b2b

December 26, 2013

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy (Photo credit: epSos.de)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Dated 2 January 2014

Alfred Thayer Mahan was a United States Navy flag officer, geostrategist, and historian, who has been called “the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century.” His concept of “sea power” was based on the idea that countries with greater naval power will have greater worldwide impact” Wikipedia

In navigating the Chinese civilization from its early beginning to the latest developments, one can only express an immense interest in the richness of the process and the ramifications of this, into world affairs through centuries.

Since the early Heaven’s Mandate to the Warren States and up to the Popular Republic, progress never stopped in debating ideas and policies.  Confucius, Zhuanghzi ,  Laozi, Han Fei and other prominent thinkers  or politicians as Chairman Mao, Zhou en Lai, Deng Xiaoping, up to President Xi nowadays, the miracle  continues.

Humanity established in the Chinese hinterland with a desire to develop a decent life, and it grew its sustaining aspects from agriculture to satellite navigational systems.

The Chinese human evolution curve determined a US policy called “Pivot to Asia” where assets are placed to monitor and or counter recent events represented in the Chinese maritime expansion.

In truth Chinese exports from the eastern coast as much as the trip of gold from west to east are all necessary to the widening of the trade platform on global basis, hence there is no surprise in the Chinese desire to protect its own sea lanes by a vanguard  fleet of vessels and submarines.

I imagine one day the Chinese military fleet paying port calls to Alexandria and to Rio de Janeiro, alike of a Chinese exchange of knowhow with the Iranian Stock Market exchange which is souring since June 2013.

The connection in Chinese and Iranian affairs is very positive and consequential for the human development; therefore rapprochement between Eurasian powers and its effects on western global institutional model should be thoughtfully updated.

Perhaps Sea entrepreneurs will plan soon a Luxurious cruise from Saadiyat Island to Kish to Beirut, Bali and to Shanghai docking in front of the Peace Hotel.

Masters of thought are keen to consider that present difficulties in the Chinese and Iranian economy, should be transformed into global opportunities rather than a local exploitation of regional crisis, to cement the national edifice of governors incapable to propose the right solutions.

Internal duality is in the essence of the Oriental magnitude and philosophy: is it predominance or openness the thread leading to acceptance and peace?

Alexander the Great, as per novels, ended in the Oriental Paradise of Latte and Honey, a great warrior appeased in the kingdom of sweetness.  A course if reversed where eastern flow of advancement will proceed to western Hemisphere will necessarily at some point accuse either fatigue or will be diluted with locals.

The latest policies announced in the Chinese polity and the recent radical changes in the Iranian national panorama, do tell us that security and consumption are intertwined.

Supporting china and Iran to secure peacefully their own countries and trace their own roles on the world platform is not an easy task, yet not an impossible one even.

This will necessitate a proactive western flexibility that extends beyond conservative thinking and usual books.

Security for all includes Israel and the Palestinian nation also, therefore the track is solid that a reinforcement of military assets when used with purpose, will bring about intelligent compromises, or else it will wreak havoc.

The oriental duality between the Quds Force and Rouhani’s vision is much similar in its visibility, to the diversity between Confucius and Chairman Mao.  The nuclear file handling breaking through a bomb? and the encroachment in the seas and the skies leading to hegemony or to acceptance?

Yielding results in China and Iran, consists for both, in finding their internal unified way to deliver to the world a method and a synchrony.

We know that Russia secured an oil exploration deal with the Syrian State represented by a murderer who lacks legitimacy to represent his people in a new mandate; and this is an example for Lebanon to follow suit by securing a deal for oil offshore.

In Lebanon the Taef accord had different brokers, the two most gravitational were Syria and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but now that Syria is under strife, it is obvious that the Lebanese national accord should be revised.

Phoenicians sailed north, south and west, as much as Romans reached England, eventually both succumbed to History.

The Lebanese theater is so complex, and my proposal in the national accord is to have a rotation in the roles of PM and speaker while enhancing the powers of the president by adding  the option of calling for general elections whenever the political climate doesn’t allow an exit to political parties. The constitution should be revised and the referenda need to take place on defining matters. Defending the social tissue and coexistence will be the primary mission of the Lebanese constitutional legality.

Maybe the historic reason behind the conservation of the Persian and Chinese duality is because they both didn’t overstretch in becoming maritime powers.

The challenge for China and Iran is to sail in history in the modern era, transforming the duality into a creative diversity. A dilemma they share with the Lebanese in need for a neutral government to revise the constitution and with Israel incapable to hand a nation to the Palestinians.

Security is a requirement for all, from Beirut to Beijing, ( b2b).

“ The need to record information from large business transactions while traveling the seas pushed Phoenicians to abandon the complicated Sumerian cuneiform system and develop their own set of characters……… Although these wealthy traders dominated the seas, they were not as fortunate on land. For nearly half a century, ancient Phoenicia was occupied by foreign powers.”  http://www.netplaces.com/middle-east-guide/the-cradle-of-civilization/the-phoenicians.htm

Thank You,

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Pax Persiana

December 11, 2013

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and good Day,

This is an open letter to President Hassan Rouhani of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“As for those who own, indeed, that it was made by God, and yet ascribe to it not a temporal but only a creational beginning …” De Civitate Dei contra Paganos, Augustine of Hippo ( ref. wikipedia)

Mr. President,

It is a source of comfort to note that in a relatively short period of time, your efforts and vision managed to bring a positive result, by agreeing on a first compromise with the P5+1; with the aim to secure and ensure sane governance, for the geopolitical area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

The purpose of my letter is to be transparent, in supporting a road map to achieve the rest of the necessary steps, which will project an evolution of open ended regional crisis to an era of a possible Pax Persiana.

As you might agree, moving forward is pivotal to stir events into the right direction of economic growth and regional security.

This task is clearly epic and requires much discipline, patience and openness, qualities that are in the core of the Persian soul.

The basics of advancement should be formed on the edifice of modernity and reform, where a general concept of security for all must prevail.

While I understand that you will be absorbed by national policies oriented to restore hope and spur opportunities in a very young Iranian population, I do care that you succeed in resolving the outstanding with the UAE in the three islands issue and you develop a regional energy/security  strategy that will take into consideration local aspects such as the Kurdish Autonomy in the recent pipeline to Turkey.

Local aspects abound in the Middle East and your efforts can stop or end prematurely if not in cognizance with each and every local reality.

The truth Mr. President is that your capability to broker the recent deal in Geneva elevates your nation/state to the level of a peace maker rather than a regional spoiler.

This is unprecedented per se’.

All the tactics elaborated so far in generating an Iranian position in the world stage, should be immediately updated and composed around a scheme of acceptance and prosperity.

The fist unclenched, is what we look for, in Lebanon at first.

You are well into politics and the game of the nations to realize that there is a great need to start somewhere, in order to transform the insufficient interim deal into a comprehensive agreement.

The time frame is short, as there are almost six months that can be renewed, yet without a further consolidation, the achievements of Geneva, might well be reduced to only ink.

While the Syrian theater will see the winter coming, as the imminent opening of the highway to the coast that will enable the transportation of CW on board of the Ship furnace, there is little else to mention whenever we agree that Geneva 2 must free all prisoners, open humanitarian corridors, approve aid to refugees and agree on a cease fire in waiting for political designs to be discussed for Geneva 3.

It is already evident that the foreign policy of the IR of Iran is much dynamic, however without a focus on the Lebanese theater and a satisfying solution to the present standstill, there can’t be a true Iranian evolution.

What is required is your cooperation, to help on a new neutral cabinet in Lebanon made out of professionals and independents that will ensure the presidential elections to take place on time, and address urgent social needs. Institutional matters such as a modern electoral law and general elections will be handled on a later stage.

Pax Persiana can become reality from vision; it only needs to start making peace from Beirut.

“Indeed, Allah is forgiving and Merciful… Then deliver him to his place of safety….So as long as they are upright toward you, be upright toward them” Surah At-Tawbah (Arabic: سورة التوبة, Sūratu at-Tawbah, Sura 9 .

Thank you,


Zip in Splendor

October 29, 2013

English: The logo of the Atomic Enery Organiza...

English: The logo of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I was zipping past wonders, zooming through splendor. But I hadn’t a clue if I was actually getting anywhere”, Frank Bruni

Following the latest economic data it is a common assumption by observers to expect the tapering of the FED to start next year. In the US, the Jobs revealed that construction is better than before, yet the durable goods were not up to desires. In Europe although Spanish recession seems to have ended, the Italian case is becoming a major hurdle for the Euro area revamp. It goes without saying that an economic revival might spur demand and generate an incentive to Italian exports and job creation; however this scenario will most likely take some more trimesters. Whenever the US and Europe lack in the locomotive role, usually it was the Asian tigers that assumed the lead, but we know that China will reveal soon unprecedented reforms, and Japan will need a drastic social/birth reform to exit its lost decades.

From above it is impossible only for Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and few other nations ( Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa) to lead the world demand and manufacturing , therefore the FED decision needs to focus on the main requirement and perception of the markets.

The world needs a leader with vision and in the total absence of illuminated leadership; all indicators are deteriorating the sentiment of the markets. The FED needs to taper immediately in a gradual and predictable path, starting with 5 billion dollars to be announced tomorrow.

The problem is that while the US administration is vehemently supporting the launch of the new care system revealed to be chaotic, it is sensibly showing ditto interest to better distribute the richness, concentrated in 95 % of the wellness in the hands of 1 % of the population.

Will the FED act independently from its owners the financial masters of the Universe?

This brings us to help the US understand what can be its objectives in a divisive Syrian environment. Eventually the US should pursue the territorial integrity of Syria managed by a transitional government that will ensure true representation and a better guidance for the Syrian population. Obviously as a first step, eliminating Chemical or other weapons from the theater is a very effective approach; although partial and very much incomplete. Ideally Geneva 2 could be a conference that will build on Geneva 1 where already the idea of a transitional cabinet was adopted, but it seems that chances for the gathering to take place are diminishing drastically. Be this for the simultaneous Iranian track of nuclear negotiation rising regional suspicions or because of the initial bad positioning of several powers.

While Ukraine and Turkey will highly benefit from a deal for cooperation in Gas, it is thought that the actual Russian agitation leaning towards an agreement of sort between the US and Iran, is further complicating the perspective, which is in dire need of simplicity.

So while the KSA is announcing a shift in relations with the US instead of increasing its purchase of US bonds, and Israel’s counter proposal consists of allowing the Iranian regime to acquire enriched Uranium from a foreign country to be used for its peaceful research, analysts were bogged in the dark, as they could not have details of the Iranian power point presentation with the 5 plus one.

Considering that the US cost of a military campaign to destroy or retard significantly, the Iranian nuclear program is prohibitive, and considering that any Israeli unilateral step will not be as effective as it should, all eyes are on the time needed for Iran to break out. But hold on! Will Iran break out with the actual cost and benefit formula or it will maintain the status-quo allowing it to have an immense say in several countries stretching from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Although 2014 is the year of elections par excellence in Latin America, Lebanon, Syria, the US mid term and in other nations, my expectations are that a lull of nothing will appear on the radars.

To sum up, fighting will continue in Syria in a tit for tat; however no important changes will take place and the political conference will need to wait. Assad will opt to renew his mandate without having the option of holding elections.

The Iranian Supreme leader will exit his seclusion with a result of his meditation where the status-quo is the best he can afford, spinning without break out, while suffering under sanctions. He will never understand how he can assure the Israeli people, or how he will initiate a new sauce in the Iranian economy to be linked to the world trade.

The US will play for time until a fix in the economy will be brought in, by a leader with a clear vision and sufficient political power, who will manage a negotiation with the financial masters of the universe to set better terms in running world affairs.

The Russian leadership will watch the show of international relations running, trying from time to time to upgrade its role to principal actor, while most important issues at home (social reforms, economy, future role of Russia in world affairs, etc,) are still unresolved.

Israel will drill and drill and drill, but intimately it knows that without a peaceful and painful outcome with the Arabs and a sincere effort to denuclearize the ME, the Canaanites will need to survive the existential identity and protract their security from their shadows.

China will necessitate at least 40 or 50 years to generate a political alternative to the Communist party; meanwhile it will try to balance its cities and countryside, with a peculiar sight on resources, and simultaneously seek to increase its sea lanes while arming itself with the best available weapons and technologies.

Finally and unless we help the military regime in Egypt to start the path of openness and look ahead for the next liberal decade, the undesired consequences of today will create a tantrum of deltas in the Nile that will endanger the entire African scheme.

“I was getting anywhere, without any clue. Then I zoomed through past wonders, to realize that I need to zip in splendor”.

Thank you,

 


A Sophisticated Eclipse

September 27, 2013

Syria

Syria (Photo credit: Yishac – Isaac Alvarez i Brugada)

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

As observers are expecting the UN Security Council, to finalize the draft resolution with strong wording on Syria by today, analysts are working hard to determine the future evolution of the Iranian nuclear file.

 

It is very comforting to have the Syrian crisis and the Iranian pending file proceeding towards a desired diplomatic breakthrough.

 

It remains to be seen how effectively events will unfold and we all look for a positive reflection on the Syrian refugees and Iranian population.

 

In Syria Mr. Assad should learn from the Sudanese President, who defied the international community for long, and now he managed to divide his country in two Sudan,and to witness present popular uprisings threatening the essence of the state. Sudan’s Al Bashir didn’t accomplish any significant reform and he only focused on oil profits.

 

And although Sudan and Syria have a different social composition, yet acting presidents are behaving in a similar way.

 

What President Assad needs to do is to consign the CW, repent & go to exile and for the sake of Syrian well being and of the entire humanity to facilitate the dawn of a new republic in Syria, or else he will higher the risks of his unknown fate.

 

Unknown fate! Let’s not forget that the strong resolution will mention that individuals responsible for the chemical attack in Syria will be prosecuted.

 

Often a sophisticated eclipse is much more remembered than a lot of shining rays.

 

Lebanon which is hosting a significant portion of refugees is in process to form a new government, where options are reduced to a cabinet for all or a cabinet of last resort.

 

Major aspirations are in place to have a government for all after the recent opening of Hezbollah expressed in the last speech of the general secretary Mr. Nasrallah.

 

It happens also that Lebanon has an extended mandate of its own parliament, which fact is playing against those citing the parliament representation, as only parameter for the new government formation.

 

In truth with the election of the Lebanese president approaching, the new cabinet “for all” can become holding the entire constitutional bottoms of power, hence in its formation there should be inclusion also of civil society components not resting in the extended parliament.

 

From above I see the upcoming formula as a cabinet of 30 ministers, where there will be 4 groups, 10 ministers for Hezbollah allies (8 March), 10 ministers for the prime minister and allies (14 March), 4 ministers for the president of the republic and the PSP, and 6 ministers for independents belonging to the social stream outside the parliament (intellectuals, bankers, captains of industry, business people, women in career, etc).

 

What is required today before tomorrow is that the PM designate will refresh his efforts in this direction by consulting again with the Lebanese mosaic.

 

It is also required that the Lebanese president during his visit to KSA next week will elaborate on this formula that will ultimately represent the extra mile effort to form the cabinet.

 

I am confident by now that within the next meeting of the 5 plus one and Iran in Geneva in October, the Lebanese will have formed the long awaited cabinet.

 

“Where objectivity, independence, clarity, integrity and valor persist, inevitably growth and prosperity will proceed”.

 

Thank You,

 

 

 


At Large

September 23, 2013

OpenStreetMap Logo

OpenStreetMap Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the results of the German elections, a cabinet sponsored by a grand coalition can be envisaged, where the winning party will form the cabinet together to Social Democrats and the Greens.

 

Two of Europe’s biggest industries will be having a similar government (Italy and Germany) working on compromise to define a better policy for progress.

 

In Italy the cabinet will need to put through a policy to target the public debt and unemployment, or else a new election will be looming.

 

While in Germany the compromise will be, to achieve a smart energy policy coupled to an infrastructure investment, and a minimum wage adjustment that will not negatively influence exports.

 

Compromise is the essence of government, as multiple interests often collide and impede the civil society to act in dynamics that represent only one actor. The role of politicians is to mediate and to find solutions, and whenever they fail, as in Lebanon presently the interests of the collectivity will be endangered.

 

The hope for Lebanon in light of the Iranian charm offensive is to form a cabinet soon that will tackle major issues such as; neutral stance, dilution of the bifurcate divergence into a colorful and multifaceted cooperation, economic recovery, social crisis, security environment, strategic depth, constitutional reforms, start ups and job creation.

 

Definitely the challenge for the US in view of the looming deadline of the new fiscal year is to find a line of balance, where a reasonable raise of the public debt will be approved, together to an adjustment in expenditure in the federal budget that will not nullify food stamps.

 

It goes without saying that the market already accepted lady vice chairman, as a successor to Mr. Bernanke, where a predictable and gradual taper will be applied starting October, in an attentive effort to gather a pace between national interests “at large” and international markets performance.

 

As already described in a previous contribute, the national interests in our modern era are better defined “at large”, rather than in a thin prism of local and condensed view. The collectivity belonging to any nation is better served, whenever a wise and methodical process of understanding, is applied to geography, history, economics and to the international dynamics.

 

Analysts are elaborating about the last Russian diplomatic approach to the Syrian CW, the effective resolution of this file peacefully and the ramification of a political solution. It is reasonable to expect inspectors to arrive in Syria by the end of October, and that the process of political negotiation will begin in January, based on the principle of a new Syrian national accord that will pave the way for a transitional government.

 

The upcoming three months might reveal pivotal for the life line extended by the Iranian Republican Guards Council & the Supreme Leader, to the new Iranian president. Observers are considering that Mr. Rouhani doesn’t have much time ahead and that his space to maneuver is limited. I tend to differ on this, simply because the new president is the only asset in place for the option of a negotiated approach, that will avoid the climate of confrontation, be it through sanctions or a military engagement.

 

Hence I consider the Iranian president there to stay for long inn diplomacy and therefore the investment on shaking hands with him is not sufficient. The US approach should be, as a hosting player to the UN forum, to deliver much honor and welcoming.

 

I consider that in this particular momentum in international relations there are no two nations on earth that can benefit more from a rapprochement more than Iran and the US.

 

The principle to be enunciated is to accept the peaceful nuclear research in Iran as per international protocols, while ensuring the security of the state of Israel unconditionally, to permit this state to eliminate its own WMD, once peace treaties are in place accepting Israel as a final nation.

 

There is a concrete possibility that the decade 2014-2024 will be of enormous enhancement for the living conditions in the ME, where negotiations will succeed to deliver.

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

 


The Age of Phantom Diplomacy

September 11, 2013

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63.

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“…in the newly minted “field” of public diplomacy – a hybrid “discipline” that draws upon the social sciences, journalism, foreign language and cultural expertise. Public diplomacy is foremost a skill, like it or not, that is most effectively learned from practitioners and best acquired on the job”.

It is unprecedented in international affairs to witness such a velocity in current diplomatic happenings.

Perhaps we should call it the Age of phantom diplomacy.

Can this rapidly evolving international diplomatic climate represent a promise for a political platform in Syria or it will pave the way for military escalation?

We know that the floated Russian proposal related to the Syrian chemical weapons was welcomed by the Syrian dictator, however we still lack any detail of implementation as per Russian agenda and desire.

We know also that the draft resolution submitted by the French for consultations at the UNSC was already declined in its form by the Russians, and this leaves the international community in apprehension, as chancelleries are wondering if and when there will be a deal .

We know also that the US president in his address yesterday to the US nation stressed the importance to keep the credible military threat vivid underlining the necessity of American unity behind the strike, while giving priority to diplomacy to exhaust its energy and set a course .

We know also that on Thursday the US and Russian secretaries of state will meet.

What we ignore from all above is how the Syrians will come clean, by their acceptance of the Russian proposal, and how their tactics to stall will be deployed on the international arena, at least to have a benefit, for next year’s presidential elections in Syria. In truth the dictator will do all possible to gain a new mandate, without introducing any reform to the system, to become parliamentarian or reinforce the rights of different communities, by sharing governance and distributing on equal demographic and geographic basis, the national resources.

Nonetheless, analysts do expect a strong resolution authorizing international forces to account for, control and destroy the  storage, and all other facilities including questioning of the scientists.

Analysts expect also the Syrian criminal regime to immediately publish a list of sites , of quantities , of delivery weapons , of laboratories; and of scientists working on the chemical storage. This will go in tandem with the authorization of unfettered access of international monitoring to the CW storage in multiple sites and to laboratories declared or suspected.

Analysts do expect also that perpetrators of Chemical crimes will be brought to justice. They also expect the US and allies to keep the credible military threat coupled to enforcing a rational and secure UN mechanism to destroy CW.

It is obvious that the congress will remain seized on the issue while working also on the agenda of big issues, deficit, debt-ceiling, immigration, sanity, taxation, FED nominee, etc.

US Lawmakers in their multiple responsibilities, should express their stands on behalf of their constituencies and simultaneously create unity for national security issues.

It goes without saying that the resolute stand of the US administration is one of the main reasons for the dramatic and accelerated Russian proposal.

Although we ignore the details of the conversation between the two presidents and who was present during the meeting, which was previously canceled for the Snowden case, our desire is that this Russian proposal, will be entrusted and followed up by a political breakthrough.

It is a matter of fact that interests can intersect or diverge, The US and Israel have a common interest to destroy the Syrian chemical arsenal, while the Russians and Syrians have an interest, to renew the Syrian presidential mandate and set a different strategic balance not resorting to Chemical balance.

The question posed is how many civilians will die more in Syria waiting for a true solution?

In truth what is presented for now is interesting yet partial, it might take out the chemical arsenal to be replaced by other armaments; but it will not reform the Syrian system nor will ensure universal rights for the citizens. This intersection can be effective for international powers and for the security of Israel but in the same time, it can be not, for the rights of the people, to express itself, and this is what all the Syrian crisis is all about.  Hence my perception is, that a partial proposal will prolong the agony of the Syrian state, keeping in place a dictator who plays by some norms, while crossing others and this is the lesser evil for chancelleries.

Looking from another prism we can say that Assad son dispersed the legacy of Assad father.

He was responsible for the security when Hariri was killed, and he consequently lost full control in Lebanon.

He was in charge of Syrian reforms when the revolution started, and he lost the monopoly of coercion and the territorial integrity.

He was the ultimate custodian of CW when these were used, and he is about to lose the storage and alter the strategic balance for long pursued by his father.

In the effort to govern and implement his policies Bashar Assad overestimates his own strength, and in practice he enlarges favors to Israel and the US as nobody else. So why change him? He cuts deals favoring others and applies policies that deteriorate the national interests of his own collectivity.

The involvement of Hezbollah by the Syrian regime is to be traced in the policies that will eventually weaken the entire arsenal of Iran in the area, as much as the immediate acceptance of the Russian offer by the Syrians was either an indirect hit to Iranian soft power, or an opening for further developments on the Iranian file.

In the negotiation between Russia and the West for the Syrian crisis, regional powers have a lesser say, therefore the mechanism for a deal should have different considerations not only linked to the short run.

The lessons that can be learned by Hezbollah is that interests can shift and that having a line of supply through Syria, doesn’t justify its own intervention in Syria or the derailment of the political and security environment in Lebanon.

Hezbollah an Iranian proxy has now a multiple usage, a multilateral action, in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. It will not exit the Syrian trap and will never tend a helping hand to the pm designate to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource.

As any delay to form the cabinet in Lebanon, will cause Lebanon more losses and will generate a high risk for the essence of the national interests, the main responsible for the present idle situation at this stage are only the pm designate and the Lebanese president.

Both Mr. Michel Suleiman and Mr. Tammam Salam are requested to proceed urgently to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource. Failure to do so will widen the gap of the institutions with the people, and will only increase the area of operation of independent militias.

The Syrian crisis today is focused on the control of the CW, but we all know that this is a door that can well open into a limited political breakthrough or deteriorate into a military action.

How will Bashar trust to defend his crimes while his chemical dent will be destroyed?

Most likely a tactic of delays and stalling will be soon evident and my forecast is that the Russian proposal will continue to be exploited to gain time, which is precious for all actors to apply their own policies and exert pressures.

Although the proceedings in the congress for approval of military strike will proceed in parallel with the Russian proposal, my assessment is that the mechanism for CW control and dismantlement is extremely complex.  By itself the game of the nations is extremely cynic and treacherous.  The result for now is that military action can be undertaken only after the UN general assembly and the German elections.

Meanwhile the FED will have announced its gradual and predictable tapering to start in October by founding very likely only 78 Billion dollars, and this is a balanced step to safeguard the monetary and reserve problems of India, Turkey, Russia and Brazil.  Isn’t this process a responsible US international attitude of governance?

Perhaps Isolationists will realize what a connected world is, where Russia is projecting a perception of pseudo grandeur while the US is mastering the initiative and the tempo.

How win-win for all in the era of phantom diplomacy is based on the pillar of human loss?

Politics at best. Where are China and Iran? Will there be a strike that might endanger Israeli and Lebanese lives?

“Political evolution, on the other hand, is located at the creative cutting-edge, where old problems are solved with new techniques or new forms of organization, and where new problems are brought under political control”  Peter A Corning , Synergy, Cybernetics and the Evolution of Politics.

Thank you


The Cabinet of Last Resource

September 6, 2013

Lebanese cedar, emblem of Lebanon.

Lebanese cedar, emblem of Lebanon. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

This is an open letter to President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri and PM designate Tammam Salam.

Your excellencies,

“Because of this situation … these people have a special role to play: building bonds, resolving misunderstandings, reasoning with some, moderating others… Their inherent vocation is to be links, bridges, mediators between different communities and different cultures. This is why their dilemma is full of significance. If these people cannot live their multiple belongings, if they constantly have to choose between one side and the other, if they are ordered to get back to their tribe, we have the right to be worried about the basic way the world functions.” Amin Maalouf,  Les Identités meurtrières .

It is common sense to believe that exceptional circumstances require exceptional measures.

Considering that currently Lebanon is going through a major constitutional crisis, a care taker cabinet since five months and a parliament that extended its own mandate without any check and balance, a very unstable security environment and a social and economic crisis expanding by the day, I am convinced that unless an institutional initiative is undertaken, the odds will aggravate and the worse is yet to come.

We know that the Syrian crisis is going to unfold in a dramatic escalation which will reverberate into Lebanon and the demographic tragedy will be unprecedented. Lebanon since the 19th century witnessed at least five waves of emigration of his own children, and at least four waves of immigration hosting several harassed communities.

In view of the above I call on the three of you to host urgently in Baabda Palace, consultations with the three Lebanese political blocs, 8 and 14 March and the centrists, to be followed by a lunch and determine the viability of a concerted Lebanese cabinet.

Whenever this option will not deliver a cabinet and an agreement between the political elite will not be possible, then I call on the PM designate to submit his line up to the President and ask the concert of the speaker for the vote on the confidence in the parliament. The cabinet of last resource should be lined up before the UN general assembly and part of it can be as follows :

The total will be of 10 ministers including the PM.  2 Shiites, 2 Sunnis, 2 Maronites, 1 Druze, 1 catholic, 1 Orthodox and 1 Armenian.

I will indicate 9 out of 10 names and assignments in order to support your kind action:

Mr Tammam Salam Prime Minister and Minister of Justice and of information

Retired Brigadier Shawki Al Masri  Minister of Defense  and of public works

Mrs Lina Mroue’ Minister of youth and of energy & water

Mrs Christine Sfeir deputy PM, Minister of Tourism and of Telecommunications

Mr Adel Kassar Minister of education and of Commerce

Mr Ali Rashid (businessman asked to leave UAE) Minister of labor, of displaced and of social affairs

Mr Adnan Hussein  Minister of Foreign Affairs and health and agriculture

Mr Samir Moqbel Minister of Finance , of interior and of culture

Mr Panos Manjian Minister of Industry

I am confident that it is high time for your kind action. Today the President will be in Nice for the Jeux de la Francophonie and my expectation is that by next Thursday the lunch will take place, where the cabinet either agreed or of last resource will be announced Friday the day after . The vote of confidence will be expressed by September 18th.

"Let me tell you who are the children of my Lebanon …They are the parents who tend the nurseries,…They are the builders, the potters, the weavers and the bell-casters…They are the ones who are steadily moving toward perfection, beauty, and truth". Gibran Khalil Gibran, You have your Lebanon and I have mine .

Thank you,