Greetings and Good Day,
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to Victory; Tactics without Strategy is the noise before defeat “Sun Tzu
It is no coincidence that the Iraqi Parliament will convene from July 1st to start the formation of a new government, and the nuclear talk’s new round is rescheduled for July 2nd.
Starting from the nuclear needs of Iran Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai wrote an article recently http://thebulletin.org/meeting-irans-nuclear-fuel-supply-needs7224 , which is very interesting and leads us directly to the Iranian foreign policy and strategic set.
We know that there are presently 3 countries in waiting for governance and solutions, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Following the Iraqi elections a winner emerged in the person of an ineffective Prime Minister Mr. Maliki, and we are willing to evaluate the steps he will take when the parliament will kick start the legislative mandate and will require as per constitution to form a cabinet within a month.
Meanwhile a new capital is in the making Mosul, and unprecedented change in boundaries since a centennial is being implemented. Kurd leaders are willing to endorse the idea of a new Iraq, and world powers are unable to detect where the actual dynamics will lead.
In Syria the US/Russian/International cooperation led to end the threat of CW, yet the tragedy of the re-election of Assad on the western part of the country is another indicator of the Iranian stubborn attitude to exert projection of power, acting as a regional spoiler without the option of stability capability. Feeding Assad is a very useful strategy to drain the resources of Iran and its proxies.
In Lebanon there is in place a vacuum and a clear failure of Iran’s proxies to get their pawn elected as president, Michel Aoun.
“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results “Winston Churchill
Adding to the regional complexity, the nuclear difficulties, the sanctions, and the internal opposition, I can see the regime in Tehran much in need of a fresh air.
It is clear that the supreme leader and other revolution agencies are pulling the strings in Tehran, yet these guys are losing international ground.
The US should not only understand Iran’s concerns for nuclear fuel, but it also needs to put in place the reflection of the Iranian establishment’s failed regional model on the nuclear negotiations.
Sticking to realism, there is an opportunity to draft an upgrade to the joint plan of action where a very tiny ease on cash sanctions can be enlarged, in exchange for trust building measures. The six months time frame until January 2015 will be precious for both parties to reposition and gather momentum for further cooperation.
Ironically Qassem Suleimani is the Iranian point man for the Iranian model to be piloted, and paradoxically he is the same point man on who the US needs to invest to achieve the long term strategic vision of pipelines to replace missiles.
Definitely with the hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran will need to set priorities , and I presume that whenever Qassem will start somewhere in exerting his leadership, a compromise needs to be found in Lebanon by the election of a reformist female president (Nadine Moussa), not a pawn for Tehran.
Pipelines are the route for an enormous shift in International relations and the best opportunity for the state of Israel to generate an environment of cooperation and just peace with all its neighbors.
That said, a note of merit should be addressed to Vladimir Putin who publicly asked the DUMA to take out the option of military engagement in Ukraine.
Bravo Vladimir, he starts listening to the markets, and he needs to go a mile further instead of proceeding with his special war, he needs to help on Inter-Ukrainian dialogue, with the purpose to put in place in the two industrial separatist regions a compromise similar to TRENTINO – ALTO ADIGE in ITALY, an autonomous region with German spoken language having full rights. Afterwards he needs to create on the opposite side of the Russian border, a free trade Russian zone, with a revolving door / open boundaries mechanism similar to the one between France and Italy; this will enhance exchange and set the basics for a future partnership with Europe.
Furthermore having signed the gas agreement with China and after establishing a free zone between Ukraine/Russia, Vladimir can implement the strategy to diversify and re-position Russia into a new model (not only energy), hence a favorable legislative and investment environment will be in place to promote, start-ups for financial products, specialized industrial items for new sectors (aerospace, 3d, commercial drones, etc), charter wellness tourism etc.
Ultimately after the cooperation success US/Russia/Other powers in the Syrian CW, a new page must be opened based on effective cooperation, PUTIN needs to realize that Crimea chapter is over and the world needs to move forward. This scenario is much better than the special war to continue.
“Travel becomes a strategy for accumulating Photographs” Susan Sontag