OIL @ 250 or the only option today?

November 22, 2013

United States

United States (Photo credit: Moyan_Brenn)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

“The experience of “beauty” often involves an interpretation of some entity as being in balance and harmony with nature, which may lead to feelings of attraction and emotional well-being. Because this can be a subjective experience, it is often said that “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Wikipedia

It is a source of comfort that the negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, will set a comprehensive agreement as a new objective.

The interim deal concept is wrong and it was generating much instability, whatever its nature could be.

This instability was likely leading to a unilateral Israeli decision, that would have as side effects a direct confrontation between Iran, Iraq and KSA, sending Oil prices to 250 $.

In fact the interim deal brokered by Russia, would disrupt the US strategy in the ME applied for decades, sending Oil prices to skyrocket and disrupting supplies as per Iranian/Gulf Monarchies clashes.

I am happy though that we saved the USA twice, the first time by trading the attack on Syria with the CW dismantlement keeping in place the objectives of building on Geneva 1, with a transitional government in Syria without Assad. And the second time by trading the interim deal with a strategic comprehensive agreement to be discussed, yet as per the vision already enunciated on the pages of this same blog.

In my view, considering the shrinking population and working force in Russia, and adding the OIL and Gas exports contribution to the GNP, we can easily understand how an interim agreement will be in the best interest of Russia mainly, more than any commercial deal thought by western corporations.

Above all the US administration should also consider that an interim deal would have thrown Gulf Monarchies and Israel alike, in the hands of China which is a great power, suffering a major economic setback from high Oil prices.

The interim deal could blow the US policy of an Asian/Pacific pivot before it takes the required contour, by opening a massive Chinese network in the Mediterranean. The US would have lost its queen in the first openings of the Chess pacific pivot.

From above we can easily realize that while Russia and China will benefit from the interim deal, in different manners, the US would need to deploy costly assets to adjust for a Status- Quo ante, a Dietro – front futile and unnecessary in all cases.

So here comes the Global/US interest in pursuing a comprehensive agreement with Iran, within 3 months, and failure to do this will portray the US in a plan B consisting of further tightening of harsh sanctions.

The only option today is to amplify the diplomatic reach for 3 months until end of February, in a strong desire to achieve a comprehensive agreement.

The beauty of life .

Life is a characteristic that distinguishes objects that have signaling and self-sustaining processes from those that do not, either because such functions have ceased (death), or else because they lack such functions and are classified as inanimate. “ Wikipedia

Thank You,

.

 

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The trigger of thought

August 26, 2013

English: Syrian President Taj al-Din al-Hasani...

English: Syrian President Taj al-Din al-Hasani with President Alfred Naqqache of Lebanon in 1941. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

In view of recent developments in Syria and Lebanon; the housing data revealed in the US and the economic data in China, an assessment is beneficial.

It is a source of comfort to have the housing sector stabilizing and growing in the US as much as the jobs data having some steady positive indications, even if the hospitality sector is having the lion portion.

My perception is that there are enough indications in the US now for a meeting of the FED in September clearing the way for a very flexible process of mixed speed tenure( slow to rapid) to reduce the monthly bond purchasing in a period of time of 18 months. This should be coupled to a regulation that permits banks to lower the reserve only if used for a special bank startup loan having duration of 3 years and dedicated to new entrepreneurs looking to become self employed and offering at least 4 new jobs.

As for China I am afraid that the challenge facing the 4th generation of communist leaders is to maintain a growth of 8 percent per year to keep the job market rosy. But the economic and aging demographic concerns are very complex. A sound therapy is to address these by more openness to other cultures, internal plurality, foreign investment, coordinated policies with neighboring countries and non aggressive approach in all matters of importance in the Chinese area of influence.  Last but not least, I envisage a healthy home grown debate for general reforms of the system.

In Syria we learn that today a fact finding UN mission will verify the exact nature of the cause of deaths in East Gotha, which is most likely a special mix of different chemical agents delivered by missiles that departed Mont Kalamun .  Autopsies will certainly reveal certitude and intelligence evidence already gathered will be sufficient to indicate that post East Gotha is different than pre East Gotha.

While the US is showing a methodical approach by calling meetings in the Oval Office, in Jordan and by consulting with allies, I see the coming days leading to a consequential result.  A special US envoy will travel to Russia, China and to Emerging Leading countries to inform them that the US is willing to take action. The legal base for action can be easily traced in the use of chemical against civil citizens. The Swiss Embassy in Tehran will deliver a letter from Mr. John Kerry to President Rouhani, explaining that US action will be pondered and will not entail effects on the Lebanese theater where the desire is to maintain a US/Iranian cooperation for stability.

The US action will consist of the option of bombing some Syrian air defenses assets in and around Damascus and near the Turkish and Israeli border. This will be followed by the announcement that a No Fly Zone will be declared east to a straight line from Ras el Ain to Daraa , that will evolve to a half moon stretching from Idlib to Al Quneitra in case the lose Syrian regime will keep its criminal path.

A buffer zone of 15 km depth can also be applied from the border between Jordan and Syria by the Syrian opposition elite forces responding to trusted Generals.

A formal warning will be issued by the US after the NFZ de facto institution that any further chemical adventure driven by the Assad regime will be substantially contrasted by a formal action to seize the chemical weapons or neutralize them.

This US action have several benefits as it will enhance the mechanism of Geneva 2 in October while setting the line straight of how things will develop.

As for Lebanon much will depend on the materialization of a new cabinet, where the intentions will be soon revealed if the words will be followed by deeds. What is needed is a cabinet of 8/8/8/ or a cabinet of 8/5/5 that will be a cabinet for all and will generate a net of protection for Lebanon independently from the Syrian developments. This cabinet can be formed by personalities close to the parties and in close relation with them yet extracted from the productive tissue of the country. Time is short and I expect the Lebanese cabinet to be formed not later than September 5th.

By contrast, the US led alliance, will proceed into action in Syria as explained above, in the range of 7 to 8 days from today.

The trigger of thought is defined and the requirement is to proceed and to move forward for the best love of humanity.

Thank you,

 


The Red House

April 27, 2012

Flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency...

Flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an organization of the United Nations Deutsch: Flagge der Internationalen Atomenergieorganisation (IAEO), eine Organisation der Vereinten Nationen (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Where objective analysis can lead to righteous policy, a void in both is dramatic. A latent decision making will have present and future costs”

As US economic indicators are coming in with a regular flux, it is my understanding from the mixed data related to housing, energy, manufacturing, spending and jobs, that the recession is over, although the recovery is tortuous, especially in the labor market.

In view of the approaching US presidential elections, observers are uncertain how to address the upcoming last phase of the presidential mandate.

Debating this issue will help on clarity. It is my conviction that there are five main domains that need to be balanced by the US and these are: the economy, Iran, Syria, North Korea, bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam, Brazil, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon.

As for the economy, it is understood that the FED is watching closely and will inject a tactical QE3 in case of need to keep up the maneuver and induce leverage for growth, in view of the existing economic problems in Europe and China. My prediction is that unless Europe will invert the austerity we will be walking on a tight rope. From here my calculus is for the Chinese to follow up on the peg enlargement band with the dollar in a coordinated intervention with Germany and France. This can be achieved by financing European quantitative easing coupled to a gradual Chinese political reform and enlarging the investment solid ground.

As for Iran, the US is doing all possible to open up and ease tension with the Supreme leader office to broker an agreement. This will be based on the principle of civil nuclear energy and unfettered access by the IAEA, in exchange for a gradual sanctions revoke. The second meeting in Baghdad might well clear the smoke and we will know the real substance. If a trusted framework of negotiations leading to the verifiable civil isotope or a deadlock bringing sanctions to a stronger level, and the attack on multiple targets inevitable by the end of July.

Coming to Syria, theories abound if this is Bosnia, Yemen, Libya or else. Well this is Syria, and there are two separate and simultaneous tracks. One diplomatic to pressure Russia to approve a Chapter 7 UNSC after May 5, and the other de facto where Turkey will create after May 23 a protected border zone to enable aid to refugees and to the FSA to regroup and conduct operations in tandem with an unprecedented and undeclared stealthy US drone attack campaign on selected high value targets. Combined aerial final combat sorties can follow in the terminal phase, joined with some UN troops on ground.

The objective is the demise and the trial of the Assad clan asap, and the call on a international conference in Moscow or Berlin to define the transition and the democratic course that will guarantee all parts and minorities.

Failure to act in Syria will transform ahime’ the colors of the US presidential residence forever, as it will have responsibility for Syrian innocent blood.

The RED HOUSE.

As for North Korea, it is expected that the attitude of the regime will constantly rely on threats, negotiations, and other tactics, seeking recognition and manipulated by an adjacent chinese neighbor delivering some technical assistance. This will lead to a nuclear detonation, but will not bring a conflict. Much caution and patience are on demand, and the solution is not on the immediate horizon.

Bilateral relations with Russia, China, India, Japan, Vietnam Brazil, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, other nations and Lebanon will need constant assessment and openness, but one thing can be affirmed, the US should find itself before reaching to the others.

In truth a major soul finding should be done in the US administration as their own message is lost and they are transmitting a flu image.

 “Spoken thoughts conduce to better ties, relevant changes are sourced by a frank approach”

Thank you,


G Twenty

October 20, 2011

Abraham Alfonse Albert Gallatin

Image by Phil Roeder via Flickr

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ There is nothing worse than a semblance of an agreement or an inadequate solution, in truth this is a moment of profound changes”

We knew from some news sources about a possible European solution to actual crisis, brokered by the Franco-German pillar, and filtered by the US treasury secretary.

We consequently heard about a split in positions and a blur line in the definition of the tools to be managed by Europe for the sake of debt limitation and containment.

Chancelleries were expecting a deal to emerge by October 23, to be introduced to the media and to the G-20 , however it is unlikely that this will happen.  

My perception is that we need to start yes in Europe, but with a wider consensus.

European governments alone can’t manage actual crisis, and widening the audience too much is not consequential, hence it is my creed that the G-20 must act, by calling an emergency summit by November 10  .

In my last posting I suggested a Russian role and involvement, but this nation is still anchored to past practices although apparently it has modernized a little bit, therefore I tend now to lay the solution of international financial problems in the G-20 forum.

What is needed more than any European rescue Fund or a World Bank or an IMF intervention, is a decision to deal promptly and without delay or limitations by the G20 to the upcoming solvency of Greece, which will transcend to a global level inevitably.

I envisage the initiative to be taken by the US and China, where a special emergency fund ( SEF) will be  instated by the G-20 , having the funds and sustainment of the adherent nations to salvage Greece from default.

It is sufficient initially to put together 100 Billion Euros financed or guaranteed by the G20 governments in different forms, and delegated to a financial arm already existing to apply a policy of debt relief.

The policy can consist of European banks write downs of 25 %, the SEF supervision of mergers and refinancing of selected European financial institutions, Intra-European departure special anti-default tax and other tools to be introduced by other experts.

Whenever the G20 will add failure to the international arena, then the populace is destined to embark on heavy protests, as the climate will deteriorate.

Perhaps then this is the appropriate momentum for warmongers to assuage an old dream to move the ME puzzle in a pendulum adverse to the actual fluid equilibrium.

Shall we expect from Mid November, harsh geopolitical crisis or will G20 leaders show robust vision and act wisely?

It is my conviction that Occupy Wall Street movement and the “Indignati” should call on a plenary session and adopt above plan or revise it, and appeal to the G20 to lead, based on this vision.  

” responsivness is a great scenario, implementation is an excellent outcome, where consistency is a common belief. Reason, tenacity, light and love ”

Thank you,


The sounding ALARM

March 24, 2011

Alarm Call

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The correct assessment of unprecedented ME popular demands and the forecast of their evolution will immensely affect the geopolitics of the world in the coming decade”

It is of wide acceptance to consider sense making as a major tool for policy makers, leading to links in the sequence of events and contributing effectively in the making of history.

Formulating action necessitates an accurate set of analysis that will be translated into a coordinated and preferably liberal line of action.

Reading the Sudan post referendum, the shield on Lebanon from regional unrests, the Tunisian and Egyptian changes, the Yemeni expected resignation of Saleh, or Omani protests, Jordanian nuisance, Bahraini crackdown, Moroccan requests, Iranian desire for freedom, as much as Saudi or Chinese requirements for structural reforms, the UNSCR 1973 on Libya, the reprisal of missile launching and terrorist activity in Gaza,the Daraa’ led formula, and to end the spinning issue of Cote D’Ivoire and/or other African nations do recommend an approach based on case by case basis.

While the European meeting will have spinning and perhaps unresolved monetary issues, the US recovery confirms its pace amid dissuaded fear from negative perspectives generated by the geological earthquake that caused the meltdown in Japan.

Let me start with the forecasts. Although critics assume changes in Tunisia and Egypt are considered a make up where expendable leaders already left the scene, to keep in place elites playing in the hands of capitalism and vested interests. The change by itself will unavoidably open a new page leading to advancement in terms of information flow, openness, universal rights and social consensus mechanisms. It remains to be verified if the democratic reforms in Egypt and Tunisia will be of liberal nature or else.

In Yemen the inevitable outcome is the ousting or resignation of President Saleh, a fate that will be shared eventually by Libya’s Colonel Ghaddafi where both ex-leaders together to their entourage will seek exile or refuge in Asian nations, perhaps Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malesia or Bhutan. The new leadership although imperfect in both Yemen and Libya will ensure unity of their nations and seek to establish modern institutions dealing with major issues of the citizenry. One would comment that this is pretty vague as an assigned mission, even if much better as a perspective than the ongoing civil strife.

Omani, Moroccan and Jordanian issues are contained to a certain extent and the sage approach of the sovereigns will contribute to introduce swift reforms and transit to a constitutional monarchy tutoring the basic and fundamental rights of citizens and setting the core base for economic prosperity and national security.

Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan will cross into a period of relative calm and stability as the rulers will proceed firmly in applying openings and defining the check and control within the components of each collectivity.

China will reach the righteous decision to allow an opposition to prosper and to express itself legally, and this will start inside the ruling party general committee, where a transparent vote will send a clear signal to the Chinese that there are two distinct views , both competing for the government and for the execution of policy in peaceful tools.

The multiple economic hubs US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Brazil, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Israel and Lebanon will proceed into their leading role determining global growth.

The US Modern Grand Strategy that already led the transition from mono-polar governance to multi-hub governance had its best moment in the UNSCR 1973 even though claims are sent by different American sectors that the intervention will have a great cost that will affect the budget retooling.

If it is true that America has a major debt and requires important restructuring and renovation, it is also true that it is not an island detached from the international scene. It is wise to accept a transition phase where perfecting the ballerina role will necessitate time from one side and further sacrifices from another. Controlling influence and playing down the power projection will be pivotal for the US administrations.

Only the consequential approach in foreign affairs, can secure the peaceful conduit for soft and eased international relations. Pillars will continue to be US full partnership with Russia, strategic cooperation with India, economic concert with China and empowerment of emerging powers.

The supreme leader and the IRG in Iran might benefit from oil prices increases, but they will have a major hurdle to express soft power or lead a network of regional mechanisms. Their failure to portray nothing else but fear and terror will bring them down sooner or later in a nice surprise that will restitute unity to the honorable Iranian peoples.

While waiting for the nice surprise from Iran, the world audience was informed about the events in the Syrian town Dara’a. Contrary to many analysts view, the status of immunity from pervasive and surging protests, conferred to the Syrian ruthless regime, was drowned by 15 youngsters.

The protest will not stop until effective changes will be implemented and this theater will be the most refreshing at all.

As for the Cote D’Ivoire I adhere to the open letter lately written by the International Crisis Group.

Governance in the coming decade, as known, will focus on widening international trade, strengthening education exchange, monitoring immigration fluxes, achieving global security and securing food provisions.

It will put in place a crisis management, ensure aid delivery, protect energy routes, decrease currency fluctuations, introduce finance regulations, suggest reforms and gradually reduce debt, while allowing growth, exports and pouring spending.

Considering the geopolitics in the area comprised between China and Portugal, in my view today there are two theaters that rivet the most intricate status ever.

These are Gaza and Lebanon.

It is understood that there are two red lines the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty and liberal democracy of Lebanon.

And to maintain these red lines, the multi-hub governance active through balancing nations Brazil, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway and Qatar will act in resonance to further contribute in the design of freedom expansion and peaceful world governance.

As we all know the slowdown of the Iranian nuclear activity was not met by a dynamic Israeli peace initiative, and this paved the way for rogue elements to disrupt the existing truce by actual mortar and missile attacks in Gaza, that reached their apogee in the Jerusalem bus attack a’ la rigueur.

Simultaneously the impending STL pre-trial announcement of the indictments within a couple of weeks or so, determined a preventive action by rogue politicians and armed Hizbullah to dismiss the Lebanese cabinet agreed upon in Doha and try to replace it by a monster cabinet that will bring on Lebanon the wrath of the international community.

Unfortunately the joint Iranian/Syrian maneuver to export both failing regimes, mischievous policies, and their own internal problems to the theaters of Gaza and Lebanon are the worst tricky episodes in this Middle Eastern revival or popular saga.

The regimes in Syria and Iran will push the region into war, to gain their own survival.

Israel must not fall in the trap and Lebanon should neither.

Low intensity fire exchange in Gaza can be accepted for a while, as much as international pressures must be exerted on both the Lebanese President and PM designate to form only a national unity cabinet and to press for dialogue and national consensus, maintaining in place the interests of peace, justice, stability and liberty.

Whenever low intensity in Gaza will deteriorate into armed conflict, and national unity cabinet in Lebanon will not be formed, the interests of the rogue regimes will be to push drastically for a regional war, to supersede internal pressures and to survive.

From above I ask all friends and allies of Lebanon and Israel to intervene immediately and avoid a major conflagration that will result into fire and human losses.

The actual strategic equilibrium was breached and it is already a pendulum waiting to explode.

Our duty is to control its outcome before it is too late.

Let me be clear, regional Peace can create the right environment for democracy, justice, stability and reforms in the Levant, by contrast war will bring havoc on both regimes in Syria, in Iran, and on Hizballah and Hamas.

A protracted military campaign in Gaza and any one sided government in Lebanon will trigger a wide regional “Casus Belli” and this means a major military invasion that will be expanding to Syria to entice the regime change and become multi-theater in case of Iranian meddling.

Peace is in danger and the status quo is already breached, therefore the most formidable armada and the best display of fire power, diplomacy and intelligence will display in favor of Lebanon, Israel and Palestine.

The alarm is raised to the maximum.

“ Despair will blind tyrants , but the wide plains of courage and young generations desire to conquer knowledge and love will prevail ”

Thank you,


Orchid Diplomacy

January 6, 2011

White orchid (better)

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Investing on converging areas will reduce divergence and dissolve conflict”

At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, one would look behind and ahead, to evaluate and detect past and future trends.

It is well known that the Sudan referenda, Turkish general elections, Egyptian presidential elections, Chinese fifth generation rulers, Russian primary role beneath NATO EAST, US recovery and demographic growth, emerging countries active balancing dynamics, are all fundamental and interconnected facts in this geopolitical year 2011.

We already know that NATO is seeking a new dawn best coined to be NATO East and NATO West, as much as the G 20 is trying to manage global problems, where policy makers are shaping world events in a sage approach.

It is widely accepted that the best form to avoid the major cultural and intellectual conflict ( Empire vs Republic), is to nurture different economic hubs (US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey etc..) to lead the engine of growth and prosperity.

The US Modern Grand Strategy on this regard is projecting great confidence in ruling the transition from mono-polar governance to a multi-hub governance, the peaceful conduit in ensuring smooth international relations.

Pillars for the multi-hub strategy are full partnership with Russia, strategic cooperation with India, and encompassing economic concert with China.

While it is comforting that data being filtered from the US related to employment, services growth and investments is confirming a gathering pace for the recovery, it is understood that major hurdles remain.

International trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes, global security, food provisions, aid delivery, energy provision, currency oscillation, finance regulations, reformed governance, debt reduction and collective cooperation and growth are all areas to be positively developed.

The geopolitics in the land mass comprised between China and Portugal are being managed for the benefit of the humanity.

The US Modern Grand Strategy acting as ballerina already delivered a new government in Iraq and will by the end of the year enact a “Jirga Governance” in the Af-Pak Theater which witnessed recently dramatic events including assassinations.

Areas of volatility and incertitude remain expressed in African/ Asian poverty, in Middle East lack of Peace and in North Korean/ Iranian/ Venezuelan irresponsible behavior.

Balancing nations with innovative and creative role like, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba, Norway and Lebanon are in need of further assertiveness to share the conduct of the world affairs.

Following the US lawmakers bipartisan success to extend Tax cuts and to approve the START, it is a major desire to see soon in place regulation holidays for start-ups, a flat VAT introduction, empowerment of further immigration, definition of the plan to transform public waste into wealth and expansion of exports in goods and services.

Furthermore the hope is high that the plan defined to gradually reduce US national debt without affecting the recovery will be put on track.

What will affect mostly the land mass between China and Portugal in the coming decade are spinning focal points: Central Asia, The Korean Peninsula, the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, the Persian Gulf and the Nile nations.

Prominent and dominant issues in foreign affairs are the Iranian attempt to become nuclear, the instability in the Af-Pak Theater; the Israeli impotence to insert itself in its Arab entourage and the Russian modern evolution from an old competing power to a full partner with the WEST.

By the end of January a meeting will be held in Istanbul between the 3+3 and the Iranian Regime representatives to try to find a diplomatic solution for the nuclear issue.

It is well known that covert operations coupled to sanctions are affecting the Iranian effort to enrich uranium and to develop and deliver a nuclear device.

In truth the convincement of western chancelleries is that a diplomatic agreement remains the consequential way to move forward and broker a verifiable deal.

Germany with its special links to Russia and to Turkey can well take the initiative and propose a singular initiative versus Iran in coordination with the US that can build on the offer of the actual US president and on the deal announced some time ago by the Turkish/Brazilian Duo.

What is the nature of the deal that will be accepted by the Iranian regime is the question that analysts need to investigate.

The western interest is to ascertain that Iran at no time will have enough enriched uranium on its territory to produce a device, therefore Germany can broker an innovative solution where less enriched uranium on Iranian soil will be met with less sanctions, and the end game will be to end sanctions and verify that Iran has only civil nuclear energy.

Failure to reach this accord will plunge the area into the mud and the gray will be transformed into black, where strife will be highly likely and covert operations perhaps deteriorating into war will be the reign of the new Mossad Chief.

On another hand the stall in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians must be ended, and the Israeli elite should better comprehend that they are endangering the state and the republic by their obtuse idle standing and political deadlock.

Israel must sooner rather than later find a charismatic leader that will lead the nation from an apartheid and racist policy to an open and just policy.

Coming to the soon to be announced indictment of the STL, it is accepted at this stage that the entire process will have a legal “iter” and that unless Lebanon will embark on government reforms dedicated to the benefit of the citizenry a golden goose opportunity will be once again lost.

Here I must add that there is no major Syrian interest than to aid and support Lebanon to tutor acceptance, tolerance and diversity, so that it can benefit by extension from the ripple effects of the Cedar nation democratic stability.

In tandem to the German initiative with Iran, Mr Sarkozy during his upcoming visit to Washington can coordinate with the US a special invitation to Netanyahu and Assad to meet in Paris tete a’ tete with the ultimate goal to finalize normalcy and peace.

Both the French and German initiatives will be petals in the same translucent orchid diplomacy activated in tandem with US benediction. They will have a beneficial effect on Federal Palestine, Peaceful Iran, and Justice plus reforms in Lebanon. These will play also pivotal to synchronize the Chinese advance in Middle Eastern Affairs. Mr Hu Jinatao in his upcoming visit to washington will help us further if he will adopt positively these future trends . 

Lebanon needs an internal “ Commission for prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics, will follow up on the STL and will define and implement harmony and establish good governance.

Lebanon will become the pole for conventions specialized in Liquids, Banking, Aesthetics, Pharmaceutical, Fashion, Jewelry and inventions. In absence however of final agreements, two red lines will still always exist and persist and these are the security of the state of Israel from one side ,and from another side the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense to reach permanent and just peace with all its neighbors including Israel.

The “Casus Belli” means a major military invasion that will be expanding and multi-theater, overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Therefore no party has any interest to start any conflagration and this is well known by both Israel and Hizbullah.

Palmyra and Akkar will both become territories for alternative energy to provide wind electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

Charities will succeed to impede war and will navigate in between conflicting interests focusing on convergence.

The area will grow if it will adopt a Euro 2 currency concept, where Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iran and the GCC nations, confluent into the Unity of the Mediterranean will link with Russia and Europe into the Euro 2.

To end I freely mention a contributor of WordPress :

“ dear little soul you have great power and you are mysterious like the rarest flower”

Thank you,


Lebanon the state, no pariah

November 18, 2010

Map showing the Blue Line demarcation line bet...

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Solving issues and finding solutions is the ultimate success for politicians”

On the eve of the NATO-Russian meeting in Lisbon and following the G 20 gathering in Seoul, policy makers are looking with emphasis, to the US Modern Grand Strategy which managed to impose itself, as a conduit for easing international relations.

Nato can be at a new dawn where under the same umbrella, a Nato West and a Nato East, will project cooperation for the best interest of humanity, hence perform attention to pacific areas and to the near “Intermarrium” abroad.  

From here partnering between the US/EU and Russia from one side and concerting relations between the US and China to generate a dual engine for economic growth from another, are two pillars for the 21st century peaceful performance.

While transition is supreme until a better framework is developed and defined for international trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes and global security; it is inevitable that priorities should be set.

From above food provisions, aid delivery, energy security, currency oscillations, finance regulations, reformed governance, are all actual requirements in our contemporary world.

Data about the economic recovery will fluctuate and sentiments will be subject to ups and downs, yet without optimism in US consumer spending and increase in Chinese spending it is widely accepted that the economic comeback will lag and be threatened by either inflation or deflation.

Analysts share the need to rebalance international economies, however in doing this, the need is to recover the US market and simultaneously create other growth hubs, especially in China and India.

This will naturally affect the geopolitics of the land mass area stretched between China and Portugal. The US policy acting as ballerina will spur the recovery and reduce the debt, open to immigration, focus on education, integrate with Russia, concert with China, establish a stable rotation in government in Iraq and facilitate the “Jirga Governance” in the Afghanistan theater.

The US will enforce the mechanism to change the attitude of the Iranian guards; it will broker the talks between Israel and the Palestinians and project international cooperation on tense fronts. Be these the Korean Peninsula, the African Continent, Guinea , Madagascar, or the Thai kingdom.

This policy will be implemented faster if coupled to an enforced role of balancing nations like, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba, Norway and Lebanon.

Efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, where the formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

Whenever US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks, the outlook for the economy will shine.

Much will be left to be done such as defining a plan to transform public waste into wealth and expand exports in goods and services. Furthermore investment in infrastructure, education and human resources and the gradual plan to reduce national debt without affecting the recovery.

As much as the new START treaty needs to be passed in both chambers hopefully by the end of the year with a bipartisan wise action.

Rumors are spreading about a US – Israeli understanding to freeze partially the settlements in exchange for some assurances, in order to reactivate talks with the NPA, and this is a very good thing.

We need to see a Syrian position versus peace clarified after the announced Israeli withdrawal from Northern Gajar, so that both nations Israel and Syria can reach out in direct talks in Paris early next year.

Whenever there will be no advance this will deteriorate the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, widening the probability for strife and ultimately of a major war.

The evolution in the Five plus One talks with Iran will seek a new accord to impede any military use of nuclear power, as much as peace talks will define an interim Federal Palestine and the successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, will be all pivotal, to synchronize the Chinese advance in Middle Eastern Affairs to be acting in tandem with international efforts to stabilize and ensure progress in the oil rich territorial area.

In the “Third Dynamic” and in “The Crossroads” I elaborated about factors and dynamics influencing world affairs, and the requirement to put the third dynamic under strict control, and to avoid any halt to the march of justice in Lebanon.

While observers agree that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, it is expected that the indictment of the STL will be announced and that the reaction of the accused will not exceed rhetoric. In fact any wise calculation of benefit and loss will decisively not alter the acting formula before the trial will stand and the verdict issued.

And even then, when the verdict is known,  it is doubtful in front of the Sudanese example that a major event will change the Lebanese status quo. Pessimist observers and verbal threats will not succeed to stop the work of the STL, and the indictment will be announced as much as the trial and the verdict will be accomplished.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon, rather to bring to justice the perpetrators , but in the same time to create a mechanism of salvation “ A commission for Prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics of the cedar nations and will seek rapprochement and harmony between all communities. A regeneration of State Affairs is much on demand, approval of the budget, setting a policy for reforms and route map for jobs creation.

Lebanon ‘s place is to become a pole for conventions specialized in Liquids ( water, beer, vodka, whiskey, wine, Oil, etc…), Banking, Aesthetics, Pharmaceutical and inventions.   

The IRGC, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah can operate in darkness but they will fail to affect the events ahead. The military build up and power accumulated will oblige them to think twice before unleashing a conflict or to surrender in case of it.

Two red lines exist and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense to reach permanent and just peace with all its neighbors including Israel.

The Lebanese state is not a pariah rather a full expression of auto-determination of a civil society and its future will not be played by armed gangsters.

Violence and peace always differ, but with a heavy price and toll for both, be this of destruction or construction.

Any strategic error to start the HOSTILITIES will expand into its effects to a very wide area. In any case this will not alter the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Iraqi and Af-pak theaters.

All Lebanese parties should relax to the STL indictment to be announced in the first week of December, and must work to instate a “Commission for Progress and Truth” and find a compromise enabling the accused to be detained for a certain period, and to pay a material sum to have the pardon for their murderous action in killing so many innocents and politicians. Furthermore the focus must concentrate on evolving the state of Lebanon to become a Tourism example and an engine for growth. 

This is possible if justice will pinch or soupcon an accepatable outcome for the citizenry. 

There will be no “Casus Belli”, simply because who will dare to change the equation will need to face the reaction expected in two phases.

The first will be slow and intense, issuing alerts and warnings, and the second after assessing the situation will give the green light for a major military invasion that will be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will lose once and for all, and the IRGC will have less influence in the whole area. Syria will stand idle even after bombing all Hezbollah targets inside its territories to erase the lines of supply.

The International community will broker the “Commission for Progress and Truth” as much as it did with the STL for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

Whenever Hezbollah will gamble, the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and Syria will oblige the IRGC to lose an important card to save the regime itself from perishing.

The Syrian commander in chief has no other choice than to align himself with the alliance and work hard to find diplomatic solutions, for the benefit of all parties. Palmyra and Akkar will both become hubs for alternative energy to provide electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

The indictment will pave the way for the tribunal to issue its verdicts and the compromise will be to reach peace for all, as there is no alternative to this than a war that will allow Israel to use Lebanese offshore fossil hydrocarbons.

Charities will play a significant role to impede war, and whenever an armed conflict can not be impeded then these will help to rebuild the damages and to express post-bellum sound governance.

The area can grow and seek a common currency between Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iran and the GCC nations, confluent into the Unity of the Mediterranean or it will become a theater for strife and interminable conflict.

“Charities recommend to armed militias the way for peace, and Hezbollah better follow”

Thank you,