A Damascene Moon

September 4, 2013

Dear Reader,

Russia

Russia (Photo credit: ccchan19)

Greetings and Good Day,

“…. Wet moon on bluestem, if sound is enough. If sound is enough, trillium tryst. Mouth full of dark roses; if image is enough …”    James Henry Knippen ,  Moon.

Following the decision of the US president to define a resolved stand versus the Syria regime use of CW, analysts and think tanks are trying to figure out and forecast the upcoming phase.

We know that briefings are conducted at Capitol Hill and that lobbying is very effective, a vote will be cast next week seemingly.We know also that G 20 will gather in St Petersburg and that Mr. Putin today is trying to project a more flexible image, hiding behind sovereignty and international law.

We know also that Germany and France have much at stake to empower a European unified stand vis a’ vis the Syrian Crisis, by embarking Russia on board of the UNSCR seeking to define a political transition in Syria and ensure the universal rights of the people.

A question is a must to Mr. Putin: Does the sovereignty of Dictators principle supersede the Universal rights of the massacred populace? Can a nation state be within the UN criteria in presence of a chemical mass destruction of humanity which is against all UN metrics?

In truth Mr. Putin is a geopolitical hacker looking to gain profits all over, and now that the Gas industry in the US and in the Mediterranean are flourishing, Putin’s mantra to create the gas cartel evaporates.

International diplomatic efforts will still need to work closely and without fatigue to bring Russia on board, and the US ambassador in Moscow may be inviting with impunity Mr. Snowden to the US embassy for a chat.

Getting to the heart of the Syrian crisis, we know that a joint Israeli / US missile experiment was conducted yesterday and that military preparedness is on the verge.

While this phase is pretty much of professional diplomacy to garner support and to create the largest alliance possible, it is thought that there are some military certainties to be listed.

For one, my assumption is that the Syrian regime barracks and assets in and around Aleppo, which are surrounded by the opposition, will not be targeted during the US led strike.

By contrast the assets in and around Damascus are considered pivotal to degrade the regime, mainly the command centers, the military runways, the air defenses including radars and anti-aerial assets, and the units in charge for missile launching , conventional or not.

What will be required is that the US led strike, which is going to project an overwhelming fire power, reduces collateral damage on civilians to zero. 

My assumption is also that the Iranian regime will partially fight back, by
emboldening Hezbollah and authorizing it to engage Israel remotely, perhaps by launching some missiles from Syrian territory. As we know that the strategic role of Hezbollah for Iran, is to open a direct front in Lebanon with Israel, whenever military heat will be applied on Iran for the nuclear file.

Iran in front of an international coalition attack on Syria will presumably follow a dual path; it will support Assad partially, by allowing some sort of Hezbollah’s remote engagement with Israel. But it will also focus on a stop loss strategy, not to lose Hezbollah in Lebanon and keep this card at hand for the future nuclear confrontation.

What emerges is that the trap of Hezbollah intervention in Syria is going to play against Iran during the strike on Syria.

Obviously if the Iranians will decide to play a hard hand and open the Lebanese front, this will be met by an Israeli ground invasion, and I don’t see the military advantage of this scenario for the Iranians. Yet the IRGC might well think that it can re-arm Hezbollah and create an environment similar to 2006 in the aftermath of the strike, although the Syrian supply route will not be available anymore. 

Rational thinking says that the Iranians in front of a strike on Assad, conducted by a major coalition, should stop the loss and save what it can in the Lebanese theater in terms of political influence and/or military. However there are several variables, also in terms of Iranian internal and regional politics and the strategic decision to go nuclear.

The US administration did wisely so far to manage the situation and it has to continue to do so, step by step, garner support and enlarge the coalition, and prepare the national and international public for a strike that looms, against perpetrators of crime against humanity.

“… A Damascene moon travels through my blood, Nightingales . . . and grain…  and domes from Damascus, jasmine begins its whiteness, and fragrances perfume themselves with her scent…” Nizar Qabbani , A Damascene Moon 

Thank You

 

 

 

 

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Orchid Diplomacy

January 6, 2011

White orchid (better)

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Investing on converging areas will reduce divergence and dissolve conflict”

At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, one would look behind and ahead, to evaluate and detect past and future trends.

It is well known that the Sudan referenda, Turkish general elections, Egyptian presidential elections, Chinese fifth generation rulers, Russian primary role beneath NATO EAST, US recovery and demographic growth, emerging countries active balancing dynamics, are all fundamental and interconnected facts in this geopolitical year 2011.

We already know that NATO is seeking a new dawn best coined to be NATO East and NATO West, as much as the G 20 is trying to manage global problems, where policy makers are shaping world events in a sage approach.

It is widely accepted that the best form to avoid the major cultural and intellectual conflict ( Empire vs Republic), is to nurture different economic hubs (US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey etc..) to lead the engine of growth and prosperity.

The US Modern Grand Strategy on this regard is projecting great confidence in ruling the transition from mono-polar governance to a multi-hub governance, the peaceful conduit in ensuring smooth international relations.

Pillars for the multi-hub strategy are full partnership with Russia, strategic cooperation with India, and encompassing economic concert with China.

While it is comforting that data being filtered from the US related to employment, services growth and investments is confirming a gathering pace for the recovery, it is understood that major hurdles remain.

International trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes, global security, food provisions, aid delivery, energy provision, currency oscillation, finance regulations, reformed governance, debt reduction and collective cooperation and growth are all areas to be positively developed.

The geopolitics in the land mass comprised between China and Portugal are being managed for the benefit of the humanity.

The US Modern Grand Strategy acting as ballerina already delivered a new government in Iraq and will by the end of the year enact a “Jirga Governance” in the Af-Pak Theater which witnessed recently dramatic events including assassinations.

Areas of volatility and incertitude remain expressed in African/ Asian poverty, in Middle East lack of Peace and in North Korean/ Iranian/ Venezuelan irresponsible behavior.

Balancing nations with innovative and creative role like, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba, Norway and Lebanon are in need of further assertiveness to share the conduct of the world affairs.

Following the US lawmakers bipartisan success to extend Tax cuts and to approve the START, it is a major desire to see soon in place regulation holidays for start-ups, a flat VAT introduction, empowerment of further immigration, definition of the plan to transform public waste into wealth and expansion of exports in goods and services.

Furthermore the hope is high that the plan defined to gradually reduce US national debt without affecting the recovery will be put on track.

What will affect mostly the land mass between China and Portugal in the coming decade are spinning focal points: Central Asia, The Korean Peninsula, the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, the Persian Gulf and the Nile nations.

Prominent and dominant issues in foreign affairs are the Iranian attempt to become nuclear, the instability in the Af-Pak Theater; the Israeli impotence to insert itself in its Arab entourage and the Russian modern evolution from an old competing power to a full partner with the WEST.

By the end of January a meeting will be held in Istanbul between the 3+3 and the Iranian Regime representatives to try to find a diplomatic solution for the nuclear issue.

It is well known that covert operations coupled to sanctions are affecting the Iranian effort to enrich uranium and to develop and deliver a nuclear device.

In truth the convincement of western chancelleries is that a diplomatic agreement remains the consequential way to move forward and broker a verifiable deal.

Germany with its special links to Russia and to Turkey can well take the initiative and propose a singular initiative versus Iran in coordination with the US that can build on the offer of the actual US president and on the deal announced some time ago by the Turkish/Brazilian Duo.

What is the nature of the deal that will be accepted by the Iranian regime is the question that analysts need to investigate.

The western interest is to ascertain that Iran at no time will have enough enriched uranium on its territory to produce a device, therefore Germany can broker an innovative solution where less enriched uranium on Iranian soil will be met with less sanctions, and the end game will be to end sanctions and verify that Iran has only civil nuclear energy.

Failure to reach this accord will plunge the area into the mud and the gray will be transformed into black, where strife will be highly likely and covert operations perhaps deteriorating into war will be the reign of the new Mossad Chief.

On another hand the stall in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians must be ended, and the Israeli elite should better comprehend that they are endangering the state and the republic by their obtuse idle standing and political deadlock.

Israel must sooner rather than later find a charismatic leader that will lead the nation from an apartheid and racist policy to an open and just policy.

Coming to the soon to be announced indictment of the STL, it is accepted at this stage that the entire process will have a legal “iter” and that unless Lebanon will embark on government reforms dedicated to the benefit of the citizenry a golden goose opportunity will be once again lost.

Here I must add that there is no major Syrian interest than to aid and support Lebanon to tutor acceptance, tolerance and diversity, so that it can benefit by extension from the ripple effects of the Cedar nation democratic stability.

In tandem to the German initiative with Iran, Mr Sarkozy during his upcoming visit to Washington can coordinate with the US a special invitation to Netanyahu and Assad to meet in Paris tete a’ tete with the ultimate goal to finalize normalcy and peace.

Both the French and German initiatives will be petals in the same translucent orchid diplomacy activated in tandem with US benediction. They will have a beneficial effect on Federal Palestine, Peaceful Iran, and Justice plus reforms in Lebanon. These will play also pivotal to synchronize the Chinese advance in Middle Eastern Affairs. Mr Hu Jinatao in his upcoming visit to washington will help us further if he will adopt positively these future trends . 

Lebanon needs an internal “ Commission for prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics, will follow up on the STL and will define and implement harmony and establish good governance.

Lebanon will become the pole for conventions specialized in Liquids, Banking, Aesthetics, Pharmaceutical, Fashion, Jewelry and inventions. In absence however of final agreements, two red lines will still always exist and persist and these are the security of the state of Israel from one side ,and from another side the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense to reach permanent and just peace with all its neighbors including Israel.

The “Casus Belli” means a major military invasion that will be expanding and multi-theater, overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Therefore no party has any interest to start any conflagration and this is well known by both Israel and Hizbullah.

Palmyra and Akkar will both become territories for alternative energy to provide wind electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

Charities will succeed to impede war and will navigate in between conflicting interests focusing on convergence.

The area will grow if it will adopt a Euro 2 currency concept, where Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iran and the GCC nations, confluent into the Unity of the Mediterranean will link with Russia and Europe into the Euro 2.

To end I freely mention a contributor of WordPress :

“ dear little soul you have great power and you are mysterious like the rarest flower”

Thank you,