b2b

December 26, 2013

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy

Chinese Brush for Writing Calligraphy (Photo credit: epSos.de)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Dated 2 January 2014

Alfred Thayer Mahan was a United States Navy flag officer, geostrategist, and historian, who has been called “the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century.” His concept of “sea power” was based on the idea that countries with greater naval power will have greater worldwide impact” Wikipedia

In navigating the Chinese civilization from its early beginning to the latest developments, one can only express an immense interest in the richness of the process and the ramifications of this, into world affairs through centuries.

Since the early Heaven’s Mandate to the Warren States and up to the Popular Republic, progress never stopped in debating ideas and policies.  Confucius, Zhuanghzi ,  Laozi, Han Fei and other prominent thinkers  or politicians as Chairman Mao, Zhou en Lai, Deng Xiaoping, up to President Xi nowadays, the miracle  continues.

Humanity established in the Chinese hinterland with a desire to develop a decent life, and it grew its sustaining aspects from agriculture to satellite navigational systems.

The Chinese human evolution curve determined a US policy called “Pivot to Asia” where assets are placed to monitor and or counter recent events represented in the Chinese maritime expansion.

In truth Chinese exports from the eastern coast as much as the trip of gold from west to east are all necessary to the widening of the trade platform on global basis, hence there is no surprise in the Chinese desire to protect its own sea lanes by a vanguard  fleet of vessels and submarines.

I imagine one day the Chinese military fleet paying port calls to Alexandria and to Rio de Janeiro, alike of a Chinese exchange of knowhow with the Iranian Stock Market exchange which is souring since June 2013.

The connection in Chinese and Iranian affairs is very positive and consequential for the human development; therefore rapprochement between Eurasian powers and its effects on western global institutional model should be thoughtfully updated.

Perhaps Sea entrepreneurs will plan soon a Luxurious cruise from Saadiyat Island to Kish to Beirut, Bali and to Shanghai docking in front of the Peace Hotel.

Masters of thought are keen to consider that present difficulties in the Chinese and Iranian economy, should be transformed into global opportunities rather than a local exploitation of regional crisis, to cement the national edifice of governors incapable to propose the right solutions.

Internal duality is in the essence of the Oriental magnitude and philosophy: is it predominance or openness the thread leading to acceptance and peace?

Alexander the Great, as per novels, ended in the Oriental Paradise of Latte and Honey, a great warrior appeased in the kingdom of sweetness.  A course if reversed where eastern flow of advancement will proceed to western Hemisphere will necessarily at some point accuse either fatigue or will be diluted with locals.

The latest policies announced in the Chinese polity and the recent radical changes in the Iranian national panorama, do tell us that security and consumption are intertwined.

Supporting china and Iran to secure peacefully their own countries and trace their own roles on the world platform is not an easy task, yet not an impossible one even.

This will necessitate a proactive western flexibility that extends beyond conservative thinking and usual books.

Security for all includes Israel and the Palestinian nation also, therefore the track is solid that a reinforcement of military assets when used with purpose, will bring about intelligent compromises, or else it will wreak havoc.

The oriental duality between the Quds Force and Rouhani’s vision is much similar in its visibility, to the diversity between Confucius and Chairman Mao.  The nuclear file handling breaking through a bomb? and the encroachment in the seas and the skies leading to hegemony or to acceptance?

Yielding results in China and Iran, consists for both, in finding their internal unified way to deliver to the world a method and a synchrony.

We know that Russia secured an oil exploration deal with the Syrian State represented by a murderer who lacks legitimacy to represent his people in a new mandate; and this is an example for Lebanon to follow suit by securing a deal for oil offshore.

In Lebanon the Taef accord had different brokers, the two most gravitational were Syria and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but now that Syria is under strife, it is obvious that the Lebanese national accord should be revised.

Phoenicians sailed north, south and west, as much as Romans reached England, eventually both succumbed to History.

The Lebanese theater is so complex, and my proposal in the national accord is to have a rotation in the roles of PM and speaker while enhancing the powers of the president by adding  the option of calling for general elections whenever the political climate doesn’t allow an exit to political parties. The constitution should be revised and the referenda need to take place on defining matters. Defending the social tissue and coexistence will be the primary mission of the Lebanese constitutional legality.

Maybe the historic reason behind the conservation of the Persian and Chinese duality is because they both didn’t overstretch in becoming maritime powers.

The challenge for China and Iran is to sail in history in the modern era, transforming the duality into a creative diversity. A dilemma they share with the Lebanese in need for a neutral government to revise the constitution and with Israel incapable to hand a nation to the Palestinians.

Security is a requirement for all, from Beirut to Beijing, ( b2b).

“ The need to record information from large business transactions while traveling the seas pushed Phoenicians to abandon the complicated Sumerian cuneiform system and develop their own set of characters……… Although these wealthy traders dominated the seas, they were not as fortunate on land. For nearly half a century, ancient Phoenicia was occupied by foreign powers.”  http://www.netplaces.com/middle-east-guide/the-cradle-of-civilization/the-phoenicians.htm

Thank You,

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The FED’s DAO

December 14, 2013

Image representing Wikipedia as depicted in Cr...

Image via CrunchBase

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

“The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It resulted in the threat of total collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and downturns in stock markets around the world. In many areas, the housing market also suffered, resulting in evictions, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment.” Wikipedia about Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2008.

 

At the first beginning of the economic crisis in 2008, there was a debate about the role of the public institutions in setting a path for recovery, where the private sector showed clearly feeble initiative and a lot of impotence.

 

Debates were recorded, and many questions were raised about the way how the state should interfere to help the economy.

 

Quantitative Easing was launched on several reprisals, and the objective was set that to counter the housing crisis used to mark to market, the correct approach was to recover the labor sector.

 

At the time all public efforts were necessary and led to a better consumer confidence today, although the cost is an immense debt that perhaps can be adjusted only by growth, capability to project persuading power without committing in draining expenses, budget maneuver and fiscal vision.

 

Today we are at a crossroad; it is high time for the taper to start as the requirement is to move forward for a new beginning.

 

It is a fact that there are anomalies in the job market, registered especially, in presently comparing the U3 and the U6 after decades of statistics, showing a trend in that comparison. It goes without saying that easing the money spurs a spirit of relaxation rather of sweat and desire to startup, hence the difference between U3 and U 6 in my perception.

 

Therefore the approach isn’t anymore to mark a level in jobless percentage at 7 % but to have a market consumption that will revive the entrepreneurial desire to create self employment and enterprise.

 

This is the Fed’s DAO.

 

From above markets must rest their demands and be convinced that the taper had already started, what remains to be verified is to move forward steering the velocity and the intensity.

 

Next week in the meeting Federal Reserve Committee, a slow yet gradual and predictable taper will start by reducing initially the buying by 5 billion dollars.

 

The stock market will not be negatively influenced not even the US exports, and my opinion is that the EUR/ USD will be ranging between 1.32 / 1.34 during 2014, and the stock market will see the Dow at record highs of 19000.

 

Business will be as usual and the next taper will be announced in February.

 

Wishing Happy Holidays to the International markets,

 

“ A white horse is not a horse “  EDX.ORG ( Chinese Course )

 

Thank you

 

 

 

 


Pax Persiana

December 11, 2013

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran

An enlargeable map of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and good Day,

This is an open letter to President Hassan Rouhani of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“As for those who own, indeed, that it was made by God, and yet ascribe to it not a temporal but only a creational beginning …” De Civitate Dei contra Paganos, Augustine of Hippo ( ref. wikipedia)

Mr. President,

It is a source of comfort to note that in a relatively short period of time, your efforts and vision managed to bring a positive result, by agreeing on a first compromise with the P5+1; with the aim to secure and ensure sane governance, for the geopolitical area of the Middle East and the Gulf.

The purpose of my letter is to be transparent, in supporting a road map to achieve the rest of the necessary steps, which will project an evolution of open ended regional crisis to an era of a possible Pax Persiana.

As you might agree, moving forward is pivotal to stir events into the right direction of economic growth and regional security.

This task is clearly epic and requires much discipline, patience and openness, qualities that are in the core of the Persian soul.

The basics of advancement should be formed on the edifice of modernity and reform, where a general concept of security for all must prevail.

While I understand that you will be absorbed by national policies oriented to restore hope and spur opportunities in a very young Iranian population, I do care that you succeed in resolving the outstanding with the UAE in the three islands issue and you develop a regional energy/security  strategy that will take into consideration local aspects such as the Kurdish Autonomy in the recent pipeline to Turkey.

Local aspects abound in the Middle East and your efforts can stop or end prematurely if not in cognizance with each and every local reality.

The truth Mr. President is that your capability to broker the recent deal in Geneva elevates your nation/state to the level of a peace maker rather than a regional spoiler.

This is unprecedented per se’.

All the tactics elaborated so far in generating an Iranian position in the world stage, should be immediately updated and composed around a scheme of acceptance and prosperity.

The fist unclenched, is what we look for, in Lebanon at first.

You are well into politics and the game of the nations to realize that there is a great need to start somewhere, in order to transform the insufficient interim deal into a comprehensive agreement.

The time frame is short, as there are almost six months that can be renewed, yet without a further consolidation, the achievements of Geneva, might well be reduced to only ink.

While the Syrian theater will see the winter coming, as the imminent opening of the highway to the coast that will enable the transportation of CW on board of the Ship furnace, there is little else to mention whenever we agree that Geneva 2 must free all prisoners, open humanitarian corridors, approve aid to refugees and agree on a cease fire in waiting for political designs to be discussed for Geneva 3.

It is already evident that the foreign policy of the IR of Iran is much dynamic, however without a focus on the Lebanese theater and a satisfying solution to the present standstill, there can’t be a true Iranian evolution.

What is required is your cooperation, to help on a new neutral cabinet in Lebanon made out of professionals and independents that will ensure the presidential elections to take place on time, and address urgent social needs. Institutional matters such as a modern electoral law and general elections will be handled on a later stage.

Pax Persiana can become reality from vision; it only needs to start making peace from Beirut.

“Indeed, Allah is forgiving and Merciful… Then deliver him to his place of safety….So as long as they are upright toward you, be upright toward them” Surah At-Tawbah (Arabic: سورة التوبة, Sūratu at-Tawbah, Sura 9 .

Thank you,