The new cabinet of lebanon

January 3, 2014

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“With their mistake, I buy mistakes, from their disheartening words, I suffer;
Blood spurts out of my wound, how can I dry the water?” The Boat, Nimā Yushij , نیما یوشیج

In an objective analysis related to the achievements of the Ahmadinejad presidency,
we can easily realize that poverty raised in Iran as much as the national GNP dropped
drastically.
Radicalism in Iran represented by the government of the Revolution Guards and the
populist Ahmadinejad can be referred to as an immense waste.
Looking also to the political ramifications of the late Iranian projection of power,
we can heartedly be touched by the huge waste, when we look at major errors committed by
the Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki. And by the Syrian Bashar Assad who miserably failed to advance
his nation into the road of modernity.
The crossroad of all this mismanagement is definitely best represented in the Lebanese Hezbollah
which altered the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 and the Israeli failure in 2006, into a waste of the gains,
by pointing the rifle north and extending the lines of supply from 80 km to 500 km.
Lebanon is threatened to become a hell of fire and theater of internal strife.
It is well known that accountability can’t be applied extensively in the Middle East,
because of arrogance and corruption, but can at least merit be visible and emerge?
Meritocracy is one of the guidelines and principles that must set the formation boundaries
of the new Lebanese cabinet. Two personalities are to be mentioned and these are Minister
Marwan Charbel and General Abbas Ibrahim of the General Security.
Whenever meritocracy is one guideline of the new cabinet, then the rest can be a focus
on the short duration, the number of ministers and the possible achievements.
It is known that the new cabinet will be in place until the election of the new president.
However, both issues are not intertwined formally, in the sense that a grand bargain will pave
the way for the cabinet.
Definitely not, and this is why the talk about a cabinet made out from the national dialogue committee
is not reasonable nor possible.
Here the chances of President Amin Gemayel, General Aoun, Mr Sleiman Franjieh and
Dr Geagea to be elected are very finite and slim if not impossible. Let them rest their
divisive efforts and cooperate for once.
So the equation in the new cabinet is the number of ministers and the more we have, the complexity
will be higher, therefore the perfect number is ten.
Considering 2 shiite , 2 sunni, and one druze, 2 maronite, one catholic, one orthodox and one Armenian.
The second equation is that the new cabinet will require paving the way for a second TAEF,
to adjust the harmony of the national cohesion and to impede any destruction of the Lebanese
coexistence.This is not because Taef 1 is wrong, but because we will insert few clauses to make it
acceptable by everyone.
As we know there are 4 major issues upcoming, the Geneva 2, the nuclear file of Iran,
the Israeli Palestinian talks, and the tribunal for Lebanon.
The proposal for the new cabinet of Lebanon can consist of two options,
one I already wrote about on this blog some time ago, made out of 10 ministers and formed
mainly by entrepreneurs, and the second who is more consequential is as follows:
Mr Tammam Salam PM ( economy, information, justice), Mr Adnan Kassar ( Finance minister, Culture),
General Ibrahim ( sanity, labour, foreign affairs, agriculture), General Charbel (Interior),
Mr Hussein Husseini (relations with the parliament, environment) ,
Mr Samir Moukbel ( deputy pm, defense, justice, communication ),
Mr Nazim Khoury ( tourism , public works), Mr Wael Abou Faour
( social affairs, education, sports), Mr Abraham Dedeyan ( Industry),
Mr Joe Takla ( energy, displaced).

This combination is very balanced and the second step will be to submit to the parliament the
program, and here I recommend that, to the declaration of Baabda a phrase shall be added.
Where the sanctuary of the state will be defended to consolidate coexistence and amalgam all the
Lebanese strata by any form, even through unconventional popular methods based on resistance
where the state reputes necessary.
This will lead us to the vote and chances are very strong that it will be voted, especially
if we consider that there is a precedent where the socialist party gave freedom to vote
during Mr Kamal Jumblat positioning in the early seventies.
With the calculated approach of the new cabinet ( articles debating the constitutional framework of
the formation abound, yet thinkers and writers fail to give the appropriate solution, for the emergency
Lebanon is witnessing) all players will be oriented to the new president election including the
Iranian excellent mediator Rouhani.
There are only two names with chances to be elected Lebanese president and these are
Mr Joseph Tarabey and General Jean Kahwaji.
My preference goes to Tarabey because Lebanon will need to go on Taef 2 (rotation between Pm and speaker and reinforcement for the president powers by calling on early general elections, plus the introduction of the referenda institution).
Taef 2 will have excellent effects on relations between Iran and KSA and it will mean the true
transfer of all files from the IRGC to the administration of president Rouhani.

“Nadda was by the water spring, and I asked her why she was not around, she looked at me with
those eyes, and she wanted to talk to me but she did not want to, o’Naddaa”
O Naddaa Lebanese song, by Sabah, lyrics Mansour Rahbani , Music Assi Rahbani

Thank You,

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Pax Persiana

December 11, 2013

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and good Day,

This is an open letter to President Hassan Rouhani of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“As for those who own, indeed, that it was made by God, and yet ascribe to it not a temporal but only a creational beginning …” De Civitate Dei contra Paganos, Augustine of Hippo ( ref. wikipedia)

Mr. President,

It is a source of comfort to note that in a relatively short period of time, your efforts and vision managed to bring a positive result, by agreeing on a first compromise with the P5+1; with the aim to secure and ensure sane governance, for the geopolitical area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

The purpose of my letter is to be transparent, in supporting a road map to achieve the rest of the necessary steps, which will project an evolution of open ended regional crisis to an era of a possible Pax Persiana.

As you might agree, moving forward is pivotal to stir events into the right direction of economic growth and regional security.

This task is clearly epic and requires much discipline, patience and openness, qualities that are in the core of the Persian soul.

The basics of advancement should be formed on the edifice of modernity and reform, where a general concept of security for all must prevail.

While I understand that you will be absorbed by national policies oriented to restore hope and spur opportunities in a very young Iranian population, I do care that you succeed in resolving the outstanding with the UAE in the three islands issue and you develop a regional energy/security  strategy that will take into consideration local aspects such as the Kurdish Autonomy in the recent pipeline to Turkey.

Local aspects abound in the Middle East and your efforts can stop or end prematurely if not in cognizance with each and every local reality.

The truth Mr. President is that your capability to broker the recent deal in Geneva elevates your nation/state to the level of a peace maker rather than a regional spoiler.

This is unprecedented per se’.

All the tactics elaborated so far in generating an Iranian position in the world stage, should be immediately updated and composed around a scheme of acceptance and prosperity.

The fist unclenched, is what we look for, in Lebanon at first.

You are well into politics and the game of the nations to realize that there is a great need to start somewhere, in order to transform the insufficient interim deal into a comprehensive agreement.

The time frame is short, as there are almost six months that can be renewed, yet without a further consolidation, the achievements of Geneva, might well be reduced to only ink.

While the Syrian theater will see the winter coming, as the imminent opening of the highway to the coast that will enable the transportation of CW on board of the Ship furnace, there is little else to mention whenever we agree that Geneva 2 must free all prisoners, open humanitarian corridors, approve aid to refugees and agree on a cease fire in waiting for political designs to be discussed for Geneva 3.

It is already evident that the foreign policy of the IR of Iran is much dynamic, however without a focus on the Lebanese theater and a satisfying solution to the present standstill, there can’t be a true Iranian evolution.

What is required is your cooperation, to help on a new neutral cabinet in Lebanon made out of professionals and independents that will ensure the presidential elections to take place on time, and address urgent social needs. Institutional matters such as a modern electoral law and general elections will be handled on a later stage.

Pax Persiana can become reality from vision; it only needs to start making peace from Beirut.

“Indeed, Allah is forgiving and Merciful… Then deliver him to his place of safety….So as long as they are upright toward you, be upright toward them” Surah At-Tawbah (Arabic: سورة التوبة, Sūratu at-Tawbah, Sura 9 .

Thank you,


Hope and Belief

November 18, 2013

English: Israel & Iran Flages

English: Israel & Iran Flages (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

“Hope is the state which promotes the desire of positive outcomes related to events and circumstances in one’s life or in the world at large” Wikipedia

 

It is a fact that both the US and Iran are going through dire economic woes, obliging both countries to search, for the best suitable bilateral deal, that will project each nation in its designed strategic approach, while  pursuing their own national interests.

 

The financial easing in the US since Chairman Greenspan, was perhaps genuinely seeking to spur growth, yet the grave effects of the housing bubble produced an unprecedented and still enduring crisis.

 

Whenever we add to this bubble, the mismanagement of the Iraq post-intervention and the disastrous effects of the US corporate outsourcing, here we are in the actual job crisis showing no sign of recovery.

 

At this stage and after huge easing, what the FED needs to do is to taper in a gradual and predictable pattern, simply because the cure is not anymore through financial remedy, rather it is by a wide reform of the system, and a better distribution of the richness.

 

What is on demand, is a new generation of small and middle enterprises, run by young entrepreneurs, that have both hope and belief, and that they can change and reform an American system that is standing still.

 

Regulations, relaxations and taxation are the key to move forward, and this can be done only when young representatives will gain the trust of the people.

 

In Iran, the nuclear research is considered to be a pillar of the national security, imposed by the aftermath of the Iraq/Iran war, hence immense resources are spent on this project. The nuclear project is leading, to economic disarray, to a chaotic power projection and to an isolation of major proportions.

 

From a strategic and diplomatic stand point, there might be commonality between the US/Iran today and the US/China during the Nixon presidency, however the imperfect analogy is much imperfect.

 

China had a bordering foe in the USSR and it had a nuclear status. By contrast, Iran yesteryear’s foe (Iraq) dissolved and it is still working incessantly, to enter with minimum cost the nuclear club.

 

The analogy is more evident, in the desire of both Iran and Israel to be secure, and this mortal insecurity is leading the ME into an apocalyptic scenario.

 

Israel from one side, willing to disintegrate the crescent and Iran from another, willing to impose a Persian strategic concept, through a Shiite revisited dogma.

 

The US adds fuel, by its own interpretation of the national interest, where pivoting to Asia/Pacific in tandem with disengaging from the ME, represents the policy of the current administration.

 

A US policy thought to lower costs and to advance growth and jobs at home, even if results are tardy to be manifested and achieved.

 

In view of the disorder in the crescent, and the geopolitical importance of the Caspian, the US shift to the Pacific will alter significantly the global equilibrium for a decade or so.

 

The US is caught between a rock and a hard place; from one side being very close to oil sufficiency doesn’t strengthen it on the short run. Apparently the US international maneuver by exiting the ME will inevitably enforce other powers, e.g. China, Russia or France. And from another side, it will endanger the security needs of its regional friends and allies mainly Egypt, Gulf Monarchies, Pakistan, Israel and Lebanon.

 

While seeking to play a balancing role, in truth the US is failing to produce a stable model in a delicate area. The US is today visibly shifting towards seeking any deal to exit the ME.

 

We know that there is a perfect deal, a practical deal and a foul’s deal. France is working on a 4 points deal which is very effective, to be introduced on November 20th in Geneva.

 

Obviously this scenario of a US deal at any cost with Iran to exit the ME, will mean the rise of the rest on the middle run, be these Russia, China, Iran, Israel, France or the trio Pakistan/Egypt/KSA.

 

It is unclear in this crucial phase how things will develop, yet the hope is that the US withdrawal will not cause the same chaos that was witnessed in Vietnam years ago, or in Iraq and in Afghanistan recently.

 

A tragedy of unknown proportions is in the making, where refugees and disorder will embark in the Levant from Sana’a to Tashkent.

 

Ramifications of instability will touch presumably an immense geographic arc. The Russians will exploit the Mediterranean, the Iranians will vigil on Hormuz, the Chinese will revive the Silk Road; and the Israelis will try to create a stable network to replace their constant game of disintegration.

 

The Syrian theater will continue to be a platform of confrontation until we reach Geneva 7 or 9 perhaps. The US will develop ties to the Pacific while maintaining traditional ones with the Atlantic.

 

Therefore the US “wings” grand strategy (Atlantic /pacific) will eclipse the global superpower status De-Facto.

 

From above we can assume in 2014 some emerging possible definitions:
US a wings power, Russia a Mediterranean broker, Iran a Hormuz gendarme, Israel a regional unilateral spoiler, France an outsourced power for the Iranian nuclear file, China a market economy with 2 kids, India an incubator of web innovations, Japan a recovering economy, Germany a power seeking an international positioning and KSA an oil producer searching for a consequential evolution.

 

The moving global panorama will alter the game of the nations and will reshuffle the cards in hand of many players.

 

Lebanon will need to strengthen its internal edifice to face the geopolitical earthquakes by forming a cabinet, by approving an electoral law, by electing a new president and a new parliament, by reforming the state, by boosting the army’s capability and finally by recovering the economy.

 

The point is that unless the US will couple to its wings policy a corpus that represents global responsibility, it will never fly. In fact old concepts of national interest are misplaced, a fashion of obsolete schools of thought, wings without a corpus are only wings and will not express economic recovery, leave alone global governance.

 

How will the US decipher its own path to recover and guide responsibly? This will be a major hurdle in international affairs.

 

Outsourcing was a historic option since the days of King Hiram of Tyre.

 

Hope and belief are posed in a young generation of US entrepreneurs who will gain the favor of the US public and introduce long-awaited reforms and farsighted strategy.

 

“Belief is the psychological state in which an individual holds a conjecture or premise to be true” Wikipedia

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


The Deal – Vision

November 11, 2013

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva ...

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) Français : Armoiries du canton de Genève (Suisse) Deutsch: Wappen des Kantons Genf (Schweiz) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I lost the love of heaven above, I spurned the lust of earth below, ………. In every language upon earth, on every shore, o’er every sea, …. and kept my spirit with the free.” A Vision by John Clare

It is a source of comfort to learn that the desire to reach an agreement between the contenders in Geneva will continue in next rounds of talks. As we know these talks date since many years, with ups and downs and it is high time now, to express a vision with principles and guidelines under which umbrella the framework of the phased agreements will be reached.

The vision is very simple, where it stands for acceptance, solidarity and respect. Each nation in the Middle East will commit to accept and recognize fully the other nations, including Israel, Palestine and Iran. Each nation will commit to express a state policy based on solidarity and sharing where a system of regional security will be emerging and finally each nation will respect the peaceful desire of growth within an open borders strategy of ideas and goods free of WMD threats.

Aligning negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran will enable all players to express a phased route projecting the populations of the entire area into an era of peace.

I envisage three phases stretching on a time frame of 3 years.

The first phase, will define nuclear interim agreement one in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 2 for the Syrian Crisis, it will resolve the Lebanese standoff and the Iraqi instability.

The second phase, will define nuclear interim agreement two in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 3 for the Syrian Crisis, and it will define the final status in the Israeli / Palestinian Conflict.

The third and final phase, will define the nuclear agreement in Geneva, it will convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and it will finalize talks for regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.

In the first phase, the nuclear interim agreement ONE in Geneva to be implemented by Dec 25 can consist of the immediate verifiable shutdown of Iran’s Arak heavy-water reactor in exchange for the release of 25 billion USD of Iranian accounts. On a separate track Geneva 2 will be called to convene by January 20 where humanitarian corridors, release of prisoners and a cessation of hostilities will be announced, the Syrian opposition will be represented by the new prime minister and a large and inclusive delegation. On another separate track a Lebanese neutral cabinet composed by 10 independents will be formed and will supervise the new electoral law, and the presidential election of Mr. Jean Kahwaji to proceed with the path of giving the Lebanese army the necessary time to be in charge of the cedar nation. Lebanese general elections will take place in September 2014. On another track an Iraqi sharing system of governance will be defined in a national conference Baghdad 1 where participation in the decision making will be open to all communities.

In the second phase, the nuclear interim agreement TWO in Geneva, will consist of the unilateral declaration by the Iranian nuclear agency that a cap of 80 KG will be applied on the quantity of 20 % enriched Uranium held on Iranian territory at any given time, measures will be put in place by the IAEA to verify by March 20. International Powers will release all held Iranian Bank accounts and ease sanctions on precious metals. On a separate track Geneva 3 will be called to convene within April 20 and a political transition, expressed by a national cabinet will be declared where there will be no space for the Assad clan. The final status of talks to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian conflict will take shape by August 2014 and a map with temporary borders will be accepted, the viable and sovereign nation of Palestine will be born. Jerusalem will have an international status under common and rotating administration. The state of Israel will have all kind of assurances that the citizens of Israel and the Jewry worldwide will be in amenity in a homeland.

In the third and final phase, the nuclear agreement in Geneva finalized by September 30, will consist of the Iranian Petroleum Agency announcing its desire to coordinate a plan of investment for gas exploitation in tandem with an international private consortium.  International powers will release all sanctions and will support the full membership of Iran in the WTO. On a separate track Iran and the US will be the sponsors to convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and this will be coupled by talks on enhancing regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.  The main purpose will be to guarantee the security of Israel, the support of growth in Palestine, the diplomatic projection of Iran and its acquisition of a middle power status. Gulf Countries will act as facilitators and true believers in peace.

    “ I have not walked on common ground, Nor drunk of earthly streams; ……. Life is a race fore-run; Look in his face a little while, and life and death are one.” Vision by Marjorie Pickthall

     Thank You,

 


How Bad a Deal ?

November 8, 2013

This wall painting depicts a scene from a 17th...

This wall painting depicts a scene from a 17th century classical Iranian music ensemble. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Something that is bad is unpleasant, harmful, or undesirable... Analysts fear the situation is even worse than the leadership admits”.  From the Reverso Dictionary, on Bad Deal  

There is a growing consensus that the FED monetary policies, by now, should start giving a boost to the real economy, and not nurture anymore the upcoming bubble in the Stock Exchange. If it is true that what was done so far, was the only unconventional option at hand of a public actor, although privately owned, it is also true that a wise maneuver of tapering in a predictable and gradual way as soon as January ( 5 billion) , will reveal to be a very effective step to enhance the entire US economic architecture.

Architecture! A beautiful word used often nowadays to inform that the sanctions applied on Iran by the world powers are thought within a logic and a built structure. The amazing and fascinating thing is to understand how the architects will develop the plan where “ Iran, as a first step, will stop its nuclear program advancing any further and start rolling parts of it back; and in return the US will enact very limited, temporary and reversible sanctions relief”.

Any devised plan/deal as analysts understand, that will be announced today in Geneva, will be bad, yet they need to figure out and presage how bad it will be.

It is understood that any nuclear deal between the (US plus other powers) and Iran today, will be very bad, mainly because it will respond to the forces in place between the two opposed camps. Both the US and Iran accuse fatigue, dizziness, power shamble after decades of enmity in the New fragmented Middle East and they both look to limit damage and loss as a mutual convenience.

Hence apparently there will be a grand fanfare for a deal that isn’t.

The plan technically will resemble a PR campaign following the CW Syrian example, where much of the results will be an intrigue to decipher.

Either Iran will block its activity to a certain date in exchange for some sanctions relief albeit reversible, or the Syrian regime will benefit from a temporary moratorium in exchange for a CW secretly conducted destruction, in both cases main issues will not be resolved.

The Iranian role in the world today and its projection of soft power will require an illuminated vision by a strong leadership, as much as the Syrian population will need an international conference to make up a transitional cabinet, that will start the route for a reformed system of governance, based on homegrown principles and pillars of acceptance and governance sharing.

Assad will try to maintain his power base, but butchers of their own populations will not have any place in any future of respectable nations.

Apparently the weakness of main players is an asset for peace lovers, as this will impede any large conflagration from developing in the ME, however this same weakness is a major liability for entire populations, as it will maintain the entire architecture of instability floating in an area, which is in dire need of good deals to be negotiated and implemented.

What can be the view after the deal, vis a’ vis several issues related to the Geopolitics of the ME? At first it is rational to realize that a very bad deal still to be announced by the US and Iran will be the first deal, secondly that the Russian role is manipulating the US weakness to a major extent, thirdly that the upcoming stage where stability/instability will be brought by a variegated group of weak international players is by itself the base to compare it with an urban monster.

The thought of all players is to deliver an edifice, shaking as it is, yet a meaningful fact that architects of non confrontation, (by itself a non policy   leading nowhere),  are at work.

How true political solutions will develop in the ME, is about the mystery that the depth of badness will reveal to be in the upcoming deal.

Vision on demand!

“1vi·sion: mode of seeing or conceiving (2):  unusual discernment or foresight <a person of vision>” Merriam Webster Dictionary

Thank you,


The Invisible Hand

September 25, 2013

Quds Force Operations in 8 divisions

Quds Force Operations in 8 divisions (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the opening of the UN general assembly, some topics emerge strongly on the international scene.

 

The Syrian crisis, the Iranian nuclear file, the monitoring of information and the global economy are perhaps the most visible.

 

As for the Syrian crisis, it is clear by now what are the expectations of the Syrian population, in the heroic struggle, to establish a new national accord and a reformed state.

 

The international conference of Geneva is the viable forum, for talks and agreements, to take place with the aim of coexistence, justice, liberties, modernity and security.

 

Factions and brokers will undoubtedly negotiate as soon as January, a framework of transition, to a peaceful nation with guarantees of geopolitical interests for many players.

 

Although my understanding is, that the Assad clan will be out of the formula,

 

I can’t imagine an effective solution in Syria, without the contribution of the Iranians.

 

We know that an invisible hand was orchestrating the meetings of President Hassan Rouhani at the UN, reflecting the whispers of the inner circle in Tehran.

 

Observers could detect mixed signals coming out of Tehran in the immediate phase leading to the meetings at The UN.

 

There were articles, tweets and greets from one side coupled to missiles displays, parliament drafts and inauguration of plants from another.

 

The imminent interest of Tehran seems to be, to relief sanctions and avoid clashes with the US, while those of the US are focused to verify the nuclear Iranian research to be peaceful and create in tandem a sort of converging vision with Iran in the MENA region.

 

The meeting tomorrow between Iran and the 5 plus 1 group of nations is a step in the right direction, to explore diplomacy; however it is insufficient to generate concrete results.

 

What I see as required, is to build on the actual positive climate, where the US will propose to Iran, to set a first annual high level bilateral direct meeting, in the end of October in Beirut, where comprehensive talks will tackle a multitude of issues.

 

The US delegation can be led by the Secretary of State and include the CIA director.

 

Obviously the tracks to be discussed are multiple and intelligence is pivotal to indicate a practical path.

 

 

 

This brings us to the necessity of keeping a free flow of information in place while simultaneously exerting smooth monitoring on data.

 

It is important to understand that without information gathering we couldn’t learn about Natanz, Bushehr, Fordow, Arak, or even about the name of the daughter of the NK leader or the liberal views of the daughter of the Quds force.

 

Definitely information is linked to security and its appropriate handling by trained experts with knowledge of privacy and respect of specifics, is very important and will help on international prosperity and security.

 

My hope is that the Israeli establishment will seize the UN moment to talk about peace with the surrounding environment and to stress the national necessity to tutor its own security without rhetoric.

 

Military readiness and contingencies are always integral part of any political breakthrough.

 

Pending issues in politics led us to data, and inevitably this will bring us ultimately to productivity and markets.

 

 

 

Global growth is an immense challenge and achievements in this field are enormous.

 

Be this in China, Japan, Bangladesh, Turkey, India, South Africa, Australia Brazil or/and in many other nations.

 

Without doubt, markets are connected and a rapid link ensures velocity and tenure of transmission of levels for value and for services.

 

Offer will be always generated to play into demand and consumers will necessarily be in the fulcrum of the economic daily life.

 

Food, drinks, arms, durable goods, waste and environment will always be on our screens.

 

International relations are manageable often through the fruit of monetary policies and economic performance.

 

 

 

Education, immigration, business and social services will never cease to be the pillar of humanity.

 

 

 

Thank you        

 

 

 

 


At Large

September 23, 2013

OpenStreetMap Logo

OpenStreetMap Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the results of the German elections, a cabinet sponsored by a grand coalition can be envisaged, where the winning party will form the cabinet together to Social Democrats and the Greens.

 

Two of Europe’s biggest industries will be having a similar government (Italy and Germany) working on compromise to define a better policy for progress.

 

In Italy the cabinet will need to put through a policy to target the public debt and unemployment, or else a new election will be looming.

 

While in Germany the compromise will be, to achieve a smart energy policy coupled to an infrastructure investment, and a minimum wage adjustment that will not negatively influence exports.

 

Compromise is the essence of government, as multiple interests often collide and impede the civil society to act in dynamics that represent only one actor. The role of politicians is to mediate and to find solutions, and whenever they fail, as in Lebanon presently the interests of the collectivity will be endangered.

 

The hope for Lebanon in light of the Iranian charm offensive is to form a cabinet soon that will tackle major issues such as; neutral stance, dilution of the bifurcate divergence into a colorful and multifaceted cooperation, economic recovery, social crisis, security environment, strategic depth, constitutional reforms, start ups and job creation.

 

Definitely the challenge for the US in view of the looming deadline of the new fiscal year is to find a line of balance, where a reasonable raise of the public debt will be approved, together to an adjustment in expenditure in the federal budget that will not nullify food stamps.

 

It goes without saying that the market already accepted lady vice chairman, as a successor to Mr. Bernanke, where a predictable and gradual taper will be applied starting October, in an attentive effort to gather a pace between national interests “at large” and international markets performance.

 

As already described in a previous contribute, the national interests in our modern era are better defined “at large”, rather than in a thin prism of local and condensed view. The collectivity belonging to any nation is better served, whenever a wise and methodical process of understanding, is applied to geography, history, economics and to the international dynamics.

 

Analysts are elaborating about the last Russian diplomatic approach to the Syrian CW, the effective resolution of this file peacefully and the ramification of a political solution. It is reasonable to expect inspectors to arrive in Syria by the end of October, and that the process of political negotiation will begin in January, based on the principle of a new Syrian national accord that will pave the way for a transitional government.

 

The upcoming three months might reveal pivotal for the life line extended by the Iranian Republican Guards Council & the Supreme Leader, to the new Iranian president. Observers are considering that Mr. Rouhani doesn’t have much time ahead and that his space to maneuver is limited. I tend to differ on this, simply because the new president is the only asset in place for the option of a negotiated approach, that will avoid the climate of confrontation, be it through sanctions or a military engagement.

 

Hence I consider the Iranian president there to stay for long inn diplomacy and therefore the investment on shaking hands with him is not sufficient. The US approach should be, as a hosting player to the UN forum, to deliver much honor and welcoming.

 

I consider that in this particular momentum in international relations there are no two nations on earth that can benefit more from a rapprochement more than Iran and the US.

 

The principle to be enunciated is to accept the peaceful nuclear research in Iran as per international protocols, while ensuring the security of the state of Israel unconditionally, to permit this state to eliminate its own WMD, once peace treaties are in place accepting Israel as a final nation.

 

There is a concrete possibility that the decade 2014-2024 will be of enormous enhancement for the living conditions in the ME, where negotiations will succeed to deliver.

 

Thank you,