The Crossroads

October 27, 2010

Coat of arms of Lebanon

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Managing dynamics can easily become the modern challenge for policy makers

Following the last G20 meeting and the expected and upcoming NATO-Russian meeting, observers can easily affirm that the US Modern Grand Strategy based on a unique partnership with the EU and Russia and concerted relations with China is already bearing its fruits, meager and not.

Easing international relations and amplifying areas of cooperation in different sectors from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, reformed governance, is a requirement and a necessity in our contemporary evolving world.

Latest diffused data show some optimism in consumer sentiment in the US, and this is a welcomed indicator, although it can not affect the results of the mid term elections.

In truth a co-habitation will emerge and this will, contrary to perceptions, reinforce in my view the US market and world economy.

While analysts can agree with the need to rebalance international economies, not to heavily rely on one engine and market, it is widely accepted that in the coming decade recovery/growth can emerge mainly from the US and it will be a synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace efforts and to project soft/hard power.

From here balance in the US domestic politics will be a stabilizing factor albeit charged with verbal debate and political polemics.

How geopolitics between China and Portugal, will react is unknown.

Yet it is very rational to sum-up the US policy acting as a ballerina, to perform at best to avoid clamorous fall downs.

The US needs more than ever to recover its own economy, open to immigration, integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a Maliki/Allawi rotation in unity government in Iraq and help create a rotating unity “Jirga Governance” in Afghanistan.

But it needs also to act swiftly and decisively to change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Assuming that easing tensions in the Korean peninsula is an acquired achievement in the US foreign affairs thoughts, an innovative sunshine policy should be in the making. This has to be coupled to exerting global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon.

A wide and global effort directed to generate vision and to implement unison policies.

While efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, expectation is high that global trade will inevitably witness a growth and an increase in output and in consumption.

The requirement for a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. However this can be possible only if sources of energy are delivered to economies to generate international peace. The formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

My hope is that after Mid term, US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060 and reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks.

Furthermore define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. Invest in infrastructure, education and human resources.

Finally elaborate the rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver of recovery.

But my concern is if the global dynamics will enable above policies to be applied.

Risks are many starting from the necessity for Israel to ally Likud & labor with Kadima, halt settlements and exert a major flexibility in talks with the NPA, and for Syria to opt irreversibly for peace and chose the West as a sincere partner.

Furthermore both nations will need to reach out in direct talks. I imagine notables Moratinos, Blair, Mitchell, Suleiman, Lavrov and Sarkozy to stand in a joint conference with Assad where he will announce his unequivocal determination to become a peace maker in the ME and a consequent direct meeting Assad/Netanyahu to follow in Paris.

Failure to advance with concrete steps in the right direction will leave the citizenry subject to hazardous winds that might well alter the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, pronging conflict and instating strife and ultimately war.

Positive steps can be the evolution in the US parley/covert action with the IRGC, a breakthrough in peace talks with Federal Palestine, a successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, a Syrian decisive embrace to a new future, a Chinese financial role to pursue a dual track with the US enforcing world order.

In the Third Dynamic I explained about different factors governing world affairs today, and elaborated to a certain extent about the dangers, where I prospected the third velocity to obscure if not suppress the movement of the rest during a conflict and a devastating impact.

We all know that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, but perpetrators can not hope that crimes and skeletons will be simply put in the closet.

And here the indictment of the STL rivets a major importance because it represents the pendulum of intentions either for western culture or for fomenters of death.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon.

The regime in Syria must know that it has to take a decision and this is either for peace and with a sovereign Lebanon, or for war and against Lebanon.

The IRGC and Hizb can manipulate at will, yet they need to know that the modularity, velocity, flexibility, build up and power accumulated so far and still in process, will oblige them to surrender and to demise.

Objective analysts can forecast future projection scenarios, however there are irrevocable lines and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense.

Hope and hostility will always differ, but under no circumstance their interaction will change the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Af-pak Theater.

Although the STL indictment expected to be issued immediately after 25 November, is considered to be the trigger for a remarkable “Casus Belli”, it is also fairly objective to consider the maneuvers played by the perpetrators, to be laying in agony in the courtyard of determination and resolute attitude.

Those who will start the conflict in Lebanon will lose with certitude.

The military reaction and the pace of operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will be eradicated as a military extension, and the IRGC will be decimated and this will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major favorable impact for the decades to come.

The perimeter of the battle will be only in Lebanon, (as if it expands to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) its conduct (initiative and pace) will be unprecedented and the outcome will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse in oppressive regimes seeking only survival.

The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action will be set by the international community, for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

While no plan of battle will match the outcome, it is safe to consider that the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and at the last minute Syria will oblige the IRGC to desist before committing any strategic mistake.

The Syrian commander in chief will ponder a decision if to throw his nation into chaos or to accept the STL and make a just peace with Israel where lots of terrain near Palmyra, will produce enough energy for an ever increasing population in number and in consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power.

We are at a crossroads, the indictment will seek a peaceful dismantling of Hizb military assets, and whenever this will not occur, the day after, will resemble to an epic tragedy.

Diplomats, Charities and NGO’s will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance.

The only possible future for the area is to grow and to approve a common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt/Iran and the GCC nations, where failure to oversee this framework will plunge all of humanity into a bad formula.

The bad formula will substitute praise to good actions, by indifference to assassinations and to expanding totalitarian regimes devouring universal rights.

“Knights with colored flags will stand in front of hatred and ignorance, defending rights and tutoring disabled and poor”

Thank you,