Greetings and Good Day,
“ Being everyone subjected to criticism, the most important duty of a veteran is to facilitate his replacement “
In an objective effort to assess the broader interests of democracy in the Middle East, perhaps the best start is to ponder the positive effects on global governance rather than an effective analysis of the bottom up evolution.
Far from being rhetoric or idealistic, it is a reality to consider the democratic advancement an excellent tool for peace in the Eurasian Theater, being this in Arab Countries, in Russia, in Thailand or in China.
Tactics, mechanics and achievements might differ as per each local circumstance/surrounding, yet the mainstream is that liberties coupled to peaceful rotation of power will enable a flourishing society and the empowerment of civil rights.
If it is true that there is a geopolitical formula that links maneuvering drones to transparent ballots, it is also true that energy/water/food corridors and demographic aspects will play a pivotal role in setting the modern governance in the coming decades.
Looking into an innovative prism of strategic concept we can easily affirm that in general all popular movements are a step forward and in particular the “Arab Spring” is a transition from a stalled and static civil society into a vibrant and dynamic interaction between many players involved in setting the interests of a collectivity.
How we can intersect the interests of different collectivities and avoid clashes and conflicts, remains a hurdle, while vested interests, monetary masters of the universe, arrogant powers and revanchist souls will render very difficult the job of decision makers to converge on righteous policies.
Observers are keen to consider the Egyptian, Tunisian, Yemeni , Libyan and Syrian theaters all subject to major changes that will transform the nature and essence of the state from authoritarian/despotic to relaxed and cooperative with the civil society.
This will unavoidably be coupled to geopolitical deployments, where US troops presence in the AFPAk/ and Iraqi theaters will be diminished sensibly, in tandem to new deployments in Cyprus, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
Political tools will be exploited until the objectives assigned will be reached and implemented.
The final goal will be to practice an illuminated governance to tutor the interests of the global citizenry, although lobbies, associations, old states, new conglomerates and else will exert pressure to get benefits and privileges.
In Syria it will be extremely difficult for the gang in power to meet the opposition demands, therefore I forecast a slow demise of the dictatorship along a period of 3 to 6 months time from today.
In Lebanon, as we all know there is a new cabinet in place and it will be voted this week to have the confidence, while simultaneously the STL will do its work.
Observers are concerned that an outbreak of violence might flare and a major violent strife will oppose sectarian communities.
My forecast is that nothing will happen rather it is in the best interest of democracy to proceed in Lebanon with the dual game of a cabinet and an opposition, leading eventually to a peaceful rotation.
Even if the diverging actual majority will generate national tickets/lists that will run the general elections of 2013, this is not a big deal.
Lebanon will need to legally submit to the STL in a way or another, and all efforts of the actual government to derail it, will be voided and lost.
It remains unclear how the diverging interests of the majority composing the cabinet in Lebanon will express focused governance and a successful economic policy while in contrast with the international institutions.
I don’t envy a business man leading an octopus, armed with missiles willing to maintain a balance of terror with Israel and abiding by an Iranian dictate for all strategic matters of national concern.
It is only a matter of time that this octopus will dissipate and part of it regains sense making.
The Lebanese opposition should be very objective and express its legal standing behind the STL at all costs and by supporting the international institutions.
Submitting Lebanon to justice by the international community will reveal to be for the interests of Lebanon, as this is the best alternative to war with Israel or to an internal strife.
The Syrian regime stubbornness will impede any peaceful transition and in the coming weeks we will unavoidably see a Turkish major intervention setting a buffer zone and hosting the Syrian Council for Modernity.
This gathering where all opposition forces will reunite under the same umbrella, multiethnic, multi confessional and plural will be the incubator for the political initiative of a new Syria.
The Lebanese opposition guidance will be expressed by its adherence to the STL and staunch defense of its dynamics.
Hezbollah has a choice similar to Ghaddafi and Assad, it can negotiate with the STL, include its arms in the LAF , participate in the making of a new Lebanese social pact, lead the political negotiation with Israel for the best interests of the Lebanese collectivity and finally influence the Iranian environment for a modern development within the global governance.
Refusal to exert this option, will lead Hezbollah to a major confrontation with the world powers,and even if its Iranian mentor will interfere, the fate is signed and this is Hezbollah change from its zenith .
“ Hope never fades in illuminated nations and in dynamic regimes and open societies”
- Hariri indictments unleash sabotage accusations (ctv.ca)
- The challenges of Hezbollah (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- Turmoil in Syria may spill out into war for Israel (rt.com)
- Hezbollah blames Israel for Hariri killing (edition.cnn.com)
- Hezbollah ally warns of civil strife in Lebanon (ctv.ca)
- Hezbollah leader vows to protect militants accused in Hariri assassination (theglobeandmail.com)
- Hezbollah Rise In Lebanon Gives Syria, Iran Sway (huffingtonpost.com)
- The Assassination incident in Lebanon (jacobian.web.id)