Greetings and Good Day,
“The correct assessment of unprecedented ME popular demands and the forecast of their evolution will immensely affect the geopolitics of the world in the coming decade”
It is of wide acceptance to consider sense making as a major tool for policy makers, leading to links in the sequence of events and contributing effectively in the making of history.
Formulating action necessitates an accurate set of analysis that will be translated into a coordinated and preferably liberal line of action.
Reading the Sudan post referendum, the shield on Lebanon from regional unrests, the Tunisian and Egyptian changes, the Yemeni expected resignation of Saleh, or Omani protests, Jordanian nuisance, Bahraini crackdown, Moroccan requests, Iranian desire for freedom, as much as Saudi or Chinese requirements for structural reforms, the UNSCR 1973 on Libya, the reprisal of missile launching and terrorist activity in Gaza,the Daraa’ led formula, and to end the spinning issue of Cote D’Ivoire and/or other African nations do recommend an approach based on case by case basis.
While the European meeting will have spinning and perhaps unresolved monetary issues, the US recovery confirms its pace amid dissuaded fear from negative perspectives generated by the geological earthquake that caused the meltdown in Japan.
Let me start with the forecasts. Although critics assume changes in Tunisia and Egypt are considered a make up where expendable leaders already left the scene, to keep in place elites playing in the hands of capitalism and vested interests. The change by itself will unavoidably open a new page leading to advancement in terms of information flow, openness, universal rights and social consensus mechanisms. It remains to be verified if the democratic reforms in Egypt and Tunisia will be of liberal nature or else.
In Yemen the inevitable outcome is the ousting or resignation of President Saleh, a fate that will be shared eventually by Libya’s Colonel Ghaddafi where both ex-leaders together to their entourage will seek exile or refuge in Asian nations, perhaps Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malesia or Bhutan. The new leadership although imperfect in both Yemen and Libya will ensure unity of their nations and seek to establish modern institutions dealing with major issues of the citizenry. One would comment that this is pretty vague as an assigned mission, even if much better as a perspective than the ongoing civil strife.
Omani, Moroccan and Jordanian issues are contained to a certain extent and the sage approach of the sovereigns will contribute to introduce swift reforms and transit to a constitutional monarchy tutoring the basic and fundamental rights of citizens and setting the core base for economic prosperity and national security.
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan will cross into a period of relative calm and stability as the rulers will proceed firmly in applying openings and defining the check and control within the components of each collectivity.
China will reach the righteous decision to allow an opposition to prosper and to express itself legally, and this will start inside the ruling party general committee, where a transparent vote will send a clear signal to the Chinese that there are two distinct views , both competing for the government and for the execution of policy in peaceful tools.
The multiple economic hubs US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Brazil, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Israel and Lebanon will proceed into their leading role determining global growth.
The US Modern Grand Strategy that already led the transition from mono-polar governance to multi-hub governance had its best moment in the UNSCR 1973 even though claims are sent by different American sectors that the intervention will have a great cost that will affect the budget retooling.
If it is true that America has a major debt and requires important restructuring and renovation, it is also true that it is not an island detached from the international scene. It is wise to accept a transition phase where perfecting the ballerina role will necessitate time from one side and further sacrifices from another. Controlling influence and playing down the power projection will be pivotal for the US administrations.
Only the consequential approach in foreign affairs, can secure the peaceful conduit for soft and eased international relations. Pillars will continue to be US full partnership with Russia, strategic cooperation with India, economic concert with China and empowerment of emerging powers.
The supreme leader and the IRG in Iran might benefit from oil prices increases, but they will have a major hurdle to express soft power or lead a network of regional mechanisms. Their failure to portray nothing else but fear and terror will bring them down sooner or later in a nice surprise that will restitute unity to the honorable Iranian peoples.
While waiting for the nice surprise from Iran, the world audience was informed about the events in the Syrian town Dara’a. Contrary to many analysts view, the status of immunity from pervasive and surging protests, conferred to the Syrian ruthless regime, was drowned by 15 youngsters.
The protest will not stop until effective changes will be implemented and this theater will be the most refreshing at all.
As for the Cote D’Ivoire I adhere to the open letter lately written by the International Crisis Group.
Governance in the coming decade, as known, will focus on widening international trade, strengthening education exchange, monitoring immigration fluxes, achieving global security and securing food provisions.
It will put in place a crisis management, ensure aid delivery, protect energy routes, decrease currency fluctuations, introduce finance regulations, suggest reforms and gradually reduce debt, while allowing growth, exports and pouring spending.
Considering the geopolitics in the area comprised between China and Portugal, in my view today there are two theaters that rivet the most intricate status ever.
These are Gaza and Lebanon.
It is understood that there are two red lines the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty and liberal democracy of Lebanon.
And to maintain these red lines, the multi-hub governance active through balancing nations Brazil, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway and Qatar will act in resonance to further contribute in the design of freedom expansion and peaceful world governance.
As we all know the slowdown of the Iranian nuclear activity was not met by a dynamic Israeli peace initiative, and this paved the way for rogue elements to disrupt the existing truce by actual mortar and missile attacks in Gaza, that reached their apogee in the Jerusalem bus attack a’ la rigueur.
Simultaneously the impending STL pre-trial announcement of the indictments within a couple of weeks or so, determined a preventive action by rogue politicians and armed Hizbullah to dismiss the Lebanese cabinet agreed upon in Doha and try to replace it by a monster cabinet that will bring on Lebanon the wrath of the international community.
Unfortunately the joint Iranian/Syrian maneuver to export both failing regimes, mischievous policies, and their own internal problems to the theaters of Gaza and Lebanon are the worst tricky episodes in this Middle Eastern revival or popular saga.
The regimes in Syria and Iran will push the region into war, to gain their own survival.
Israel must not fall in the trap and Lebanon should neither.
Low intensity fire exchange in Gaza can be accepted for a while, as much as international pressures must be exerted on both the Lebanese President and PM designate to form only a national unity cabinet and to press for dialogue and national consensus, maintaining in place the interests of peace, justice, stability and liberty.
Whenever low intensity in Gaza will deteriorate into armed conflict, and national unity cabinet in Lebanon will not be formed, the interests of the rogue regimes will be to push drastically for a regional war, to supersede internal pressures and to survive.
From above I ask all friends and allies of Lebanon and Israel to intervene immediately and avoid a major conflagration that will result into fire and human losses.
The actual strategic equilibrium was breached and it is already a pendulum waiting to explode.
Our duty is to control its outcome before it is too late.
Let me be clear, regional Peace can create the right environment for democracy, justice, stability and reforms in the Levant, by contrast war will bring havoc on both regimes in Syria, in Iran, and on Hizballah and Hamas.
A protracted military campaign in Gaza and any one sided government in Lebanon will trigger a wide regional “Casus Belli” and this means a major military invasion that will be expanding to Syria to entice the regime change and become multi-theater in case of Iranian meddling.
Peace is in danger and the status quo is already breached, therefore the most formidable armada and the best display of fire power, diplomacy and intelligence will display in favor of Lebanon, Israel and Palestine.
The alarm is raised to the maximum.
“ Despair will blind tyrants , but the wide plains of courage and young generations desire to conquer knowledge and love will prevail ”
- Israel Navy uncovers weaponry on-board cargo vessel (israelembassysa.wordpress.com)
- Orbi Parliament (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Open Letter to Najib Mikati (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Bahrain bans Lebanon travel, sectarian tension rises (reuters.com)
- Syrian forces open fire on protesters (nationalpost.com)
- Syrian forces kill 6 in mosque attack: residents – Reuters (news.google.com)
- Kidnapped cyclists in Lebanon are Estonian: consul (reuters.com)
- Pax Collettiva (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)