Greetings and Good day,
“Whenever governance will turn to be prohibiting the populace expression, black is the color of the nation”.
While we are all mourning innocent martyrs killed by the ruthless rulers of Damascus and their outrageous violence, paraphrasing the words of the White House, one must ask the right questions.
Where are we today and how we can move forward in Syria?
What is the vision?
Contrary to the views expressed by many analysts, I consider the genuine part of the enacted popular movement as the core of the change demand.
Therefore I expect it not to relent on all the legitimate demands.
Legitimacy is the key for the ongoing movement/revolution.
The strategy of the international community in Syria should be advanced and pointing on legalizing the process of modernity, beyond the conflict between the actual ruling dictatorship and the movement in all its components, while looking to establish a new and democratic Syria.
Whenever we agree on the basic reforms then we have the key to new Syria, whoever is the command of the state.
We know that late yesterday U.N. Security Council nations discussed a statement proposed by Britain, France, Germany and Portugal who want to condemn the violence against the protesters.
It seems that the draft statement backs a call made by Secretary General for an independent investigation into the killings where U.N. rights chief was invited to travel to Damascus.
The Security Council is set to resume discussions today to condemn the violence applied by Bashar Al Assad and his regime, call for restraint and support the investigation, where possible sanctions might be looked at and the indication for specific required reforms will be a great mix in the wording.
Whenever sanctions will be examined and discussed further at a meeting of ambassadors from EU member states in Brussels Friday, it is necessary that a parallel panel will gather to identify the road map for modernizing the Syrian sate avoiding clashes and violence.
Syria needs a constitutional reform with referenda, political law for new parties, election law with a federal concept and direct elections of governors.
It needs to decentralize the state and to transfer funds to the regions, reform the institutions and combat corruption & nepotism.
Syria needs to achieve peace while adhering to the just claim of liberating occupied Golan.
It is also beneficial to examine the shape of a modern army to be inserted in the regional security mechanism.
How we can get there? What are the steps to be taken? Who are the powers entitled to exert guidance?
If it is true that the US is absorbed by the budget debate, where necessary concrete measures should be taken to move the Medicare eligibility to 67, to advance ages for early and full social security benefits, in order to cut expenses; it is also true that simultaneous measures to increase revenue are needed such as slightly increase the federal gasoline tax and introduce a VAT Tax for luxurious items.
The FED itself is also considerably required to transit the QE 2 from being a Cold Turkey to becoming a Drinkable Tea, and this is by extending a gradually decreasing ( 100 million per month) QE until December.
While keeping interest rates untouched, as a weak dollar for now plays well to the interests of the recovery.
We don’t need to forget also that the US is also bogged in 4 theaters Iraq, Afghanistan, Japan, Libya, and has almost no leverage on Syria, therefore it is not the nation that will prime act. Although it can convene the UN Human rights council to debate the crimes and condemn the perpetrators.
China by contrast is bogged in its inflation cure, in the investments worldwide and in the Caribbean, in the energy bill and the inflation tiger.
It is also looking deep into the replacement to the Deng legacy, and reassessing its national policy for the coming two decades.
Hence it is not a prime actor.
BRICS nations are powerful but not enough to project an international design to indicate to the Arab Spring, although South Africa has a significant back ground from where inspire reconciliation and a common good.
We need to look then at a Quartet that will have the lead in Syria.
These are Germany , France, Qatar and Turkey.
We know that a Turkish envoy will arrive to Syria as soon as Thursday, and in my opinion he better becomes a stable envoy until the end of the crisis where daily consultations with both parties involved, the regime and the protesters will be necessary.
And it is important that European nations on Friday delegate a German and a French envoy to join the Turkish colleague and establish a permanent delegation acting for crisis management.
A Qatari envoy will complete the display.
The Quartet strong of a first UNSCR, will lead at the moment diplomatic efforts and a vision process to reestablish order and secure just rights for the citizenry.
The Turkish role will be pivotal as it has great influence and leverage with Syria and Iran and it will represent a modern role considered to be an extension of Europe in the healing East.
It will reinforce the chances of the APK in the June elections to have a net majority instead of sharing power.
Germany from its side has great links with Turkey in terms of immigration and labor communities, and has an excellent role to play in the European leadership to balance the growing debt and inflation.
Merkel is heard as a voice in the world.
France has historic responsibility in the Levant and there are personal relations between the two presidents and their wives.
Qatari Prince is a prime investor in Syria and has a villa in Plamyra, he has the ear of the ruler of Damascus.
The steps to be negotiated are to support a peaceful transition in Syria and to help the declared intentions of reforms to be implemented and not to be effaced by internal struggles or by vested powers.
Can this by itself succeed? Will it be sufficient?
It is definitely a scenario, where positioning diplomatic drones in Syria will help focus on the crisis and give it a major resonance and exposure.
It will diminish the aggressive tenure of the military and give breath to the citizenry.
This will need to be eventually supported by a large meeting where several personalities will gather to express free opinions and trace the way for Syria to extract itself from the actual stalemate.
An economic forum can follow also on the UN investigation for killings.
Intelligent behavior of Western circles will add difficulty to the Iranian regime facing a triple threat, internal problems in Iran and Syria and a new worm on its nuclear devices.
From above we can expect the cabinet dilemma in Lebanon to have either a long agony or to settle on the clear solution indicated in my previous mail : Made In Lebanon.
The Syrian dictator has a simple option to extricate himself by giving-in in Lebanon and on reforms.
March 14 and Hariri Family could never imagine a day when the STL findings could produce a genuine liberal movement in Syria, from here they need to accommodate and support Mikati’s efforts to form a new unity cabinet.
What remains is to form a commission for truth and peace.
Hezbollah should better realize that the day of reckoning is close if it will not insert a resistance Division in the LAF, and be part of an enforced national defense strategy.
Israel should perfect the Israeli Peace Initiative and make it a national state policy, to prepare for the September international recognition of Palestine.
We will still need to approach the Iranian regime’s expansion; however this is a matter of time, where it will necessarily implode from within, especially in view of the upcoming general elections, presidential elections and the ailing longevity of the supreme leader.
Iran is pouring power outside, yet losing human and brain power inside.
Therefore its model lacking economic vitality is destined to dissolve sooner rather than later.
As for the nuclear threat it was debated in Washington with the Emirati Crown Prince on behalf of Gulf nations, I have a recommendation to give to Saudi Arabia, which is to reach out through the Arab Gulf Council to all Arab nations and interact with Europe, China, Russia, India and the US of course.
King Abdullah and Crown Prince should better both resign and follow the path of the Lebanese patriarch, where Prince Nayef from Interior will become King, and the son of Abdullah will go to Interior.
As for Prince Bandar he is the good choice to become a Crown Prince, and work to reform the Kingdom and open it for the coming decades.
“Again and again Lebanon has an opportunity, and it needs to take it now”
- You: European nations condemn Syria’s violent crackdown on protesters (latimes.com)
- Diplomats seek ways to stop Syria crackdown (foxnews.com)
- Syria: Six dead as Syrian forces storm main mosque in Deraa as troubles take a vicious turn for the worse (dailymail.co.uk)
- Syria: More Tanks Roll Out as Turkey Sends Reform Delegation (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
- Turkey Sends Delegation to Syria (online.wsj.com)
- How Syria and Libya Got to Be Turkey’s Headaches (time.com)
- More shooting in city where Syrian uprising began (ctv.ca)
- Diplomats seek ways to stop Syria crackdown (sfgate.com)
- Diplomatic Damascus Drones (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Syria sends more troops to besieged southern city (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- UN chief condemns Syria violence (bbc.co.uk)