December | 2011 | The Second Semester

2012

December 20, 2011

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In his language section, William Safire used to say, forecasters job is to forecast”

Anyone is willing to take the challenge?

It is of great concern for many policy makers how to model their nations approach to the fiscal year 2012.

As already mentioned we have many elections that will take place, and now we have some successions also to be implemented either in North Korea, China, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran.

We know that the US introduced the HARP 2 as a proved mechanism to support homeowners and this is a further step to stabilize and put on track a healing economy.

We also know that European nations failed so far to succeed in stabilizing the financial framework on the old continent. Even if many funds will be diverted to the IMF, as a way to circumvent the law impeding the ECB to become a lender of last resort to governments or to private banks.

Will Spain withdraw from the Euro, or will Monte dei Paschi be nationalized?

Someone proposed adherence to the European fiscal criteria, and everyone knows this will fail.

The crisis in Europe is a window of opportunity that must be used to transform an environment of liability and defeatism, into a rare possibility to put together a plan for major unity and expedite the federal Europe, based on modernism.

The margin of maneuver is always tighter for the Illuminati and the financial masters of the universe to act and to pull the strings in maneuvers to save the governability in our global world.

The US should find its soul for inventions and bravery in pioneering, Europe should definitely celebrate the second largest pole in the world grouping different languages, ethnicities and amalgam eventually the diversity into a relaxed togetherness.

This can come, through sound conversations tackling reforms in Taxation, Pensions, Immigration, startup holiday regulation, budget control and health care with wise spending.

As the crisis in Europe will persist and intensify and the Arab spring will not lead to excellent democracies, an arch of instability will stretch on several geographic zones and theaters especially in Syria.

Assuming that US efforts to generate an accord with the different Afghan factions including willing Taliban will become a reality, I tend to see the Saudi / Iranian unequivocal rapprochement as key to stabilize the oil industry and the Gulf in the coming year.

Prince Bandar might well realize that a good bargain is an excellent way to move forward.

Analysts disagree on the Iranian willingness to negotiate or to find solutions, but it is very likely that a patient Saudi effort based on common interests to safeguard Oil and the Gulf collectivity will reach to the IRGC commanders and breach into Mr. Profile sense of vision.

The world is in front of a mechanism of diverging interests that will ultimately lead to a conflagration, and there is no better financial arm to dissuade and pressure China, Iran and Russia than a crisis in the Euro area.

I expect the Iranians to become feelers versus the west and to define a grand bargain with the US and the masters of the universe based on mutuality and interests.

The regime in Iran has different factions, the multifaceted opposition, the bureaucracy, the multiplicity of the IRGC, the populace and the Mullahs. Again I predict a wise commander to be facilitated and take the rein of command/ get elected within the Persian peoples.

Only collective interests will guide the defense policies in 2012 and be a common denominator to reinforce peace.

Israel will evaluate effectively all options, and the best one is still to covertly manipulate all assets to entice the Iranian elite to compromise and get involved in world and regional affairs.

Rhetoric will not pay on the long run, as it is only a way to garner internal support and try to postpone the disintegration of totalitarian regimes.

The rehabilitation of Indian and Chinese economies, will go through the Syrian dictator demise, either helped by a Qatari/Arab brokered accord or by an Iranian desire to reach out to Sunni grassroots.

Whenever diplomacy will not succeed, it is clear that if not delivered peacefully,the regime change in Syria will be implemented by any other mean, and this is in conformity with the national interests of all players excluding the Assad clan.

So here is one : Bashar Assad will cease to be the president of Syria in the first semester of 2012.

Here is two : Hamas and Fatah will create a common platform and work for a peace deal with Israel for the best interest of the Palestinian population in desire for the state of Palestine.

Considering that the IRGC will assess its policies from the prism of survival and acceptance, the Lebanese theater will not under any circumstance be subject to any violence, rather talks for a a deal with the STL in 2012 will be the surprise that will follow the death of the supreme leader.

In presence of a US healing economy and a distress in the EU economy, which are both converging for the geopolitical interest of the west, global institutions will be guided to reforms and stability.

Hence the Iranian projection of power and sphere of influence will ultimately be what the Saudis will do to put the nuclear issue only into research.

BRICS countries will follow Russia suit, to adjust with the Euro crisis and the banks nationalizing process, and many nations will bandwagon.

Turkey will overcome its ailing status quo and an aggressive approach will tutor the interests of this country managing two identities eastern and western, paving the way for a new foreign policy where the elite will deal with different regional problems a way to affirm Turkish international status and presence.

Lebanese Hezbollah will evolve and come to terms with logic and rationality, and a big surprise might be in the making for the upcoming general elections in Lebanon.

Lebanon a nation condemned to coexistence and to tolerance, as much as Israel is a nation condemned to keep watching even when everyone is sleeping.

“Rapida, elegante, fuggente, imprevedibile. Una luce, la gioia, 2012 ”

Thank you ,