The Clock doesn’t go retro, Bismark, Breznev, Donald and Cambysses

April 29, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”  Seneca

Following the diffused video of the Anonymous group, about the presidential candidate Clinton, http://buzzpo.com/anonymous-blew-lid-off-hillary-clinton/  another presidential candidate illustrated his foreign policy in a videotaped speech, which inconsistencies were well reported by the Guardian ,  http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/27/trump-inconsistencies-foreign-policy  .

One can ask to where the US global power will walk into the 21st century.  A recent article explains https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-04-13/once-and-future-superpower?cid=nlc-fatoday-20160414&sp_mid=51151234&sp_rid=ZWtuNzdAaG90bWFpbC5jb20S1&spMailingID=51151234&spUserID=MTY3NTgxNjQ2MzMwS0&spJobID=901780163&spReportId=OTAxNzgwMTYzS0

that the US has a lot of accumulated advantage on the nearest challenger China, and this per se’, is symptom of the times to come.  Donald Reagan (Trump) whenever he will get elected president will open the way for an era of major military investments and a withdrawal of US multinationals to domestic shores.

If “America First” is the motto of the Atlantic upcoming, “Static China” might be the prophecy expressed by the policies of President Xi Bismarck ( Jinping) to answer the question posed by the article   http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/05/12/who-is-xi/  . President Xi can be a mix between the proud Emperor Qinglong, the savvy Zhou Enlai and ultimately the audacious and cautious Lukashenko. He was born and he lived in a dynamic authoritarian society, and this reality coupled to his desire and instinct of modernity, can be an opportunity to stir events positively. An evolution from Chinese Communism to Chinese adapted redistribution of richness: a new political subject. June Dreyer was asking in the link below if he will stay the course, http://www.fpri.org/…/connecting-dots-will-xi-stay-course/

most likely yes, yet not in the literal sense of the word rather in a figurative sense. The most recent moves to clamp down on foreign companies and NGO’s, reveal the degree of ineptitude and of concern that exist in the inner circle of Xi, versus the internal political environment in China and the growing dissent. While concentration of power on the contrary to what Deng Xiao Ping professed, could reveal an asset to clean Chinese corruption standards, the danger is that it will ultimately transform the Chinese dynamism to become similar to the static Russian authoritarianism. The economist lately published an article entitled Chairman of Everything, http://www.economist.com/…/21695923-his-exercise-power…
which is a sober analysis of today’s China, even if I tend to take a more patient stand versus XI. In the sense that we need to give him a dual treatment, from one side to clarify where the strategic loop is especially in the naval domain, from another to prompt neutral observation of the internal theater where the COE operates, be this on an anti craft, economic, reform oriented or simply power hungry efforts. In a nation where more than a billion, 300 million citizens cater every day needs and services, it is early to say and not yet to be seen how the maneuver exerted by the COE affects the entire edifice so far. He is basically walking in uncharted territory, discovering a new future for his country; hence he needs help to understand boundaries, limits, shape of global leadership, etc… China is an economic infant that evolved into incredible hulk in 30 years time. China through Xi requires now a firm hand that will generate security to its dreams and plans for a better connected world. A firm hand that shows Xi the way almost peacefully, and looks to the upcoming fifty years that will follow, with special attention to  human rights and to the rest of the universal attributes. Reforms including birth control policy and the ease on Hukou System are only a small portion of what is required to become as per Eric Hobsbawm  description of Bismarck “remained undisputed world champion at the game of multilateral diplomatic chess for almost twenty years after 1871, [and] devoted himself exclusively, and successfully, to maintaining peace between the powers.”

Considering that the tantrum imposition of China is to avoid becoming static, along the DNA lines of the Russian bear, as per link http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/28/static-regime-russia-s-reversion-from-popular-autocracy/ixpz  it is pivotal for Russia though not to embark in new adventures, even if a recent RAND study recognizes its infantry advantage in East Europe.

The conundrum of Vladimir Breznev ( Putin) as illustrated here http://www.fpri.org/article/2016/04/putins-conundrum-baltic-region-unconventional-threats-rising-russia/  is not only limited to the sphere of geopolitics but also to direct his Asian pivot somewhere  http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/22/pivot-to-nowhere-realities-of-russia-s-asia-policy/ixfw  while changing the balance with the moderate factions in Moscow http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44529.htm  into something that doesn’t degenerate into an old fashion static communism. It is obvious that the clock doesn’t go retro.

While the moves in Crimea are very worrisome, http://defence-ua.com/index.php/en/publications/defense-express-publications/914-militarization-of-occupied-crimea-a-threat-to-global-security  , those in the sphere of Russian European integration are much worse, as they are limited only to energy calculation.  Russia needs to become new and neutral while modernizing its nuclear and space industries, and Vladimir Breznev needs to cease to be a god father and become a modern father to his nation.

So while NATO is planning to move two brigades East as a starter http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/03/nato-russia-summit-2016/126781/  and the cessation of hostilities in Syria is not happening, one needs to walk a two pronged policy, the summit of NATO – Russia talks reinstatement even if not effective so far, but also the Geneva opportunity.
Let us don’t stop only at http://www.theguardian.com/com…  yet move forward considering that the US of A has every interest in generating a mechanism of talks that ends with a Russian conviction to become neutral, nuclear and adopt a new state policy of grandeur on the international platform.
The Russian sophistication consists in elaborating a new role of the state within the context of its geography that stretches along a defensive line from ST PETERSBURG to Rostov. Whenever Russia will come to terms in expressing a modern state politics based on diversifying its economy, and exerting a role of pacifier in Europe and the Eurasian Plateau, then we are at an excellent dawn for humanity.
However, in the specifics and looking into the SYR-AQ Theater and after checking on several latest options  http://www.globalresearch.ca/k…  I believe the best chances to stabilize the Levant are for Russia to open its cards with Syria in Geneva and get to the settlement of 3 states within that SYR-AQ theater. Southern Syria its capital is Damascus (with a Alawite and a Druze autonomy and minority guarantees), Southern Iraq its capital is Baghdad (with a Sciite predominance). And a Central state stretching from the outskirts of Baghdad to the outskirts of Damascus, along Mosul, Anbar, with its capital Raqqa, up to Idlib and Deir Zor, and including two Kurdish federal zones , one in ex Iraq ( Kurdistan)and another in ex Syria ( as declared in Rmeilan) . This Central State ( to be called Al Joumhouria Al Arabia Al Wosta) will have also a maritime access to the Mediterranean next to Kassab.
Let us not forget that the Mediterranean basin is a demographic plurality that needs to be transformed into a manufacturing asset. Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Iran and Turkey that represent about 200 million citizens and their joint productivity can easily be placed as GDP and nominal purchasing power, number 12 or 13 worldwide behind Mexico, Britain and Italy, if only we look at this from a geopolitical benefit eliminating radicalism, nihilism, intolerance and totalitarianism. Once this strategic conundrum is solved, then bilateral talks US/Russia can focus also on arms control, nuclear START, and on the European theater.
This can be done in respect to the new realities of hydrocarbon assets, drilling, alternative energy, gas production and else.

And here comes the role of Cambysses (Qassem) Suleimani  as a power player https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/irgc-irans-power-player-1090  capable to stir his country into an era of peace and modernity. But how far is this man from the connotations of another reformer Aref as mentioned here http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/iran-parliamentary-elections-aref-speaker-larijani.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+[English]&utm_campaign=9277f816e4-April_25_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-9277f816e4-102500041  ?

Never as before, governance rotating around strong ego characters will manage world affairs, and dilute liberties favoring militarism, and confrontation.  Fusion of civilizations    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-04-18/fusion-civilizations  and solar energy opportunities  https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/bright-future-solar-power-middle-east?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SaturdaysendLLSolar4232016&utm_content=topimage&hsCtaTracking=d23a2abb-39a2-43a3-9aff-1ec90dcb2815|a5b7c7a7-f823-4cb6-a41f-fd9d1dbcf5a4&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–b9nq42PDCvKmKajRzaAq4pzTaiYJPh0rLnK1rs1goE5ahR4pcUp_ASVNw73h2L3Wrp5Z2bBsAy93HuGU18V5ARVSy0A&_hsmi=28813316  will not be sufficient, very likely, to model solutions around prioritized International challenges .

“Non est ad astra mollis e terris via” – “There is no easy way from the earth to the stars” Seneca

Thank you,

Advertisements