Lebanese Emergency Cabinet

August 25, 2012

English: Ruins in Tripoli, Lebanon.

English: Ruins in Tripoli, Lebanon. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“There is no major drama, than the culture of self defeatism”

It is almost certain that the US, China and the EU are heading to a monetary easing, to stimulate their economies and this is very likely to be announced starting by the end of August.

QE3 in the US should be focused on job creation hopefully, and if coupled with a simple and low fiscal/taxation policy, then it will generate a great impact on other issues such as immigration, tourism and health.

In China the easing will wishfully focus on structuring the local market to enhance consumer spending and extending benefits to private companies, within an efficient national program to define an urban strategy of development.

In the EU it is clear that more time is needed by Greece to deliver and bridge the balance gap, and time has to be given within a frame of adherence to a monthly basket of indicators for progress.

This is to be accompanied by as much as two impending bailouts to Spain and Italy, to be extended by the ECB as per a route of political and economic reforms in both Latin nations.

Definitely the economic dire straits will not render life easy also in emerging markets; therefore we can expect a hard work for the IMF all over the planet.

Where debt is flooding governments, national policies and defense strategies are becoming blurred, in fact it is not clear how a cultural civilization will expand, without a significant program of sustaining local projects by dedicated funds.

Hence the crisis of the global powers is evident.

In the specifics we do see a materialization of failure in tackling major issues, Syria, Iran and other nations.

While world powers are realistic in proceeding with their trade, they confirm their disagreement on geopolitics.

The battle is for control of energy routes and for balancing power projection.

Considering the most pressing issue Iran, in terms of altering the actual status quo, I think that once the entire build up of western forces is in the Gulf and the Mediterranean, the solo attack can be conducted any time.

We do know that the Syrian theater, as much as the Sinai supplies to Gaza are neutralized.

Therefore what is left is Syria’s missile and CBW capability and the Lebanese theater.

Lebanon is the only platform from where surface attacks can be launched against the Israeli state still at odds with its Arab neighbors unfortunately after more than sixty years of its inception.

The latest events in northern Tripoli are to be read in this direction. The Assad Clan is using Tripoli to divert attention and pressure from itself, but it can’t play a hard ball as this will add intricacy to Hezbollah military plans.

The Assad Clan needs to dose disorder in Tripoli, measured by its chances of survival, without affecting the Iranian game in Lebanon through its proxy Hezbollah.

Israel sees Tripoli as an opportunity that disorder will spread and the entire Lebanese theater will be neutralized, to ensure the smoothest retaliation to its solo attack .      

There are different options for the cedar nation to manage the crisis.

It can stand idle and see the conflict enlarged, it can be exploited by a number of security challenges weakening significantly the theater readiness, or it can lead the initiative.

How can the Lebanese state and army act to save Lebanon?

Can the state act in unison?

Even if the answer is no, I am convinced it is high time for Mr. Mikati to resign, or else Mr. Walid Jumblatt is required to save the nation by withdrawing his ministers and nullifying the cabinet.

What will follow will be an emergency cabinet, led by a former military, and composed by eight ministers.

Lebanon needs to realize that this is the truth hour, and there is need for a strategy of action.

What I recommend is to establish an emergency cabinet in one week time, to declare an emergency status, call up reserves, build up forces, and take over Jabal Mohsen.

Simultaneously and independently from Hezbollah presence, the army must take also control of all roads leading to the south and exert vigilance and full land control in the entire south for at least 3 months.

Lebanon can still save itself, if it acts today, failure to do so will consign to history an entire political establishment as the most deficient ever.

Let true patriots extract themselves from the axis of violence and destruction.

 “May light open all minds and may Lebanon embrace the destiny of prosperity and peace “.

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The cannons of September

August 8, 2012

English: Map of Caucasus, Asia Minor and Middl...

English: Map of Caucasus, Asia Minor and Middle East (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ a growing environment of distress will pave the way for a conflagration to happen, world powers should ready for crisis management”

While all analysts are expecting the upcoming easing to be announced by the FED and the ECB, all of them ignore how these steps will be modeled and shaped.

I tend to consider that the QE3 in the US should focus on providing money to startups and other companies willing to empower the private sector in employment.

Hence the amount of 500 billion can be divided into 3 tranches, 20 % for small medium sized start-ups spread on all the states, 45 % for existing companies with average EPS having plans to hire further and increase the human power, 35 % for big companies willing to restructure and invest further in assets of production.

As for the ECB, in my opinion the easing should be linked to a greater fiscal accord, where a transparent mechanism will transfer funds from a state to another as per requirement.

The ECB should be entitled to have a major role and exert its best options, to get the European countries out of the monetary bankruptcy or default.

The financial Masters of the Universe will handle the economic crisis for the best benefit, where Russian GNP is decreasing; Chinese manufacturing is accusing fatigue and Iranian Poultry industry is in the worst era.

Having a close look on the terrain, we can affirm that the rebels in Syria are exerting an incremental pressure on the Assad Clan, and their tactics of hit and run, or creating fronts, switching from insurgency to militia as per necessities are very clever.

Presently the Syrian theater weakened the Assad clan, even it must be held under scrutiny, enabling defections to proceed and control of more territory to move further.   

The political transition will start to be defined, and this doesn’t depend on the fate of Aleppo or other cities.   

Ultimately and eventually within some time, the demise of Assad will be achieved.          

I presume that shortly Turkey will establish a precedent in Syria where they will hold and release territories in the north as per their interests.

While it is understood that realism and idealism should find a common ground in the Middle East as vividly recommended by Mr. Kissinger, it is also a common wisdom that only facts on ground will define the outcome.

The IRGC is seeking to become a nuclear power, and the state of Israel will not permit this to happen.

The grand strategy in course will create the best environment for a solo attack on two sites in Iran to take place, while ensuring simultaneously the softest retaliation by Iranian military planners.

The most formidable armada and build up will be ready by the end of august, both in the Eastern Mediterranean and in the Gulf.

Whenever the axis of horror planners, will decide to unleash the beast, they can expect the harshest destruction of all their assets. Roles are already assigned between liberal powers.

In Lebanon, preferably a vote of confidence will bring the cabinet down, after the electoral frame was drafted by the cabinet. This will enact change in the political spectrum.

“ August is the time for holidays before the major geopolitical events of end September”

Thank you,   


Salahuddin

August 1, 2012

September

September (Photo credit: Helgi Halldórsson/Freddi)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“when complexity and intricacy is abundant, a careful planning and major preparedness are required to avoid small and big errors.”

As manufacturing is slowing in major powers including the US and China, central bankers are sharpening their policies to inundate markets with useful and apropriate easing.

It’s expected, that during August, activities will relent as tradition, waiting for September, where therapies will be devised.

As the war of intelligence is raging in the Middle East, from Damascus to Riyadh, to Sanaa, we can estimate that the standoff in Aleppo, will take some more weeks, as all parts are digging in Salahuddin and other districts.

Hopefully the rebels will concentrate and succeed to take more strategic locations in Aleppo, like intelligence offices and the military airport, without significant losses.

However, we can consider irreversible that the north and the northeast of Syria is not anymore in control of the Assad clan.

To move forward from now on, Deir Zor should follow suit and become independent, and there should be a descent towards Palmyra and a turning point in Deraa province, that we can forecast to take place in the coming weeks.

With Aleppo neutralized and other areas under effective control of the FSA, the Assad clan is no longer capable to supply Hezbollah and not even to open a front with Israel.

The Syrian transition cabinet will be somewhere defined and installed, and it is thought that this will take place in concomitance with a Turkish switch into operational mood entering and securing a 5 miles safe haven area inside Syrian territory along the borders.

The demise of Assad is a matter of time, and it will be achieved as per the interests of the solo attack and its consequences.  

August will pass by and in mid September the Pope will visit Lebanon, thus the Iranian gate will be widely open from 16 September onwards, any Thursday night.

3 am of September 28 seems the timing itself for the bombs touch down.

In fact after the end of the Olympic Games, the naval build-up in the Mediterranean and the Gulf will be completed, and major drone reconnaissance flights will be completed, as much as satellite data analyzed.

Contingencies are being drawn and updated continuously, yet as everyone knows, there is no plan that will be matched by the conduct of operations.

Military experts will do their job to implement the best environment, by deploying a powerful and flexible build up in place, in order to help impede any retaliation for the solo attack.

This attack which is unavoidable and certain, be it for the accelerating path of Iranian authorities to speed up the enrichment and by the reinforcement of the sites defenses, will always be subject to speculation until the last minute and to ups and downs in media outlets.

It goes without saying that paradoxically the interests of the US president to be re-elected and of the Iranian supreme leader to acquire the nuclear device are in convergence in their necessity for the time commodity.

It is very much unfortunate that even with the new sanctions announced, the supreme leader will not stop his efforts, hence the Jewish heritage having as ultimate custodian the state of Israel will act independently from any consideration.

The Grand Strategy implies that the solo attack opens the way for the rest of the chain of events, be them a domino effect or silence.

The Syrian theater is already neutralized; the Lebanese theater will be neutralized by a salvation cabinet and an independent stance of Mr. Nasrallah, who will be enticed to spare Lebanon and his organization full destruction by a dedicated effort of incentives and warnings.

Failure to comply by the leader of Hezbollah will bring on him the wrath of fire.

The IRGC will have two options either to remain silent and absorb the damage, or to succumb under a huge strategic bombing that will erase all its assets.

The paradoxically convergent interests of any US president and the Supreme Leader will persist after the solo attack, as the US policy of sanctions can proceed with further diplomacy to evolve the Iranian stance in upgrading the damaged sites to civilian usage, and the Supreme Leader will have secured by applying silence and absorption, few years to come in a covert effort to upgrade the damaged sites into a military usage.  

The cat and mouse game will have a revival, with a difference that the world will have gained a couple of years of time to deal with the nuclear impasse in Iran.

By contrast if a domino effect will be the reality, then a cease fire will be negotiated with very heavy impositions on the loser.

“Salahuddin is the standoff for the vision of peace and knowledge; it is the hammer for the statue of tolerance and acceptance”

Thank you,