Fatal Blow

July 19, 2014

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good day,

“A fatal blow is the hit that causes death, a coup de grace “

In a continuous effort to walk through world events, I will mention only, four major news that filled our screens in the last couple of days. Nuclear talks, Gaza, Lebanese state dissolution, and MH 17 downing.

The extension of nuclear talks between the P5+1 and the Islamic Republic until November 24 coupled to assets unfreeze of 2.6 Billion dollars, in its context indicates the willingness of world powers to continue talking, while simultaneously dragging into the process, without reaching any significant result. Freeze for unfreeze seems to be the formula of talks for talks where the financial masters of the universe are willing to extend a financial life aid to an overstretched Iran equivalent to 600 Million dollars per month to get a nuclear freeze in exchange. There are two opposed views, the first adopted by the Islamic republic establishment willing to expand enrichment in a 3 to 5 years time frame, possibly ending with a breakout of nuclear capability, and adding by this complexity to an already difficult Eurasian Theater. While the second view is to create a nuclear free zone in the Levant and the gulf in 30 to 40 years time frame, which is the best option for all the families living in the area. It goes without saying that one view excludes the other, and the US in its desire to support Israeli security fails to discern between normal relations with Iran and nuclear talks. In truth focusing only on nuclear talks will impede normalization to become a reality, hence subordinating the advancement in relations to a security topic. Exploring other development sectors becomes a necessity in realism. The magic formula can become Freeze (enrichment and centrifuges), Unfreeze (financial assets on monthly quota) and Develop (common projects), where develop will be key to accelerate toward convergence rather than divergence. We all know that Iranian geopolitics in the Levant are spreading a lot of instability and projecting a poor vision, lacking of respect for particular specifics of each reality. Yet this can only change, because radicals led by the supreme leader are incapable to express a model of successful governance and excel in an intellectual integrity, therefore the Iranian opposition is meant eventually to prevail.

However and while time passes by, all eyes are today on Gaza, where the 2012 cease fire is not holding anymore. In its miscalculation, Hamas is overestimating its own power and committing a major error in its calculus. In fact Hamas needs to come to table for an immediate cease fire, or else it will lose the political significance in the eyes of the Israeli establishment. Hamas at its beginning was facilitated by Israel to create a schism within the Palestinian factions, and that played well for Israel’s security for some years, the deeds are that the West bank is politically divided from Gaza and that no agreement is reached with a divided Palestine. The actual meaning of the flare up of hostilities is a major change in the status-quo, simply because Hamas lost its importance for Israel. What is expected is that as early as tomorrow Sunday the defensive edge will expand significantly and will evolve its objectives to become elimination of the political representation of Hamas in Gaza. While taking out tunnels, a naval commando will be lifted on the Gaza shore to assess where the command center is and erase it by intelligent and deep going bombs. Furthermore it is most likely that Gaza will be divided in two entities where Erez crossing will represent the interests of its north and Rafah crossing of its south. Israel knows very well that divide and conquer can yield temporary partial security, and that long term full security can be ensured only by agreements between strong states. The modeling of the new Middle East map will be based on Egypt, Turkey, the Islamic Republic, the Islamic State ( Syraq, Jordan, Palestine), the Gulf Federation, and the Lebanese Republic that will anchor the Syrian western coast. How this new map will rotate versus energy exploitation and infrastructure projects is yet to be seen.

A major sign of approaching of the moment of reckoning is that the Lebanese state is at its dissolution zenith. In his latest speech yesterday Mr. Hariri puts a rubber stamp on the Lebanese state incapability to evolve. Similarly the leader of Hezbollah is incapable to defend the state as he promises in his talkative shows, and all other politicians talking about fire or tempo for presidential election are accusing much fatigue and infertility to say the less.
The talks about the emission of a new EuroBond and the requirement of the ministry of finance to have a legislative session to authorize stipends spending, or other national security issues going from wages, tenants law, army capability and doctrine, electricity, state budget, unemployment, electoral law, state reforms to devolution, etc ; are only a confirmation of the confusion and full panic and hysteria in Lebanese governance.
Lebanon needs a lady president that implements radical reforms of the system, and limits the role of the political pirates and thieves including the Hariris, Aoun, Franjieh, Sanioura, Goubran Basil, Gemayels, Jounblat, Geagea and Hezbollah, His Corruption the speaker and all the rest of the cartels and the mafias, from oil, electricity to bankers and monopolies of trade and other filibusters of water and medicines.
Hence the president of vacuum and/or the president that will prolong this failed system are much about the same, two sides of the same coin, similar to Mr. Berri and to Mr. Hanna Gharib.
Lebanon most needs intellectual purity to declare a state of emergency in norms, ethics and values. The state is rotten and the nation is broken. The essence of the civil society is vilified, by sectarian divisions instated by feudal pirates having foreign allegiance, instead of being united behind secular terms leading to a Swiss model of presidential council with rotation, a strong army securing the land and the borders and a tiger economy spurring growth. Demographic/refugees problems and infrastructure detriment will add to the climate of insecurity if not solved with rationality. The lady president, who has a strong record in activism and reforms, and beyond all doesn’t belong to Lebanese historic insignificance since the independence, will need to grasp the geopolitical momentum , give a fatal blow to the old system, and be ready to step in for a new system and accountability.
The pirates need to have some rehabilitation and go to pension. These cartels of robbery and denigration must be put in jail, as they failed to create a peaceful society where truth flies supreme.

The downing of MH 17 is a blatant example of lateral consequences, where tragedy adds to the ignorance of politicians and failed chess masters a’ la Putin. Pressure will mount increasingly on the Kremlin for the lack to respect international norms abiding by Ukrainian aspirations for independence. This guy and his close circle of yes men are acting like thugs and ultimately they are not tutoring the principled interests of the Russian world. The Russian culture is liberal and advanced in its modernity of thought, and the oligarchs in power are leading the Russian flag into the mud. Unless dear monsieur Putin will not wake up from his long and dormant winter in sense making, I am afraid we will be witnessing an upscale in the confrontation, where every penny will be taken out the markets, impeding them to finance the Russian state in its effective needs to proceed with the shortsighted policy of an only oil oriented economy.

To end I will say that Chinese efforts to become a maritime power are most welcome, the great Chinese nation used to build enormous naval ships and roam the oceans, traveling the seas will widen the horizons and increase the interaction with the world. The Silent Service of US submarines will be escorting these efforts and ensure the peaceful character of the full cooperation between both nations.
Observers might be induced to hesitate about the course of world events, and undoubtedly there is a coming back in baking consequential policies, in the furnace of western geopolitical gusto.

“Strategic thinking is a mental process, at once abstract and rational, which must be capable of synthesizing both psychological and material data. The strategist must have a great capacity for both analysis and synthesis” General Andre Beaufre

Thank You,

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Open letter to Qassem Suleimani, Quds Force Commander

July 8, 2014

Dear Qassem,

Greetings and Good Day,

“When the sky is empty of peace, and the prevailing war, is tearing away your newborn’s eye, until the end of his life I grieve for your future, I grieve for the future.” Had the sky been blue? Rira Abbasi.

I traveled to Iran on several occasions and could only savor the best hospitality and the greatness of the population, a nation immersed in milk and honey, land for the brave soul.

Along its history, Persia developed acceptance with neighboring populations and it was distinguished in its desire for coexistence. The passage of different armies since Alexander couldn’t alter the infusion of time in the Iranian geography.

Is it the destiny of Tehran to encroach the mountain it lays on? Or it will expand the sand of thought into a development of trade and accomplishment of openness?

Let me help you Qassem as you are entrenched in different theaters, and your plans are not delivering the appropriate design. As usually plans do not correspond to the reality.
Perhaps Iranian modern history was marked by three major events, the coup orchestrated by the CIA/MI6, the Islamic Revolution advent and the energy/nuclear sector development.

However and most importantly in view of current regional multiple crisis in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Afghanistan , coupled to the deadline in nuclear talks on July 20, history is pushing again to mark Iran and put on it its own imprimatur. It is normal in the global arena to have friends and foes, and to have a vision and/or a lack of it, yet allow me to tell you that there is no leader today in Iran that can develop a concept of agile operations and responsiveness as you do Qassem.

Obviously I will not remind you of Beirut, Buenos Aires, India, Thailand or Burgos, but I will open your eyes to our today’s July 8th geopolitical challenge in Gaza, where Israel will position two whole IDF armored divisions right up to the Gaza border within 48 hours, waiting for orders.
Or shall I invite you to watch the video of Caliph Ibrahim in Mosul?

Qassem, responsiveness is absolutely a quality for field commanders, but you are also a thinker and a political soul, hence your patrimony and major asset today is to understand the importance of compromise to reach a deal.

In Iraq it is important to keep the nation united by a new policy of inclusiveness expressed by a new leader, be him Chalabi or Hakim, yet definitely no more Maliki. The soonest done, the best.

In Syria it is important to keep the nation united by a new policy of inclusiveness expressed by a new empowered PM that will conduct a transition for 4 years that will end by a presidential interruption; you can refer to a study on this https://www.norlarnet.uio.no/pdf/news/announcements/conference_2009_presentations/leiv_marsteintredet_paper.pdf . The soonest you do this the best.

In Afghanistan as you know a scandal is coming up in the ballots where the candidate Abdullah already refused the preliminary results; and the July 22nd date for final results, might well bring another area of instability next to Iranian borders.
Good times passed when Iran cooperated with the US to secure Afghanistan. Are those days gone Qassem? You know that the shortest way for US troops to withdraw from Afghanistan is through Iranian territory, why you shouldn’t pick up this opportunity?

In Lebanon there is a presidential vacuum, and you know very well that your puppeteers will not be elected, as Lebanon needs a reformist president who will pave the way for a Swiss model although imperfect to prevail. Lebanon a land dominated by pirates can’t wait long before major security challenges threaten the entirety of the reigning formula. Trust me if you don’t work with me to reform, your partners will be the losers, and if you need a name to start with, you can google, “Nadine Moussa for presidency 2014” on FACEBOOK. The soonest …, the best.

Yesterday the Supreme Leader announced he trusted that the team in Vienna will defend the nation interests! Oh really? Are Iran’s interests in nuclear development and international defiance or to join regional peace efforts and develop a conference for peace with all players similar to the Conference de Paris?
Qassem, I hope you are aware about Convergent Technologies, Dual-Use Weaponry and the Global Balance of Power, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?ots591=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4&lng=en&id=181142

Iran survived history and it will do so again, it is not nuclear Iran that spurs power to your great nation, it is your own people, human coexistence, universal rights and a positive dualism leading to an effective pursue of the truth by technology and science approach.

Opposition is very consequential to the cause of justice, and your vision must be inclusive to your opponents, this is about leadership.
Leadership Qassem, is to express guidance for all the peoples, I know that you are facing many powers and that you suffered an unjust war with Iraq, but now you need to express your independent views and the rule of Persian narrative as a partner for peace, not as a commander in war with a perpetual enemy.

When you hit a wall Qassem, you can always recur to the bargain, don’t be a merchant, but be a leader of international stature.
Develop your vision, and impress with your talent in peace keeping and nation building.

I won’t take any more of your time, next Sunday we will watch the soccer finale, by then I hope you will come up with something. Kindly accept my letter as a strong gesture, where I tend my hand to you.

Failure to indicate the way, the Iranian way for peace, will bring alternatively only one thing; unfortunately war.

Think Qassem, think.

“Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and right doing there is a field. I’ll meet you there.
When the soul lies down in that grass, the world is too full to talk about.” ― Rumi

Thank You,


The Indispensable nation

July 5, 2014

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ When one fled past, a maniac maid, And her name was Hope, she said: But she looked more like Despair; And she cried out in the air; “ The Masque Of Anarchy – Percy Bysshe Shelley.

In an effort to understand the dynamics of global current affairs, it is commonly accepted to focus on challenges and situations as a short way to define policies and options.
Resolving international or regional crisis is part of effective governance, while planning and implementing rational policies, constitute another significant part.
Whenever we have a close look to the world today, we can notice China’s anti corruption and assertive sea measures, we can also notice the newly pronounced on July 1st Russian world doctrine of Mr. Putin, and ultimately a spread in lack of quorums stretching from Baghdad to Beirut as a cross boundaries Ebola.
Observers are usually used to interpret finance/energy/food/water agreements as a prelude for a better understanding of the decades to come. Interests fly supreme and often in sharp contrast, for instance Uzbekistan is being isolated from the electricity grid of “ Khuzestan” (the Caliph Ibrahim will be happy by this designation), while Bulgaria is being integral part of the South Stream gas line reaching Vienna and south Italy.
We know that Nabucco pipeline will not materialize, but we also know that a new route from Kirkuk to Eilat, passing by Ceyhan and Ashkelon is running.
In the effort of the Zionist project to divide and conquer the Middle East, Kurdistan and “Alawistan” represent two pillars in the new map. The financial masters of the universe while supporting the Zionist projects fail to consider the long term vision and the true interests of the state of Israel and I will elaborate.
Figuring out the geopolitical deadlocks, we can easily spot the Donbas in Ukraine, the Raqqa/Ninewa in the Syraq theaters, and Gaza strip in the Isra/line theaters.
We know that the Dow reached 17000, that Europe is trying hard to defeat deflation, and that Japan is having a positive momentum coupled to partnerships with India and Australia. What remains to be seen is how China will express its own rise in the decade to come until 2025.
Unavoidably China needs to continue its transit from Qing Empire, to modern nation, up to world economic leader. In order to do so, it needs to consider the traditional role of the US as guardian of the maritime order that followed WWII and also the US recently envisioned Asian pivot in terms of placing military assets and hardware in different countries in the Asia Hemisphere. China’s future stands in the vision to elaborate a new doctrine of the seas based on a joint combination, a multifaceted tandem with the WEST. Since the McCarthy mission to China the cooperation is net to reveal itself on the world stage as a “Realpolitik” requirement.

“Given that the Asia-Pacific is where the interests of China and the United States intertwine the most, the drill also shows that, though the two countries differ on certain issues, they have been making concrete steps toward building trust.” http://eng.mod.gov.cn/DefenseNews/2014-06/26/content_4518701.htm

So in the era of border changes, energy requirements, demographic trends and food needs, the colonial centennial order is faltering in the ME, while the schism of terrain couldn’t yet express a clear distinction, between federal states, regions, nations and powers. A geopolitical earthquake is moving bottom up and sustaining this immense change is ironically the oil trade between Assad and ISIS.
Lebanon the “Indispensable nation” is torn apart by embezzlement, cartels, mafias, pirates, mismanagement, corruption and a RESISTANCE incapable to protect the state in these dire moments. The pirates in power could deliver so far only a sectarian divide along which the populace is better described and foreign powers better served. Lebanese political pirates are treating issues of national security with insufficiency; topics of primary importance are being diverted into vested interests of the cartels. Tenant’s law, wages, university nominees, public administration, devolution, refugees, energy, water, electricity, army, order, economy, education, terrorism, law, justice and reforms, all are being blinded by the pirates serving themselves and paying tributes to their foreign masters.
The indispensable nation is in dire need of true leaders of international caliber, capable to express foreign policy that affirms the role of Lebanon to be the Chef of the regional cuisine in International relations. To do so Lebanon must start by electing a new president, approving a new electoral law, introducing reforms a’ la Suisse model and recuperate lost terrain in regional peace and cooperation. The Lebanese third republic is obligatory as much as a deal between Iran and the P5+1 is likewise. In a recent article two thinkers expressed their view about a Maginot line in nuclear negotiation, and in an effort on helping the negotiation to succeed we need to consider that within the 50 years vision to have a nuclear free zone, it is pivotal to live the next ten years in peace possibly.
In truth while I am convinced that the interests of the state of Israel are to kick start a bilateral negotiation with Iran to free the area from nuclear weapons, I tend to consider that this long term objective is difficult to attain shortly. Therefore and based on this consideration the positioning of the nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 need to dose well at least 3 phases.
The phase one is where Iran will have an acceptable and limited margin for research and enrichment while keeping short at least one year from breakout capability; phase two is to anchor Iran within the regional context based on economic/energy/resources synergies, and finally the phase three where Israel and Iran should get together and free all of us from the nuclear threat.
Unless a war is in the making, an extension in negotiations to January 2015 is not only plausible but also substantial and consequential even if coupled to a lot of pressure in several theaters, ISIS advance on Al Muthanna to oblige Maliki to desist and Chalabi to emerge, neutralizing Assad in Syria into a marginal role, impeding the candidates of Hezbollah Michel Aoun and/or others from acceding to the presidency in Lebanon.
Iran and Russia need to learn that they must give in order to take, this is how things work.
Russia can continue its special war in Ukraine, and Iran through Hajj Qassem can proceed to stretch thin in the crescent, but they know well that they badly need a compromise.
Further deterioration in Ukraine will bring new sanctions on Russia and further instability in Syraq and Lebanon will play only into the hands of Israel the arch enemy of Iran.
Obviously this might seem wishful thinking or simplistic views, but in my perspective these are much better than a major chaos coupled to regional wars.
Is it better to destabilize Jordan and Af/Pak further for minerals and shale oil? Or would it be making sense to elaborate alternatives and different prisms?
From above Israel should free with Iran the Middle East, the WEST must share with China to have a better world, and Russia needs to embrace Europe for a better design for humanity.

A reformed Lebanon enlightened and united in purpose, will play an enormous role in expressing guidance and support for world peace. A role that Lebanese pirates of today can only derail and jeopardize.
The Iranian Supreme leader and hajj Qassem both need to set a different course,

“The indispensable first step to getting the things you want out of life is this: decide what you want.” Ben Stein
Thank You,