Greetings and Good Day,
“a child carrying flowers walks toward the new year , a conductor tattooing darkness listens to the shortest pause .
hurry a lion into the cage of music , hurry stone to masquerade as a recluse
moving in parallel nights .
who’s the visitor? when the days all , tip from nests and fly down roads
the book of failure grows boundless and deep .
each and every moment’s a shortcut , I follow it through the meaning of the East returning home, closing death’s door” New Year by BEI DAO
In an ever moving world, the interrelation between citizens and states is getting larger, altering the significance of existing boundaries. Self-determination while still considered a cardinal principle in modern international law, it is being accompanied in modernity by citizens savvy in technology. Socializing by media is creating autonomous mobs around topics and most likely enlarging the territory of an idea of a nation into some ricochet entities of thoughts and likes.
Where does the traditional state stand in front of such hacks on its classicism?
If it is true that self determination is not determined in its outcome if it should be independence, federation, protection, or some form of autonomy and/or full assimilation, It is also true that the state core is being challenged in the modern era.
A scenario is already in place where citizens work and age or move and relocate from a jurisdiction into another, while having simultaneously connections and linkage without clear jurisdiction or normative in many areas.
Therefore while the last stage of citizenry : the state, is being altered, the first stage of it is definitely under continuous evolution. This is a dual march which is unknown where it will lead.
Corporations , arms dealers, multinational companies are trying to exploit beforehand this outcome, yet the certainty of binding rules and norms is blurring the perimeter of profit.
Are the world elite lacking a vision of Tomorrow? Are we moving From Rothschild Central Banking to banking from periphery with a rough child as irregular?
From above we can say that there is a theoretical thesis which enables change of the existing formula of strategy and international norms. This is the era of the post classic state that manages one nation; I will call it the pervasive state that manages several nations, communities, entities, and individuals, without being necessarily defined in its legislative, executive, economic, financial, cultural and military institutions.
Most popular revolutions in history walk on fanfare, yet this one revolution of the pervasive state is silently exploring the uncharted territories of tomorrow.
Considering that Russia took over Saudi Arabia as first exporter of Oil to China in October and November, and that China is projected to be closely trailing the US economy in the upcoming decade, it is obvious that the pervasive state will circumvent and change the essence of our future views.
Naval War rotating around the classic Heartland vision, and building network systems of advanced quantum technology, will both see cubits moving the future confrontation into the education of social international citizenry.
Reusable rockets technology , while fundamental to humanize the space will see itself projected into delivering a highway to an alternative community; that will save the specie and ensure a space view advantage.
We can envisage that hybrid cars self drive might well inundate the roads, that infrastructure of railways and safe ports for sea lanes will accelerate transportation of goods, however the global citizenry will be affected by inequality of reach at best.
My forecast for 2016 is that the US Dollar will reach parity with the Euro that Oil will average 27 USD, and Gold Ounce 950 USD, stock markets will witness a 5 % growth and International financial markets will cater to Greek needs. The US economy will lead the way as an engine for growth in mainly three sectors, alternative energy production, technology/arms sales and multi-use robotics.
It is my understanding that the South and North China Sea will not have major developments beyond the actual tit for tat in 2016, paving the way for an imperfect equilibrium. By contrast I consider two theaters as pivotal and a must closely watch, being candidates as prime time events making, the Russian near abroad and the Iranian near abroad.
While influence in Northern Syria will be contended between Russia and Turkey, influence in Southern Syria will be contended between Iran and Israel. Tactically the role of KSA will retrench and will rotate on Yemeni operations, preservation of Oil quotas/primacy, and internal issues, hence the Lebanese field will be affected largely from a strategic stand.
Perhaps the assassination of Alloush was the most prominent signal in the direction of Gulf States containment role in the Syrian theater. Russian missile systems to Iran and nuclear plants come at a price of power allocation.
Looking into the Iranian elections in February and the effects of the nuclear deal on the long run, I can say that the economic interests of the IRGC will be preserved and enlarged; therefore their longstanding power projection will be enhanced in Lebanon, in Western Afghanistan, in Southern Syria and in Southern Iraq.
Iranian role will be more dynamic starting March, after the revolutionary guards will secure victory in elections, and we will see positive reflections on their near abroad, an opportunity that will play into the hands of the secret agreement of Obama/Putin on Syria.
Stopping the Syrian hemorrhagic status while necessary will not result in a complete recovery of the patient nor into the reconstruction of the Syrian state or assets, rather on a tailor made accord that will preserve the interests of mainly 4 actors Russia/Iran/USA/Israel.
Defusing tension in Syria and stopping the plague will not only help the 4 actor’s interests in Syria alone but also will export benefits into Lebanon.
Russia will be more than happy to accommodate, in view of the upcoming events in its near abroad, where the Empire of Chaos will inevitably move its own minions.
It is no secret that electing a president in Lebanon will be the start of a new political mantra based on a different power sharing mechanism. My forecast is that intricacy will be resolved when International benefits ( Mediterranean LNG to Europe, NATO Air Base in North Lebanon, third republic reforms ) of future peaceful coexistence between both Israel and Hezbollah/IRGC in South Lebanon; will exceed benefits of the actual formula of Lebanon; open for all illicit traffics ( including the last heinous contraband of trash )and sponsored by Rothschild central bankers and the CIA.
Bookmakers in London while still giving 12 to 1 on Michel Aoun, 10 to 1 on Nadine Moussa, 20 to 1 on Suleiman Franjieh, will be happy to give ½ to 1 on ex commander of special forces, retired General Shamel Roukoz.
“Don’t try to make sense
Of the things that go wrong
Just have the strength to recover
Just have the will to be strong
Just because things don’t go
The way you wanted them to
Doesn’t mean the future
Doesn’t still hold good things for you
Keep your head help up high
Let a smile cover your face
Know that somewhere in this world
You will find your own place “ Don’t try to Make Sense By Ray Hensell
Thank You ,