Greetings and Good Day,
“With their mistake, I buy mistakes, from their disheartening words, I suffer;
Blood spurts out of my wound, how can I dry the water?” The Boat, Nimā Yushij , نیما یوشیج
In an objective analysis related to the achievements of the Ahmadinejad presidency,
we can easily realize that poverty raised in Iran as much as the national GNP dropped
Radicalism in Iran represented by the government of the Revolution Guards and the
populist Ahmadinejad can be referred to as an immense waste.
Looking also to the political ramifications of the late Iranian projection of power,
we can heartedly be touched by the huge waste, when we look at major errors committed by
the Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki. And by the Syrian Bashar Assad who miserably failed to advance
his nation into the road of modernity.
The crossroad of all this mismanagement is definitely best represented in the Lebanese Hezbollah
which altered the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 and the Israeli failure in 2006, into a waste of the gains,
by pointing the rifle north and extending the lines of supply from 80 km to 500 km.
Lebanon is threatened to become a hell of fire and theater of internal strife.
It is well known that accountability can’t be applied extensively in the Middle East,
because of arrogance and corruption, but can at least merit be visible and emerge?
Meritocracy is one of the guidelines and principles that must set the formation boundaries
of the new Lebanese cabinet. Two personalities are to be mentioned and these are Minister
Marwan Charbel and General Abbas Ibrahim of the General Security.
Whenever meritocracy is one guideline of the new cabinet, then the rest can be a focus
on the short duration, the number of ministers and the possible achievements.
It is known that the new cabinet will be in place until the election of the new president.
However, both issues are not intertwined formally, in the sense that a grand bargain will pave
the way for the cabinet.
Definitely not, and this is why the talk about a cabinet made out from the national dialogue committee
is not reasonable nor possible.
Here the chances of President Amin Gemayel, General Aoun, Mr Sleiman Franjieh and
Dr Geagea to be elected are very finite and slim if not impossible. Let them rest their
divisive efforts and cooperate for once.
So the equation in the new cabinet is the number of ministers and the more we have, the complexity
will be higher, therefore the perfect number is ten.
Considering 2 shiite , 2 sunni, and one druze, 2 maronite, one catholic, one orthodox and one Armenian.
The second equation is that the new cabinet will require paving the way for a second TAEF,
to adjust the harmony of the national cohesion and to impede any destruction of the Lebanese
coexistence.This is not because Taef 1 is wrong, but because we will insert few clauses to make it
acceptable by everyone.
As we know there are 4 major issues upcoming, the Geneva 2, the nuclear file of Iran,
the Israeli Palestinian talks, and the tribunal for Lebanon.
The proposal for the new cabinet of Lebanon can consist of two options,
one I already wrote about on this blog some time ago, made out of 10 ministers and formed
mainly by entrepreneurs, and the second who is more consequential is as follows:
Mr Tammam Salam PM ( economy, information, justice), Mr Adnan Kassar ( Finance minister, Culture),
General Ibrahim ( sanity, labour, foreign affairs, agriculture), General Charbel (Interior),
Mr Hussein Husseini (relations with the parliament, environment) ,
Mr Samir Moukbel ( deputy pm, defense, justice, communication ),
Mr Nazim Khoury ( tourism , public works), Mr Wael Abou Faour
( social affairs, education, sports), Mr Abraham Dedeyan ( Industry),
Mr Joe Takla ( energy, displaced).
This combination is very balanced and the second step will be to submit to the parliament the
program, and here I recommend that, to the declaration of Baabda a phrase shall be added.
Where the sanctuary of the state will be defended to consolidate coexistence and amalgam all the
Lebanese strata by any form, even through unconventional popular methods based on resistance
where the state reputes necessary.
This will lead us to the vote and chances are very strong that it will be voted, especially
if we consider that there is a precedent where the socialist party gave freedom to vote
during Mr Kamal Jumblat positioning in the early seventies.
With the calculated approach of the new cabinet ( articles debating the constitutional framework of
the formation abound, yet thinkers and writers fail to give the appropriate solution, for the emergency
Lebanon is witnessing) all players will be oriented to the new president election including the
Iranian excellent mediator Rouhani.
There are only two names with chances to be elected Lebanese president and these are
Mr Joseph Tarabey and General Jean Kahwaji.
My preference goes to Tarabey because Lebanon will need to go on Taef 2 (rotation between Pm and speaker and reinforcement for the president powers by calling on early general elections, plus the introduction of the referenda institution).
Taef 2 will have excellent effects on relations between Iran and KSA and it will mean the true
transfer of all files from the IRGC to the administration of president Rouhani.
“Nadda was by the water spring, and I asked her why she was not around, she looked at me with
those eyes, and she wanted to talk to me but she did not want to, o’Naddaa”
O Naddaa Lebanese song, by Sabah, lyrics Mansour Rahbani , Music Assi Rahbani