Greetings and Good Day,
“ In the mosaic of world nations, usually events unfold not as expectations”
Mixed US data and European intense recession are generating a mechanism of uncertainty that is affecting BRIC countries and other major industrial countries and economies worldwide.
It is unknown how developments will move forward, as credible planning is lacking and being replaced by a day by day decision making.
So while observers and markets are in apprehension, we have some theaters moving into predictable horizons.
It is common sense to expect a reformist approach in Egypt after the presidential elections that will put civil rights, universal principles, prosperity and better distribution of wealth on top of the agenda.
In Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, central bankers are waiting for a political signal and protection in order to act. However losing time and waiting until the completion of the Euro edifice (fiscal and monetary actions) will mean fomenting volatility and recession further. Much better to take the initiative and introduce the Pedul a currency kin to the Euro.
I do believe also that the Iranian regime will be severely hit by the new round of sanctions , although this will not diminish the determination of the Ayatollah to go their way in projecting power. It is unclear what will be their moves in the coming trimester, but we can imagine they will resort to further rhetoric while trying to control losses in the domestic arena, in the debilitated Syrian ally and in the ineffective Hezbollah controlled cabinet in Beirut.
In my view, I tend to consider the efforts of the UNSC to meet in Geneva with other powers and try to sponsor a transition solution in Syria as very dynamic and worth of praise. Unfortunately the Assad clan is already in a war deployment and there is no way they will relinquish power without being displaced by brute force.
While it is clear that the Assad clan is losing control on an incremental trend, it is expected that the upper hand will evolve to favor the opposition.
Supply and training will aid the opposition to gain direct control on geographic areas and to link different networks; therefore the upcoming month will undoubtedly generate much better exposure and brilliant results by the opposition.
Obviously external intervention by Turkey to establish buffer zones and to erase military objectives will be much on demand by the opposition in order to accelerate the demise of Assad and lessen the suffering of the Syrian population.
WMD control will be extremely important to achieve, and we do learn that there are more than a dozen of sites that may require an elevated number of sorties and troops to be secured or neutralized. Maybe this is the reason for the lengthy agony and the preference to allot to covert actions better chances.
A transition is required but it has to be scored and settled in absence of Assad and his clan, in order to deliver to the Syrians their national aspirations.
“When a fate of a regime is signed, exile remains the best option for physical survival”
- Syria violence escalates as US seeks turning point (thehimalayantimes.com)
- From Westphalia to Moscow (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Defining Moment in Syria (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- U.S. concerned Israel may launch attacks on Syrian WMD sites (blacklistednews.com)
- Gunmen storm pro-Assad Syrian TV channel (news.yahoo.com)
- Putin told Israel he is not obligated to Syria’s Assad, senior officials say (warsclerotic.wordpress.com)
- Assad says Syria in a “real state of war” (dailystar.com.lb)
- Syria crisis: Kofi Annan proposes unity government – live updates (guardian.co.uk)
- Assad reportedly offered exile in Russia (timesofisrael.com)