Greetings and Good Day,
“For some, it is unclear how an episode in a Syrian city, can influence the deployment of a floating base in the Persian Gulf! For others the Russian future is less than an enigma and more than a question mark “
As we are entering a very delicate phase in modern history, observers might be looking into indicators based on a time line and a convergence of signs that will generate a trend.
It is no secret that the area stretching from the greater Middle East to the South Eastern Asian continent rivets a primordial importance and will constitute an enormous challenge for chancelleries around the world to express power and to exert the game of the nations.
To start effectively I will introduce the indicator called Syrian Bimonthly Check (SBC). This indicator will play a major role in determining the direction of events in global affairs in the coming period.
Bimonthly represents two months and therefore we are talking about the SBC 1 which is February /March 2012. How things will unfold in Syria during the coming two months is very important to understand how the entire ME saga will move forward.
In truth a carefully planned and encompassing “FSA” action against the falling house of Assad, will be pivotal to indicate to all players how they need to calibrate their moves on the chess board.
I presume that until Putin will go on a strategic rehab , the Russian stand will persevere in a useless defense of Assad, trying to mitigate apparent control of a destiny of demise.
Russian interests will be best tutored if they rapidly converge with the US interests to create a transition that will put in place reforms and free general elections in Syria.
A diplomatic agreed solution in Syria will unavoidably help to defuse tension in the Gulf and guarantee the Russian interests also in Iran. Presently Moscow is playing a losing game, defending all theaters, without sacrificing anything, a strategic suicide.
Russian priorities must be set and I am keen to consider that Putin has lost some shape in terms of geopolitical freshness. Russia’s future is to develop its demography, to open to Europe and to secure the energy routes and development worldwide.
This leads us to Iran and to the Majlis election in March, where the new majority can declare a self imposed moratorium on nuclear research and reverse the tide of international tension for at least one year, paving the way for the Iranian presidential election to take place with a calm atmosphere in 2013.
Much depends on internal Iranian politics and the power distribution between different poles holding a fragmented and often contradictory decision making.
Obviously Israel will not only watch, but it will proceed vividly with the covert aspect to delay the research and to facilitate Mr. Profile, while preparing for the military option against Iran under two scenarios either solo or in conjunction to an alliance.
Considering a given that Lebanon will maintain its neutrality and isolate itself from the growing effects of the Syrian theater, and this is for different circumstances.
The low profile tactics played by Hezbollah and the will of all leaders to exit the stalemate without significant losses, will enable Lebanon to walk the mine field intact.
Hamas rotation towards moderate monarchies and its reach to the NPA will immensely support, a negotiated settlement for the state of Palestine living side by side with Israel, as the only desirable solution.
The question is how will the Free Syrian Army war planners act and operate to benefit the most from the SBC 1? Assuming February will weaken further the Assad clan, how we can develop synergy in March? Which tools will reactivate and reassert the Syrian popular movement demands?
If it is true that on the long run, the vision is clear that Iran should halt or transfer enrichment and divert its resources to verifiable civil purposes, and to define a grand bargain with the US, it is also true that on the short run we need to augment the cost for Iran to keep the current path, both by increasing denting sanctions and by a military build-up.
Red lines should be clear, miscalculation avoided, and Israel discouraged to act solo to avoid a Masada replica.
We will also need to keep scrutiny on Iranian internal politics and dose the Syrian demise at a monitored slow motion until the end of SBC 2.
For the time being the agony of Bashar is playing well into the interests of all parties until a defined agreement is developed.
From here the prediction is that the International and global power that will succeed to manipulate best the Syrian theater until the end of May, will manage best the geopolitical outcome in the fall.
“ Udite , udite, la folla acclama e gli interessi degli stati e dei popoli sono sulla bilancia “
- Syrian troops seize eastern Damascus suburbs after two days of bloodshed (telegraph.co.uk)
- The Syrian military has re-taken the eastern suburbs of Damascus from the rebel army, Reuters reports. (shortformblog.tumblr.com)
- Syria:16 Syrian troops killed + Related Articles (laaska.wordpress.com)
- Syrian Troops Battle Anti-Assad Rebels in Suburbs of Damascus – BusinessWeek (businessweek.com)
- Assad Forces Retake Damascus Suburbs – RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty (rferl.org)
- UN considers resolution amid reports of heavy fighting in Syria – CNN (edition.cnn.com)
- Pro-government hactivists deface Al Jazeera coverage of Syrian violence (arstechnica.com)
- The Syrian puzzle – Khaleej Times (khaleejtimes.com)
- Syrian army returns to Damascus suburbs – BBC News (bbc.co.uk)
- Russia sticks with Syria’s Assad (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Russia sticks with Syria’s Assad – The Seattle Times (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- ‘Urban war’ rages on edge of Syrian capital (worldnews.msnbc.msn.com)
- Syrian troops storm areas near capital of Damascus (thehindu.com)