Greetings and Good day,
It is a fact that we are living in an era of fast velocity characterizing the events worldwide.
One has only the embarrassment if to start from East, where dwindling in once rampant economies is a new pattern, expected to endure for a while; even if Japanese and Chinese monetary easing will keep the pace. But military tensions and maritime blur lines will add intensity to the Asian drama unfolding.
Or to start west where the Oil production in the US is expected to exceed 10 million barrels per day by 2016, a glaring record, which is already strengthening the US economy and adding tools to the imperious wild cards.
Questions abound on when the Federal Reserve will increase the interest rates, even if it is too soon to tell without clear cut joint data on housing, employment and inflation.
Questions also entail the ramifications of the US aerial defense of the Kurdish enclave, on how these will exert control on the revolving boundaries in the SYR/AQ Theater, and/ or how these will support the policy of multiple joint plans of action (JPOA) with Iran entailing differing sectors , education, energy, sport, etc,,.
Sharp Observers nurture concrete signals in the upcoming meeting of NATO in September that an opening will be made to widen the cooperation with China and consequently the G7 will evolve by adopting India and China to become a G9.
Undoubtedly there is much strain in international relations due to a lot of internal instability in many countries, running from Thailand, Pakistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Nigeria, Bahrain, etc…
We know that next week a meeting will take place in Minsk where both Russian and Ukrainian presidents will meet to assess possible solutions to the conflict in Donbas regions, and we know also that the Iranian parliament impeached yesterday the minister of Science in a continuous struggle for power opposing two segments of the Islamic Republic both oppressing the mainstream opposition.
Can a commander in chief become a viewer in chief of a sit in comedy, where the bold was successfully designed prime minister in Iraq, the bad is still controlling a coastal territory in Syria and the beautiful is yet to be elected president in Lebanon ?
So far the US strategy yielded too little in terms of nation building in mentioned theaters, and we expect that the Gaza wildfire will prolong the agony much farther than the nuclear talks in Vienna, where the US is hoping to entice Iran to a moderate stance and a cooperative role in the new Middle East where rampage is dominant through a demagogy of fear preceding the Islamic state advance or retreat as per field requirements.
It is evident that the initiative on regional level is hold by opposed armed gangs derailing the modern state concept be this due to the assertive stance of the armed groups or the dispersion of polities in gathering significant effort in governance.
A strong case is made in Lebanon where the state lacks behind extraction of water from the Mediterranean, finding a balance for the institutions and empowering opportunities for exports to strengthen the economy. This lagging paves the way for commendable initiatives to elect the president by the people to emerge tactically, while the entire national edifice is gloomy and cloudy. How the perspective will proceed is yet to be deciphered, however the latest positions expressed by HIS Corruption the speaker and other components of the hijackers of the republic indicate a platform and a readiness to find the light out of the presidential tunnel and extricate the cedar land from its impasse.
In truth some optimism can be on the horizon, where the Iranian calculation and pragmatism will necessarily come to terms by designating a solution. How will the Iranians ponder their steps and how they will endorse a new president is being presently considered.
In support to the geopolitical mosaic, rational thinking induce us to widen the perspective into 3 personalities, ( which Lebanese Hezbollah involved in a military campaign beyond its own borders , financed by Iran ), will caress as a projection to its own interests.
These 3 personalities will fit into the following priority, the perfect candidate who is facing insurmountable resistance is Michel Aoun ( Lebanese Maliki ), the second choice who was jeopardized by the latest Arsal incursion is the army commander (http://www.lebanonfiles.com/news/760858), and ultimately the third choice represents the calculated risk.
The calculated risk for the Iranians in Lebanon is to select a profile that will secure their interests to an acceptable minimum and this is a figure advancing the program of social, defense, constitutional and economic reforms.
Within the Iranian prism of modern strategy, the posture is to aliment the regime, increase its own defenses and keep its tentacles glowing from Tehran to Maroon El Ras, (where Gaza is out of this formula for the Israeli continuous crackdown on HAMAS).
Setting the priorities, the Iranians know very well that they need to establish an inclusive government in Iraq to tutor their own interests, to facilitate a solution in Lebanon based on secular coexistence and ultimately hold their bastion in Syria for the longest time possible, with the dim hope, that the International environment changes.
While Mr. Abbadi is working in Baghdad on his new unity cabinet, it is widely realistic to forecast the next political move of Qassem Suleimani to be in Beirut, where the window of opportunity is open until Mid November to elect the president and call on the general elections.
Between all the Lebanese candidates, the candid choice inevitably directs the pendulum towards Mrs. Nadine Moussa who is the brightest candidate so far, and the most unifying figure in the Lebanese conundrum and the failed republic of thieves, pirates and Mafiosi.
Lebanese politicians should follow the example of the pioneering Mr. Walid Jumblat who is dedicating more time to literature (LUCKY OSCAR was a nice article ) and find alternative occupation or else simply retire.
Being Qassem Suleimani an accurate commander and a political astute figure much about an Iranian version of a modern Machiavelli, he will understand that the safest bet is to cool down the nuclear file for some years ( the equation of freezing nuclear activity , unfreezing assets and relaxing sanctions, coupled to developing different JPOA ), to tacit the Iraqi flare through inclusiveness and play with grandeur in Lebanon, being the major threat now the IS advance to Aleppo and/or to Baghdad.
Ultimately to alter the position of being stretched too thin, Suleimani will find his way to compromise, where the best result he will pursue will be to keep the Syrian status-quo in exchange for slow achievements in Iraq and an illuminate mandate for growth in Lebanon, from where his proxy Hezbollah can revert to a local actor.
Failure to grasp this window will have brutal consequences on the entire area and we can’t exclude security threats to rise in Lebanon exponentially.
Where Suleimani will play safe, the solution has a Lebanese name, Mrs Nadine Moussa.