But what ?

September 26, 2011

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Transforming a major liability into a big opportunity is a creative art, that needs fine knowledge and ability in performance”

While important journalists, writers, analysts and executives are deployed with deep approach to current global economic crisis, there is no doubt that not even one common denominator emerged on how to address in a methodic way the challenge ahead.

If it is true that the G-20 dedicated energy to this matter, as much as central bankers and international institutions are looking into exits, it is also true that none managed so far to offer a breakthrough and assure the markets with credible solutions.  

An editorial on the NYT on Sunday, invited US leaders to meet at Camp David until an American solution is introduced to long lasting problems affecting the US economy. This will enable the US to play its leading role in world affairs, set an example, and provide a solution to the debt, job market, house loans and startups.     

Unfortunately we are running almost in the election year and I don’t see this excellent idea feasible.

By contrast Japanese and Chinese state agencies are showing no interest to get involved seriously in this Atlantic affair, hence policy makers are dubious how to proceed.

I will start by the principles and consider that there are three different aspects in the current crisis, one is American, the second European and the third can be called the rest of the world.

We know that the US after 2 QE, will display a twist operation declared by the FED coupled to a plan lately announced by the White House.

We know also that it is clear that these initiatives will not be sufficient to confront the downturn alone. From here fiscal reforms, social security cuts, military expenses innovation, reschedule of house debts, regulation holiday for startups and existing firms, plus a further selective stimulus, are needed to distance the nation from recession.

On the European versant the German efforts are to be admired, especially that the consumer confidence is still resisting, however to be honest this country alone will not make it solo to salvage the PIIGSB.

What remains is the rest of the world and here chaos is supreme, as each and everyone is seeking refuge, for instance the Swiss decision to impede the Euro to go beyond 1.2 or another figure to be decided ahead.

Setting first things first I see that the area where something can be done urgently and effectively for the sake of everyone is Europe.

But what ?

The idea derives from energy and from observing the gas diplomacy between Germany and Russia.

I think that leaders in both countries are willing to explore a common way how to generate an innovative approach in Europe before their own elections next year, expanding responsible Russian role in cooperation with an economy that is driving in pole position the Germans.

While we know that the European Fund will be enacted soon and play a role of treasury, we know also that without the inclusion of further partners it is unlikely that the Fund will succeed to relieve present PIIGSB  hindrances.  Therefore I recommend a German/Russian/European entente to widen the gas cooperation into monetary stimulus and grants, and bring closer Russia to Europe.

This step which will increase world security, global peace and melt the Euro with the Ruble, will be extremely effective and bridge a balancing act between international chancelleries.

Russian and German dynamism can follow up with Turkey mainly and the duo Egypt / Saudi Arabia, to ensure the Syrian people will have reforms and a new government from one side, and the Iranian nuclear file to be only for civil usage from another.  

Will the Europeans succeed for once where the Americans are lagging?

“The difficulties are enormous, but this is where leadership is expected to act”

Thank you

 

 

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The Game Changer

September 18, 2011

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Where the actual economic crisis is of unmatchable proportions and world leaders are of insignificant guidance, reform of the institutions is pivotal”

While we are watching the developments in PIIGSB countries, and looking on ways how a miracle can salvage the expected default, world powers are intensely growing uneasy with their limited influence to stir events into a safe direction.

Markets are much impatient with the upcoming and unless a powerful leadership will express the route for international reforms, there is no escape from volatility and default with major discounts.

Analysts are commonly looking into dynamics to evaluate the future course, but even groups of countries such as BRICS or others are incapable to lead or to take the initiative.

Therefore in the era of search for power, the truth is that power is in the financial assets and these are not in the hands of a nation, yet in the hands of few monetary masters of the universe.

From here the collective debacle is nothing else but a victory of the illuminists, who are raping wealth and drilling at best in the Arctic and in the Mediterranean.

Investors are looking into the next FED steps willing to shift its maneuver from short term debt to long term and influence the markets accordingly without altering inflation by extending a new round of QE3.

In the same time they are watching how European nations will come up with a solution to the rapidly cracking euro zone. Matching economic problems ranging from labor and financial crisis, with geopolitical reduced influence of all major world powers, one can understand the reality of our times.

In between currency issues, metals are roaring for now, and it is expected that a debacle will affect the markets unless an illuminated leader will express vision and define the lines of common interests.

It is a fact that Arab spring events are important for the international stage as much as these are significant for their own constituencies. Hence it is expected that in the mass of incertitude, an October surprise will emerge and this will be a game changer in the Middle East.

The Turkish buffer zone in Syria will be imposed after an American green light and this will represent a balancing act to the offshore movements already launched in the sea.

Starting November, two major contenders will begin their elections, and this will bring us to a relenting tension in world affairs, in fact the US presidential race and the Iranian general elections will be very effective for the cause of peace in 2012.

We will all be looking into wise movements to benefit from the circumstances and defuse tension, and gather pace for the national accord and the regional evolution.

Hezbollah in Lebanon must go on a plenary session and assign officially defenders with the STL, and negotiate an innovative stance to bring the cedar nation to a new elevation of concord and wisdom distant from alacrity and animosity.

“Nothing is worse than fear, and inaction is synonym to full culpability, defense and accord by contrast are dynamics of evolution”

Thank you,


Transforming Iranian Guidance

September 10, 2011

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Whenever the search for power will lead to wise leadership, then actual crisis will have paid”

Economics theories abound lately, from Marxist derivatives to free fall scenarios.

Many analysts agree that we are in a critical juncture and unless vision is expressed and policies are put in place, the actual draining volatility will most likely endure.

We all realize that production is linked to consumption, and that richness should be distributed in a way to maintain a healthy job market.

Entrepreneurs are very keen to elaborate risk factors whenever they have financial support at low cost, even if the masters of the monetary universe will proceed undisturbed in their way to accumulate wealth.

Now that the plan for jobs was revealed by the White house, and that all indicators witnessed by the stock markets show a precipitous drop in valor and the Euro is living on perhaps and if’s, the global main street stretching from Hyderabad to Iquitos, are very much concerned to say the least.

Riots are on the rise from China to Egypt, while convulsive foreign affairs policies are shocking the international chairs by tactics linked to local issues rather than geopolitics, e.g. Turkish and Israeli skirmishes.

The above is moving across a major crisis in the Syrian theater considered to be a geopolitical iceberg for upcoming major changes in the supply of power and energy in the future.

In my last posting I indicated a route for three historic nations to gather steam and find out possible options to cooperate to find solutions for the constituency, I called on Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt (where security is deteriorating with attacks on embassies), to explore overture and seize a difficult economic momentum, by setting summits to work on confidence building and regional political guidance.

These summits together to a G-8 now become very urgent , as the FED missed the opportunity in June to extend a decreasing soft QE3 and preferred to stay idle and watch, hence now we will face the truth and get along a reality, that without a further state intervention, there is no possibility to exit the stalling economy.

In dire straits, it is inevitable that leaders must expose themselves and show capability, assure the citizenry and the markets, explain the horizons ahead, set the bar, avoid losses, entice entrepreneurial spirit, enforce liberal standards, universal rights and acceptance.

In the era of search for power, there is a lack in statesmanship and an absence of communication between the markets and citizens from one side and the institutions from another.

The fact is that the gap is widening between humanity and the monetary masters of the universe.

Immediate actions are required although US long term presence is almost secured in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and energy routes and supplies are better than before.

The bottom line is that a vision is needed for international reform of the institutions, and this is an excellent opportunity for the Iranian regime to open a new page with the International community.

Whenever Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey will not transform liability into options, then I tend to forecast a very dynamic role of the Iranian president ahead of the last quarter, to secure many benefits and win his battle of regional leadership assuring chancelleries worldwide.

Three issues are at stake, the Iranian nuclear file, the STL and Hezbollah arms, the Syrian transitional regime.

“ Wise leadership will calculate an everlasting panorama for cooperating interests, projecting soft power and increasing influence”

Thank you,


Clairvoyance

September 2, 2011

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ It takes a thought to have a clairvoyance, it takes a misjudgment to efface rationality ”

In an effort to assess the actual stage in world affairs, many observers may express thoughts based on concrete facts, others may interpret erroneously certain factors.

We are in between solid elements of objective analysis and feeble perceptions transforming reactions into invisible gracility.

Following two quantitative easing FED policies, a major contraction, a crisis in homes and labor in the US, volatility in global markets, efforts to sustain the Greek, Irish, Spanish Italian and Portuguese economies, uncertainty in German output and uneasiness of BRICS countries, no nation seems powerful enough to lead the stage.

The temptation is to define the present era : “search for power” rather than “superpower”.

In the midst of a crisis in Leadership, of policy expression and wise planning, the citizenry is helpless, clueless and looking for true leaders.

While it is true that major confrontations are lacking in the world stage since the Cold War, it is also true that the US loss of image, the Arab unfolding events, the Chinese and Russian side walking and the absence of alternative powers, do make our times, only an appreciation of Gold.

The desire to produce, the effectiveness of manufacturing, the consumer spending, the market dynamics, are all, factors pending in the economy, without a valuable tax policy, an aggressive job approach and a monetary debt control.

While an agreement between Russo/American companies was reached for drilling in the arctic and in US territories, Italian ENI signed an agreement with the Libyan provisional council and we can imagine that soon Syrian, Lebanese and Israeli drillings will follow suit.

Coming to the lungs of the planet, one should elaborate rapidly an innovative concept to be updated with the succession of changing governments.

Without doubt the most important event in the upcoming autumn will be the Syrian clan defeat and its impossibility to survive the main street call for freedom.

A transition will be in course in Damascus and an enforcement of law will be exerted by a national alliance of purpose willing to adjust to the search for a world order.

Therefore if search for power is the title, the exertion of governance will be based on adequate and measured policies, necessary to re-establish trust and to focus on positive reforms.

 Two pivotal months will generate an effort to declare Palestine, to work for peace in the ME and to ensure a dual Saudi/Egyptian overture versus the Iranian regime display of aggressive assets to project power in disguise (civil reactor) and local militias supplanted in neighboring countries.

During the search for power, what three historic nations can do is to get closer and find a way how to stabilize the ME and to introduce effective reforms for the best sake of humanity.

Potentates and chancelleries should set an environment to facilitate a legal evolution of Hezbollah, in order to avoid a nightmare scenario.

This will undoubtedly ease tension in Lebanon and help implement a national accord with guarantees to all parties involved.

The struggle will endure between forces of darkness willing to plunge all and everything in perpetual war and destruction, and forces of hope trying to defuse tension and to find reasonable compromises.

Independents, observers, analysts, policy makers, should have no doubt how the outcome will be? In fact only creative minds can win the battle for humanity.

“ In the middle of nowhere , entangled in no sound, inelegant in forming words, perplex in deciphering concepts, one would seem lost, but then the rays come up and the glory of mind will illuminate hope and prosperity”

 Thank you,