The new cabinet of lebanon

January 3, 2014

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“With their mistake, I buy mistakes, from their disheartening words, I suffer;
Blood spurts out of my wound, how can I dry the water?” The Boat, Nimā Yushij , نیما یوشیج

In an objective analysis related to the achievements of the Ahmadinejad presidency,
we can easily realize that poverty raised in Iran as much as the national GNP dropped
Radicalism in Iran represented by the government of the Revolution Guards and the
populist Ahmadinejad can be referred to as an immense waste.
Looking also to the political ramifications of the late Iranian projection of power,
we can heartedly be touched by the huge waste, when we look at major errors committed by
the Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki. And by the Syrian Bashar Assad who miserably failed to advance
his nation into the road of modernity.
The crossroad of all this mismanagement is definitely best represented in the Lebanese Hezbollah
which altered the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 and the Israeli failure in 2006, into a waste of the gains,
by pointing the rifle north and extending the lines of supply from 80 km to 500 km.
Lebanon is threatened to become a hell of fire and theater of internal strife.
It is well known that accountability can’t be applied extensively in the Middle East,
because of arrogance and corruption, but can at least merit be visible and emerge?
Meritocracy is one of the guidelines and principles that must set the formation boundaries
of the new Lebanese cabinet. Two personalities are to be mentioned and these are Minister
Marwan Charbel and General Abbas Ibrahim of the General Security.
Whenever meritocracy is one guideline of the new cabinet, then the rest can be a focus
on the short duration, the number of ministers and the possible achievements.
It is known that the new cabinet will be in place until the election of the new president.
However, both issues are not intertwined formally, in the sense that a grand bargain will pave
the way for the cabinet.
Definitely not, and this is why the talk about a cabinet made out from the national dialogue committee
is not reasonable nor possible.
Here the chances of President Amin Gemayel, General Aoun, Mr Sleiman Franjieh and
Dr Geagea to be elected are very finite and slim if not impossible. Let them rest their
divisive efforts and cooperate for once.
So the equation in the new cabinet is the number of ministers and the more we have, the complexity
will be higher, therefore the perfect number is ten.
Considering 2 shiite , 2 sunni, and one druze, 2 maronite, one catholic, one orthodox and one Armenian.
The second equation is that the new cabinet will require paving the way for a second TAEF,
to adjust the harmony of the national cohesion and to impede any destruction of the Lebanese
coexistence.This is not because Taef 1 is wrong, but because we will insert few clauses to make it
acceptable by everyone.
As we know there are 4 major issues upcoming, the Geneva 2, the nuclear file of Iran,
the Israeli Palestinian talks, and the tribunal for Lebanon.
The proposal for the new cabinet of Lebanon can consist of two options,
one I already wrote about on this blog some time ago, made out of 10 ministers and formed
mainly by entrepreneurs, and the second who is more consequential is as follows:
Mr Tammam Salam PM ( economy, information, justice), Mr Adnan Kassar ( Finance minister, Culture),
General Ibrahim ( sanity, labour, foreign affairs, agriculture), General Charbel (Interior),
Mr Hussein Husseini (relations with the parliament, environment) ,
Mr Samir Moukbel ( deputy pm, defense, justice, communication ),
Mr Nazim Khoury ( tourism , public works), Mr Wael Abou Faour
( social affairs, education, sports), Mr Abraham Dedeyan ( Industry),
Mr Joe Takla ( energy, displaced).

This combination is very balanced and the second step will be to submit to the parliament the
program, and here I recommend that, to the declaration of Baabda a phrase shall be added.
Where the sanctuary of the state will be defended to consolidate coexistence and amalgam all the
Lebanese strata by any form, even through unconventional popular methods based on resistance
where the state reputes necessary.
This will lead us to the vote and chances are very strong that it will be voted, especially
if we consider that there is a precedent where the socialist party gave freedom to vote
during Mr Kamal Jumblat positioning in the early seventies.
With the calculated approach of the new cabinet ( articles debating the constitutional framework of
the formation abound, yet thinkers and writers fail to give the appropriate solution, for the emergency
Lebanon is witnessing) all players will be oriented to the new president election including the
Iranian excellent mediator Rouhani.
There are only two names with chances to be elected Lebanese president and these are
Mr Joseph Tarabey and General Jean Kahwaji.
My preference goes to Tarabey because Lebanon will need to go on Taef 2 (rotation between Pm and speaker and reinforcement for the president powers by calling on early general elections, plus the introduction of the referenda institution).
Taef 2 will have excellent effects on relations between Iran and KSA and it will mean the true
transfer of all files from the IRGC to the administration of president Rouhani.

“Nadda was by the water spring, and I asked her why she was not around, she looked at me with
those eyes, and she wanted to talk to me but she did not want to, o’Naddaa”
O Naddaa Lebanese song, by Sabah, lyrics Mansour Rahbani , Music Assi Rahbani

Thank You,


The Crossroads

October 27, 2010

Coat of arms of Lebanon

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Managing dynamics can easily become the modern challenge for policy makers

Following the last G20 meeting and the expected and upcoming NATO-Russian meeting, observers can easily affirm that the US Modern Grand Strategy based on a unique partnership with the EU and Russia and concerted relations with China is already bearing its fruits, meager and not.

Easing international relations and amplifying areas of cooperation in different sectors from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, reformed governance, is a requirement and a necessity in our contemporary evolving world.

Latest diffused data show some optimism in consumer sentiment in the US, and this is a welcomed indicator, although it can not affect the results of the mid term elections.

In truth a co-habitation will emerge and this will, contrary to perceptions, reinforce in my view the US market and world economy.

While analysts can agree with the need to rebalance international economies, not to heavily rely on one engine and market, it is widely accepted that in the coming decade recovery/growth can emerge mainly from the US and it will be a synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace efforts and to project soft/hard power.

From here balance in the US domestic politics will be a stabilizing factor albeit charged with verbal debate and political polemics.

How geopolitics between China and Portugal, will react is unknown.

Yet it is very rational to sum-up the US policy acting as a ballerina, to perform at best to avoid clamorous fall downs.

The US needs more than ever to recover its own economy, open to immigration, integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a Maliki/Allawi rotation in unity government in Iraq and help create a rotating unity “Jirga Governance” in Afghanistan.

But it needs also to act swiftly and decisively to change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Assuming that easing tensions in the Korean peninsula is an acquired achievement in the US foreign affairs thoughts, an innovative sunshine policy should be in the making. This has to be coupled to exerting global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon.

A wide and global effort directed to generate vision and to implement unison policies.

While efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, expectation is high that global trade will inevitably witness a growth and an increase in output and in consumption.

The requirement for a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. However this can be possible only if sources of energy are delivered to economies to generate international peace. The formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

My hope is that after Mid term, US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060 and reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks.

Furthermore define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. Invest in infrastructure, education and human resources.

Finally elaborate the rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver of recovery.

But my concern is if the global dynamics will enable above policies to be applied.

Risks are many starting from the necessity for Israel to ally Likud & labor with Kadima, halt settlements and exert a major flexibility in talks with the NPA, and for Syria to opt irreversibly for peace and chose the West as a sincere partner.

Furthermore both nations will need to reach out in direct talks. I imagine notables Moratinos, Blair, Mitchell, Suleiman, Lavrov and Sarkozy to stand in a joint conference with Assad where he will announce his unequivocal determination to become a peace maker in the ME and a consequent direct meeting Assad/Netanyahu to follow in Paris.

Failure to advance with concrete steps in the right direction will leave the citizenry subject to hazardous winds that might well alter the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, pronging conflict and instating strife and ultimately war.

Positive steps can be the evolution in the US parley/covert action with the IRGC, a breakthrough in peace talks with Federal Palestine, a successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, a Syrian decisive embrace to a new future, a Chinese financial role to pursue a dual track with the US enforcing world order.

In the Third Dynamic I explained about different factors governing world affairs today, and elaborated to a certain extent about the dangers, where I prospected the third velocity to obscure if not suppress the movement of the rest during a conflict and a devastating impact.

We all know that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, but perpetrators can not hope that crimes and skeletons will be simply put in the closet.

And here the indictment of the STL rivets a major importance because it represents the pendulum of intentions either for western culture or for fomenters of death.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon.

The regime in Syria must know that it has to take a decision and this is either for peace and with a sovereign Lebanon, or for war and against Lebanon.

The IRGC and Hizb can manipulate at will, yet they need to know that the modularity, velocity, flexibility, build up and power accumulated so far and still in process, will oblige them to surrender and to demise.

Objective analysts can forecast future projection scenarios, however there are irrevocable lines and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense.

Hope and hostility will always differ, but under no circumstance their interaction will change the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Af-pak Theater.

Although the STL indictment expected to be issued immediately after 25 November, is considered to be the trigger for a remarkable “Casus Belli”, it is also fairly objective to consider the maneuvers played by the perpetrators, to be laying in agony in the courtyard of determination and resolute attitude.

Those who will start the conflict in Lebanon will lose with certitude.

The military reaction and the pace of operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will be eradicated as a military extension, and the IRGC will be decimated and this will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major favorable impact for the decades to come.

The perimeter of the battle will be only in Lebanon, (as if it expands to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) its conduct (initiative and pace) will be unprecedented and the outcome will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse in oppressive regimes seeking only survival.

The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action will be set by the international community, for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

While no plan of battle will match the outcome, it is safe to consider that the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and at the last minute Syria will oblige the IRGC to desist before committing any strategic mistake.

The Syrian commander in chief will ponder a decision if to throw his nation into chaos or to accept the STL and make a just peace with Israel where lots of terrain near Palmyra, will produce enough energy for an ever increasing population in number and in consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power.

We are at a crossroads, the indictment will seek a peaceful dismantling of Hizb military assets, and whenever this will not occur, the day after, will resemble to an epic tragedy.

Diplomats, Charities and NGO’s will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance.

The only possible future for the area is to grow and to approve a common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt/Iran and the GCC nations, where failure to oversee this framework will plunge all of humanity into a bad formula.

The bad formula will substitute praise to good actions, by indifference to assassinations and to expanding totalitarian regimes devouring universal rights.

“Knights with colored flags will stand in front of hatred and ignorance, defending rights and tutoring disabled and poor”

Thank you,

The Third Dynamic

September 28, 2010

Satellite image of the Middle East

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Understanding dynamics is the tool to advance effectiveness and to evolve the impasse”

As extensively expressed in previous posts, the community of international analysts has a significant and consequential common ground. This is the Modern Grand Strategy, where the unique partnership between the US/EU/Russia and the US/EU/Sino and Asian/Sino concerting relations will decisively act as multiplier in eased international relations.

Areas for wide cooperation are endless starting from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, and reformed governance.

Easing international relations is based on a strong US market and economy from here recovery/growth is synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace. In truth within the area stretched between China and Portugal, the US acting as a ballerina, will need to perfect different objectives. Recover its own economy, open to immigration,  integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a government in Iraq and put in place a diplomatic “Jirga” in Afghanistan. Change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Furthermore in the intricacy of international relations the US needs to ease tensions in the Korean Peninsula by exerting patient restraint and activating a new version of sunshine policy, and ultimately advance harmony by directing global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon. A wide and global effort exerted to implement unison policies.

The focus started with a reset to the US economy, where a very important bailout was put in place to govern a recession from deteriorating further. Although the state macro economic intervention is debatable by some critics, it was an unavoidable measure. The international requirement to re-order the US market and finances, and re-project it towards a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. In fact, international peace can not persist, if US consumer spending, manufacturing and employment levels are not satisfactory.

It was a source of comfort that US lawmakers lately extended some Tax cuts, even if the recipe for growth still requires further intervention. Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduction of a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060, reduce the long assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks. Define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. To proceed ahead there is need also to invest in infrastructure, education and human resources. To end there is urgent requirement to elaborate a rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver for recovery.

Following the lead of the 3 movements identified in my last posting about the house of falling cards, I would add few others and indicate as such seven major dynamics governing world issues today.

The first is the US effort to recover, the second is the US parlor/covert actions with the IRGC, the third is the peace talks with Federal Palestine and the long build up undertaken by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fourth is the ever changing redline: enabling forces willing to alter the world order, such as Iranian influence, to test western resolve, the fifth is the Russian new geopolitical role, the sixth is the new Chinese financial global role and the seventh is the rest of the variables.

I already elaborated on the first dynamic, and there is some literature about the rest of these. However from an accurate outlook we can tell that unless all the dynamics will influence the third one rapidly, it is very likely that the third will precede the rest of the dynamics in its devastating impact.

In fact the modularity, velocity, flexibility and power accumulated so far by the third dynamic, can only impress any objective analyst versus the interconnection of the dynamics and their possible future projection scenarios.     

The speed of events and the geopolitical positioning is correlated to a Federal Palestine and a pacified Middle East, but most importantly to the security of the state of Israel, and to the integrity of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and to express a doctrine of defense.  

It is common sense to consider that the epical conflict between hope and hostilities will be reflected in the dynamics interaction.

It is a fact that the US geopolitical perspective exhausted its path by trying to install unity governments in Lebanon and Iraq, to partially contain Iran and by coupling diplomacy to counterinsurgency in the Af-pak Theater. Hence the only horizon ahead and the substitute to fatigue in US foreign affairs is a remarkable “Casus-Belli” gathering in front of our eyes. The STL indictment in November will be the trigger, even if the mass of the confrontation is already there since long time.     

Therefore the coming war in Lebanon is certitude. Operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.   

The battles to eradicate Hezbollah or to impede Israeli advance, will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major impact for the decades to come. The width of the battle (it can expand to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) and its conduct (initiative and pace) will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse. The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action, will be set by the international community, to advance all the dynamics unleashed by their sister third dynamic accelerated speed.    

My forecast is that no plan of battle will match the outcome on ground and that decision makers will endure an immense pressure not to commit any strategic mistake.

The highest stakes are for the Syrian nation as it should realize that reinserting itself with the west is its only salvation. As for the IRGC it has two options either to change its attitude now, or to succumb later to the totalitarian state demise.

In the day after, charities, NGO’s and others will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance. A common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt and the GCC nations will see the light and a new framework for Middle Eastern relations will be the anchor for a developed world trade.

Peace eventually will prevail.

“Knights with colored flags will fill the gap, bringing aid and comfort to disabled and poor”

Thank you,

Suspense and Intrigue

September 3, 2010

The approximate extent of Middle East Iranian ...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“The common task is to highlight the instincts for peace, rights and security”

It is a fact that the US modern Grand Strategy, consisting of peacefully partnering with Russia and concerting with China, is the correct avenue for an era of reasonable global governance.

The US – EU- Russian partnership, will contribute immensely to bring about an environment of cooperation between important powers, to increase geopolitical stability. As much as the expansion of US/Sino and Asian/Sino relations, will determine an improvement, in tutoring the overall interests involving different emerging Asian powers.

The list of necessary steps is long to ensure international trade and boost common defense. Starting from visa waivers, opening borders, securing energy, ensuring water & food and ending by international solidarity, WMD non-proliferation and UN reforms.

Meanwhile the US economy should be aided to recover, in drafts/steps taken by US lawmakers before the end of September, to avoid a missed opportunity  ahead of mid-term elections, while preparing a long term credible fiscal plan.

Extensions to Tax cuts, are pivotal for all sorts of income, while binding high incomes to support start ups. As there is need to increase government income, VAT can be introduced on certain items and a decrease should take place in the sphere of wrong spending e.g. (99 weeks for unemployment benefits). Instrumental for US growth, will be to support start ups in all forms, by extending funds and to condone regulations. Most effective will be to open for immigration and reach a target of 450 million inhabitants in 2050. Furthermore a rational plan will transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services, and invest in infrastructure.

From above one can signal that the US modern grand strategy, acting as ballerina, has a vision for world shared governance, global peace and the recovery of the US economy.

In the specifics of the geographic area stretching from China to Portugal, the US will integrate with Russia, concert with China, stabilize Iraq by establishing a national democratic government, entice a diplomatic Jirga with rational factions in Afghanistan, dissuade the Iranian guards from their nuclear pursue by containment first and coercion when required, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict, exert patient restraint in the Korean Peninsula and finally perfect global guidance in synchrony with balancing nations like Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada,  Japan and India.

Considering the steps that some powers will undertake, and the historic record of international relations, it is expected that opposition to the modern grand strategy (MGS) will become enforced and stronger. From here the evolution of the MGS will be subject to an “altalena” of movements and dynamics.

The reprisal of peace talks in the Middle East, is the example “par excellence” how hope and intransigence will be opposed in a frontal battle, while negotiators will be working on a framework, leading to a final agreement and a lasting peace. Although it is unknown how things will unfold, it is very clear that the losers from any deterioration will be the Peace Camp.

From the US prism, to partially contain Iran, national unity governments will be instated in Lebanon and Iraq. Syria will be enticed to decouple and change its course, and counterinsurgency together to diplomacy will be applied in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Furthermore military bases will surround Iran, coupled to a defensive/offensive build up and strong sanctions pressuring the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender/demise.

This approach is working, yet to reach out to both the Iranian mainstream and the Israeli security, time is running out for all players.

From one side, the IRGC is under unprecedented drain, from inside and outside Iran, and from another side, the US is exhausting the clock commodity. Extra time is needed for both powers and this is what covert action is trying to deliver. Both the IRGC and the US know that they could benefit better from a direct parlor, but the guards are prisoners of their own stands. Unfortunately they don’t want to compromise on joining the nuclear club, as their only objective is to save the regime and expand their power grip by exporting instability.  

So far the US maneuvered successfully and its efforts to manage the situation are yielding, however when things will become harder, disarming Iran from the Hormuz option, by erasing its naval capabilities, and the majority of its productive assets, by a strategic/tactical aerial prolonged bomabradment, will top the priorities.  

The Israelis from their side will do better to forget the “Masada Doctrine” threatening every now and then a solo attack. Variables are already many, and the need is for accurate strategists to shoulder responsibility. The Syrian nation must correct its political trajectory also, and play a positive role by acting as facilitator, by allying itself with the US in this delicate diplomatic phase where statesmanship is much on demand.

The upcoming period will be full of suspense and intrigue, but self control and the sapient moves of true leaders, will know precisely how and when to relent or to tighten the rope.

“Higher stakes impose exponential costs on strategic errors”

Thank you,

The cards of the enemy

August 26, 2010

Map of Israel, the Palestinian territories (We...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ In sharing, there is enticement to accept risks that others are willing to take ”

While the US –Russian and EU- Russian partnerships are moving in a bright allay, working on monetary and energy options that will further cement the existing relations, nothing prohibits Russia to act alone to increase geopolitical stability.

If it is true that visa waiver, borders opening, Ruble merger in the Euro, and further nuclear US/Russian control, are significant measures ahead, it is also true that boosting defense cooperation and increasing trade volumes are pivotal to reach unprecedented phases of international peace.

It is widely known that the US modern Grand Strategy already evolved to partner greatly with Russia and to extensively concert with China. This approach is very effective to reach an era of consulting and peaceful global governance.

Open areas for cooperation are still there like energy, water, food, natural calamities, WMD proliferation and UN reforms, but the basic work is set for US-EU-Russian integration and concerted acceptance with China to move forward and proceed.

How the US economy will recover remains the main question, and unless important steps are taken by lawmakers, this international requirement will not be addressed.

How can peace activists spur US consumer spending, manufacturing and new households is easy to realize if we look into many ideas being floated recently.

There is need to elaborate a major fiscal plan where tax cuts for middle/low income will be renewed/expanded for 3 years, but for high incomes only for one year while imposing on these, a condition to commit for at least two start ups in the coming 12 months. There is also need to introduce an incremental VAT on a limited basket of commercial items, furthermore to open the US for new immigration with a target to reach 450 million inhabitants in 2050.

 To complete the action a rational plan to transform public waste into wealth should be put in place and also a clever framework to reduce debt gradually with no harm to the efforts for recovery.

Rumors are spreading if the Fed will recur to another quantitative easing or if there will be need to another stimulus, and I say that the approval of a special unlimited package at this stage to fund startups initiated from August 2010 to August 2011 and reduce to zero their regulations will have a better impact on all sectors. These actions will sedate the volatility and make the fourth quarter a turning point.

Coupling Modern Grand Strategy to economic recovery is a main understanding for activists of peace while focusing on the area stretching from China to Portugal. The US modern Grand strategy acting as a ballerina, will recover the US economy, integrate with Russia, concert with China, secure energy routes, stabilize Iraq and facilitate the establishment of a democratic government after the general elections, entice a diplomatic solution with rational factions in Afghanistan for the benefit of the civil society, dissuade the Iranian guards from their nuclear pursue, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and widen international cooperation.

However in doing so, we need also to consider the steps taken by other powers, simply because the geopolitical mosaic is widely interconnected. Fear should not be a factor impeding China from rising peacefully in its region, or Russia to perfect a consortium with Iran. A growing responsibility of both is a gain for world citizenry in the same way as the peace role of the US is an added value in Eurasia.

Looking into the upcoming Gala in Washington on September 1st, observers are hoping for a deal in the making between Palestinians and Israelis. Excellent would be to agree by mid September on a Federal Palestine. The new demilitarized state can be declared temporarily in the West Bank (98 % of 1967) as a first state, in January 2011 with its temporary capital Ram Allah.

Outstanding issues of additional states, final borders, viability, Jerusalem and refugees will be finalized by 2013. Opposition to a likely agreement will be strong and will rise from a pervasive array of sort; we can expect veiled threats of instability to continue striking in Iraq and Afghanistan for now, yet there is no escape for both contenders the NPA and Israel than to find a common ground.  Failure is a nightmare. 

PR exercises practiced from one side by Hezbollah in frequent TV shows trying to subject the Lebanese STL to threats or quid pro quo’s and from pro- Israel writers resorting to Atlantic interviews to legitimize a non recommended Israeli attack on Iranian plants will ultimately fail in their objectives.

As we know the last tripartite summit in Lebanon, the French designation of a peace envoy, and the clashes this week in Burj Abi Haidar do confirm my assessment that the perimeter of the theater of regional confrontation is limited to Lebanon to enable a diplomatic/political breakthrough in world affairs.

My view suggested to put in place surrounding bases to Iran, a defensive/offensive build up coupled to strong sanctions leading the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender. It seems that the IRGC is willing to start negotiations, but to reach out to the Iranian mainstream we need to strengthen the stick and cut Hezbollah tentacles in Lebanon. This requirement will reveal very precious in the negotiations, as the IRGC will have lost a negative card Hezb but gained a positive one the Consortium with Russia.

Basically we are changing the cards in hand of the counterpart and this will enable the US to come clean at the end of September/October having two agreements in place one for Palestine and one with Iran.

From above, strategic terms impose that Hizb will be deprived from its military assets, to reach global peace and power equilibrium. Therefore the international consensus for the Casus Belli (Federal Palestine, security of the state of Israel, Iranian negotiations and Peace in the Middle East) is well in place and advancing. An oyster policy will oblige Hizb to disarm or else to be reduced to a relic by an overwhelming, disproportionate, fast and irreversible action that will promote peace successfully.

Being in the midst of the campaign to disarm Hizb, I can safely say that it is inevitable for ISraeli armors to roll by September/October into Lebanon. Hizb has two choices, to lose power and reposition itself, or to fight on multiple fronts and lose the totality of its military assets. I was expecting the STL to announce its indictment on September the second to exert the most pressure, yet the interview of Bellemare on Now Lebanon suggests a different scenario. Therefore I reconsider and tend to put the indictment to be simultaneous to the upcoming conflagration.

Hizb loss in Lebanon will favor a rapprochement between all players on the China/Portugal mainland/surface. “Pax Riduttiva” will prevail.

The Syrian army, the LAF and Hamas would best stay idle or they will bear dire , very dire consequences.

Hizb loss and the Russian offer will shuffle the cards in hand of the IRGC and consign to US negotiators the key to a pragmatic deal. The only alternative to the pragmatic deal will be a US strategic/tactical bombardment by the end of November. Failure of the US to act swiflty on the Iranian nuclear file, will inevitably introduce a “Masada Doctrine”, where Israel will act alone, in a different perspective, where cards are not required .   

The Syrian nation following the new direction will benefit largely as much as a new Lebanon will benefit from the monopoly of coercion exerted only by a modern LAF, responding to an enlightened doctrine of defense. Reforms of both states will remain a major issue to tackle and the installment of a democratic stability will be the main objective of the elites.

The IRGC needs to put the ball in the nearest hole, thus, limit damage and surrender.

“A great advantage is to know the cards of the enemy, a luxury is to give the enemy the cards in hand”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour