October | 2013 | The Second Semester

Zip in Splendor

October 29, 2013

English: The logo of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Readers,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I was zipping past wonders, zooming through splendor. But I hadn’t a clue if I was actually getting anywhere”, Frank Bruni

Following the latest economic data it is a common assumption by observers to expect the tapering of the FED to start next year. In the US, the Jobs revealed that construction is better than before, yet the durable goods were not up to desires. In Europe although Spanish recession seems to have ended, the Italian case is becoming a major hurdle for the Euro area revamp. It goes without saying that an economic revival might spur demand and generate an incentive to Italian exports and job creation; however this scenario will most likely take some more trimesters. Whenever the US and Europe lack in the locomotive role, usually it was the Asian tigers that assumed the lead, but we know that China will reveal soon unprecedented reforms, and Japan will need a drastic social/birth reform to exit its lost decades.

From above it is impossible only for Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and few other nations ( Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa) to lead the world demand and manufacturing , therefore the FED decision needs to focus on the main requirement and perception of the markets.

The world needs a leader with vision and in the total absence of illuminated leadership; all indicators are deteriorating the sentiment of the markets. The FED needs to taper immediately in a gradual and predictable path, starting with 5 billion dollars to be announced tomorrow.

The problem is that while the US administration is vehemently supporting the launch of the new care system revealed to be chaotic, it is sensibly showing ditto interest to better distribute the richness, concentrated in 95 % of the wellness in the hands of 1 % of the population.

Will the FED act independently from its owners the financial masters of the Universe?

This brings us to help the US understand what can be its objectives in a divisive Syrian environment. Eventually the US should pursue the territorial integrity of Syria managed by a transitional government that will ensure true representation and a better guidance for the Syrian population. Obviously as a first step, eliminating Chemical or other weapons from the theater is a very effective approach; although partial and very much incomplete. Ideally Geneva 2 could be a conference that will build on Geneva 1 where already the idea of a transitional cabinet was adopted, but it seems that chances for the gathering to take place are diminishing drastically. Be this for the simultaneous Iranian track of nuclear negotiation rising regional suspicions or because of the initial bad positioning of several powers.

While Ukraine and Turkey will highly benefit from a deal for cooperation in Gas, it is thought that the actual Russian agitation leaning towards an agreement of sort between the US and Iran, is further complicating the perspective, which is in dire need of simplicity.

So while the KSA is announcing a shift in relations with the US instead of increasing its purchase of US bonds, and Israel’s counter proposal consists of allowing the Iranian regime to acquire enriched Uranium from a foreign country to be used for its peaceful research, analysts were bogged in the dark, as they could not have details of the Iranian power point presentation with the 5 plus one.

Considering that the US cost of a military campaign to destroy or retard significantly, the Iranian nuclear program is prohibitive, and considering that any Israeli unilateral step will not be as effective as it should, all eyes are on the time needed for Iran to break out. But hold on! Will Iran break out with the actual cost and benefit formula or it will maintain the status-quo allowing it to have an immense say in several countries stretching from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Although 2014 is the year of elections par excellence in Latin America, Lebanon, Syria, the US mid term and in other nations, my expectations are that a lull of nothing will appear on the radars.

To sum up, fighting will continue in Syria in a tit for tat; however no important changes will take place and the political conference will need to wait. Assad will opt to renew his mandate without having the option of holding elections.

The Iranian Supreme leader will exit his seclusion with a result of his meditation where the status-quo is the best he can afford, spinning without break out, while suffering under sanctions. He will never understand how he can assure the Israeli people, or how he will initiate a new sauce in the Iranian economy to be linked to the world trade.

The US will play for time until a fix in the economy will be brought in, by a leader with a clear vision and sufficient political power, who will manage a negotiation with the financial masters of the universe to set better terms in running world affairs.

The Russian leadership will watch the show of international relations running, trying from time to time to upgrade its role to principal actor, while most important issues at home (social reforms, economy, future role of Russia in world affairs, etc,) are still unresolved.

Israel will drill and drill and drill, but intimately it knows that without a peaceful and painful outcome with the Arabs and a sincere effort to denuclearize the ME, the Canaanites will need to survive the existential identity and protract their security from their shadows.

China will necessitate at least 40 or 50 years to generate a political alternative to the Communist party; meanwhile it will try to balance its cities and countryside, with a peculiar sight on resources, and simultaneously seek to increase its sea lanes while arming itself with the best available weapons and technologies.

Finally and unless we help the military regime in Egypt to start the path of openness and look ahead for the next liberal decade, the undesired consequences of today will create a tantrum of deltas in the Nile that will endanger the entire African scheme.

“I was getting anywhere, without any clue. Then I zoomed through past wonders, to realize that I need to zip in splendor”.

Thank you,