Orbi Parliament

February 7, 2011

The Lebanese Parliament in downtown Beirut. Th...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Transition in the making, necessitates a relevant self control and a major vision to avoid conflict”

As mentioned in my earlier “Orchid Diplomacy” , time is always an opportunity to evaluate and detect trends. Spinning issues were identified, some with known outcome, others with ongoing evolution.

The Sudan referenda ended with great hopes for a two states entity, while Turkish general elections are still to be hold, in presence of a growing role of Istanbul, yet to become global.

Egyptian desire for reforms is in process, but expectation is that a general election will be held perhaps as early as June and a constitutional amendment in the making to be implemented.

If it is true that the Chinese rulers are concentrated on an easy succession to the fifth generation, in a policy concentrated on defense, energy provision & economic progress, Yuan alternated assertiveness and strong outgoing tourism, it is also true that Russian primary role beneath NATO EAST is becoming more and more pivotal, to tutor freedom inside and outside the nation and its near abroad.

Comforting is the US recovery even if still to be coupled with a VAT taxation and demographic growth, together to the German and/or emerging countries active balancing dynamics, all fundamental in this current geopolitical year.

It is spread knowledge that NATO will develop further and extend a bi-directional security NATO East and NATO West, as much as the G-20 or G-2 will try to exert influence and guidance in world affairs to shape events for a peaceful dynamic.

While almost every analyst agrees that nurturing multiple economic hubs (US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, etc…) will not only lead to growth but also to a global system of control and effectiveness, the US Modern Grand Strategy is already leading the transition from mono-polar governance to a multi-hub governance.

An innovative and consequential approach in foreign affairs, portended to secure the peaceful conduit for soft international relations.

US Full partnership with Russia, Strategic cooperation with India, Encompassing economic concert with China and Empowerment of emerging powers, are fundamental basics for lasting world equilibrium.

The latest economic data is confirming the US recovery, the German growth and that some wise adjustments are still to be put in place to keep the positive pace gathering. There is need to focus on international trade, education exchange, immigration fluxes, global security, food provisions, aid delivery, energy routes, currency fluctuations, finance regulations, reformed governance, debt reduction and collective cooperation.

Above brings us inevitably to the geopolitics of the area comprised between China and Portugal considered to be the most critical for the cause of peace and humanity.

Acting as ballerina the US already co-brokered a new government in Iraq, it is swiftly generating momentum for a “Jirga Governance” in the Af-Pak Theater, and pro-acting a responsible transition in the Egyptian Nile. Definitely there are still many areas of volatility and incertitude in African/ Asian poor continents, in the Middle East , the Persian/ Arab Peninsula, The Korean Theater and the South American continent, but this is where geopolitics will incisively deal progressively with events.

The multi-hub governance active through balancing nations Brazil, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway and Lebanon will further contribute in the design of freedom expansion and peaceful world governance.

It is remarkable the initiative for the Startup day at the White House, where interaction with a new business community, will lead to define future steps, to ease regulation, empower immigration, gradually end public waste, reduce debt, amplify employment and constantly expand exports in goods and services.

Now that the Iranian attempt to become nuclear was covertly postponed, the opportunity is wide for peace talks in the Levant to advance, whenever an Israeli statesman will emerge.

My conviction is that Israel is in dire need for a modern leader, pragmatic, that will lead the occupying nation from an apartheid and racist policy to an open and just policy.

As mentioned in “Orchid Diplomacy”, there is still maneuver for Germany to develop a special initiative versus Iran in coordination with the US, and for France to facilitate negotiations between Israelis, the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Lebanese.

Coming to the resignation of Lebanese ministers, the deposited indictment of the STL, and the nominee of a new prime minister, one needs to decide if to stay at the margin or to lower the chances for a conflagration.

Being the major Syrian interest to aid and support Lebanon to tutor acceptance, tolerance and diversity by exerting democratic stability, I sense the upcoming governing formula to be 10- 10-10. However before this can be applied it is needed that some parliamentarians including the nominated PM and the PSP, declare to be under the umbrella of the president of the republic, to safeguard somehow the cheated and displeased citizenry. Only then can a cabinet be formed, without altering the strategic equilibrium and by setting the premises for a peaceful transition for reforms.

The French and German initiatives in tandem with US benediction will have a beneficial effect on peace in the ME, and the future of the relations with Iran. These will obviously create an environment for transition, justice, stability and reforms in Lebanon.

Although my convincement is that Lebanon needs an internal “ Commission for prosperity and truth “ that will look into the crucial topics, follow up on the STL and define harmony to establish good governance, the requirement is for the different communities to meet and agree on the interests of the Lebanese collectivity.

Lebanon’s future is to become a specialized pole for conventions and a net energy exporter.

Lack of implementation of the above vision will maintain in place two red lines, the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty and freedom of the Lebanese state.

Any one sided government in Lebanon will trigger a “Casus Belli” as it will alter the strategic equilibrium, and this means a major military invasion that will be expanding and multi-theater, overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

From here Hezbullah, Syria and Iran are put on notice.

The major threat is the vengeance desire and the arrivism and filibuster spirit hidden in the political acts of Hezbullah, and this must be contained for the best interest of Lebanon and the area. Power and influence should walk hand in hand with winning arguments not with plagiarism.

Palmyra and Akkar can become territories for alternative energy to provide wind electricity and water to an ever increasing population and consumer spending, only if the words of the Syrian ruler will be followed by deeds, and the US ambassador to Damascus should make every effort to make this clear. May Assad listen to avoid a cataclysm.

Dear Reader, Peace will prevail as it will be defended by a formidable armada and by an extraordinary display of power, diplomacy and intelligence.

Sage activists will impede war and will navigate between conflicting areas focusing on converging interests.

The French/ German entente will increase the role of the Euro 1 to evolve into a Euro 2, and even if many critics do not see a political union in Europe, this model can be enlarged to include many Mediterranean and Asian nations.

I imagine an “Orbi” parliament in Beirut where representatives of the variety of nations will gather steam and talk about life.

The reform of the UN can be activated by a De Facto world Parliament.

“Where conversation and opinions flourish, confrontation will regress” Thank you,


The Crossroads

October 27, 2010

Coat of arms of Lebanon

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Managing dynamics can easily become the modern challenge for policy makers

Following the last G20 meeting and the expected and upcoming NATO-Russian meeting, observers can easily affirm that the US Modern Grand Strategy based on a unique partnership with the EU and Russia and concerted relations with China is already bearing its fruits, meager and not.

Easing international relations and amplifying areas of cooperation in different sectors from trade, education, immigration, security and extending to food, aid, energy, currency, finance, reformed governance, is a requirement and a necessity in our contemporary evolving world.

Latest diffused data show some optimism in consumer sentiment in the US, and this is a welcomed indicator, although it can not affect the results of the mid term elections.

In truth a co-habitation will emerge and this will, contrary to perceptions, reinforce in my view the US market and world economy.

While analysts can agree with the need to rebalance international economies, not to heavily rely on one engine and market, it is widely accepted that in the coming decade recovery/growth can emerge mainly from the US and it will be a synonymous to acquiring a major boost for peace efforts and to project soft/hard power.

From here balance in the US domestic politics will be a stabilizing factor albeit charged with verbal debate and political polemics.

How geopolitics between China and Portugal, will react is unknown.

Yet it is very rational to sum-up the US policy acting as a ballerina, to perform at best to avoid clamorous fall downs.

The US needs more than ever to recover its own economy, open to immigration, integrate with Russia, entice China to concert, secure energy routes, establish a Maliki/Allawi rotation in unity government in Iraq and help create a rotating unity “Jirga Governance” in Afghanistan.

But it needs also to act swiftly and decisively to change the attitude of the Iranian guards, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and project international cooperation. Assuming that easing tensions in the Korean peninsula is an acquired achievement in the US foreign affairs thoughts, an innovative sunshine policy should be in the making. This has to be coupled to exerting global guidance in synchrony to balancing nations, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Canada, Japan, India, Turkey, Cuba and Lebanon.

A wide and global effort directed to generate vision and to implement unison policies.

While efforts in the coming decade will focus on rebalancing international economies and currencies, expectation is high that global trade will inevitably witness a growth and an increase in output and in consumption.

The requirement for a healthy growth is a task of every responsible citizen. However this can be possible only if sources of energy are delivered to economies to generate international peace. The formula is to have both US and Chinese consumer spending; manufacturing and employment at satisfactory levels.

My hope is that after Mid term, US lawmakers will agree on the recipe for growth and extend Tax and regulation holidays for start-ups, introduce a 4 % flat VAT on all items under USD 100, allow further immigration to reach 450 million inhabitants by 2050/2060 and reduce the long term assistance to unemployment up to a maximum of 20 weeks.

Furthermore define a plan to transform public waste into wealth, expand exports in goods and services. Invest in infrastructure, education and human resources.

Finally elaborate the rational plan to reduce debt gradually, without affecting the maneuver of recovery.

But my concern is if the global dynamics will enable above policies to be applied.

Risks are many starting from the necessity for Israel to ally Likud & labor with Kadima, halt settlements and exert a major flexibility in talks with the NPA, and for Syria to opt irreversibly for peace and chose the West as a sincere partner.

Furthermore both nations will need to reach out in direct talks. I imagine notables Moratinos, Blair, Mitchell, Suleiman, Lavrov and Sarkozy to stand in a joint conference with Assad where he will announce his unequivocal determination to become a peace maker in the ME and a consequent direct meeting Assad/Netanyahu to follow in Paris.

Failure to advance with concrete steps in the right direction will leave the citizenry subject to hazardous winds that might well alter the stability and complicate further the geopolitical environment, pronging conflict and instating strife and ultimately war.

Positive steps can be the evolution in the US parley/covert action with the IRGC, a breakthrough in peace talks with Federal Palestine, a successful international effort to achieve justice in Lebanon, a Syrian decisive embrace to a new future, a Chinese financial role to pursue a dual track with the US enforcing world order.

In the Third Dynamic I explained about different factors governing world affairs today, and elaborated to a certain extent about the dangers, where I prospected the third velocity to obscure if not suppress the movement of the rest during a conflict and a devastating impact.

We all know that no party has any interest to start a conflagration, but perpetrators can not hope that crimes and skeletons will be simply put in the closet.

And here the indictment of the STL rivets a major importance because it represents the pendulum of intentions either for western culture or for fomenters of death.

The solution is not to threaten Lebanon.

The regime in Syria must know that it has to take a decision and this is either for peace and with a sovereign Lebanon, or for war and against Lebanon.

The IRGC and Hizb can manipulate at will, yet they need to know that the modularity, velocity, flexibility, build up and power accumulated so far and still in process, will oblige them to surrender and to demise.

Objective analysts can forecast future projection scenarios, however there are irrevocable lines and these are the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty, democracy and independence of the Lebanese state and its capability to exert a monopoly of coercion and activate a doctrine of defense.

Hope and hostility will always differ, but under no circumstance their interaction will change the US geopolitical perspective to impede Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons and to exert diplomatic restraint in the Af-pak Theater.

Although the STL indictment expected to be issued immediately after 25 November, is considered to be the trigger for a remarkable “Casus Belli”, it is also fairly objective to consider the maneuvers played by the perpetrators, to be laying in agony in the courtyard of determination and resolute attitude.

Those who will start the conflict in Lebanon will lose with certitude.

The military reaction and the pace of operations are expected to be overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, fast, very powerful, incisive, unrelenting and irreversible.

Hezbollah will be eradicated as a military extension, and the IRGC will be decimated and this will portray on the China/Portugal mainland/landmass a major favorable impact for the decades to come.

The perimeter of the battle will be only in Lebanon, (as if it expands to Syrian territory and/or to a strategic/tactical bombardment of Iran) its conduct (initiative and pace) will be unprecedented and the outcome will definitely cause the end of the actual impasse in oppressive regimes seeking only survival.

The rules of engagement and the extension/linearity/modeling of action will be set by the international community, for the benefit of freedom, democracy and liberal markets and thoughts.

While no plan of battle will match the outcome, it is safe to consider that the alliance between the West/Israel/Gulf Countries/Lebanon and at the last minute Syria will oblige the IRGC to desist before committing any strategic mistake.

The Syrian commander in chief will ponder a decision if to throw his nation into chaos or to accept the STL and make a just peace with Israel where lots of terrain near Palmyra, will produce enough energy for an ever increasing population in number and in consumer spending.

Peace will prevail defended by a formidable armada and an extraordinary display of power.

We are at a crossroads, the indictment will seek a peaceful dismantling of Hizb military assets, and whenever this will not occur, the day after, will resemble to an epic tragedy.

Diplomats, Charities and NGO’s will have a major role in rebuilding the damages and in expressing sound governance.

The only possible future for the area is to grow and to approve a common currency between Lebanon/Jordan/Iraq/Syria/Turkey/Israel/Egypt/Iran and the GCC nations, where failure to oversee this framework will plunge all of humanity into a bad formula.

The bad formula will substitute praise to good actions, by indifference to assassinations and to expanding totalitarian regimes devouring universal rights.

“Knights with colored flags will stand in front of hatred and ignorance, defending rights and tutoring disabled and poor”

Thank you,

The cards of the enemy

August 26, 2010

Map of Israel, the Palestinian territories (We...

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Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“ In sharing, there is enticement to accept risks that others are willing to take ”

While the US –Russian and EU- Russian partnerships are moving in a bright allay, working on monetary and energy options that will further cement the existing relations, nothing prohibits Russia to act alone to increase geopolitical stability.

If it is true that visa waiver, borders opening, Ruble merger in the Euro, and further nuclear US/Russian control, are significant measures ahead, it is also true that boosting defense cooperation and increasing trade volumes are pivotal to reach unprecedented phases of international peace.

It is widely known that the US modern Grand Strategy already evolved to partner greatly with Russia and to extensively concert with China. This approach is very effective to reach an era of consulting and peaceful global governance.

Open areas for cooperation are still there like energy, water, food, natural calamities, WMD proliferation and UN reforms, but the basic work is set for US-EU-Russian integration and concerted acceptance with China to move forward and proceed.

How the US economy will recover remains the main question, and unless important steps are taken by lawmakers, this international requirement will not be addressed.

How can peace activists spur US consumer spending, manufacturing and new households is easy to realize if we look into many ideas being floated recently.

There is need to elaborate a major fiscal plan where tax cuts for middle/low income will be renewed/expanded for 3 years, but for high incomes only for one year while imposing on these, a condition to commit for at least two start ups in the coming 12 months. There is also need to introduce an incremental VAT on a limited basket of commercial items, furthermore to open the US for new immigration with a target to reach 450 million inhabitants in 2050.

 To complete the action a rational plan to transform public waste into wealth should be put in place and also a clever framework to reduce debt gradually with no harm to the efforts for recovery.

Rumors are spreading if the Fed will recur to another quantitative easing or if there will be need to another stimulus, and I say that the approval of a special unlimited package at this stage to fund startups initiated from August 2010 to August 2011 and reduce to zero their regulations will have a better impact on all sectors. These actions will sedate the volatility and make the fourth quarter a turning point.

Coupling Modern Grand Strategy to economic recovery is a main understanding for activists of peace while focusing on the area stretching from China to Portugal. The US modern Grand strategy acting as a ballerina, will recover the US economy, integrate with Russia, concert with China, secure energy routes, stabilize Iraq and facilitate the establishment of a democratic government after the general elections, entice a diplomatic solution with rational factions in Afghanistan for the benefit of the civil society, dissuade the Iranian guards from their nuclear pursue, resolve the Israeli Arab conflict and widen international cooperation.

However in doing so, we need also to consider the steps taken by other powers, simply because the geopolitical mosaic is widely interconnected. Fear should not be a factor impeding China from rising peacefully in its region, or Russia to perfect a consortium with Iran. A growing responsibility of both is a gain for world citizenry in the same way as the peace role of the US is an added value in Eurasia.

Looking into the upcoming Gala in Washington on September 1st, observers are hoping for a deal in the making between Palestinians and Israelis. Excellent would be to agree by mid September on a Federal Palestine. The new demilitarized state can be declared temporarily in the West Bank (98 % of 1967) as a first state, in January 2011 with its temporary capital Ram Allah.

Outstanding issues of additional states, final borders, viability, Jerusalem and refugees will be finalized by 2013. Opposition to a likely agreement will be strong and will rise from a pervasive array of sort; we can expect veiled threats of instability to continue striking in Iraq and Afghanistan for now, yet there is no escape for both contenders the NPA and Israel than to find a common ground.  Failure is a nightmare. 

PR exercises practiced from one side by Hezbollah in frequent TV shows trying to subject the Lebanese STL to threats or quid pro quo’s and from pro- Israel writers resorting to Atlantic interviews to legitimize a non recommended Israeli attack on Iranian plants will ultimately fail in their objectives.

As we know the last tripartite summit in Lebanon, the French designation of a peace envoy, and the clashes this week in Burj Abi Haidar do confirm my assessment that the perimeter of the theater of regional confrontation is limited to Lebanon to enable a diplomatic/political breakthrough in world affairs.

My view suggested to put in place surrounding bases to Iran, a defensive/offensive build up coupled to strong sanctions leading the Iranian regime to cripple, implode and thus to negotiate the terms of its surrender. It seems that the IRGC is willing to start negotiations, but to reach out to the Iranian mainstream we need to strengthen the stick and cut Hezbollah tentacles in Lebanon. This requirement will reveal very precious in the negotiations, as the IRGC will have lost a negative card Hezb but gained a positive one the Consortium with Russia.

Basically we are changing the cards in hand of the counterpart and this will enable the US to come clean at the end of September/October having two agreements in place one for Palestine and one with Iran.

From above, strategic terms impose that Hizb will be deprived from its military assets, to reach global peace and power equilibrium. Therefore the international consensus for the Casus Belli (Federal Palestine, security of the state of Israel, Iranian negotiations and Peace in the Middle East) is well in place and advancing. An oyster policy will oblige Hizb to disarm or else to be reduced to a relic by an overwhelming, disproportionate, fast and irreversible action that will promote peace successfully.

Being in the midst of the campaign to disarm Hizb, I can safely say that it is inevitable for ISraeli armors to roll by September/October into Lebanon. Hizb has two choices, to lose power and reposition itself, or to fight on multiple fronts and lose the totality of its military assets. I was expecting the STL to announce its indictment on September the second to exert the most pressure, yet the interview of Bellemare on Now Lebanon suggests a different scenario. Therefore I reconsider and tend to put the indictment to be simultaneous to the upcoming conflagration.

Hizb loss in Lebanon will favor a rapprochement between all players on the China/Portugal mainland/surface. “Pax Riduttiva” will prevail.

The Syrian army, the LAF and Hamas would best stay idle or they will bear dire , very dire consequences.

Hizb loss and the Russian offer will shuffle the cards in hand of the IRGC and consign to US negotiators the key to a pragmatic deal. The only alternative to the pragmatic deal will be a US strategic/tactical bombardment by the end of November. Failure of the US to act swiflty on the Iranian nuclear file, will inevitably introduce a “Masada Doctrine”, where Israel will act alone, in a different perspective, where cards are not required .   

The Syrian nation following the new direction will benefit largely as much as a new Lebanon will benefit from the monopoly of coercion exerted only by a modern LAF, responding to an enlightened doctrine of defense. Reforms of both states will remain a major issue to tackle and the installment of a democratic stability will be the main objective of the elites.

The IRGC needs to put the ball in the nearest hole, thus, limit damage and surrender.

“A great advantage is to know the cards of the enemy, a luxury is to give the enemy the cards in hand”

Thank you,

Elie Nammour