Pax Riduttiva : WAR

July 19, 2010

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ Whenever Pax Collettiva is not possible, the simplest equation that can materialize is : Pax riduttiva : WAR “

Observing the evolution of the US –Russian partnership and the great job being done by the Germans and Russians one can only express satisfaction. Our hope is that further talks will lead to the adherence of the Russian currency in the Euro, and the opening of the newly established city of science in Russia to some 5000 US graduates per year to visit and to temporary establish. Russian balancing foreign policy to the west will only portray on its population great benefits and generate an engine of opportunities to its economy totally dependent on raw materials.

Considering the expected changes in global monetary and currency terms, the inclusion of the ruble in the euro and the floating of the Yuan; global peaceful citizens can rest assured that the basics for a prolonged era of peaceful international relations are set.

The pillar is that the US modern Grand Strategy of peacefully partnering with Russia and concerting with China is the only opening for an era of sound global governance. In fact it is only through a healthy partnership between the US and Russia and by concerting the Chinese prosperity that global governance can positively impact the interests of the world citizenry for many years to come.

Although it is known that several fields will remain open for discussion like climate, energy and water shortage, food, natural calamities, proliferation of weapons, crisis management, UN reforms, etc…

After the approval of the financial reform by the US houses, it is expected that the administration will divert partial stimulus to introduce incentives for connected startups, facilitate the creation of green collars jobs, elaborate a plan for the debt reduction, reduce income tax, introduce an incremental durable goods VAT taxation, allow further immigration and transform public waste into wealth.

Looking behind us into October 2008, I can calmly say that we might not be out of the woods yet, but definitely we are not heading into a double dip recession. The money available on the markets, the economic steps mentioned above will be sufficient in the coming semester to absorb the volatility and transform it into a steady recovery.

This will bring us to focus on the area stretching from China to Portugal where the US grand strategy acting as a ballerina, is trying to boost plans to end two conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, dissuade Iran from developing further destabilization, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict, ensure a smooth succession to the Egyptian “Rais” and entice Syria to adopt democratic stability through a positive and creative role in the Middle East.

Recent Israeli history is well known and its challenge remains to define a course that will generate and accomplish a long term vision of coexistence and acceptance.

Israel is caught between pursuing the policy of settlements to increase its demographic density, its strength, its liberty and the impending necessity to tutor its security and achieve peace with its neighbors.

 It is unfortunate that one to one meetings with President Mubarak did not lead to an effective path. But it is fortunate to expect his heir to be his son in leading stability in the lands of the Pharaohs.

In my view there should be a phased vision for Federal Palestine to be declared, where at first the demilitarized state of the West Bank (98 % of 1967) will go solo in 2011 with its capital Ramallah.

Gaza can follow in 2013 and then the remaining issues such as Jerusalem, final borders, refugees and defense will be looked at successively.

Failure to frame the declaration of the West Bank independence together to the indictment of the Lebanese STL will be the trigger for the upcoming clean-up in Lebanon.

Our hope was that an American wish list coupled to an agreement with the IRGC could reinforce the security and modernity of the Middle East.

In fact from the prism of profit and loss, our recommendation was to put in place a build up coupled to strong sanctions leading the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus negotiate the terms of its surrender.

In truth this is the best option to reach out to the Iranian mainstream and to exert a soft approach enforcing security in the Persian Gulf.

The coming trimester is pivotal as it may reveal an Iranian intransigence, reflected by flare ups in Iraq, Afghanistan or Lebanon.

Our forecast was to see a Broadway or West End diplomacy in July, leading to a collective peace, but the calculations of chancelleries are different, therefore the audience of observers was offered a meager “Freikeh” Festival, leading definitely to Pax Riduttiva or WAR in other terms.

The wishful thought was to invite Syria to an international conference based on the return of Golan as per Hoff where a gradual withdrawal will be exchanged for full normalization. However the prevailing reality check is that until Syria will demonstrate to steer its direction towards innovation, creativity and democratic stability it can not be judged a credible counterpart in a peace process. Rather it will always be the “wasting power”, holding a territory and a population without exerting a corresponding positive influence. Two main indicators can reveal a new direction, a plausible monetary agreement between Lebanon and Syria where a unified currency will be put in place within five years, and a visit of the Syrian foreign minister to Bkirki to take place in August.

As it is expected, Lebanon will be the theater through which the IRGC will be forced to negotiate its own surrender. From here it is unavoidable that the upcoming War will lead to the Pax Riduttiva we are all longing for. In presence of continuous Hizb rigidity and bad intentions a major Israeli air/land military campaign in the first days of September, brokered by global/regional and local powers will destroy all Hizb assets and clean up Lebanon in preparation for Peace.

Syria showed good intentions so far and I am confident it will tutor its interests by distancing itself further from the Iranian guards and by securing the Golan restitution in future negotiations. Syria can expand its influence by working on a common currency with Lebanon/Jordan and Iraq from one side, and from another by respecting Lebanese independence and ensuring a security valve on Lebanese borders to boost regional security and tourism.

It was thought so far by Oxford think tanks that developing Israeli capabilities will augment the chances of an attack against Iran, yet a different view tells us that the success of an Israeli clean–up in Lebanon will be sufficient to convince the IRGC to negotiate with the US its own surrender or to perish under the Iranian mainstream.

Both Iraqi and Afghan theaters will benefit and this will contribute decisively to end the two wars conduced by the US and to support the economic recovery.

“ A stable equilibrium rests on competing powers with principles and a valuable strategy for peace”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour