Greetings and Good day,
While the negotiations in GENEVA are ongoing to determine the shape of the transition cabinet that will empower the Syrian state with reforms and just representation, it is unfortunate that in LEBANON efforts to form the cabinet are dragging indefinitely.
While my personal opinion is favoring without any doubt the neutral cabinet as per previous posts, I will contribute with the efforts trying to manage a deal based on a triple 8 formula or 12 / 12 as we wish to call it.
The principle is that we need to generate a mechanism of comprehensive inclusiveness, although this will require major efforts from all sides to balance and stabilize the future phase. We all know that what are expected are the presidential elections and the electoral law, to pave the way for general elections to take place, giving true voice to the population representation rather than the extended and non constitutional voice of the actual parliament.
Far from any polemic and having in mind only the desire to form a cabinet, it is paramount for all politicians to submit a written understanding to institute a sovereign fund for oil and gas and to liberalize the licenses for mobile suppliers up to at least 5 providers.
Whenever this will be respected then I am keen to propose the following as an open hand to the Lebanese corrupt politicians to wake up and finalize the craft of the long awaited cabinet.
Considering the basics of an equal share in the total number of ministers between Muslims and Christians and the necessity to safeguard the triple 8 formula, the key in my proposal is to create a collective design to reform the nation/state from within, or else through the country’s warring elite, incapable to guide the country without resorting to foreign allegiance.
As Mr. Allison from Belfer Center says, the perfect is enemy of the good, what I suggest is as follows, to honor the interim accord between Iran and the P5 +1:
the Lebanese triple 8 cabinet :
5 Sunni :PM Mr. Tammam Salam, minister for Interior nominated by the FUTURE movement , Economy and trade FUTURE movement , Justice Mrs Layla Solh Independent/female quota or Mr Adnan Qassar in case Mrs Solh is not available , Information minister will be of the PM quota,
3 Orthodox : Foreign Affairs Mr. Samir Mokbel President quota, Culture FUTURE quota, Deputy PM Marada Movement
5 Sciite : Health Mr. Ali Hassan Khalil AMAl , Agriculture Mr.Hussein Hajj Hassan Hezbollah,Finance Amal quota , Sports and Youth FUTURE Quota, Minister of State President quota
3 Catholics: Telecommunications Mr. Nicolas Sehnaoui , Labour PM quota , Education Future quota
4 Maronites :Mr. Gibran Basil Water and Energy,Defense Mr. Botros Harb, Tourism Mr. Sami Gemayel ,Public Works an engineer from ACHRAFIEH district ( Lebanese Forces).
2 Druze: Social Affairs Mr.Wael Abu Faour, Displaced Mr. Talal Arslan
1 Armenian :Industry Mr Vrej Sabounjian or another Taschnak nominee
1 minorities : minister of state President quota ( preferably female )
N.B. Only in case the PSP will insist on two Druze ministers, then the youth minister will go to Hezbollah, and the minorities will go to the Future, keeping the balance of 8,8,8 .
I apologize as in the first version of this post, this nota bene was not mentioned .
This cabinet will ensure benefits for everyone.
The president will have a wide role in the formation and will have a say on the foreign affairs in respect with the Baabda declaration.
The PM will have generated the cabinet long awaited based on a balance and check unprecedented.
Hezbollah will be happy as a cabinet is formed and efforts will concentrate on diplomacy and the way how to develop the new policy in the upcoming six years of a new Lebanese president.
The Future will have secured a very effective management of the entire process and will have demonstrated that it has a share with all communities, while waiting for the STL to pronounce its verdict and the Lebanese reforms to kick start.
The Free Patriotic Movement will have secured its basic requests, whenever there will be a commitment to the sovereign fund and the telecommunications licenses.
The Marada movement will be represented very well, and perhaps this will open horizons for Baabda one day.
The Progressive and Socialist Party although somehow penalized, will be the main intermediary, simply because this will project it to the role of king maker in the presidency and the electoral law, after a delusional role in the extension of the parliament.
The Amal movement will have access to the budget ministry, and this will be a first step in ensuring a sort of mind changes within the communities vis a’ vis their traditional allotments.
The March 14 movement will have an excellent representation and the Lebanese Forces will be urged to reconsider for the benefit of LEBANON the nation state.
Some big names will start jockeying for the presidency and here we declare the presidency’s candidacies open.
This contribute is my last ditch separating Lebanon from the neutral cabinet to be formed not later than 10 February, in case of failure of the triple 8.
I sincerely wish that the triple 8 cabinet will be announced not later than 7 February.