Assad displaced or exiled

June 29, 2012

English: Bashar al-Assad under pressure

English: Bashar al-Assad under pressure (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ In the mosaic of world nations, usually events unfold not as expectations”

As the European summit will end its working sessions and try to find solutions for the incumbent crisis in the euro zone, markets are still tattering to define the direction of the economies.

Mixed US data and European intense recession are generating a mechanism of uncertainty that is affecting BRIC countries and other major industrial countries and economies worldwide.

It is unknown how developments will move forward, as credible planning is lacking and being replaced by a day by day decision making.

So while observers and markets are in apprehension, we have some theaters moving into predictable horizons.

It is common sense to expect a reformist approach in Egypt after the presidential elections that will put civil rights, universal principles, prosperity and better distribution of wealth on top of the agenda.  

In Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, central bankers are waiting for a political signal and protection in order to act. However losing time and waiting until the completion of the Euro edifice (fiscal and monetary actions) will mean fomenting volatility and recession further. Much better to take the initiative and introduce the Pedul a currency kin to the Euro.

I do believe also that the Iranian regime will be severely hit by the new round of sanctions , although this will not diminish the determination of the Ayatollah to go their way in projecting power. It is unclear what will be their moves in the coming trimester, but we can imagine they will resort to further rhetoric while trying to control losses in the domestic arena, in the debilitated Syrian ally and in the ineffective Hezbollah controlled cabinet in Beirut.       

In my view, I tend to consider the efforts of the UNSC to meet in Geneva with other powers and try to sponsor a transition solution in Syria as very dynamic and worth of praise. Unfortunately the Assad clan is already in a war deployment and there is no way they will relinquish power without being displaced by brute force.

Bashar Assad is a butcher and a murderer as much as all his entourage and the only solution is to alter the status quo by securing / destroying neuralgic centers and WMD deposits.

While it is clear that the Assad clan is losing control on an incremental trend, it is expected that the upper hand will evolve to favor the opposition.

Supply and training will aid the opposition to gain direct control on geographic areas and to link different networks; therefore the upcoming month will undoubtedly generate much better exposure and brilliant results by the opposition.         

Obviously external intervention by Turkey to establish buffer zones and to erase military objectives will be much on demand by the opposition in order to accelerate the demise of Assad and lessen the suffering of the Syrian population.

WMD control will be extremely important to achieve, and we do learn that there are more than a dozen of sites that may require an elevated number of sorties and troops to be secured or neutralized. Maybe this is the reason for the lengthy agony and the preference to allot to covert actions better chances.    

A transition is required but it has to be scored and settled in absence of Assad and his clan, in order to deliver to the Syrians their national aspirations.

“When a fate of a regime is signed, exile remains the best option for physical survival”   

Thank you,

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Defining Moment in Syria

June 25, 2012

WMD world map

WMD world map (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Regardless of how things will develop, the trigger of action is pivotal”

Following the elections results in both Greece and Egypt, we can expect things to head in two different directions.

My view is that the Egyptian president will do his best to unite the nation and build a reformed country following the Turkish example. While in contrast I am not positive about the new cabinet performance in Greece.   

Both will need some time to set their sailing route and analysts will be looking into early signals to understand how the evolution of policies will likely proceed.

Meanwhile it is a fact that on a global scale there is downturn in productivity and consumption and this is bad news for growth and development.

China, Japan, the US, Europe and other main engines in the world industries are struggling to exit the slowdown and this is affecting the choices of politics and governments.

What we know is that the FED twisted again, while the EU will wait until the meeting of end June to express a unified stance. The remedy I see is that Latin countries introduce the PEDUL as a kin to the Euro, and that the US will extend taxes holidays and empower start ups and open to immigration and tourism.

We also know that talks between the P5+1 and Iran did not produce any tangible result, while the Syrian drama is getting uneasy.

Looking into precedents of interventions, we can list many cases, the most evident perhaps are Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Libya. Where I think there is no similarity is that the Syrian inventory of WMD represents an enormous threat to all mankind.

We learned on the weekend about the episode of downing the Turkish plane and the consulting meeting with NATO called by Turkey. It is my convincement that there should be no fly zones in Syria and that the WMD and neuralgic command centers must be secured/destroyed/controlled.

Today in Lebanon the national dialogue session will reconvene, and the Russian president will visit Israel. Both are important indicators, to follow on with all parties involved in Lebanon and Israel to keep both countries in safety, security and detached from the Syrian connection.

Defining the Syrian moment during July, by evolving the status quo into a final decline of the Assad clan, designing a political transition that will tutor all international powers, coupled to further sanctions on Iran will represent another step of enhanced diplomacy to avoid a military unilateral action by Israel.

“Time is running fast, unless policy makers will think in terms of celerity, the train of peace will be missed”         

Thank you,


Let Syriza govern

June 18, 2012

the logo of syriza

the logo of syriza (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“when popular movements move, they should be entitled to government. Failure to do so, will plunge civil societies in further antagonism, that will become lethal”

In a close analysis to the Greek vote we can understand that the popular vote assigned the destiny of the nation to Syriza. By doubling its consent in a one month time, the leftist party is without doubt the star to watch in Europe.

My call is on Greek parties to facilitate a minority one party cabinet , the Syriza cabinet.

The policy of Syriza will look into two sides, the long term further European adherence, and the short term introduction of the PEDUL as already stated in a recent post.

As for the Egyptian presidential election, it is of utmost importance to validate the victory of the MB candidate and let him start moving ahead with healing and reconciling the Egyptians.

There is no time to lose for both theaters.

As for the Iranian talks, unfortunately these will not bring about any significant breakthrough. Hence this is paving the way for further sanctions to take place.

The hope is that an Iranian unilateral approach of halting all nuclear activities and asking for reprisal of talks in the autumn will induce the West to rethink the sanctions in a relaxing tone.

Failure to halt enrichment and development of activities in FORDOW will deteriorate further the entire geopolitical environment.

In all cases the most pressuring theater is the Syrian one, and we can easily imagine that a major operation will be launched by the US before the end of June to destroy missiles and neuralgic centers, coupled to securing WMD deposits.

“Concord and harmony evaporated, conflict is on the horizon”

Thank you,  


Introducing the Pedul

June 16, 2012

English: €2 commemorative coin Euro Zone 2007 ...

English: €2 commemorative coin Euro Zone 2007 50th Anniversary of the Signature of the Treaty of Rome Français : Pièce commémorative de 2 euros de la Zone Euro en 2007 pour le 50e anniversaire de la signature du Traité de Rome (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ Analogies and history are much important to widen the views, geography is also very much so . Above all what is required is to draw a policy, a successful problem solving and long term vision to be developed”

World leaders and statesmen are fortunate to have a long list of events taking place in the coming days.

The Greek and Egyptian elections, the P5+1 /Iran talks, the G20 in Mexico, the Euro zone turbulence, the US anemic growth, the Syrian WMD, emerging markets and Lebanese dissociation success.

Assuming that the left will win in Greece and the MB candidate will be elected president in Egypt, one should not look into these democratic acts as worrying events, rather these are natural affirmation of the populace desire to seek a new future.

As for the P5+1 / Iran talks, it is expected that a deadlock will be the outcome, where a joint diplomatic communiqué’ stating the desire of all to find solution will be only ink on paper. Military confrontation will be on radar in end July.

All eyes will be on Mexico, looking to identify the global coordination to face the Euro chronic problems, where central bankers will deploy their arsenals to face a financial storm in the making.

But will this be the solution? further easing or Euro Bonds or other measures indicated by Mr. Nouriel Rubini and Mr. Niall Ferguson in a joint article on Der Spiegel ?  Yes of course, but on the long run.

So we are facing a situation, where the cure is known to take many years to be implemented, fiscal procedures, federalism and financial measures. Yet immediate steps considered as tactical transition should be focused on by the Latin nations.

The imminent solution is to introduce, the weak euro (to be called Pedul ) having half the value of the euro and issued by central bankers of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and perhaps France.     

The Pedul ( pesetas, escudos, dracma, uro, lira) will enable latin nations to empower their manufacturing and exports, it will facilitate job growth, and coupled to tax holidays on start ups, and a reform of the welfare, it will be the bridge on which the federalism of Europe will walk its way.  

The anemic growth in the US at this stage can be supported only by the twist operation, even if a renewal of maximum de-taxation is much desired.  However it is unlikely that the congress and the president will agree on de-taxation.

The crisis in the US and in Europe is projecting an arc of instability, stretching on a global scale and this will be evident especially in the conflict in Syria.

It is clear for now that Russia is positioning itself with troops near Syrian shores , and that there will be no agreement between the US and Russian president on how to find solutions. Only crude power on ground will establish the mechanism of influence sharing. Helas that Russia is playing a negative role and Mr. Putin is confirming to be an obsolete old guard fellow .

The US will act after June 25 and it will secure / destroy the WMD / missiles in Syria. it will also intensify its support to the unified opposition.

Emerging markets will be watching closely, but it is no secret that the third quarter will be very volatile.

What remains is the cedar nation, and here I advice Mr. Hassan Nasrallah to stay cool, to lay down the guns, and to go on a low profile, to tutor a neutral cabinet for the elections, and maintain national dialogue, to put Lebanese interests above all interests and avoid any kind of provocation of any sort.   

The main objective for Lebanon is to walk in the summer and get to the winter safe and sane without any major problems or disorders of any kind.

So for your ears Mr. Nasrallah, it is wise for you to go on a long silence.

“There is nothing more important than respect, silence and tolerance in setting policies “

Thank you


WMD

June 13, 2012

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (Photo credit: Chris_Carter_)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ Sense making is a major science to organize priorities and set policies, where wise actions are always required and much on demand”

As the end of the first semester of 2012 is fast approaching, observers are lacking the velocity necessary to understand events, and develop sound performance of analysis.

This is our new world, extremely fast and greatly connected.

Mr. Niall Ferguson a highly respected historian elaborated about his cure to the Euro area lately, advising that only further integration and federalism will be the right cure.

Other respected opinion makers introduced the idea of the Grexit ( exit of Greece from the euro) or the Gerxit ( exit of germany from the euro).

Although all above mentioned options are possible, we need to understand the time required to bridge the gap, between the builders of the European frame and the fire fighters of the crisis.

While it is true that the Euro is the currency of many countries, not linked to a defined federal structure yet, it is also true that nothing prohibits the euro to give birth to another euro.

Two Euros circulating simultaneously, one having the actual value of the market issued by the ECB and the euro son having half value of the major euro and issued by 5 central banks (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece) .

 What is most required today is a preemptive measure proposed by Mr. Monti a bildeberger and adopted by Latin central bankers and Ireland.

The exit of Greece is very costly as much as the exit of Germany is.

Therefore the best solution for “bailout” countries is not to divorce from the Euro but to give birth to a child, a junior Euro.

Hopefully thinkers, academics, economists, traders, and others will contribute to help everyone realize that time is passing by and that we need to be fast and acting.  

Coming to the second component of the present intricacy, we need to tackle two theaters, Iran and Syria.

It is understood that the end of diplomacy will put all powers in confrontation; hence contingencies should be dressed without emotions.

In my optic, the first step is to act on the Syrian theater.

There are two things the US will need to do from the 25th June onward.

One thing is to deliver increasingly combined and calibrated guidance to the opposition, and organize its ranks both in politics and military aspects.

It needs also to prepare it for a protracted struggle until the freedom of the Syrian population.

Secondly to secure/neutralize Syrian WMD deposits and destroy long haul missiles at the earliest convenience.

As soon as Syrian WMD is neutralized and missiles destroyed, then we can start talking about the theater of Iran.

However in the meantime, a second squadron of F-22 should be deployed to Qatar and more mine sweeping assets deployed in the vicinity of Hormuz to increase the fire power and the human power.

The third career also should be called to join the central command as the month of July will be highly sensitive, and various scenarios readied in consideration of total flexibility.

Expectation is high for action on the Euro junior and on the Syrian weapons of mass destruction and missiles.  

“ Standing idle is not an appropriate measure anymore, hence walking the way to shoulder responsibilities is the smartest endeavor and enterprise”  

  Thank you,

 

 


The End of Diplomacy

June 9, 2012

Portugal Corrida

Portugal Corrida (Photo credit: George Eastman House)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In presence of utter failure to move forward, complexity will increase and divergent stances will likely develop into wide conflict: the end of diplomacy“

As far as monitors and analysts watch events and try to come up with meaningful thoughts, the march of escalating deflagration is moving faster than ever.

We all know that major problems reside in the economic crisis in Europe, the relenting US recovery, Chinese ubiquitous approach to extricate itself from an obsolete model of growth, the Iranian permanent effort to deceive International powers and to build a nuclear weapon, and finally the Syrian Crisis.

In Europe it is no secret that Spain will ask a bailout and that a way out of the mess, is for central Bankers in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland to convene and decide the creation of a weak euro. A kin to the actual one which will have half nominal value and will be printed by each central bank separately and will circulate regularly and will be convertible with the strong Euro and any other currency. This is the only way out of the present deadlock ad a fiscal union or policy will need a long time to be put in place.

Time is short and the fastest this is done, the better it is.

The US is witnessing an anemic recovery and now the way out is to extend a limited option of twist operation, until after the elections. Clearly the new mandate will need to tackle with the fiscal reform and the health reform as much as the military strategy and ballistic/nuclear armament limitation. Hopefully by then the real estate will stabilize and new start ups will generate more jobs.

In China we don’t know yet the date of the party assembly to decide about the central committee, but we know about the interest rate cut as a defensive measure for growth.

There must be a continuous effort to divert Chinese resources to promote internal spending and open the society into a better mosaic of universal rights.

We know that the last talks between Iran and the IAEA didn’t lead anywhere, and that perhaps Iran will walk away from the planned talks in Moscow, as there will be no advance in any case.

This failure will put the Iranian clock again on watch, and we will see soon some distinguished thinkers writing about the upcoming phase full of incognito, especially that the Israelis reached full readiness and preparedness.

I assume that by end of June automatic sanctions will be put in place and a second F22 squadron will be sent to Al Udeid, while a third career will be put on call for mid July to reach the central command area of operation.       

An idea floated in the past days consisted of hosting an international conference for Syria, and we do learn that the US emissary Mr. Hof could not reach an agreement with the Russian counterpart. This is another failure that puts the Syrian missiles and CBW clock on high speed, limiting the US options, while adding fuel to the flammable area by augmenting the risk of a Hezbollah preemptive action.

It is recommended that the US will follow a double track in Syria, the first will consist on securing or destroying the deposits of CBW/missiles and eliminating the threat at the source by Drones or by covert GI’s or SEALS actions; coupled to an  increase of  its full military and political support to the Syrian opposition. Projecting guidance and planning with the clear objective of the demise of the Assad Clan and the installment of an alternative transition that will supervise the new constitution, the unity of the army, the elections of the municipalities, parliament and president.

We are heading towards a very risky momentum and soon another post will follow on the inevitable war on the horizon.

“ What is at stake is to maintain the model of liberty and culture in being, without letting down the civil society and its desire to prosperity and peace”

Thank you,   


From Westphalia to Moscow

June 6, 2012

Putin's Arms Sales to Assad - BUSINESS is BUSINESS

Putin’s Arms Sales to Assad – BUSINESS is BUSINESS (Photo credit: FreedomHouse)

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,
“In times of human massacres, wise men and women develop great ideas. History in the making from Westphalia to Moscow
While all eyes are on the economic gloom spreading on a global scale, analysts are expecting a policy vision from the EU summit, clarity in the QE3 expectation from the FED, a highlight from China on its transforming easy export into internal development.
It is obvious that Greece, Spain and Italy are becoming impending and pressing issues, therefore markets can’t wait for fiscal measures to be put in place to tackle the problems.

Rather a monetary decision to introduce the weak euro as a kin to the strong euro is the best device we can project to calm markets and avoid a cataclysm.
As for the FED, one can expect a revised and more limited extension of the twist operation, but not a true easing, as time is not ripe for this, having president Obama lost his chance to apply a bigger amount to develop spending.

From here I expect the horse bet of the Obama team for reelection to become foreign policy and an incremental tough handling of the Iranian file, while offering a coddle on the Syrian theater.  

Chinese policy makers will be dealing on their internal moves to elect the nomenclatural elite and go through a shaky cycle in developing business with international trade and partners.
So what will be the hot topic for the summer? Iran or Syria ? or Both ?
It is understood that the IAEA will have talks with Iran soon and that the P5+1 will have a new round also in Moscow. Expectations are very weak and my perception is that we will go on strengthened sanctions by the EU for Oil and the US for blockade to be imposed from July onward.
So the main event will be from now on, the Syrian transition, as we know about Russian flexibility and availability to find a way out of the actual mess.
Mr. Kissinger lately wrote about Westphalia and the humanitarian intervention, and Mr. Putin seems a knight and custodian of that order laying the foundation of the nation state sovereignty.
Yet this is not anymore the case in our modern times, from here I think that Putin will call on a conference for Syria in Moscow immediately after the friends for Syria conference in Paris.
The conference of Moscow will host international players, the UNSC countries, European powers, ME countries, Arab league countries, and other major Asian and Australasian players. The talks will agree to transform the Annan mission in a peace securing concept , adding more troops up to 15000, where Russians will be a major part, securing the WMD deposits and creating safety nets on ground to threatened communities.
Russia will offer exile to all the Assad clan in Sochi, and a negotiated transition will develop in Syria until the Syrian population will obtain its historic and universal rights and aspirations.
A model for transition can be as follows :  a triumvirate will be in charge after the departure of the Assad clan, composed by the vice president female representing the old republic, an Alawite officer not related to Assad family representing the honor of the military, and a representative of the Syrian opposition.
The triumvirate will order immediate halt of all hostilities, a return of all soldiers to the same army with full guarantee, a reshuffle in army posts and a neutral standing of the institutions versus all communities, it will dissolve the parliament and call for a referendum to establish a new constitution. Municipal elections will take place in December and general elections to follow in the spring.

Beside this conference will set the precedent that in some geographic areas, there is momentum also for outside thinking of the nation state pillar.

Tackling the Iranian issue will follow suit in upcoming posts.
“ Westphalia signed a new era of international peace, although followed by major wars, Moscow will sign a new era of political intelligence and it will not be followed by any war “        

Thank you,