Greetings and Good Day,
“…. Wet moon on bluestem, if sound is enough. If sound is enough, trillium tryst. Mouth full of dark roses; if image is enough …” James Henry Knippen , Moon.
Following the decision of the US president to define a resolved stand versus the Syria regime use of CW, analysts and think tanks are trying to figure out and forecast the upcoming phase.
We know that briefings are conducted at Capitol Hill and that lobbying is very effective, a vote will be cast next week seemingly.We know also that G 20 will gather in St Petersburg and that Mr. Putin today is trying to project a more flexible image, hiding behind sovereignty and international law.
We know also that Germany and France have much at stake to empower a European unified stand vis a’ vis the Syrian Crisis, by embarking Russia on board of the UNSCR seeking to define a political transition in Syria and ensure the universal rights of the people.
A question is a must to Mr. Putin: Does the sovereignty of Dictators principle supersede the Universal rights of the massacred populace? Can a nation state be within the UN criteria in presence of a chemical mass destruction of humanity which is against all UN metrics?
In truth Mr. Putin is a geopolitical hacker looking to gain profits all over, and now that the Gas industry in the US and in the Mediterranean are flourishing, Putin’s mantra to create the gas cartel evaporates.
International diplomatic efforts will still need to work closely and without fatigue to bring Russia on board, and the US ambassador in Moscow may be inviting with impunity Mr. Snowden to the US embassy for a chat.
Getting to the heart of the Syrian crisis, we know that a joint Israeli / US missile experiment was conducted yesterday and that military preparedness is on the verge.
While this phase is pretty much of professional diplomacy to garner support and to create the largest alliance possible, it is thought that there are some military certainties to be listed.
For one, my assumption is that the Syrian regime barracks and assets in and around Aleppo, which are surrounded by the opposition, will not be targeted during the US led strike.
By contrast the assets in and around Damascus are considered pivotal to degrade the regime, mainly the command centers, the military runways, the air defenses including radars and anti-aerial assets, and the units in charge for missile launching , conventional or not.
What will be required is that the US led strike, which is going to project an overwhelming fire power, reduces collateral damage on civilians to zero.
My assumption is also that the Iranian regime will partially fight back, by
emboldening Hezbollah and authorizing it to engage Israel remotely, perhaps by launching some missiles from Syrian territory. As we know that the strategic role of Hezbollah for Iran, is to open a direct front in Lebanon with Israel, whenever military heat will be applied on Iran for the nuclear file.
Iran in front of an international coalition attack on Syria will presumably follow a dual path; it will support Assad partially, by allowing some sort of Hezbollah’s remote engagement with Israel. But it will also focus on a stop loss strategy, not to lose Hezbollah in Lebanon and keep this card at hand for the future nuclear confrontation.
What emerges is that the trap of Hezbollah intervention in Syria is going to play against Iran during the strike on Syria.
Obviously if the Iranians will decide to play a hard hand and open the Lebanese front, this will be met by an Israeli ground invasion, and I don’t see the military advantage of this scenario for the Iranians. Yet the IRGC might well think that it can re-arm Hezbollah and create an environment similar to 2006 in the aftermath of the strike, although the Syrian supply route will not be available anymore.
Rational thinking says that the Iranians in front of a strike on Assad, conducted by a major coalition, should stop the loss and save what it can in the Lebanese theater in terms of political influence and/or military. However there are several variables, also in terms of Iranian internal and regional politics and the strategic decision to go nuclear.
The US administration did wisely so far to manage the situation and it has to continue to do so, step by step, garner support and enlarge the coalition, and prepare the national and international public for a strike that looms, against perpetrators of crime against humanity.
“… A Damascene moon travels through my blood, Nightingales . . . and grain… and domes from Damascus, jasmine begins its whiteness, and fragrances perfume themselves with her scent…” Nizar Qabbani , A Damascene Moon
- Health Fears Grow In Damascus With Reported Chemical Attack (wnyc.org)
- Syrian George Jabbour claims Damascenes obsessed with threats from US (irishtimes.com)
- Jasmine in one hand and a sword in the other; Nizar Qabbani’s poetry of eroticism, nationalism and politics. (sumiasukkar.wordpress.com)
- I’m still waiting for my Damascene moment (paddyblewer.wordpress.com)
- Damascenes brace for dreaded Western ‘aggression’ (dailystar.com.lb)
- Syria Countdown: Syria & America exchange messages as both peoples breathe more easily…. … (therebel.org)
- Colors (zsahyouni.wordpress.com)
- Hezbollah says it Will Hit Israel from Inside Syria (blackchristiannews.com)
- Hezbollah says it will hit Israel from within Syria (timesofisrael.com)
- Syrian Official: Hezbollah Will Attack Western Warships on Syria’s Behalf (thetower.org)