The Red House

April 27, 2012

Flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency...

Flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an organization of the United Nations Deutsch: Flagge der Internationalen Atomenergieorganisation (IAEO), eine Organisation der Vereinten Nationen (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Where objective analysis can lead to righteous policy, a void in both is dramatic. A latent decision making will have present and future costs”

As US economic indicators are coming in with a regular flux, it is my understanding from the mixed data related to housing, energy, manufacturing, spending and jobs, that the recession is over, although the recovery is tortuous, especially in the labor market.

In view of the approaching US presidential elections, observers are uncertain how to address the upcoming last phase of the presidential mandate.

Debating this issue will help on clarity. It is my conviction that there are five main domains that need to be balanced by the US and these are: the economy, Iran, Syria, North Korea, bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam, Brazil, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon.

As for the economy, it is understood that the FED is watching closely and will inject a tactical QE3 in case of need to keep up the maneuver and induce leverage for growth, in view of the existing economic problems in Europe and China. My prediction is that unless Europe will invert the austerity we will be walking on a tight rope. From here my calculus is for the Chinese to follow up on the peg enlargement band with the dollar in a coordinated intervention with Germany and France. This can be achieved by financing European quantitative easing coupled to a gradual Chinese political reform and enlarging the investment solid ground.

As for Iran, the US is doing all possible to open up and ease tension with the Supreme leader office to broker an agreement. This will be based on the principle of civil nuclear energy and unfettered access by the IAEA, in exchange for a gradual sanctions revoke. The second meeting in Baghdad might well clear the smoke and we will know the real substance. If a trusted framework of negotiations leading to the verifiable civil isotope or a deadlock bringing sanctions to a stronger level, and the attack on multiple targets inevitable by the end of July.

Coming to Syria, theories abound if this is Bosnia, Yemen, Libya or else. Well this is Syria, and there are two separate and simultaneous tracks. One diplomatic to pressure Russia to approve a Chapter 7 UNSC after May 5, and the other de facto where Turkey will create after May 23 a protected border zone to enable aid to refugees and to the FSA to regroup and conduct operations in tandem with an unprecedented and undeclared stealthy US drone attack campaign on selected high value targets. Combined aerial final combat sorties can follow in the terminal phase, joined with some UN troops on ground.

The objective is the demise and the trial of the Assad clan asap, and the call on a international conference in Moscow or Berlin to define the transition and the democratic course that will guarantee all parts and minorities.

Failure to act in Syria will transform ahime’ the colors of the US presidential residence forever, as it will have responsibility for Syrian innocent blood.

The RED HOUSE.

As for North Korea, it is expected that the attitude of the regime will constantly rely on threats, negotiations, and other tactics, seeking recognition and manipulated by an adjacent chinese neighbor delivering some technical assistance. This will lead to a nuclear detonation, but will not bring a conflict. Much caution and patience are on demand, and the solution is not on the immediate horizon.

Bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam Brazil, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon will need constant assessment and openness, but one thing can be affirmed, the US should find itself before reaching to the others.

In truth a major soul finding should be done in the US administration as their own message is lost and they are transmitting a flu image.

 “Spoken thoughts conduce to better ties, relevant changes are sourced by a frank approach”

Thank you,


The Thought Box

April 21, 2012

Karadouran beach on the Syrian-Turkish borderl...

Karadouran beach on the Syrian-Turkish borderline in Kesab, Syria (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“There is one effective method to spread values with sound policies and this is to continuously open the thought box “

Objective analysts are well aware of the dire momentum in international affairs, where the economy is still representing a major hurdle in several industrial nations as much as elections, proliferation and winds of change are still in gestation.

We do know that French and US elections in a window stretching until November might well intricate the collective western action versus pivotal geopolitical issues. 

We do know also that Chinese growth problems and Russian relenting monetary reforms; do pose significant and complicating issues for the world citizenry.    

We do know that pressing theaters in Syria, North Korea and Iran are looking for solutions and seemingly there is no clear path at the horizon.

In front of such severe global environment, the best hope is for the less damage.

From one side we have a US administration basing its diplomatic track with Iran on a religious Fatwa not to develop a nuclear device, while the ultimate goal of the track is to transform the fatwa into a national policy. How will this extricate itself remains to be understood, although famous journalists are parachuting their massive and jammed thoughts on our clear minds.

From another side we have a Russian tsarist attitude, willing to ensure its own national interests by  pressing a solution in Syria introducing a first time unarmed observers mission, in presence of a methodical scenario a’ la “Cecenia” .  We augur all parties involved not to be hurt in presence of permanent genocide, of the Syrian population will to progress and to exert its universal rights.

From one side we have a Chinese Communist formula that reached its turning point after decades of formidable growth, where present corruption and purges are necessarily to be diagnosed and healed by a reform policy based on openness to all strata of the civil aspirations. The reform is instrumental for the Dragon nation to have sane growth and to project peaceful power on the world stage.

From another side we have a young North Korean regime calling the shots of instability in the peninsula, focusing on a military aspect, while losing any perspective of sunshine rapprochement. This is an extremely shaky platform that will necessitate a lot of patience and pretty much dosage of guidance.

From one side we have an Iranian regime threatening the closure of Hormuz every now and then and massing enriched isotopes for unknown purposes, suffocating the local population and negotiating with the p5 + 1 in new rounds leading nowhere.

From another side we have Israel a nuclear power, assessing constantly if impeding the Iranian immunity means to destroy the Fordo mountain facility and to take out simultaneously the supreme leader by the end of July, or to put the destiny of the Jewish culture in the hands of a Fatwa that we hope it becomes a national policy.

From one side we have a Turkish state trying to grasp the economic development in presence of different problems, e.g. the Syrian refugees. While the Turkish eastern look will bring it a lot of opportunities, paradoxically it will distance it from Russia based on national values. This will exactly be evidenced in Syria.

From another side we have a French state portrayed into an election that necessarily will need to address the future in an added value to the Franco-German alliance, rethinking Europe allying it with transversal and overseas models, BRICS and beyond.

“When failed policies and protests, do not lead to an effective change, presumably this will lead to a terrain of usury and collective poverty. Hope will downsize itself “

Thank you,