Two Thousand Sixteen

December 26, 2015

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“a child carrying flowers walks toward the new year , a conductor tattooing darkness listens to the shortest pause .
hurry a lion into the cage of music , hurry stone to masquerade as a recluse
moving in parallel nights .
who’s the visitor? when the days all , tip from nests and fly down roads
the book of failure grows boundless and deep .
each and every moment’s a shortcut , I follow it through the meaning of the East returning home, closing death’s door”  New Year by BEI DAO

In an ever moving world, the interrelation between citizens and states is getting larger, altering the significance of existing boundaries. Self-determination while still considered a cardinal principle in modern international law, it is being accompanied in modernity by citizens savvy in technology. Socializing by media is creating autonomous mobs around topics and most likely enlarging the territory of an idea of a nation into some ricochet entities of thoughts and likes.

Where does the traditional state stand in front of such hacks on its classicism?

If it is true that self determination is not determined in its outcome if it should be independence, federation, protection, or some form of autonomy and/or full assimilation, It is also true that the state core is being challenged in the modern era.
A scenario is already in place where citizens work and age or move and relocate from a jurisdiction into another, while having simultaneously connections and linkage without clear jurisdiction or normative in many areas.
Therefore while the last stage of citizenry : the state, is being altered, the first stage of it is definitely under continuous evolution. This is a dual march which is unknown where it will lead.
Corporations , arms dealers, multinational companies are trying to exploit beforehand this outcome, yet the certainty of binding rules and norms is blurring the perimeter of profit.
Are the world elite lacking a vision of Tomorrow? Are we moving From Rothschild Central Banking to banking from periphery with a rough child as irregular?
From above we can say that there is a theoretical thesis which enables change of the existing formula of strategy and international norms. This is the era of the post classic state that manages one nation; I will call it the pervasive state that manages several nations, communities, entities, and individuals, without being necessarily defined in its legislative, executive, economic, financial, cultural and military institutions.
Most popular revolutions in history walk on fanfare, yet this one revolution of the pervasive state is silently exploring the uncharted territories of tomorrow.
Considering that Russia took over Saudi Arabia as first exporter of Oil to China in October and November, and that China is projected to be closely trailing the US economy in the upcoming decade, it is obvious that the pervasive state will circumvent and change the essence of our future views.
Naval War rotating around the classic Heartland vision, and building network systems of advanced quantum technology, will both see cubits moving the future confrontation into the education of social international citizenry.
Reusable rockets technology , while fundamental to humanize the space will see itself projected into delivering a highway to an alternative community; that will save the specie and ensure a space view advantage.
We can envisage that hybrid cars self drive might well inundate the roads, that infrastructure of railways and safe ports for sea lanes will accelerate transportation of goods, however the global citizenry will be affected by inequality of reach at best.
My forecast for 2016 is that the US Dollar will reach parity with the Euro that Oil will average 27 USD, and Gold Ounce 950 USD, stock markets will witness a 5 % growth and International financial markets will cater to Greek needs. The US economy will lead the way as an engine for growth in mainly three sectors, alternative energy production, technology/arms sales and multi-use robotics.
It is my understanding that the South and North China Sea will not have major developments beyond the actual tit for tat in 2016, paving the way for an imperfect equilibrium. By contrast I consider two theaters as pivotal and a must closely watch, being candidates as prime time events making, the Russian near abroad and the Iranian near abroad.
While influence in Northern Syria will be contended between Russia and Turkey, influence in Southern Syria will be contended between Iran and Israel. Tactically the role of KSA will retrench and will rotate on Yemeni operations, preservation of Oil quotas/primacy, and internal issues, hence the Lebanese field will be affected largely from a strategic stand.
Perhaps the assassination of Alloush was the most prominent signal in the direction of Gulf States containment role in the Syrian theater. Russian missile systems to Iran and nuclear plants come at a price of power allocation.
Looking into the Iranian elections in February and the effects of the nuclear deal on the long run, I can say that the economic interests of the IRGC will be preserved and enlarged; therefore their longstanding power projection will be enhanced in Lebanon, in Western Afghanistan, in Southern Syria and in Southern Iraq.
Iranian role will be more dynamic starting March, after the revolutionary guards will secure victory in elections, and we will see positive reflections on their near abroad, an opportunity that will play into the hands of the secret agreement of Obama/Putin on Syria.
Stopping the Syrian hemorrhagic status while necessary will not result in a complete recovery of the patient nor into the reconstruction of the Syrian state or assets, rather on a tailor made accord that will preserve the interests of mainly 4 actors Russia/Iran/USA/Israel.
Defusing tension in Syria and stopping the plague will not only help the 4 actor’s interests in Syria alone but also will export benefits into Lebanon.
Russia will be more than happy to accommodate, in view of the upcoming events in its near abroad, where the Empire of Chaos will inevitably move its own minions.
It is no secret that electing a president in Lebanon will be the start of a new political mantra based on a different power sharing mechanism. My forecast is that intricacy will be resolved when International benefits ( Mediterranean LNG to Europe, NATO Air Base in North Lebanon, third republic reforms ) of future peaceful coexistence between both Israel and Hezbollah/IRGC in South Lebanon; will exceed benefits of the actual formula of Lebanon; open for all illicit traffics ( including the last heinous contraband of trash )and sponsored by Rothschild central bankers and the CIA.

Bookmakers in London while still giving 12 to 1 on Michel Aoun, 10 to 1 on Nadine Moussa, 20 to 1 on Suleiman Franjieh, will be happy to give ½ to 1 on ex commander of special forces, retired General Shamel Roukoz.

Making sense?

“Don’t try to make sense
Of the things that go wrong
Just have the strength to recover
Just have the will to be strong

Just because things don’t go
The way you wanted them to
Doesn’t mean the future
Doesn’t still hold good things for you

Keep your head help up high
Let a smile cover your face
Know that somewhere in this world
You will find your own place “ Don’t try to Make Sense By Ray Hensell

Thank You ,

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The First Warning to Lebanon

December 15, 2015

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

This is an open letter to the Lebanese Population Resident and Abroad,

Through the centuries and along more than two millenniums, since the inception of the cities along the Eastern Mediterranean shores; extremely rich achievements were conducted to pave the way for exchange and trade. Maritime pioneers relocated and waves of human resources roamed the planet, to invest in labor and to build projects and new cities worldwide.

Cedrus Libani established a code of conduct and honor since King Solomon, and was the direct cause that helped on the first historic outsourcing of labor.

It is no secret that Lebanese descendant communities had a major role in governance in Latin American countries, in development in African countries, in advisory research in North America, in networking and management in Arab Countries and in community based enhancement in Australia.

Lebanese pupils are great assets abroad, but lack totally in house. It is also evident that mismanagement, embezzlement, corruption, failure and decay characterize the consequent governments of Lebanon since its declared independence and its first two republics witnessed so far. The rule of law became a deceitful rule of killers, assassins and corrupt mafia men.

Molder is rampant and pervasive, the Lebanese fundamentals are decomposed from beneath, trash is all over, presidential vacuum is sitting undisturbed and public indebtedness is exponentially multiplying. Masculinity as norm, thought to deliver through muscles a command of the day, while all ruses are used to ill advice the citizen. The latest coup in an interminable series is the effort of the minister of agriculture to sell us the trash export at the higher cost USD 200 per ton, as the only option available. By default this will make us lose thousands of jobs in recycling and applying the zero waste hierarchy . Shame on Akram Shehayeb and on his crony master Walid Jumblat.

Much virtual ink was consumed to depict the sad reality, yet no cure is on the horizon.

Maneuvers, simmer, portrayal are on the hook, however without any consequential ending.  Oh Dear Lebanon!

While Finland and Switzerland will soon distribute cash money to every adult citizen to boost their economy and lessen the state expenditure,

Iceland also was very innovative and boarded the wagon, in introducing a financial novelty where the state will entitle the citizenry with part of the Banks shares.

From another side, Chinese consumers are showing interest in well being, while inequality is increasing the level of poverty in the US, and it is a commonly accepted fact that Indian literacy rate, while improving is still considered relatively low.

On the other hand it is comforting to notice that some Syrian refugees were well received in a land of freedom, Canada; and another minor part of them regained their original homes after obligatory relocation.

Almost one week ago COP21 just ended its works and pledges are made to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and Lebanon isn’t even thinking to start-up Wind Turbines in Akkar Plain, Solar Panels in Bekaa Valley, or Trash converted to Energy in Marjayoun Plain, leave alone the initiation of exploration and extraction of gas and oil in its likely offshore fields.

LCPS is following up on this as per link http://www.lcps-lebanon.org/featuredArticle.php?id=61 .

Perhaps Lebanese politicians should recur to the tactic used in Paris climate talks, where participants stood in a circle one facing the other, and talking frankly their thoughts to reach a culmination agreement.

Known to be the nation that misses all geopolitical chances, Lebanon governed by an incompetent and obtuse political elite or mafia in power, unhindered, is irrepressible to move forward.

Yet once again, fate magnanimity gives Lebanon a new chance to act and this is due to three reasons mainly, the low price of commodities ( Oil and Gold )in international markets, the likely success of talks to end the Syrian quagmire, the economic foreseen instability in 2016 of 4 major regional powers KSA, IRAN, TURKEY and ISRAEL.

This time the window dresses up an opening until end of April 2016, to elect a President for a one year transition, approve a modern electoral law in all its facets, implement municipal elections, assign the dates for general elections, approve a legal debt ceiling, make good use of military aid and build on this to secure the land and reinforce the intelligence community instead of distorting its mission by pursuing innocent activists. Finally forgo the second republic in a fine tuning of the constitution to upgrade into the Third Republic.

If it is true that in some Lebanese schools Syrian students exceed 600 or even 700 students, which is by itself a great sign of Lebanese capability, it is also true that the political deadlock is impeding any achievement beyond social.

Therefore the international chancelleries will dose a patient stand with the local elite for a short time still, and the demand is clear, elect a transition president to implement tangible and immediate institutional reforms or else perish in an annihilating conflict that will transfer to the Lebanese Arena all the contradictions existing in the nearby theater of Syria.

Obviously it is not about electing “Il Capo Dei Capi ” , who will reaffirm the rule of the feudal yoke , militiamen and warlords ; rather it will be the election of a president who will pave the way for a true solution to be sponsored and mentored by all players from local, regional to international.

By alphabetical order I can see great chances for a compromise president who can be either Nadine Moussa (Presidential candidate with vision,  lawyer and activist) , Shamel Roukoz ( ex SF commander with integrity) or Youssef el Khal (veteran actor and political thinker beginner). In all cases it is not about the candidate but about the agenda.

Oh Lebanon, Don’t miss this window, as it is your first warning to avoid descending in total chaos and international oblivion. Let peace replicate itself and endure or else disorder will dissolve Beirut in a decade of tumult until a new country is made out of dust.

Wish all friends and allies of Lebanon, the non Lebanese residents in the hospitable land of Lebanon and all Lebanese citizens and descendants living in Lebanon or in the Diaspora, a very prosperous 2016.

A special dedication to those who trust me and rely on my instinct and core analysis to interpret the effects of the multilateral foreign affairs on Lebanon, to regulate the regional pace, and eventually to set the International mood.

Thank You,


Kiss Taef Goodbye

December 7, 2015

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,
In a major effort to keep up with the events unfolding worldwide, observers can only register the rapid pace of changes occurring, and the evolving outcomes of different theaters.
In an extremely fast world, there is always a major need to elaborate positioning and assess geopolitical environments, from Raqqa, to Paris, from Mosul to San Bernardino, from Kiev to Ankara, from Sanaa to Moscow.
It is known that Turkey entered Iraq to ensure some tactical leverage, as much as Russia delivered T-90 tanks to the Syrian zone of conflict. Israel has just pounded Friday last a convoy of trucks at the 155 Syrian troops position.
It is a fact also that the national electorate is influenced by the environment it nurtures, and by extension Venezuela and France, marked the success of the Venezuelan opposition to President Maduro and of the French National Front, who won respectively the public opinion ballot yesterday.
It is almost done for traders, that during this month on December 17 the decision that the US Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates after a halt since 2008, will be in vigor, in contrast with the ECB trend that went timid in its latest meeting.
OPEC will keep its output untouched and fiscal budgets break-even for oil producing countries, will suffer immensely. Russia and KSA are the most hit in this revenue turbulence.
Worth noting also is that two presidents, of Belarus and Iran each is expressing his way to identify with a policy of setting standards and autonomy. Belarus president didn’t confirm the summit with Putin end of November and Rouhani is boycotting the council of Expert’s sessions.
Lebanese commenters are taken these days by the folly of Mukhtara and the attempt of Saad Hariri and Nabih Berri to re-float the idea of the fallen Second republic, this by itself represents a snake tail movement that precedes a final adieu.
Some observers are trying to contribute with an honest effort calling for a fresh start. Yet the reality is much different. There is nothing fresh in the candidacy of Franjieh Jr, rather the same smelling odors of Trash of a lazy and ineffective elite and broken governance.
In truth the main concern and the strategic point of view is not the new president, rather the new republic. Confronting the old guard of thieves and thugs, the militia men and the don’s of feudalistic medieval rules, is not a cake walk, it will turn out as a major draining of resources to get to a valid national compromise safeguarding the rights of the citizenry.
As we look for change, and ask for a presidential program, we can’t accept a continuum in mediocrity. The president of the republic is the head of the armed forces, and it is well known that the crime scene of a major explosion that rocked the nation was altered under the supervision of a complacent minister of interior. An international tribunal is looking into the facts still.
Trading to the grand public any solution at any cost, will replace the actual rule of thieves by the same rule of the same thieves, his Beatitude will forgive me for being straightforward. A blatant disrespect of the civil society at a minimum, and here we reiterate the call for an enlarged national dialogue including the civil society and the approval of a road map for Lebanese Transition.
There is an urgent need for sanity to replace the folly of Mukhtara, where a political road map can extract Lebanon from the stale mate. First of all it is pivotal to finalize the new electoral law in all its details including funding and expenditures by January 31, secondly there is a basic need to fill the presidential vacuum with a transition president ad interim for one year ( by February, preferably elect Nadine Moussa, or Shamel Roukoz as an expression of compromise for change) , third form an all inclusive cabinet composed also by civil society representatives entre autre to tackle emergencies and define contingencies for economic recovery.

Finally there is need to implement municipal elections ( by March ) and general elections ( June/July ) , then call on the national council to gather including all personalities from different extractions, and define a new national platform /accord with accurate constitutional reforms by December 2016 .

Only then can we elect a new president for a complete mandate and proceed with the new republic. All talks about the old guard ruses and maneuvers will lead nowhere; the priority is not a new president rather a new republic. Until we all catch up with this, including Hezbollah who is retaining the Lebanese foreign policy hostage in its hands as much as the decision to go to war or peace, there is an enduring halt to the public and to its political life.
Lebanese failed gangster politicians should realize that their own mistakes and deeds, led the citizenry to kiss Taef Goodbye.

May Taef rest in peace.

Dead this accord we will all peacefully make a new one.

Thank You,