law, by electing a new president and a new parliament, by reforming the state, by boosting the army’s capability and finally by recovering the economy.

 

The point is that unless the US will couple to its wings policy a corpus that represents global responsibility, it will never fly. In fact old concepts of national interest are misplaced, a fashion of obsolete schools of thought, wings without a corpus are only wings and will not express economic recovery, leave alone global governance.

 

How will the US decipher its own path to recover and guide responsibly? This will be a major hurdle in international affairs.

 

Outsourcing was a historic option since the days of King Hiram of Tyre.

 

Hope and belief are posed in a young generation of US entrepreneurs who will gain the favor of the US public and introduce long-awaited reforms and farsighted strategy.

 

“Belief is the psychological state in which an individual holds a conjecture or premise to be true” Wikipedia

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


The Deal – Vision

November 11, 2013

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva ...

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) Français : Armoiries du canton de Genève (Suisse) Deutsch: Wappen des Kantons Genf (Schweiz) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I lost the love of heaven above, I spurned the lust of earth below, ………. In every language upon earth, on every shore, o’er every sea, …. and kept my spirit with the free.” A Vision by John Clare

It is a source of comfort to learn that the desire to reach an agreement between the contenders in Geneva will continue in next rounds of talks. As we know these talks date since many years, with ups and downs and it is high time now, to express a vision with principles and guidelines under which umbrella the framework of the phased agreements will be reached.

The vision is very simple, where it stands for acceptance, solidarity and respect. Each nation in the Middle East will commit to accept and recognize fully the other nations, including Israel, Palestine and Iran. Each nation will commit to express a state policy based on solidarity and sharing where a system of regional security will be emerging and finally each nation will respect the peaceful desire of growth within an open borders strategy of ideas and goods free of WMD threats.

Aligning negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran will enable all players to express a phased route projecting the populations of the entire area into an era of peace.

I envisage three phases stretching on a time frame of 3 years.

The first phase, will define nuclear interim agreement one in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 2 for the Syrian Crisis, it will resolve the Lebanese standoff and the Iraqi instability.

The second phase, will define nuclear interim agreement two in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 3 for the Syrian Crisis, and it will define the final status in the Israeli / Palestinian Conflict.

The third and final phase, will define the nuclear agreement in Geneva, it will convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and it will finalize talks for regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.

In the first phase, the nuclear interim agreement ONE in Geneva to be implemented by Dec 25 can consist of the immediate verifiable shutdown of Iran’s Arak heavy-water reactor in exchange for the release of 25 billion USD of Iranian accounts. On a separate track Geneva 2 will be called to convene by January 20 where humanitarian corridors, release of prisoners and a cessation of hostilities will be announced, the Syrian opposition will be represented by the new prime minister and a large and inclusive delegation. On another separate track a Lebanese neutral cabinet composed by 10 independents will be formed and will supervise the new electoral law, and the presidential election of Mr. Jean Kahwaji to proceed with the path of giving the Lebanese army the necessary time to be in charge of the cedar nation. Lebanese general elections will take place in September 2014. On another track an Iraqi sharing system of governance will be defined in a national conference Baghdad 1 where participation in the decision making will be open to all communities.

In the second phase, the nuclear interim agreement TWO in Geneva, will consist of the unilateral declaration by the Iranian nuclear agency that a cap of 80 KG will be applied on the quantity of 20 % enriched Uranium held on Iranian territory at any given time, measures will be put in place by the IAEA to verify by March 20. International Powers will release all held Iranian Bank accounts and ease sanctions on precious metals. On a separate track Geneva 3 will be called to convene within April 20 and a political transition, expressed by a national cabinet will be declared where there will be no space for the Assad clan. The final status of talks to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian conflict will take shape by August 2014 and a map with temporary borders will be accepted, the viable and sovereign nation of Palestine will be born. Jerusalem will have an international status under common and rotating administration. The state of Israel will have all kind of assurances that the citizens of Israel and the Jewry worldwide will be in amenity in a homeland.

In the third and final phase, the nuclear agreement in Geneva finalized by September 30, will consist of the Iranian Petroleum Agency announcing its desire to coordinate a plan of investment for gas exploitation in tandem with an international private consortium.  International powers will release all sanctions and will support the full membership of Iran in the WTO. On a separate track Iran and the US will be the sponsors to convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and this will be coupled by talks on enhancing regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.  The main purpose will be to guarantee the security of Israel, the support of growth in Palestine, the diplomatic projection of Iran and its acquisition of a middle power status. Gulf Countries will act as facilitators and true believers in peace.

    “ I have not walked on common ground, Nor drunk of earthly streams; ……. Life is a race fore-run; Look in his face a little while, and life and death are one.” Vision by Marjorie Pickthall

     Thank You,