Hezbollah from Zenith to ?

July 6, 2011

First hand drawn flag of Lebanon.

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ Being everyone subjected to criticism, the most important duty of a veteran is to facilitate his replacement “

In an objective effort to assess the broader interests of democracy in the Middle East, perhaps the best start is to ponder the positive effects on global governance rather than an effective analysis of the bottom up evolution.

Far from being rhetoric or idealistic, it is a reality to consider the democratic advancement an excellent tool for peace in the Eurasian Theater, being this in Arab Countries, in Russia, in Thailand or in China.

Tactics, mechanics and achievements might differ as per each local circumstance/surrounding, yet the mainstream is that liberties coupled to peaceful rotation of power will enable a flourishing society and the empowerment of civil rights.

If it is true that there is a geopolitical formula that links maneuvering drones to transparent ballots, it is also true that energy/water/food corridors and demographic aspects will play a pivotal role in setting the modern governance in the coming decades.

Looking into an innovative prism of strategic concept we can easily affirm that in general all popular movements are a step forward and in particular the “Arab Spring” is a transition from a stalled and static civil society into a vibrant and dynamic interaction between many players involved in setting the interests of a collectivity.

How we can intersect the interests of different collectivities and avoid clashes and conflicts, remains a hurdle, while vested interests, monetary masters of the universe, arrogant powers and revanchist souls will render very difficult the job of decision makers to converge on righteous policies.

Observers are keen to consider the Egyptian, Tunisian, Yemeni , Libyan and Syrian theaters all subject to major changes that will transform the nature and essence of the state from authoritarian/despotic to relaxed and cooperative with the civil society.

This will unavoidably be coupled to geopolitical deployments, where US troops presence in the AFPAk/ and Iraqi theaters will be diminished sensibly, in tandem to new deployments in Cyprus, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

Political tools will be exploited until the objectives assigned will be reached and implemented.

The final goal will be to practice an illuminated governance to tutor the interests of the global citizenry, although lobbies, associations, old states, new conglomerates and else will exert pressure to get benefits and privileges.

In Syria it will be extremely difficult for the gang in power to meet the opposition demands, therefore I forecast a slow demise of the dictatorship along a period of 3 to 6 months time from today.

In Lebanon, as we all know there is a new cabinet in place and it will be voted this week to have the confidence, while simultaneously the STL will do its work.

Observers are concerned that an outbreak of violence might flare and a major violent strife will oppose sectarian communities.

My forecast is that nothing will happen rather it is in the best interest of democracy to proceed in Lebanon with the dual game of a cabinet and an opposition, leading eventually to a peaceful rotation.

Even if the diverging actual majority will generate national tickets/lists that will run the general elections of 2013, this is not a big deal.

Lebanon will need to legally submit to the STL in a way or another, and all efforts of the actual government to derail it, will be voided and lost.

It remains unclear how the diverging interests of the majority composing the cabinet in Lebanon will express focused governance and a successful economic policy while in contrast with the international institutions.

I don’t envy a business man leading an octopus, armed with missiles willing to maintain a balance of terror with Israel and abiding by an Iranian dictate for all strategic matters of national concern.

It is only a matter of time that this octopus will dissipate and part of it regains sense making.

 The Lebanese opposition should be very objective and express its legal standing behind the STL at all costs and by supporting the international institutions.

Submitting Lebanon to justice by the international community will reveal to be for the interests of Lebanon, as this is the best alternative to war with Israel or to an internal strife.

 The Syrian regime stubbornness will impede any peaceful transition and in the coming weeks we will unavoidably see a Turkish major intervention setting a buffer zone and hosting the Syrian Council for Modernity.

This gathering where all opposition forces will reunite under the same umbrella, multiethnic, multi confessional and plural will be the incubator for the political initiative of a new Syria.

 The Lebanese opposition guidance will be expressed by its adherence to the STL and staunch defense of its dynamics.

Hezbollah has a choice similar to Ghaddafi and Assad, it can negotiate with the STL, include its arms in the LAF , participate in the making of a new Lebanese social pact, lead the political negotiation with Israel for the best interests of the Lebanese collectivity and finally influence the Iranian environment for a modern development within the global governance.

Refusal to exert this option, will lead Hezbollah to a major confrontation with the world powers,and even if its Iranian mentor will interfere, the fate is signed and this is Hezbollah change from its zenith .

“ Hope never fades in illuminated nations and in dynamic regimes and open societies”

Thank You


Orbi Parliament

February 7, 2011

The Lebanese Parliament in downtown Beirut. Th...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Transition in the making, necessitates a relevant self control and a major vision to avoid conflict”

As mentioned in my earlier “Orchid Diplomacy” , time is always an opportunity to evaluate and detect trends. Spinning issues were identified, some with known outcome, others with ongoing evolution.

The Sudan referenda ended with great hopes for a two states entity, while Turkish general elections are still to be hold, in presence of a growing role of Istanbul, yet to become global.

Egyptian desire for reforms is in process, but expectation is that a general election will be held perhaps as early as June and a constitutional amendment in the making to be implemented.

If it is true that the Chinese rulers are concentrated on an easy succession to the fifth generation, in a policy concentrated on defense, energy provision & economic progress, Yuan alternated assertiveness and strong outgoing tourism, it is also true that Russian primary role beneath NATO EAST is becoming more and more pivotal, to tutor freedom inside and outside the nation and its near abroad.

Comforting is the US recovery even if still to be coupled with a VAT taxation and demographic growth, together to the German and/or emerging countries active balancing dynamics, all fundamental in this current geopolitical year.

It is spread knowledge that NATO will develop further and extend a bi-directional security NATO East and NATO West, as much as the G-20 or G-2 will try to exert influence and guidance in world affairs to shape events for a peaceful dynamic.

While almost every analyst agrees that nurturing multiple economic hubs (US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, etc…) will not only lead to growth but also to a global system of control and effectiveness, the US Modern Grand Strategy is already leading the transition from mono-polar governance to a multi-hub governance.

An innovative and consequential approach in foreign affairs, portended to secure the peaceful conduit for soft international relations.

US Full partnership with Russia, Strategic cooperation with India, Encompassing economic concert with China and Empowerment of emerging powers, are fundamental basics for lasting world equilibrium.

The latest economic data is confirming the US recovery, the German growth and that some wise adjustments are still to be put in place to keep the positive pace gathering. There is need to focus on international trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes, global security, food provisions, aid delivery, energy routes, currency fluctuations, finance regulations, reformed governance, debt reduction and collective cooperation.

Above brings us inevitably to the geopolitics of the area comprised between China and Portugal considered to be the most critical for the cause of peace and humanity.

Acting as ballerina the US already co-brokered a new government in Iraq, it is swiftly generating momentum for a “Jirga Governance” in the Af-Pak Theater, and pro-acting a responsible transition in the Egyptian Nile. Definitely there are still many areas of volatility and incertitude in African/ Asian poor continents, in the Middle East , the Persian/ Arab Peninsula, The Korean Theater and the South American continent, but this is where geopolitics will incisively deal progressively with events.

The multi-hub governance active through balancing nations Brazil, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway and Lebanon will further contribute in the design of freedom expansion and peaceful world governance.

It is remarkable the initiative for the Startup day at the White House, where interaction with a new business community, will lead to define future steps, to ease regulation, empower immigration, gradually end public waste, reduce debt, amplify employment and constantly expand exports in goods and services.

Now that the Iranian attempt to become nuclear was covertly postponed, the opportunity is wide for peace talks in the Levant to advance, whenever an Israeli statesman will emerge.

My conviction is that Israel is in dire need for a modern leader, pragmatic, that will lead the occupying nation from an apartheid and racist policy to an open and just policy.

As mentioned in “Orchid Diplomacy”, there is still maneuver for Germany to develop a special initiative versus Iran in coordination with the US, and for France to facilitate negotiations between Israelis, the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Lebanese.

Coming to the resignation of Lebanese ministers, the deposited indictment of the STL, and the nominee of a new prime minister, one needs to decide if to stay at the margin or to lower the chances for a conflagration.

Being the major Syrian interest to aid and support Lebanon to tutor acceptance, tolerance and diversity by exerting democratic stability, I sense the upcoming governing formula to be 10- 10-10. However before this can be applied it is needed that some parliamentarians including the nominated PM and the PSP, declare to be under the umbrella of the president of the republic, to safeguard somehow the cheated and displeased citizenry. Only then can a cabinet be formed, without altering the strategic equilibrium and by setting the premises for a peaceful transition for reforms.

The French and German initiatives in tandem with US benediction will have a beneficial effect on peace in the ME, and the future of the relations with Iran. These will obviously create an environment for transition, justice, stability and reforms in Lebanon.

Although my convincement is that Lebanon needs an internal “ Commission for prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics, follow up on the STL and define harmony to establish good governance, the requirement is for the different communities to meet and agree on the interests of the Lebanese collectivity.

Lebanon’s future is to become a specialized pole for conventions and a net energy exporter.

Lack of implementation of the above vision will maintain in place two red lines, the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty and freedom of the Lebanese state.

Any one sided government in Lebanon will trigger a “Casus Belli” as it will alter the strategic equilibrium, and this means a major military invasion that will be expanding and multi-theater, overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

From here Hezbullah, Syria and Iran are put on notice.

The major threat is the vengeance desire and the arrivism and filibuster spirit hidden in the political acts of Hezbullah, and this must be contained for the best interest of Lebanon and the area. Power and influence should walk hand in hand with winning arguments not with plagiarism.

Palmyra and Akkar can become territories for alternative energy to provide wind electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending, only if the words of the Syrian ruler will be followed by deeds, and the US ambassador to Damascus should make every effort to make this clear. May Assad listen to avoid a cataclysm.

Dear Reader, Peace will prevail as it will be defended by a formidable armada and by an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

Sage activists will impede war and will navigate between conflicting areas focusing on converging interests.

The French/ German entente will increase the role of the Euro 1 to evolve into a Euro 2, and even if many critics do not see a political union in Europe, this model can be enlarged to include many Mediterranean and Asian nations.

I imagine an “Orbi” parliament in Beirut where representatives of the variety of nations will gather steam and talk about life.

The reform of the UN can be activated by a De Facto world Parliament.

“Where conversation and opinions flourish, confrontation will regress” Thank you,

Lebanon the state, no pariah

November 18, 2010

Map showing the Blue Line demarcation line bet...

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Solving issues and finding solutions is the ultimate success for politicians”

On the eve of the NATO-Russian meeting in Lisbon and following the G 20 gathering in Seoul, policy makers are looking with emphasis, to the US Modern Grand Strategy which managed to impose itself, as a conduit for easing international relations.

Nato can be at a new dawn where under the same umbrella, a Nato West and a Nato East, will project cooperation for the best interest of humanity, hence perform attention to pacific areas and to the near “Intermarrium” abroad.  

From here partnering between the US/EU and Russia from one side and concerting relations between the US and China to generate a dual engine for economic growth from another, are two pillars for the 21st century peaceful performance.

While transition is supreme until a better framework is developed and defined for international trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes and global security; it is inevitable that priorities should be set.

From above food provisions, aid delivery, energy security, currency oscillations, finance regulations, reformed governance, are all actual requirements in our contemporary world.

Data about the economic recovery will fluctuate and sentiments will be subject to ups and downs, yet without optimism in US consumer spending and increase in Chinese spending it is widely accepted that the economic comeback will lag and be threatened by either inflation or deflation.

Analysts share the need to rebalance international economies, however in doing this, the need is to recover the US market and simultaneously create other growth hubs, especially in China and India.

This will naturally affect the geopolitics of the land mass area stretched between China and Portugal. The US policy acting as ballerina will spur the recovery and reduce the debt, open to immigration, focus on education, integrate with Russia, concert with China, establish a stable rotation in government in Iraq and facilitate the “Jirga Governance” in the Afghanistan theater.

The US will enforce the mechanism to change the attitude of the Iranian guards; it will broker the talks between Israel and the Palestinians and project international cooperation on tense fronts. Be these the Korean Peninsula, the African Continent, Guinea , Madagascar, or the Thai kingdom.

This policy will be implemented faster if coupled to an enforced role of balancing nations like, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba, Norway and Lebanon.

Efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, where the formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

Whenever US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks, the outlook for the economy will shine.

Much will be left to be done such as defining a plan to transform public waste into wealth and expand exports in goods and services. Furthermore investment in infrastructure, education and human resources and the gradual plan to reduce national debt without affecting the recovery.

As much as the new START treaty needs to be passed in both chambers hopefully by the end of the year with a bipartisan wise action.

Rumors are spreading about a US – Israeli understanding to freeze partially the settlements in exchange for some assurances, in order to reactivate talks with the NPA, and this is a very good thing.

We need to see a Syrian position versus peace clarified after the announced Israeli withdrawal from Northern Gajar, so that both nations Israel and Syria can reach out in direct talks in Paris early next year.

Whenever there will be no advance this will deteriorate the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, widening the probability for strife and ultimately of a major war.

The evolution in the Five plus One talks with Iran will seek a new accord to impede any military use of nuclear power, as much as peace talks will define an interim Federal Palestine and the successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, will be all pivotal, to synchronize the Chinese advance in Middle Eastern Affairs to be acting in tandem with international efforts to stabilize and ensure progress in the oil rich territorial area.

In the “Third Dynamic” and in “The Crossroads” I elaborated about factors and dynamics influencing world affairs, and the requirement to put the third dynamic under strict control, and to avoid any halt to the march of justice in Lebanon.

While observers agree that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, it is expected that the indictment of the STL will be announced and that the reaction of the accused will not exceed rhetoric. In fact any wise calculation of benefit and loss will decisively not alter the acting formula before the trial will stand and the verdict issued.

And even then, when the verdict is known,  it is doubtful in front of the Sudanese example that a major event will change the Lebanese status quo. Pessimist observers and verbal threats will not succeed to stop the work of the STL, and the indictment will be announced as much as the trial and the verdict will be accomplished.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon, rather to bring to justice the perpetrators , but in the same time to create a mechanism of salvation “ A commission for Prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics of the cedar nations and will seek rapprochement and harmony between all communities. A regeneration of State Affairs is much on demand, approval of the budget, setting a policy for reforms and route map for jobs creation.

Lebanon ‘s place is to become a pole for conventions specialized in Liquids ( water, beer, vodka, whiskey, wine, Oil, etc…), Banking, Aesthetics, Pharmaceutical and inventions.   

The IRGC, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah can operate in darkness but they will fail to affect the events ahead. The military build up and power accumulated will oblige them to think twice before unleashing a conflict or to surrender in case of it.

Two red lines exist and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense to reach permanent and just peace with all its neighbors including Israel.

The Lebanese state is not a pariah rather a full expression of auto-determination of a civil society and its future will not be played by armed gangsters.

Violence and peace always differ, but with a heavy price and toll for both, be this of destruction or construction.

Any strategic error to start the HOSTILITIES will expand into its effects to a very wide area. In any case this will not alter the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Iraqi and Af-pak theaters.

All Lebanese parties should relax to the STL indictment to be announced in the first week of December, and must work to instate a “Commission for Progress and Truth” and find a compromise enabling the accused to be detained for a certain period, and to pay a material sum to have the pardon for their murderous action in killing so many innocents and politicians. Furthermore the focus must concentrate on evolving the state of Lebanon to become a Tourism example and an engine for growth. 

This is possible if justice will pinch or soupcon an accepatable outcome for the citizenry. 

There will be no “Casus Belli”, simply because who will dare to change the equation will need to face the reaction expected in two phases.

The first will be slow and intense, issuing alerts and warnings, and the second after assessing the situation will give the green light for a major military invasion that will be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will lose once and for all, and the IRGC will have less influence in the whole area. Syria will stand idle even after bombing all Hezbollah targets inside its territories to erase the lines of supply.

The International community will broker the “Commission for Progress and Truth” as much as it did with the STL for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

Whenever Hezbollah will gamble, the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and Syria will oblige the IRGC to lose an important card to save the regime itself from perishing.

The Syrian commander in chief has no other choice than to align himself with the alliance and work hard to find diplomatic solutions, for the benefit of all parties. Palmyra and Akkar will both become hubs for alternative energy to provide electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

The indictment will pave the way for the tribunal to issue its verdicts and the compromise will be to reach peace for all, as there is no alternative to this than a war that will allow Israel to use Lebanese offshore fossil hydrocarbons.

Charities will play a significant role to impede war, and whenever an armed conflict can not be impeded then these will help to rebuild the damages and to express post-bellum sound governance.

The area can grow and seek a common currency between Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iran and the GCC nations, confluent into the Unity of the Mediterranean or it will become a theater for strife and interminable conflict.

“Charities recommend to armed militias the way for peace, and Hezbollah better follow”

Thank you,