November | 2010 | The Second Semester

Lebanon the state, no pariah

November 18, 2010

Map showing the Blue Line demarcation line bet...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Solving issues and finding solutions is the ultimate success for politicians”

On the eve of the NATO-Russian meeting in Lisbon and following the G 20 gathering in Seoul, policy makers are looking with emphasis, to the US Modern Grand Strategy which managed to impose itself, as a conduit for easing international relations.

Nato can be at a new dawn where under the same umbrella, a Nato West and a Nato East, will project cooperation for the best interest of humanity, hence perform attention to pacific areas and to the near “Intermarrium” abroad.

From here partnering between the US/EU and Russia from one side and concerting relations between the US and China to generate a dual engine for economic growth from another, are two pillars for the 21st century peaceful performance.

While transition is supreme until a better framework is developed and defined for international trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes and global security; it is inevitable that priorities should be set.

From above food provisions, aid delivery, energy security, currency oscillations, finance regulations, reformed governance, are all actual requirements in our contemporary world.

Data about the economic recovery will fluctuate and sentiments will be subject to ups and downs, yet without optimism in US consumer spending and increase in Chinese spending it is widely accepted that the economic comeback will lag and be threatened by either inflation or deflation.

Analysts share the need to rebalance international economies, however in doing this, the need is to recover the US market and simultaneously create other growth hubs, especially in China and India.

This will naturally affect the geopolitics of the land mass area stretched between China and Portugal. The US policy acting as ballerina will spur the recovery and reduce the debt, open to immigration, focus on education, integrate with Russia, concert with China, establish a stable rotation in government in Iraq and facilitate the “Jirga Governance” in the Afghanistan theater.

The US will enforce the mechanism to change the attitude of the Iranian guards; it will broker the talks between Israel and the Palestinians and project international cooperation on tense fronts. Be these the Korean Peninsula, the African Continent, Guinea , Madagascar, or the Thai kingdom.

This policy will be implemented faster if coupled to an enforced role of balancing nations like, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba, Norway and Lebanon.

Efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, where the formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

Whenever US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks, the outlook for the economy will shine.

Much will be left to be done such as defining a plan to transform public waste into wealth and expand exports in goods and services. Furthermore investment in infrastructure, education and human resources and the gradual plan to reduce national debt without affecting the recovery.

As much as the new START treaty needs to be passed in both chambers hopefully by the end of the year with a bipartisan wise action.

Rumors are spreading about a US – Israeli understanding to freeze partially the settlements in exchange for some assurances, in order to reactivate talks with the NPA, and this is a very good thing.

We need to see a Syrian position versus peace clarified after the announced Israeli withdrawal from Northern Gajar, so that both nations Israel and Syria can reach out in direct talks in Paris early next year.

Whenever there will be no advance this will deteriorate the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, widening the probability for strife and ultimately of a major war.

The evolution in the Five plus One talks with Iran will seek a new accord to impede any military use of nuclear power, as much as peace talks will define an interim Federal Palestine and the successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, will be all pivotal, to synchronize the Chinese advance in Middle Eastern Affairs to be acting in tandem with international efforts to stabilize and ensure progress in the oil rich territorial area.

In the “Third Dynamic” and in “The Crossroads” I elaborated about factors and dynamics influencing world affairs, and the requirement to put the third dynamic under strict control, and to avoid any halt to the march of justice in Lebanon.

While observers agree that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, it is expected that the indictment of the STL will be announced and that the reaction of the accused will not exceed rhetoric. In fact any wise calculation of benefit and loss will decisively not alter the acting formula before the trial will stand and the verdict issued.

And even then, when the verdict is known, it is doubtful in front of the Sudanese example that a major event will change the Lebanese status quo. Pessimist observers and verbal threats will not succeed to stop the work of the STL, and the indictment will be announced as much as the trial and the verdict will be accomplished.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon, rather to bring to justice the perpetrators , but in the same time to create a mechanism of salvation “ A commission for Prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics of the cedar nations and will seek rapprochement and harmony between all communities. A regeneration of State Affairs is much on demand, approval of the budget, setting a policy for reforms and route map for jobs creation.

Lebanon ‘s place is to become a pole for conventions specialized in Liquids ( water, beer, vodka, whiskey, wine, Oil, etc…), Banking, Aesthetics, Pharmaceutical and inventions.

The IRGC, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah can operate in darkness but they will fail to affect the events ahead. The military build up and power accumulated will oblige them to think twice before unleashing a conflict or to surrender in case of it.

Two red lines exist and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense to reach permanent and just peace with all its neighbors including Israel.

The Lebanese state is not a pariah rather a full expression of auto-determination of a civil society and its future will not be played by armed gangsters.

Violence and peace always differ, but with a heavy price and toll for both, be this of destruction or construction.

Any strategic error to start the HOSTILITIES will expand into its effects to a very wide area. In any case this will not alter the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Iraqi and Af-pak theaters.

All Lebanese parties should relax to the STL indictment to be announced in the first week of December, and must work to instate a “Commission for Progress and Truth” and find a compromise enabling the accused to be detained for a certain period, and to pay a material sum to have the pardon for their murderous action in killing so many innocents and politicians. Furthermore the focus must concentrate on evolving the state of Lebanon to become a Tourism example and an engine for growth.

This is possible if justice will pinch or soupcon an accepatable outcome for the citizenry.

There will be no “Casus Belli”, simply because who will dare to change the equation will need to face the reaction expected in two phases.

The first will be slow and intense, issuing alerts and warnings, and the second after assessing the situation will give the green light for a major military invasion that will be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will lose once and for all, and the IRGC will have less influence in the whole area. Syria will stand idle even after bombing all Hezbollah targets inside its territories to erase the lines of supply.

The International community will broker the “Commission for Progress and Truth” as much as it did with the STL for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

Whenever Hezbollah will gamble, the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and Syria will oblige the IRGC to lose an important card to save the regime itself from perishing.

The Syrian commander in chief has no other choice than to align himself with the alliance and work hard to find diplomatic solutions, for the benefit of all parties. Palmyra and Akkar will both become hubs for alternative energy to provide electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

The indictment will pave the way for the tribunal to issue its verdicts and the compromise will be to reach peace for all, as there is no alternative to this than a war that will allow Israel to use Lebanese offshore fossil hydrocarbons.

Charities will play a significant role to impede war, and whenever an armed conflict can not be impeded then these will help to rebuild the damages and to express post-bellum sound governance.

The area can grow and seek a common currency between Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iran and the GCC nations, confluent into the Unity of the Mediterranean or it will become a theater for strife and interminable conflict.

“Charities recommend to armed militias the way for peace, and Hezbollah better follow”

Thank you,