The new cabinet of lebanon

January 3, 2014

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“With their mistake, I buy mistakes, from their disheartening words, I suffer;
Blood spurts out of my wound, how can I dry the water?” The Boat, Nimā Yushij , نیما یوشیج

In an objective analysis related to the achievements of the Ahmadinejad presidency,
we can easily realize that poverty raised in Iran as much as the national GNP dropped
drastically.
Radicalism in Iran represented by the government of the Revolution Guards and the
populist Ahmadinejad can be referred to as an immense waste.
Looking also to the political ramifications of the late Iranian projection of power,
we can heartedly be touched by the huge waste, when we look at major errors committed by
the Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki. And by the Syrian Bashar Assad who miserably failed to advance
his nation into the road of modernity.
The crossroad of all this mismanagement is definitely best represented in the Lebanese Hezbollah
which altered the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 and the Israeli failure in 2006, into a waste of the gains,
by pointing the rifle north and extending the lines of supply from 80 km to 500 km.
Lebanon is threatened to become a hell of fire and theater of internal strife.
It is well known that accountability can’t be applied extensively in the Middle East,
because of arrogance and corruption, but can at least merit be visible and emerge?
Meritocracy is one of the guidelines and principles that must set the formation boundaries
of the new Lebanese cabinet. Two personalities are to be mentioned and these are Minister
Marwan Charbel and General Abbas Ibrahim of the General Security.
Whenever meritocracy is one guideline of the new cabinet, then the rest can be a focus
on the short duration, the number of ministers and the possible achievements.
It is known that the new cabinet will be in place until the election of the new president.
However, both issues are not intertwined formally, in the sense that a grand bargain will pave
the way for the cabinet.
Definitely not, and this is why the talk about a cabinet made out from the national dialogue committee
is not reasonable nor possible.
Here the chances of President Amin Gemayel, General Aoun, Mr Sleiman Franjieh and
Dr Geagea to be elected are very finite and slim if not impossible. Let them rest their
divisive efforts and cooperate for once.
So the equation in the new cabinet is the number of ministers and the more we have, the complexity
will be higher, therefore the perfect number is ten.
Considering 2 shiite , 2 sunni, and one druze, 2 maronite, one catholic, one orthodox and one Armenian.
The second equation is that the new cabinet will require paving the way for a second TAEF,
to adjust the harmony of the national cohesion and to impede any destruction of the Lebanese
coexistence.This is not because Taef 1 is wrong, but because we will insert few clauses to make it
acceptable by everyone.
As we know there are 4 major issues upcoming, the Geneva 2, the nuclear file of Iran,
the Israeli Palestinian talks, and the tribunal for Lebanon.
The proposal for the new cabinet of Lebanon can consist of two options,
one I already wrote about on this blog some time ago, made out of 10 ministers and formed
mainly by entrepreneurs, and the second who is more consequential is as follows:
Mr Tammam Salam PM ( economy, information, justice), Mr Adnan Kassar ( Finance minister, Culture),
General Ibrahim ( sanity, labour, foreign affairs, agriculture), General Charbel (Interior),
Mr Hussein Husseini (relations with the parliament, environment) ,
Mr Samir Moukbel ( deputy pm, defense, justice, communication ),
Mr Nazim Khoury ( tourism , public works), Mr Wael Abou Faour
( social affairs, education, sports), Mr Abraham Dedeyan ( Industry),
Mr Joe Takla ( energy, displaced).

This combination is very balanced and the second step will be to submit to the parliament the
program, and here I recommend that, to the declaration of Baabda a phrase shall be added.
Where the sanctuary of the state will be defended to consolidate coexistence and amalgam all the
Lebanese strata by any form, even through unconventional popular methods based on resistance
where the state reputes necessary.
This will lead us to the vote and chances are very strong that it will be voted, especially
if we consider that there is a precedent where the socialist party gave freedom to vote
during Mr Kamal Jumblat positioning in the early seventies.
With the calculated approach of the new cabinet ( articles debating the constitutional framework of
the formation abound, yet thinkers and writers fail to give the appropriate solution, for the emergency
Lebanon is witnessing) all players will be oriented to the new president election including the
Iranian excellent mediator Rouhani.
There are only two names with chances to be elected Lebanese president and these are
Mr Joseph Tarabey and General Jean Kahwaji.
My preference goes to Tarabey because Lebanon will need to go on Taef 2 (rotation between Pm and speaker and reinforcement for the president powers by calling on early general elections, plus the introduction of the referenda institution).
Taef 2 will have excellent effects on relations between Iran and KSA and it will mean the true
transfer of all files from the IRGC to the administration of president Rouhani.

“Nadda was by the water spring, and I asked her why she was not around, she looked at me with
those eyes, and she wanted to talk to me but she did not want to, o’Naddaa”
O Naddaa Lebanese song, by Sabah, lyrics Mansour Rahbani , Music Assi Rahbani

Thank You,

Advertisements

A Sophisticated Eclipse

September 27, 2013

Syria

Syria (Photo credit: Yishac – Isaac Alvarez i Brugada)

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

As observers are expecting the UN Security Council, to finalize the draft resolution with strong wording on Syria by today, analysts are working hard to determine the future evolution of the Iranian nuclear file.

 

It is very comforting to have the Syrian crisis and the Iranian pending file proceeding towards a desired diplomatic breakthrough.

 

It remains to be seen how effectively events will unfold and we all look for a positive reflection on the Syrian refugees and Iranian population.

 

In Syria Mr. Assad should learn from the Sudanese President, who defied the international community for long, and now he managed to divide his country in two Sudan,and to witness present popular uprisings threatening the essence of the state. Sudan’s Al Bashir didn’t accomplish any significant reform and he only focused on oil profits.

 

And although Sudan and Syria have a different social composition, yet acting presidents are behaving in a similar way.

 

What President Assad needs to do is to consign the CW, repent & go to exile and for the sake of Syrian well being and of the entire humanity to facilitate the dawn of a new republic in Syria, or else he will higher the risks of his unknown fate.

 

Unknown fate! Let’s not forget that the strong resolution will mention that individuals responsible for the chemical attack in Syria will be prosecuted.

 

Often a sophisticated eclipse is much more remembered than a lot of shining rays.

 

Lebanon which is hosting a significant portion of refugees is in process to form a new government, where options are reduced to a cabinet for all or a cabinet of last resort.

 

Major aspirations are in place to have a government for all after the recent opening of Hezbollah expressed in the last speech of the general secretary Mr. Nasrallah.

 

It happens also that Lebanon has an extended mandate of its own parliament, which fact is playing against those citing the parliament representation, as only parameter for the new government formation.

 

In truth with the election of the Lebanese president approaching, the new cabinet “for all” can become holding the entire constitutional bottoms of power, hence in its formation there should be inclusion also of civil society components not resting in the extended parliament.

 

From above I see the upcoming formula as a cabinet of 30 ministers, where there will be 4 groups, 10 ministers for Hezbollah allies (8 March), 10 ministers for the prime minister and allies (14 March), 4 ministers for the president of the republic and the PSP, and 6 ministers for independents belonging to the social stream outside the parliament (intellectuals, bankers, captains of industry, business people, women in career, etc).

 

What is required today before tomorrow is that the PM designate will refresh his efforts in this direction by consulting again with the Lebanese mosaic.

 

It is also required that the Lebanese president during his visit to KSA next week will elaborate on this formula that will ultimately represent the extra mile effort to form the cabinet.

 

I am confident by now that within the next meeting of the 5 plus one and Iran in Geneva in October, the Lebanese will have formed the long awaited cabinet.

 

“Where objectivity, independence, clarity, integrity and valor persist, inevitably growth and prosperity will proceed”.

 

Thank You,

 

 

 


National Interest old and new

September 16, 2013

150 px

150 px (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“No matter whether a victory or a peace agreement terminates the civil war, it has to be decided, which demands of the parties to the conflict are to be implemented partially or completely. Post-civil war orders institutionalize these decisions and differ in the respective extent they realize only the demands of one side or balance the competing claims.” One-sided or balanced: Which post-civil war order secures the intrastate peace?  Prof Margit Bussman.

In an effort to put forward a better understanding, of global affairs and international relations, without doubt, the framework agreed upon between the US and Russia vis a’ vis the Syrian chemical file, represents a precious sample to discern.

Academics will examine thoroughly the various phases that led to the framework, and will write about this cornerstone in diplomacy, on which a geopolitical edifice of balancing interests in the ME can take shape.

It is understood that a US/Russian draft will be sent to the OPCW and followed up by a UNSC resolution that will technically accelerate the rhythm of the international control on Syrian CW. This endeavor is immense and necessitates a major support from all thinkers, although this agreement can be exploited by the Assad clan to stall and gain time.  In practice a process started and it will move forward until the accomplishment of the mission.

The agreement by itself is not a political solution, but an intermediary step to pave the way for a platform to become visible where a compromise of sort can be declared to tutor the Syrian population for the coming decades.

An international forum such as Geneva 2 is the only way to determine a Syrian political solution, and this in principle will call for the establishment of an inclusive national conference, to write a new constitution and submit it to a referendum. Afterwards a transition government can call on local elections and general elections.

The mechanism of power sharing as much as institutional checks and balances should consider the delicate balancing of minority rights and the territorial devolution and also the federal spending concept.

We all know that drought in North East Syria was a main problem as much as the true representation of clans and tribes, or other communities in the governance system, was a fireball, that the regime of Assad couldn’t handle.

In truth to persuade the collectivity and steer it during Assad son regime, a nuance of modernity and progress in some universities was applied but the old rhetoric of propaganda never evolved.

Where Assad failed to introduce reforms, a new Syrian state can only allow a flexible administrative and fiscal maneuver by some territories as a possible solution. The laic nature and the equity of the Syrian state will be the essence of the accord.

I am sure that the appropriate momentum for an accord is close even though all players should assume a different attitude. We know that Assad son has no place in the future of Syria, he killed enough people and we also know that the Alawite community will be in Syria forever.

We know that Mr. Putin is not willing to act as a sponsor to depose Assad but we also know that he will not oppose a solution where the balancing interests of the powers involved will be guaranteed.

This brings us to understand what are the Russian national interests and those of the US, furthermore to mirror the concept of national interest.

It is a fact that the elements of national interest in the era where planet earth goes global, are difficult to decipher. Since the inception of the nation/state until the Second Gulf War passing by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and by several economic challenges, the determination of national interest evolved within certain dynamics and metrics; but could not project the geopolitical thought beyond national boundaries.

Think tanks and Centers do require from analysts and collaborators to contribute in terms of advancing a national interest.

Perhaps policy makers are not attentive that there is no more national interest as it used to be.

The last episode of the agreement between the US and Russia is evidence, where isolationists and globalists in the US were diametrically opposed.

National interest used to project in international affairs an old mantra, and it used to represent a sphere of conformity, nowadays the national interest projects a balancing act between a group of entities be these nations, groups, corporations, banks or else. Hence the sphere is fashionable, colorful, sometimes opposed by the mob as unacceptable.

Examples of national interest chapters abound from the Iranian nuclear industry, to the Venezuelan oil industry, to the Russian gas industry, to the Chinese tech industry, to the German automotive industry.

The challenge of the new national interest and the modern grand strategy is that they create a new environment where the citizen is not ready yet to follow as much as institutes or thinkers alike.

Arms sales, Organic food, water and perishable or toxic items are examples of global interests where the citizen has much at risk and is behind in understanding.

The gap is between the CITIZEN who acquired technology and “whatsup” like, models of communication, social media “facebook” happenings; and between the INSTITUTIONS in control of the minutes.

The Snowden Case is the iceberg of the gap.

Efforts to bridge the international citizenry on a global scale are in place, where hundreds of directors in trillion dollars funds do elaborate development policies for new products and new markets.

Not always this mission is successful and episodes can compromise the peaceful environment and generate misgivings, qualms and worries.  From above we can realize that only a free flow of information and an immense monitoring of information are intertwined for the best advancement of humanity.

What is needed is a deep reflection of sort on the meanings of the citizen, the state, the nation and earth in an era of rapid inventions and fundamental changes.

“Information flow in an information theoretical context is the transfer of information from a variable xto a variable yin a given process. Not all flows may be desirable.” Information theory, Wikipedia

May a balanced peace take place in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Iran, Tunisia, Sudan, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and others, a regional national interest for the global citizen.

Thank you,

 


The Age of Phantom Diplomacy

September 11, 2013

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63.

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“…in the newly minted “field” of public diplomacy – a hybrid “discipline” that draws upon the social sciences, journalism, foreign language and cultural expertise. Public diplomacy is foremost a skill, like it or not, that is most effectively learned from practitioners and best acquired on the job”.

It is unprecedented in international affairs to witness such a velocity in current diplomatic happenings.

Perhaps we should call it the Age of phantom diplomacy.

Can this rapidly evolving international diplomatic climate represent a promise for a political platform in Syria or it will pave the way for military escalation?

We know that the floated Russian proposal related to the Syrian chemical weapons was welcomed by the Syrian dictator, however we still lack any detail of implementation as per Russian agenda and desire.

We know also that the draft resolution submitted by the French for consultations at the UNSC was already declined in its form by the Russians, and this leaves the international community in apprehension, as chancelleries are wondering if and when there will be a deal .

We know also that the US president in his address yesterday to the US nation stressed the importance to keep the credible military threat vivid underlining the necessity of American unity behind the strike, while giving priority to diplomacy to exhaust its energy and set a course .

We know also that on Thursday the US and Russian secretaries of state will meet.

What we ignore from all above is how the Syrians will come clean, by their acceptance of the Russian proposal, and how their tactics to stall will be deployed on the international arena, at least to have a benefit, for next year’s presidential elections in Syria. In truth the dictator will do all possible to gain a new mandate, without introducing any reform to the system, to become parliamentarian or reinforce the rights of different communities, by sharing governance and distributing on equal demographic and geographic basis, the national resources.

Nonetheless, analysts do expect a strong resolution authorizing international forces to account for, control and destroy the  storage, and all other facilities including questioning of the scientists.

Analysts expect also the Syrian criminal regime to immediately publish a list of sites , of quantities , of delivery weapons , of laboratories; and of scientists working on the chemical storage. This will go in tandem with the authorization of unfettered access of international monitoring to the CW storage in multiple sites and to laboratories declared or suspected.

Analysts do expect also that perpetrators of Chemical crimes will be brought to justice. They also expect the US and allies to keep the credible military threat coupled to enforcing a rational and secure UN mechanism to destroy CW.

It is obvious that the congress will remain seized on the issue while working also on the agenda of big issues, deficit, debt-ceiling, immigration, sanity, taxation, FED nominee, etc.

US Lawmakers in their multiple responsibilities, should express their stands on behalf of their constituencies and simultaneously create unity for national security issues.

It goes without saying that the resolute stand of the US administration is one of the main reasons for the dramatic and accelerated Russian proposal.

Although we ignore the details of the conversation between the two presidents and who was present during the meeting, which was previously canceled for the Snowden case, our desire is that this Russian proposal, will be entrusted and followed up by a political breakthrough.

It is a matter of fact that interests can intersect or diverge, The US and Israel have a common interest to destroy the Syrian chemical arsenal, while the Russians and Syrians have an interest, to renew the Syrian presidential mandate and set a different strategic balance not resorting to Chemical balance.

The question posed is how many civilians will die more in Syria waiting for a true solution?

In truth what is presented for now is interesting yet partial, it might take out the chemical arsenal to be replaced by other armaments; but it will not reform the Syrian system nor will ensure universal rights for the citizens. This intersection can be effective for international powers and for the security of Israel but in the same time, it can be not, for the rights of the people, to express itself, and this is what all the Syrian crisis is all about.  Hence my perception is, that a partial proposal will prolong the agony of the Syrian state, keeping in place a dictator who plays by some norms, while crossing others and this is the lesser evil for chancelleries.

Looking from another prism we can say that Assad son dispersed the legacy of Assad father.

He was responsible for the security when Hariri was killed, and he consequently lost full control in Lebanon.

He was in charge of Syrian reforms when the revolution started, and he lost the monopoly of coercion and the territorial integrity.

He was the ultimate custodian of CW when these were used, and he is about to lose the storage and alter the strategic balance for long pursued by his father.

In the effort to govern and implement his policies Bashar Assad overestimates his own strength, and in practice he enlarges favors to Israel and the US as nobody else. So why change him? He cuts deals favoring others and applies policies that deteriorate the national interests of his own collectivity.

The involvement of Hezbollah by the Syrian regime is to be traced in the policies that will eventually weaken the entire arsenal of Iran in the area, as much as the immediate acceptance of the Russian offer by the Syrians was either an indirect hit to Iranian soft power, or an opening for further developments on the Iranian file.

In the negotiation between Russia and the West for the Syrian crisis, regional powers have a lesser say, therefore the mechanism for a deal should have different considerations not only linked to the short run.

The lessons that can be learned by Hezbollah is that interests can shift and that having a line of supply through Syria, doesn’t justify its own intervention in Syria or the derailment of the political and security environment in Lebanon.

Hezbollah an Iranian proxy has now a multiple usage, a multilateral action, in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. It will not exit the Syrian trap and will never tend a helping hand to the pm designate to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource.

As any delay to form the cabinet in Lebanon, will cause Lebanon more losses and will generate a high risk for the essence of the national interests, the main responsible for the present idle situation at this stage are only the pm designate and the Lebanese president.

Both Mr. Michel Suleiman and Mr. Tammam Salam are requested to proceed urgently to form the Lebanese cabinet of last resource. Failure to do so will widen the gap of the institutions with the people, and will only increase the area of operation of independent militias.

The Syrian crisis today is focused on the control of the CW, but we all know that this is a door that can well open into a limited political breakthrough or deteriorate into a military action.

How will Bashar trust to defend his crimes while his chemical dent will be destroyed?

Most likely a tactic of delays and stalling will be soon evident and my forecast is that the Russian proposal will continue to be exploited to gain time, which is precious for all actors to apply their own policies and exert pressures.

Although the proceedings in the congress for approval of military strike will proceed in parallel with the Russian proposal, my assessment is that the mechanism for CW control and dismantlement is extremely complex.  By itself the game of the nations is extremely cynic and treacherous.  The result for now is that military action can be undertaken only after the UN general assembly and the German elections.

Meanwhile the FED will have announced its gradual and predictable tapering to start in October by founding very likely only 78 Billion dollars, and this is a balanced step to safeguard the monetary and reserve problems of India, Turkey, Russia and Brazil.  Isn’t this process a responsible US international attitude of governance?

Perhaps Isolationists will realize what a connected world is, where Russia is projecting a perception of pseudo grandeur while the US is mastering the initiative and the tempo.

How win-win for all in the era of phantom diplomacy is based on the pillar of human loss?

Politics at best. Where are China and Iran? Will there be a strike that might endanger Israeli and Lebanese lives?

“Political evolution, on the other hand, is located at the creative cutting-edge, where old problems are solved with new techniques or new forms of organization, and where new problems are brought under political control”  Peter A Corning , Synergy, Cybernetics and the Evolution of Politics.

Thank you


The Opening Salvo

August 30, 2013

United States Capitol

United States Capitol (Photo credit: Jack’s LOST FILM)

 

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

“The beauty of words leads to literature, poetry and prose. A cat walks into a corner.”

 

When going through the most important literature in military affairs, from Sun Tzu to Clausewitz or other modern thinkers; the art of conventional & asymmetric war combined to counterinsurgency, offers a lot of calculation, thought and considerations, on several aspects of a conflict including the day after.

 

Analogies and studies abound, yet we all know that each context plays for its own self.  It could be a catwalk for the world if the Assad regime continued to kill his own citizens without using the gas, however this game changer do oblige all responsible decision makers to change the prism.  In fact the national interest of the US was perfectly carried on with a prolonged conflict in Syria that would not endanger the overall geopolitical environment with gas, while the administration could dedicate its efforts to sane the budget and revamp the economy. 

 

This is not the case, as the interests of the US are directly challenged now with the use of CW, be this because Syria has a geographic importance or because on the long run the Mediterranean gas and oil exploration will be very much at stake.  The same goes for China a nation that has an enormous interest for a free flow of oil from the Mediterranean. The Assad regime abused its own people and miscalculated the international red line.

 

As the world expects a military action to be conducted and led by the US, military planners are still adjourning objectives and contingencies.  We know by now that UN inspectors will travel back to NYC on Saturday and will consign the report to the general secretary on the same day, we know also that the UK parliament is not keen on action and that more than a hundred US congress men sent a letter to the US President to engage with the congress.

 

Time is a very precious commodity and while the US is a democracy that enables all people to express themselves, it is also constitutional for the president to order military actions in presence of challenges and concerns that threaten the US national interests. This is the perfect case, hence congressmen while engaged by phone will excuse the president for not checking in at the congress hall.

 

My understanding of the military action is that it needs to be well planned and it has to reach its objectives. The objectives are to send a clear message to Assad not to use CW again, and secondly not to retaliate and cause an enlargement of the conflict.

 

In a previous contribute I explained that 3 salvos of 24 missiles targeting some air defense assets, a couple of missile batteries and a republican guard garrison can be of high visibility and sufficient for the message to be delivered, but now I add that perhaps this is not enough for Assad to think twice before any retaliation.

 

Saturday will be the crucial day, as the Security Council will continue to meet to find an agreement on the resolution and this time will permit the Assad forces to shift and hide and alter the ground positioning.

 

Military planners will be asking about the wisdom not to take out the runways immediately?  From here I am sure that special force members are already close to Damascus and will pinpoint several operations to disrupt communications and create a kinetic effect of sabotage.

 

In truth the warning to Assad not to use CW again will be effective only if we take out his capability to retaliate by shutting the runways or if the air forces will be brought down in NFZ.

 

Considering the risks of the conflict enlargement to Israel and that a worst case scenario can well include some Syrian missiles with chemical weapons and many others from Hezbollah landing on Israel , it is an obligation for the US planners to target also Syrian runways and Syrian Missile batteries.

 

From above the soft scenario of 24 missiles is updated to become an enforced attack combined from sea and air to target a multitude of targets stretching from C4R to runways and batteries.

 

It is obvious that whenever a golden target will be found it will be taken also.  We need to be counting on rational thinking and not on wishful thought, the opening salvo will start the hostilities but the evolution of the actions and the conclusion is unknown.

 

How will hostilities be terminated? Will there be a cease fire? A conference will be called by the UN secretary in Geneva? Will world powers find a compromise and where stands the intersection of interests between western nations and Russia, between China and the KSA? Is it true that who will benefit more than anyone else is the KSA?

 

Will the meeting of G20 be a platform for the ending of hostilities and the imminent start of negotiations? How Israel and Lebanon will be affected?

 

Can the US action target Syria efficiently and deter it from enlarging the conflict to Israel and Lebanon?

 

If the Syrians and Hezbollah will shoot missiles into Israel, we can envisage a ground operation of the Israelis in the South of Lebanon and in the Golan.

 

Until Saturday evening US time all efforts will be conducted to embark Russia on board in a UNSC that will authorize a collective action against Assad, and this is the best scenario. I am not very optimistic that these efforts will succeed therefore the most likely happening is the opening salvo. 

 

The opening salvo at this stage will be on Sunday morning at 2 am Damascus time, and it will entail many air sorties on runways and missile batteries and different waves of cruise missiles on air defenses, clearly a reaction can be expected and Israel will be given a green light to conduct military operations at will. The analogy with the second gulf war doesn’t consist.

 

The game changer is the use of Gas and the duty of women and men is to act to ensure that the major part of the interests of the global communities will be safeguarded.

 

“The beauty of actions is that these are done following a process of thought and method “

 

Thank you,

 

 

 


Dictatorships don’t organize free elections

July 28, 2012

English: Ny Carlsberg Glyptothek, Copenhagen. ...

Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted
Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The greatest loss of time is delay and expectation, which depend upon the future. We let go the present, which we have in our power, and look forward to that which depends upon chance, and so relinquish a certainty for an uncertainty. “ Lucius Annaeus Seneca

As all analysts are making their guess related to the economic global downturn, we do learn that some high profile meetings will take place shortly, to address a coordinated vision to try and find solutions and feasible tools for cure.

It is no secret that the global crisis will last for some years, and its outcome is not clear.

Certainty for uncertainty, present for future, the late Seneca enlightens with some quotes I mention.

In truth if we consider that dictatorships by definition do not organize free elections, we realize a simple fact, that is, anything that follows a dictatorship will be a mere confusion.

By definition a dictatorship rests on a network of interests directed by a very small and tiny restricted circle in command, monopolizing all sorts of pivotal power centers.

Be them military, commercial, diplomatic, juridical or else, hence the aftermath can’t be managed easily without a freefall of the existing order.

To lessen the effects of the end of a dictatorship and diminish the full immersion into chaos, what can be done is to jumpstart an immediate work for reconciliation, fair representation, involvement of the civil society and reconstruction of the state as a tutor to the collectivity.

In the specifics, as the battle for control of Aleppo is raging, observers are keen to consider the day after options with emphasis, while giving perhaps less attention to the present momentum.

There is no light of tomorrow if the night of today will not end.

Therefore energies, sustainment and full power must be focused on the support and guidance to the efforts leading to the demise of the Assad clan.

Grand strategy parameters indicate a complexity of issues that need to be activated and laying some simple considerations we can extract a kinetic paradigm.    

The battle of Aleppo will cost Assad many assets and will not be the last battle in the roar of Syria.

What is most important is that the hit and run tactics, and the layer of defections proceed with ease on the entire territory, leading with certitude to growing erosion.

The rebels can count on fresh human power, and supplies, while the Assad clan is not capable to recruit more militants in its ranks.

This is science.

It means the forces of Assad will crack somewhere in a short time frame and will enlarge the descent into retrenchment.

Enduring in the barracks of Aleppo, draining the regime forces and ammo, will necessarily transform the status quo into more serious lesions in the Assad wounds.

A lethal infection will unavoidably appear. Vital organs will not support the tedious stress.   

Rumors are spreading about the Golan communities joining forces with the rebels and it is becoming clearer that an oyster effect is materializing, where the Assad clan will be pressed from different sides.

Several armies are readying, and build-ups are designated, the best environment for the solo attack to take place by the end of August /beginning of September.

Scenarios for the day after can be evaluated and conversations between experts and articles or studies will be further conducted.    

“Conversation has a kind of charm about it, an insinuating and insidious something that elicits secrets just like love or liquor” Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Thank you,


From Demise to Renaissance

July 23, 2012

Aleppo International Airport.

Aleppo International Airport. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In waiting for a desired reality, imagination can take the lead and set the route for managing the passage from turbulence and demise, to order and renaissance”

Economic operators and market analysts started watching data emerging today from Asia related to the expectations and the possible curves of different currencies or commodities.

Volatility is supreme, and the lack of coordinated leadership is extracting a high toll on the international trade.

We have read several articles about the cure or the doom, yet a substantive plan to exit the stalemate is not drawn with clarity.

 By contrast we learn that on the weekend, Arab Nations issued a call on the Syrian opposition to form a transition cabinet, while Turkey empowered its military power along its border with Syria, Israel manifested implicit warnings versus the CBW and finally the US is exhibiting much dynamism to manage an orderly ousting of the Assad Clan.

The title of the upcoming phase is without doubt: from Demise to Renaissance. 

Helping on all parts, in my perception, there is only one way forward to secure a solid management of the demise and transit it into renaissance.

Looking into a strict military prism, I say that while the Assad failed regime is being engaged in many and different parts of the beloved Syrian nation, the absolute first objective is to take full control of the city of Aleppo and establish a Transition cabinet in it.

What emerges so far, are two contradictions, from one side the regime is short on supplies, it has lost its social role, and it is incapable of defeating the opposition; from another side, it kept a military edge, while failing miserably to protect the population in its diabolic pursue of crushing the righteous opposition.

A human crisis is already emerging with refugees and displaced.

How the Assad clan will balance the kinetic dynamics of dissolution, while keeping control on two red lines the CBW and the fixed wings of the air assets, is yet to be understood.

Obviously the Assad clan is in dire straits, still counting on some loyal brigades, but having lost the command of the Syrian republic.

The fall of Aleppo and the establishment of the transition cabinet with a subsequent call on the friends of Syria to intervene and secure peace and order will be the most important step in the right direction.

The pragmatic demise of Assad and his agony is very convenient for the strategic battle against the Iranian nuclear file.

While observers agree that the process to renaissance is already prescribed in, transition, constitution, referendum, local elections, electoral law, general elections, economic growth, market reform and peace, they all fear that the organized demise is unknown.

The route to an organized demise comes as follows: the fall of Aleppo, establishment of a transition cabinet, control of the entire central/eastern territory, control of Syrian air assets, fixed wings, CBW and missile capability. Finally the fall of Damascus will signal the ultimate step.

It is understood that managing the systematic demise goes in tandem with evolving the planning and preparations for the solo attack of Israeli air assets against two of the Iranian nuclear plants Natanz and Fordow.

Here below is a tentative time table and a sequence: Fall of Aleppo by August 03, Transition cabinet August 06, call on international powers to help secure and control central/east territories by august 08, full defections will be announced, air assets control coupled to securing major concentration of CBW/missiles by august 13, concentration of US naval assets and military hard ware in the gulf, deployment of multinational flotilla in the eastern Mediterranean and the gulf august 14,  solo attack between August 21- September 7,  in presence of a controlled Iranian reaction fall of Damascus by September 13, alternatively in case of an all out war in south Lebanon , a strategic bombing will affect the IRGC, and an Israeli invasion of South Lebanon will take place.  Destruction of Assad will be certain.        

It is hard to believe that everything planned will be delivered, however if we take into consideration the Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah military planners multiple tasks we can figure out their actual problems in taking the initiative.

Steadfastness, preparedness, planning, courage and logistics are all about discipline and warfare for the benefit of global peace.

“ La sensualite’: dimensions du Coeur, parfums d’Amour. A romance, a glance, a nuance “      

Thank you,