Greetings and Good Day,
“Where objective analysis can lead to righteous policy, a void in both is dramatic. A latent decision making will have present and future costs”
As US economic indicators are coming in with a regular flux, it is my understanding from the mixed data related to housing, energy, manufacturing, spending and jobs, that the recession is over, although the recovery is tortuous, especially in the labor market.
In view of the approaching US presidential elections, observers are uncertain how to address the upcoming last phase of the presidential mandate.
Debating this issue will help on clarity. It is my conviction that there are five main domains that need to be balanced by the US and these are: the economy, Iran, Syria, North Korea, bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam, Brazil, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon.
As for the economy, it is understood that the FED is watching closely and will inject a tactical QE3 in case of need to keep up the maneuver and induce leverage for growth, in view of the existing economic problems in Europe and China. My prediction is that unless Europe will invert the austerity we will be walking on a tight rope. From here my calculus is for the Chinese to follow up on the peg enlargement band with the dollar in a coordinated intervention with Germany and France. This can be achieved by financing European quantitative easing coupled to a gradual Chinese political reform and enlarging the investment solid ground.
As for Iran, the US is doing all possible to open up and ease tension with the Supreme leader office to broker an agreement. This will be based on the principle of civil nuclear energy and unfettered access by the IAEA, in exchange for a gradual sanctions revoke. The second meeting in Baghdad might well clear the smoke and we will know the real substance. If a trusted framework of negotiations leading to the verifiable civil isotope or a deadlock bringing sanctions to a stronger level, and the attack on multiple targets inevitable by the end of July.
Coming to Syria, theories abound if this is Bosnia, Yemen, Libya or else. Well this is Syria, and there are two separate and simultaneous tracks. One diplomatic to pressure Russia to approve a Chapter 7 UNSC after May 5, and the other de facto where Turkey will create after May 23 a protected border zone to enable aid to refugees and to the FSA to regroup and conduct operations in tandem with an unprecedented and undeclared stealthy US drone attack campaign on selected high value targets. Combined aerial final combat sorties can follow in the terminal phase, joined with some UN troops on ground.
The objective is the demise and the trial of the Assad clan asap, and the call on a international conference in Moscow or Berlin to define the transition and the democratic course that will guarantee all parts and minorities.
Failure to act in Syria will transform ahime’ the colors of the US presidential residence forever, as it will have responsibility for Syrian innocent blood.
The RED HOUSE.
As for North Korea, it is expected that the attitude of the regime will constantly rely on threats, negotiations, and other tactics, seeking recognition and manipulated by an adjacent chinese neighbor delivering some technical assistance. This will lead to a nuclear detonation, but will not bring a conflict. Much caution and patience are on demand, and the solution is not on the immediate horizon.
Bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam Brazil, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon will need constant assessment and openness, but one thing can be affirmed, the US should find itself before reaching to the others.
In truth a major soul finding should be done in the US administration as their own message is lost and they are transmitting a flu image.
“Spoken thoughts conduce to better ties, relevant changes are sourced by a frank approach”
- International military operation looms for Syria (rt.com)
- Time to March on Syria(video) man being buried alive by Syrian Army (iamiranaware.wordpress.com)
- UN strongly condemns North Korea rocket launch (ctv.ca)
- UN decries North Korean rocket launch (csmonitor.com)
- Author: US averting gaze from Syria slaughter – CNN International (edition.cnn.com)
- China, Russia Launch Joint Naval Exercises (hawaiireporter.com)
- UN strongly condemns NKorea launch (myfoxdc.com)
- UN strongly condemns NKorea rocket launch (heraldonline.com)