The Deal – Vision

November 11, 2013

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva ...

English: Coat of arms of the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) Français : Armoiries du canton de Genève (Suisse) Deutsch: Wappen des Kantons Genf (Schweiz) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“I lost the love of heaven above, I spurned the lust of earth below, ………. In every language upon earth, on every shore, o’er every sea, …. and kept my spirit with the free.” A Vision by John Clare

It is a source of comfort to learn that the desire to reach an agreement between the contenders in Geneva will continue in next rounds of talks. As we know these talks date since many years, with ups and downs and it is high time now, to express a vision with principles and guidelines under which umbrella the framework of the phased agreements will be reached.

The vision is very simple, where it stands for acceptance, solidarity and respect. Each nation in the Middle East will commit to accept and recognize fully the other nations, including Israel, Palestine and Iran. Each nation will commit to express a state policy based on solidarity and sharing where a system of regional security will be emerging and finally each nation will respect the peaceful desire of growth within an open borders strategy of ideas and goods free of WMD threats.

Aligning negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran will enable all players to express a phased route projecting the populations of the entire area into an era of peace.

I envisage three phases stretching on a time frame of 3 years.

The first phase, will define nuclear interim agreement one in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 2 for the Syrian Crisis, it will resolve the Lebanese standoff and the Iraqi instability.

The second phase, will define nuclear interim agreement two in Geneva, it will implement Geneva 3 for the Syrian Crisis, and it will define the final status in the Israeli / Palestinian Conflict.

The third and final phase, will define the nuclear agreement in Geneva, it will convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and it will finalize talks for regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.

In the first phase, the nuclear interim agreement ONE in Geneva to be implemented by Dec 25 can consist of the immediate verifiable shutdown of Iran’s Arak heavy-water reactor in exchange for the release of 25 billion USD of Iranian accounts. On a separate track Geneva 2 will be called to convene by January 20 where humanitarian corridors, release of prisoners and a cessation of hostilities will be announced, the Syrian opposition will be represented by the new prime minister and a large and inclusive delegation. On another separate track a Lebanese neutral cabinet composed by 10 independents will be formed and will supervise the new electoral law, and the presidential election of Mr. Jean Kahwaji to proceed with the path of giving the Lebanese army the necessary time to be in charge of the cedar nation. Lebanese general elections will take place in September 2014. On another track an Iraqi sharing system of governance will be defined in a national conference Baghdad 1 where participation in the decision making will be open to all communities.

In the second phase, the nuclear interim agreement TWO in Geneva, will consist of the unilateral declaration by the Iranian nuclear agency that a cap of 80 KG will be applied on the quantity of 20 % enriched Uranium held on Iranian territory at any given time, measures will be put in place by the IAEA to verify by March 20. International Powers will release all held Iranian Bank accounts and ease sanctions on precious metals. On a separate track Geneva 3 will be called to convene within April 20 and a political transition, expressed by a national cabinet will be declared where there will be no space for the Assad clan. The final status of talks to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian conflict will take shape by August 2014 and a map with temporary borders will be accepted, the viable and sovereign nation of Palestine will be born. Jerusalem will have an international status under common and rotating administration. The state of Israel will have all kind of assurances that the citizens of Israel and the Jewry worldwide will be in amenity in a homeland.

In the third and final phase, the nuclear agreement in Geneva finalized by September 30, will consist of the Iranian Petroleum Agency announcing its desire to coordinate a plan of investment for gas exploitation in tandem with an international private consortium.  International powers will release all sanctions and will support the full membership of Iran in the WTO. On a separate track Iran and the US will be the sponsors to convene a conference on establishing a zone free of WMD in the region and this will be coupled by talks on enhancing regional security and common projects for growth and exploitation.  The main purpose will be to guarantee the security of Israel, the support of growth in Palestine, the diplomatic projection of Iran and its acquisition of a middle power status. Gulf Countries will act as facilitators and true believers in peace.

    “ I have not walked on common ground, Nor drunk of earthly streams; ……. Life is a race fore-run; Look in his face a little while, and life and death are one.” Vision by Marjorie Pickthall

     Thank You,

 

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At Large

September 23, 2013

OpenStreetMap Logo

OpenStreetMap Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good Day,

 

Following the results of the German elections, a cabinet sponsored by a grand coalition can be envisaged, where the winning party will form the cabinet together to Social Democrats and the Greens.

 

Two of Europe’s biggest industries will be having a similar government (Italy and Germany) working on compromise to define a better policy for progress.

 

In Italy the cabinet will need to put through a policy to target the public debt and unemployment, or else a new election will be looming.

 

While in Germany the compromise will be, to achieve a smart energy policy coupled to an infrastructure investment, and a minimum wage adjustment that will not negatively influence exports.

 

Compromise is the essence of government, as multiple interests often collide and impede the civil society to act in dynamics that represent only one actor. The role of politicians is to mediate and to find solutions, and whenever they fail, as in Lebanon presently the interests of the collectivity will be endangered.

 

The hope for Lebanon in light of the Iranian charm offensive is to form a cabinet soon that will tackle major issues such as; neutral stance, dilution of the bifurcate divergence into a colorful and multifaceted cooperation, economic recovery, social crisis, security environment, strategic depth, constitutional reforms, start ups and job creation.

 

Definitely the challenge for the US in view of the looming deadline of the new fiscal year is to find a line of balance, where a reasonable raise of the public debt will be approved, together to an adjustment in expenditure in the federal budget that will not nullify food stamps.

 

It goes without saying that the market already accepted lady vice chairman, as a successor to Mr. Bernanke, where a predictable and gradual taper will be applied starting October, in an attentive effort to gather a pace between national interests “at large” and international markets performance.

 

As already described in a previous contribute, the national interests in our modern era are better defined “at large”, rather than in a thin prism of local and condensed view. The collectivity belonging to any nation is better served, whenever a wise and methodical process of understanding, is applied to geography, history, economics and to the international dynamics.

 

Analysts are elaborating about the last Russian diplomatic approach to the Syrian CW, the effective resolution of this file peacefully and the ramification of a political solution. It is reasonable to expect inspectors to arrive in Syria by the end of October, and that the process of political negotiation will begin in January, based on the principle of a new Syrian national accord that will pave the way for a transitional government.

 

The upcoming three months might reveal pivotal for the life line extended by the Iranian Republican Guards Council & the Supreme Leader, to the new Iranian president. Observers are considering that Mr. Rouhani doesn’t have much time ahead and that his space to maneuver is limited. I tend to differ on this, simply because the new president is the only asset in place for the option of a negotiated approach, that will avoid the climate of confrontation, be it through sanctions or a military engagement.

 

Hence I consider the Iranian president there to stay for long inn diplomacy and therefore the investment on shaking hands with him is not sufficient. The US approach should be, as a hosting player to the UN forum, to deliver much honor and welcoming.

 

I consider that in this particular momentum in international relations there are no two nations on earth that can benefit more from a rapprochement more than Iran and the US.

 

The principle to be enunciated is to accept the peaceful nuclear research in Iran as per international protocols, while ensuring the security of the state of Israel unconditionally, to permit this state to eliminate its own WMD, once peace treaties are in place accepting Israel as a final nation.

 

There is a concrete possibility that the decade 2014-2024 will be of enormous enhancement for the living conditions in the ME, where negotiations will succeed to deliver.

 

Thank you,