OIL @ 250 or the only option today?

November 22, 2013

United States

United States (Photo credit: Moyan_Brenn)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

“The experience of “beauty” often involves an interpretation of some entity as being in balance and harmony with nature, which may lead to feelings of attraction and emotional well-being. Because this can be a subjective experience, it is often said that “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Wikipedia

It is a source of comfort that the negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, will set a comprehensive agreement as a new objective.

The interim deal concept is wrong and it was generating much instability, whatever its nature could be.

This instability was likely leading to a unilateral Israeli decision, that would have as side effects a direct confrontation between Iran, Iraq and KSA, sending Oil prices to 250 $.

In fact the interim deal brokered by Russia, would disrupt the US strategy in the ME applied for decades, sending Oil prices to skyrocket and disrupting supplies as per Iranian/Gulf Monarchies clashes.

I am happy though that we saved the USA twice, the first time by trading the attack on Syria with the CW dismantlement keeping in place the objectives of building on Geneva 1, with a transitional government in Syria without Assad. And the second time by trading the interim deal with a strategic comprehensive agreement to be discussed, yet as per the vision already enunciated on the pages of this same blog.

In my view, considering the shrinking population and working force in Russia, and adding the OIL and Gas exports contribution to the GNP, we can easily understand how an interim agreement will be in the best interest of Russia mainly, more than any commercial deal thought by western corporations.

Above all the US administration should also consider that an interim deal would have thrown Gulf Monarchies and Israel alike, in the hands of China which is a great power, suffering a major economic setback from high Oil prices.

The interim deal could blow the US policy of an Asian/Pacific pivot before it takes the required contour, by opening a massive Chinese network in the Mediterranean. The US would have lost its queen in the first openings of the Chess pacific pivot.

From above we can easily realize that while Russia and China will benefit from the interim deal, in different manners, the US would need to deploy costly assets to adjust for a Status- Quo ante, a Dietro – front futile and unnecessary in all cases.

So here comes the Global/US interest in pursuing a comprehensive agreement with Iran, within 3 months, and failure to do this will portray the US in a plan B consisting of further tightening of harsh sanctions.

The only option today is to amplify the diplomatic reach for 3 months until end of February, in a strong desire to achieve a comprehensive agreement.

The beauty of life .

Life is a characteristic that distinguishes objects that have signaling and self-sustaining processes from those that do not, either because such functions have ceased (death), or else because they lack such functions and are classified as inanimate. “ Wikipedia

Thank You,

.

 

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Geneva 2

September 30, 2013

Russia-487

Russia-487 (Photo credit: didkovskaya)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Today is the end of September and looking back to the first days of this month, we can easily say, that the sequence of events linked to the ME was definitely rapid.

In an effort to help on the Syrian crisis to be defused, and in order to identify an acceptable route map for a new Syria to kick start; an enormous contribute is necessary, to transform the conflict, in an opportunity of peace keeping, and nation building.

I tend to believe that a good preparation for Geneva 2 will reveal important for world powers, to avoid failure or a scenario of repeated conferences or hostilities leading nowhere.

Looking into the history of some past conflicts we can to some extent, deduce some teachings, which can lead us to say, that perhaps we are approaching an important stage in the conflict resolution in Syria.

Observers are likely to explore the Geneva 2 conference to understand its contour before the meetings debut.

Some experts might create scenarios and simulate negotiations that will trace itineraries which will possibly be implemented.

In truth many questions to be posed will require a historic background in international conferences, a profound understanding of the Syrian nation/ state and the complexity of international, regional and local interests involved.

The fluid Syrian panorama includes important aspects for many players such as Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, ISIL, FSA, USA, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, KSA etc…

In my understanding the conference to start, will need at least, a definition of its components, an agenda even if subject to changes and finally a date or a calendar of dates.

The participants in the conference will presumably be: the UN, the Arab League, the Red Cross, Refugees Agencies, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, the EU, Russia, Germany, France, UK, US, China and of course a delegation of the Assad regime willing to safeguard what remains of the Syrian State and a delegation of the Syrian revolution preferably at least five members including women, having all equal say and headed by the designated pm dentist from Deir el Zor).

The agenda will include a variety of topics obviously, from security to politics, yet what all analysts expect is an immediate cessation of hostilities coupled to immediate release of all prisoners.

Once the cease fire is in place and work to destroy the CW program and stockpile will be in progress and ongoing, parallel talks will move forward to define the transitional phase and what can be expected of it.

It is understood that Assad will remain in office, only until the presidential mandate expiry, and that the CW destruction will be put on a solid and irreversible track by then.

I forecast the conference to be called by mid December, and the cessation of hostilities and prisoners release to be declared and achieved by the end of the year.

The major political issues, will be dealt with, once, confidence building and good-will measures will be implemented. And this can take off from January 2014.

It is expected that the outcome of Geneva 2 will be an agreed transitional cabinet, which will include representatives of the different components, of the opposition and of the institutions of the Syrian state.

The transitional cabinet will replace the president at the expiry of the mandate to fill the gap.

It goes without saying that the most inner Assad clan, cannot be included in any future formula, hence talks will focus on the transition; and on how to represent the collective Syrian population, in a system that will ensure a modern state and universal rights in a homegrown equation that will guarantee peace and prosperity.

In the coming months, international powers have all interest to persuade Assad, not to stall the CW disarmament process and to desist from the mortal pursue of a new mandate.

This time frame until April or May will be useful to set a path of negotiation with Iran meanwhile, and to prepare the stage for a possible Geneva 2 failure.

The price of failure will be very high to bear; in fact this can easily lead to a reprisal of confrontation in June, where F 35 jets will make their opening in a theater of conflict, in case CW stalling tactics are evident by Assad.

Whenever Assad will ease on CW program but will try to keep his positions on the rest, it is plausible to determine that  flare ups of belligerent acts will be witnessed in new round of hostilities.

The importance of Geneva 2 is equal to the Madrid conference, where multilateral talks started and led to a framework useful for Arab countries to approve the declaration of Beirut.

Geneva 2 is a multilateral forum that will mark the future of Syria and will draw parallels with the Iranian file, and the positive role this nation can play as a regional power.

The state of Israel will inevitably consider all this, and realize how delicate and intricate will be for the US to conduct a diplomatic and consequential path on both the Syrian and Iranian tracks.

From above I am convinced that the coming winter months, will see a very acute phase of negotiations, although it is necessary to be cautious in raising expectations.

Thank you,

 


At Large

September 23, 2013

OpenStreetMap Logo

OpenStreetMap Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the results of the German elections, a cabinet sponsored by a grand coalition can be envisaged, where the winning party will form the cabinet together to Social Democrats and the Greens.

 

Two of Europe’s biggest industries will be having a similar government (Italy and Germany) working on compromise to define a better policy for progress.

 

In Italy the cabinet will need to put through a policy to target the public debt and unemployment, or else a new election will be looming.

 

While in Germany the compromise will be, to achieve a smart energy policy coupled to an infrastructure investment, and a minimum wage adjustment that will not negatively influence exports.

 

Compromise is the essence of government, as multiple interests often collide and impede the civil society to act in dynamics that represent only one actor. The role of politicians is to mediate and to find solutions, and whenever they fail, as in Lebanon presently the interests of the collectivity will be endangered.

 

The hope for Lebanon in light of the Iranian charm offensive is to form a cabinet soon that will tackle major issues such as; neutral stance, dilution of the bifurcate divergence into a colorful and multifaceted cooperation, economic recovery, social crisis, security environment, strategic depth, constitutional reforms, start ups and job creation.

 

Definitely the challenge for the US in view of the looming deadline of the new fiscal year is to find a line of balance, where a reasonable raise of the public debt will be approved, together to an adjustment in expenditure in the federal budget that will not nullify food stamps.

 

It goes without saying that the market already accepted lady vice chairman, as a successor to Mr. Bernanke, where a predictable and gradual taper will be applied starting October, in an attentive effort to gather a pace between national interests “at large” and international markets performance.

 

As already described in a previous contribute, the national interests in our modern era are better defined “at large”, rather than in a thin prism of local and condensed view. The collectivity belonging to any nation is better served, whenever a wise and methodical process of understanding, is applied to geography, history, economics and to the international dynamics.

 

Analysts are elaborating about the last Russian diplomatic approach to the Syrian CW, the effective resolution of this file peacefully and the ramification of a political solution. It is reasonable to expect inspectors to arrive in Syria by the end of October, and that the process of political negotiation will begin in January, based on the principle of a new Syrian national accord that will pave the way for a transitional government.

 

The upcoming three months might reveal pivotal for the life line extended by the Iranian Republican Guards Council & the Supreme Leader, to the new Iranian president. Observers are considering that Mr. Rouhani doesn’t have much time ahead and that his space to maneuver is limited. I tend to differ on this, simply because the new president is the only asset in place for the option of a negotiated approach, that will avoid the climate of confrontation, be it through sanctions or a military engagement.

 

Hence I consider the Iranian president there to stay for long inn diplomacy and therefore the investment on shaking hands with him is not sufficient. The US approach should be, as a hosting player to the UN forum, to deliver much honor and welcoming.

 

I consider that in this particular momentum in international relations there are no two nations on earth that can benefit more from a rapprochement more than Iran and the US.

 

The principle to be enunciated is to accept the peaceful nuclear research in Iran as per international protocols, while ensuring the security of the state of Israel unconditionally, to permit this state to eliminate its own WMD, once peace treaties are in place accepting Israel as a final nation.

 

There is a concrete possibility that the decade 2014-2024 will be of enormous enhancement for the living conditions in the ME, where negotiations will succeed to deliver.

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


National Interest old and new

September 16, 2013

150 px

150 px (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“No matter whether a victory or a peace agreement terminates the civil war, it has to be decided, which demands of the parties to the conflict are to be implemented partially or completely. Post-civil war orders institutionalize these decisions and differ in the respective extent they realize only the demands of one side or balance the competing claims.” One-sided or balanced: Which post-civil war order secures the intrastate peace?  Prof Margit Bussman.

In an effort to put forward a better understanding, of global affairs and international relations, without doubt, the framework agreed upon between the US and Russia vis a’ vis the Syrian chemical file, represents a precious sample to discern.

Academics will examine thoroughly the various phases that led to the framework, and will write about this cornerstone in diplomacy, on which a geopolitical edifice of balancing interests in the ME can take shape.

It is understood that a US/Russian draft will be sent to the OPCW and followed up by a UNSC resolution that will technically accelerate the rhythm of the international control on Syrian CW. This endeavor is immense and necessitates a major support from all thinkers, although this agreement can be exploited by the Assad clan to stall and gain time.  In practice a process started and it will move forward until the accomplishment of the mission.

The agreement by itself is not a political solution, but an intermediary step to pave the way for a platform to become visible where a compromise of sort can be declared to tutor the Syrian population for the coming decades.

An international forum such as Geneva 2 is the only way to determine a Syrian political solution, and this in principle will call for the establishment of an inclusive national conference, to write a new constitution and submit it to a referendum. Afterwards a transition government can call on local elections and general elections.

The mechanism of power sharing as much as institutional checks and balances should consider the delicate balancing of minority rights and the territorial devolution and also the federal spending concept.

We all know that drought in North East Syria was a main problem as much as the true representation of clans and tribes, or other communities in the governance system, was a fireball, that the regime of Assad couldn’t handle.

In truth to persuade the collectivity and steer it during Assad son regime, a nuance of modernity and progress in some universities was applied but the old rhetoric of propaganda never evolved.

Where Assad failed to introduce reforms, a new Syrian state can only allow a flexible administrative and fiscal maneuver by some territories as a possible solution. The laic nature and the equity of the Syrian state will be the essence of the accord.

I am sure that the appropriate momentum for an accord is close even though all players should assume a different attitude. We know that Assad son has no place in the future of Syria, he killed enough people and we also know that the Alawite community will be in Syria forever.

We know that Mr. Putin is not willing to act as a sponsor to depose Assad but we also know that he will not oppose a solution where the balancing interests of the powers involved will be guaranteed.

This brings us to understand what are the Russian national interests and those of the US, furthermore to mirror the concept of national interest.

It is a fact that the elements of national interest in the era where planet earth goes global, are difficult to decipher. Since the inception of the nation/state until the Second Gulf War passing by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and by several economic challenges, the determination of national interest evolved within certain dynamics and metrics; but could not project the geopolitical thought beyond national boundaries.

Think tanks and Centers do require from analysts and collaborators to contribute in terms of advancing a national interest.

Perhaps policy makers are not attentive that there is no more national interest as it used to be.

The last episode of the agreement between the US and Russia is evidence, where isolationists and globalists in the US were diametrically opposed.

National interest used to project in international affairs an old mantra, and it used to represent a sphere of conformity, nowadays the national interest projects a balancing act between a group of entities be these nations, groups, corporations, banks or else. Hence the sphere is fashionable, colorful, sometimes opposed by the mob as unacceptable.

Examples of national interest chapters abound from the Iranian nuclear industry, to the Venezuelan oil industry, to the Russian gas industry, to the Chinese tech industry, to the German automotive industry.

The challenge of the new national interest and the modern grand strategy is that they create a new environment where the citizen is not ready yet to follow as much as institutes or thinkers alike.

Arms sales, Organic food, water and perishable or toxic items are examples of global interests where the citizen has much at risk and is behind in understanding.

The gap is between the CITIZEN who acquired technology and “whatsup” like, models of communication, social media “facebook” happenings; and between the INSTITUTIONS in control of the minutes.

The Snowden Case is the iceberg of the gap.

Efforts to bridge the international citizenry on a global scale are in place, where hundreds of directors in trillion dollars funds do elaborate development policies for new products and new markets.

Not always this mission is successful and episodes can compromise the peaceful environment and generate misgivings, qualms and worries.  From above we can realize that only a free flow of information and an immense monitoring of information are intertwined for the best advancement of humanity.

What is needed is a deep reflection of sort on the meanings of the citizen, the state, the nation and earth in an era of rapid inventions and fundamental changes.

“Information flow in an information theoretical context is the transfer of information from a variable xto a variable yin a given process. Not all flows may be desirable.” Information theory, Wikipedia

May a balanced peace take place in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Iran, Tunisia, Sudan, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and others, a regional national interest for the global citizen.

Thank you,

 


The Age of Phantom Diplomacy

September 11, 2013

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63.

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“…in the newly minted “field” of public diplomacy – a hybrid “discipline” that draws upon the social sciences, journalism, foreign language and cultural expertise. Public diplomacy is foremost a skill, like it or not, that is most effectively learned from practitioners and best acquired on the job”.

It is unprecedented in international affairs to witness such a velocity in current diplomatic happenings.

Perhaps we should call it the Age of phantom diplomacy.

Can this rapidly evolving international diplomatic climate represent a promise for a political platform in Syria or it will pave the way for military escalation?

We know that the floated Russian proposal related to the Syrian chemical weapons was welcomed by the Syrian dictator, however we still lack any detail of implementation as per Russian agenda and desire.

We know also that the draft resolution submitted by the French for consultations at the UNSC was already declined in its form by the Russians, and this leaves the international community in apprehension, as chancelleries are wondering if and when there will be a deal .

We know also that the US president in his address yesterday to the US nation stressed the importance to keep the credible military threat vivid underlining the necessity of American unity behind the strike, while giving priority to diplomacy to exhaust its energy and set a course .

We know also that on Thursday the US and Russian secretaries of state will meet.

What we ignore from all above is how the Syrians will come clean, by their acceptance of the Russian proposal, and how their tactics to stall will be deployed on the international arena, at least to have a benefit, for next year’s presidential elections in Syria. In truth the dictator will do all possible to gain a new mandate, without introducing any reform to the system, to become parliamentarian or reinforce the rights of different communities, by sharing governance and distributing on equal demographic and geographic basis, the national resources.

Nonetheless, analysts do expect a strong resolution authorizing international forces to account for, control and destroy the  storage, and all other facilities including questioning of the scientists.

Analysts expect also the Syrian criminal regime to immediately publish a list of sites , of quantities , of delivery weapons , of laboratories; and of scientists working on the chemical storage. This will go in tandem with the authorization of unfettered access of international monitoring to the CW storage in multiple sites and to laboratories declared or suspected.

Analysts do expect also that perpetrators of Chemical crimes will be brought to justice. They also expect the US and allies to keep the credible military threat coupled to enforcing a rational and secure UN mechanism to destroy CW.

It is obvious that the congress will remain seized on the issue while working also on the agenda of big issues, deficit, debt-ceiling, immigration, sanity, taxation, FED nominee, etc.

US Lawmakers in their multiple responsibilities, should express their stands on behalf of their constituencies and simultaneously create unity for national security issues.

It goes without saying that the resolute stand of the US administration is one of the main reasons for the dramatic and accelerated Russian proposal.

Although we ignore the details of the conversation between the two presidents and who was present during the meeting, which was previously canceled for the Snowden case, our desire is that this Russian proposal, will be entrusted and followed up by a political breakthrough.

It is a matter of fact that interests can intersect or diverge, The US and Israel have a common interest to destroy the Syrian chemical arsenal, while the Russians and Syrians have an interest, to renew the Syrian presidential mandate and set a different strategic balance not resorting to Chemical balance.

The question posed is how many civilians will die more in Syria waiting for a true solution?

In truth what is presented for now is interesting yet partial, it might take out the chemical arsenal to be replaced by other armaments; but it will not reform the Syrian system nor will ensure universal rights for the citizens. This intersection can be effective for international powers and for the security of Israel but in the same time, it can be not, for the rights of the people, to express itself, and this is what all the Syrian crisis is all about.  Hence my perception is, that a partial proposal will prolong the agony of the Syrian state, keeping in place a dictator who plays by some norms, while crossing others and this is the lesser evil for chancelleries.

Looking from another prism we can say that Assad son dispersed the legacy of Assad father.

He was responsible for the security when Hariri was killed, and he consequently lost full control in Lebanon.

He was in charge of Syrian reforms when the revolution started, and he lost the monopoly of coercion and the territorial integrity.

He was the ultimate custodian of CW when these were used, and he is about to lose the storage and alter the strategic balance for long pursued by his father.

In the effort to govern and implement his policies Bashar Assad overestimates his own strength, and in practice he enlarges favors to Israel and the US as nobody else. So why change him? He cuts deals favoring others and applies policies that deteriorate the national interests of his own collectivity.

The involvement of Hezbollah by the Syrian regime is to be traced in the policies that will eventually weaken the entire arsenal of Iran in the area, as much as the immediate acceptance of the Russian offer by the Syrians was either an indirect hit to Iranian soft power, or an opening for further developments on the Iranian file.

In the negotiation between Russia and the West for the Syrian crisis, regional powers have a lesser say, therefore the mechanism for a deal should have different considerations not only linked to the short run.

The lessons that can be learned by Hezbollah is that interests can shift and that having a line of supply through Syria, doesn’t justify its own intervention in Syria or the derailment of the political and security environment in Lebanon.

Hezbollah an Iranian proxy has now a multiple usage, a multilateral action, in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. It will not exit the Syrian trap and will never tend a helping hand to the pm designate to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource.

As any delay to form the cabinet in Lebanon, will cause Lebanon more losses and will generate a high risk for the essence of the national interests, the main responsible for the present idle situation at this stage are only the pm designate and the Lebanese president.

Both Mr. Michel Suleiman and Mr. Tammam Salam are requested to proceed urgently to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource. Failure to do so will widen the gap of the institutions with the people, and will only increase the area of operation of independent militias.

The Syrian crisis today is focused on the control of the CW, but we all know that this is a door that can well open into a limited political breakthrough or deteriorate into a military action.

How will Bashar trust to defend his crimes while his chemical dent will be destroyed?

Most likely a tactic of delays and stalling will be soon evident and my forecast is that the Russian proposal will continue to be exploited to gain time, which is precious for all actors to apply their own policies and exert pressures.

Although the proceedings in the congress for approval of military strike will proceed in parallel with the Russian proposal, my assessment is that the mechanism for CW control and dismantlement is extremely complex.  By itself the game of the nations is extremely cynic and treacherous.  The result for now is that military action can be undertaken only after the UN general assembly and the German elections.

Meanwhile the FED will have announced its gradual and predictable tapering to start in October by founding very likely only 78 Billion dollars, and this is a balanced step to safeguard the monetary and reserve problems of India, Turkey, Russia and Brazil.  Isn’t this process a responsible US international attitude of governance?

Perhaps Isolationists will realize what a connected world is, where Russia is projecting a perception of pseudo grandeur while the US is mastering the initiative and the tempo.

How win-win for all in the era of phantom diplomacy is based on the pillar of human loss?

Politics at best. Where are China and Iran? Will there be a strike that might endanger Israeli and Lebanese lives?

“Political evolution, on the other hand, is located at the creative cutting-edge, where old problems are solved with new techniques or new forms of organization, and where new problems are brought under political control”  Peter A Corning , Synergy, Cybernetics and the Evolution of Politics.

Thank you


A Damascene Moon

September 4, 2013

Dear Reader,

Russia

Russia (Photo credit: ccchan19)

Greetings and Good Day,

“…. Wet moon on bluestem, if sound is enough. If sound is enough, trillium tryst. Mouth full of dark roses; if image is enough …”    James Henry Knippen ,  Moon.

Following the decision of the US president to define a resolved stand versus the Syria regime use of CW, analysts and think tanks are trying to figure out and forecast the upcoming phase.

We know that briefings are conducted at Capitol Hill and that lobbying is very effective, a vote will be cast next week seemingly.We know also that G 20 will gather in St Petersburg and that Mr. Putin today is trying to project a more flexible image, hiding behind sovereignty and international law.

We know also that Germany and France have much at stake to empower a European unified stand vis a’ vis the Syrian Crisis, by embarking Russia on board of the UNSCR seeking to define a political transition in Syria and ensure the universal rights of the people.

A question is a must to Mr. Putin: Does the sovereignty of Dictators principle supersede the Universal rights of the massacred populace? Can a nation state be within the UN criteria in presence of a chemical mass destruction of humanity which is against all UN metrics?

In truth Mr. Putin is a geopolitical hacker looking to gain profits all over, and now that the Gas industry in the US and in the Mediterranean are flourishing, Putin’s mantra to create the gas cartel evaporates.

International diplomatic efforts will still need to work closely and without fatigue to bring Russia on board, and the US ambassador in Moscow may be inviting with impunity Mr. Snowden to the US embassy for a chat.

Getting to the heart of the Syrian crisis, we know that a joint Israeli / US missile experiment was conducted yesterday and that military preparedness is on the verge.

While this phase is pretty much of professional diplomacy to garner support and to create the largest alliance possible, it is thought that there are some military certainties to be listed.

For one, my assumption is that the Syrian regime barracks and assets in and around Aleppo, which are surrounded by the opposition, will not be targeted during the US led strike.

By contrast the assets in and around Damascus are considered pivotal to degrade the regime, mainly the command centers, the military runways, the air defenses including radars and anti-aerial assets, and the units in charge for missile launching , conventional or not.

What will be required is that the US led strike, which is going to project an overwhelming fire power, reduces collateral damage on civilians to zero. 

My assumption is also that the Iranian regime will partially fight back, by
emboldening Hezbollah and authorizing it to engage Israel remotely, perhaps by launching some missiles from Syrian territory. As we know that the strategic role of Hezbollah for Iran, is to open a direct front in Lebanon with Israel, whenever military heat will be applied on Iran for the nuclear file.

Iran in front of an international coalition attack on Syria will presumably follow a dual path; it will support Assad partially, by allowing some sort of Hezbollah’s remote engagement with Israel. But it will also focus on a stop loss strategy, not to lose Hezbollah in Lebanon and keep this card at hand for the future nuclear confrontation.

What emerges is that the trap of Hezbollah intervention in Syria is going to play against Iran during the strike on Syria.

Obviously if the Iranians will decide to play a hard hand and open the Lebanese front, this will be met by an Israeli ground invasion, and I don’t see the military advantage of this scenario for the Iranians. Yet the IRGC might well think that it can re-arm Hezbollah and create an environment similar to 2006 in the aftermath of the strike, although the Syrian supply route will not be available anymore. 

Rational thinking says that the Iranians in front of a strike on Assad, conducted by a major coalition, should stop the loss and save what it can in the Lebanese theater in terms of political influence and/or military. However there are several variables, also in terms of Iranian internal and regional politics and the strategic decision to go nuclear.

The US administration did wisely so far to manage the situation and it has to continue to do so, step by step, garner support and enlarge the coalition, and prepare the national and international public for a strike that looms, against perpetrators of crime against humanity.

“… A Damascene moon travels through my blood, Nightingales . . . and grain…  and domes from Damascus, jasmine begins its whiteness, and fragrances perfume themselves with her scent…” Nizar Qabbani , A Damascene Moon 

Thank You

 

 

 

 


The Contribute from Lebanon

September 2, 2013

English: A volcano called Syria

English: A volcano called Syria (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good day,

 

“The art of beauty is the sober projection of a shared consensus”.

 

In his speech at the Rose Garden, the US president interpreted the global leadership spirit and the righteous geopolitical context.

 

The US administration’s collective opening salvo was excellent.

 

By seeking congressional approval and willing to enlarge the coalition to NATO and extra NATO members, the stature of a global vision is reinforced in the US administration.

 

Even if it is true that the pacific, will be important in the coming decades, and preparations are in process to place US assets in different countries to gain leverage in the Asian continent; it is also true that the Middle East is and will remain the fulcrum of politics and the corridor of energy.

 

If you don’t go to the ME, it will come to you.

 

China or Russia in any of their geopolitical moves will try ultimately, to ensure maritime control and to seek alliances in the ME, in order to become an uncontested leader among world powers.

 

So we can envision for now that, until the congress debate and vote and while the international final stand is being defined, a set of objectives need to be pursued.

 

While waiting for the UN report on the use of CW in Syria, the diplomatic objective should lobby for a UNSCR, that will ensure that Assad will be charged by crimes against humanity; and that he will never again threaten the Syrian people by any mean.

 

The UNSCR to be approved needs enormous lobbying versus Russia, and I encourage Prince Bandar to try again. It will also need British parliament rethinking next Sunday and the US congress to debate thoroughly and give full support to the president.

 

This resolution will call also for the implementation of an international conference to secure to the Syrian people the full spectrum of rights.

 

It will call also for the institution of an international force in Syria, of at least 20000 effective, needed for nation building efforts in Syria.

 

In the wide array of objectives, political ones also are tough.

 

Political objectives are to define a minimum common platform with international powers “y compris” Russia and China, for a peaceful transitional period in Syria, where Assad will leave and a new Syrian constitution will be put in place.

 

The Russian mantra consisting of the Syrian decision for their destiny is obsolete and was chemically destroyed by the regime itself.

 

Monitored, free and general elections will be the natural result of this political process.

 

Whenever diplomacy will fail again and politics will be idle, obviously there will be recourse to the last resort.

 

The US led military action, strong of a congressional and international support, will stir events in the direction of the termination of the civil war in Syria, to avoid further losses of human lives especially by chemical mass destruction weapons.

 

The strategic contour is clear and the stakes are very high, there is at play very much in terms of power and in terms of opportunities for the coming decades.

 

The US role in the world today and tomorrow, equally depends, on how it will exit the crisis in Syria as much as on economic recovery, internal reforms and debt reduction.

 

Considering also that, if you break it you own it, the international coalition will contribute in terms of a post- conflict stabilizing force, up to 25000 effective formed by, German, Polish, Japanese, Philippine, Swedish, French, Turkish, Moroccan and Indonesian troops; financed by gulf countries mainly by the KSA.

 

Talking about the military action, the window of time gained by the US president, (who has new cards: the initiative, and the tempo), will be required to deploy enormous military power and assets, in order to project unprecedented fire power when the momentum will come.

 

We know that the NIMITZ is being rerouted and this is great.

 

The International strike will definitely be after the g20, after the meetings at the UN, after the German elections and the vote in the congress.

 

Analysts will be watching the coming two weeks with interest, where planners will continue to position a wide variety of assets, to enable them project an overwhelming fire power never witnessed, in any previous conflict in the ME.

 

Whenever Assad will not leave before the zero hour, his fate is sealed by his own hands.

 

This window of time might induce Assad to commit new crimes to increment his culpability, but more important it shall be used to convince Syrian officers and ranks to defect.

 

Any attempt should be displayed, for Russia to be part of this international effort. The French president can take this task at heart.

 

Contingencies will be debated for a strategic and rapid action to annihilate Assad assets and simultaneously lessening his retaliation’s risks to almost a zero tolerance of losses, keeping a special eye on the chemical weapons and on the Lebanese theater.

 

Lebanon which is quasi hostage of Hezbollah will see Israel given free hand to take out Hezbollah military wing if the latter opens fire from Lebanese territory. Israel will be requested to safeguard Lebanese infrastructure and institutions.

 

Whenever Israel will terminate Hezbollah, Iran will remain solo. So What will Iran do?

 

Of course the implications of the Iranian role are to be carefully evaluated, simply because Iran’s IRGC will maneuver at best to maintain its regional assets, in a strategic scheme to become a nuclear new entry.

 

Therefore Iran is expected to enforce the stand of its satellites Assad and Hezbollah, by deploying assets.

 

The US President needs to act with grand tenor and grace, as wee know we will prevail.

 

Rational planning will carefully study sound risk calculation, fire power and righteous policies.              

 

Meanwhile the Fed will reunite, check on released economic data and decide to taper starting October.

 

Tapering will follow a mixed motion, from slow to rapid, as per the economic environment requirements and it will apply a flexible time range of 18 months approximately.

 

This contribute is from Lebanon, basin for more than a million Syrian refugees, and very seized on the actual geopolitical crisis.

 

Lebanon is a nation that will always be a staunch believer in liberties, coexistence and peace and a very close friend to the US.              

 

Lebanon dedicates this contribute to Aya the millionth Syrian refugee in Lebanon.  

 

“The energy of harmony fills the waves of colors and sounds”.   

 

Thank you