The Contribute from Lebanon

September 2, 2013

English: A volcano called Syria

English: A volcano called Syria (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

Dear Reader,

 

Greetings and Good day,

 

“The art of beauty is the sober projection of a shared consensus”.

 

In his speech at the Rose Garden, the US president interpreted the global leadership spirit and the righteous geopolitical context.

 

The US administration’s collective opening salvo was excellent.

 

By seeking congressional approval and willing to enlarge the coalition to NATO and extra NATO members, the stature of a global vision is reinforced in the US administration.

 

Even if it is true that the pacific, will be important in the coming decades, and preparations are in process to place US assets in different countries to gain leverage in the Asian continent; it is also true that the Middle East is and will remain the fulcrum of politics and the corridor of energy.

 

If you don’t go to the ME, it will come to you.

 

China or Russia in any of their geopolitical moves will try ultimately, to ensure maritime control and to seek alliances in the ME, in order to become an uncontested leader among world powers.

 

So we can envision for now that, until the congress debate and vote and while the international final stand is being defined, a set of objectives need to be pursued.

 

While waiting for the UN report on the use of CW in Syria, the diplomatic objective should lobby for a UNSCR, that will ensure that Assad will be charged by crimes against humanity; and that he will never again threaten the Syrian people by any mean.

 

The UNSCR to be approved needs enormous lobbying versus Russia, and I encourage Prince Bandar to try again. It will also need British parliament rethinking next Sunday and the US congress to debate thoroughly and give full support to the president.

 

This resolution will call also for the implementation of an international conference to secure to the Syrian people the full spectrum of rights.

 

It will call also for the institution of an international force in Syria, of at least 20000 effective, needed for nation building efforts in Syria.

 

In the wide array of objectives, political ones also are tough.

 

Political objectives are to define a minimum common platform with international powers “y compris” Russia and China, for a peaceful transitional period in Syria, where Assad will leave and a new Syrian constitution will be put in place.

 

The Russian mantra consisting of the Syrian decision for their destiny is obsolete and was chemically destroyed by the regime itself.

 

Monitored, free and general elections will be the natural result of this political process.

 

Whenever diplomacy will fail again and politics will be idle, obviously there will be recourse to the last resort.

 

The US led military action, strong of a congressional and international support, will stir events in the direction of the termination of the civil war in Syria, to avoid further losses of human lives especially by chemical mass destruction weapons.

 

The strategic contour is clear and the stakes are very high, there is at play very much in terms of power and in terms of opportunities for the coming decades.

 

The US role in the world today and tomorrow, equally depends, on how it will exit the crisis in Syria as much as on economic recovery, internal reforms and debt reduction.

 

Considering also that, if you break it you own it, the international coalition will contribute in terms of a post- conflict stabilizing force, up to 25000 effective formed by, German, Polish, Japanese, Philippine, Swedish, French, Turkish, Moroccan and Indonesian troops; financed by gulf countries mainly by the KSA.

 

Talking about the military action, the window of time gained by the US president, (who has new cards: the initiative, and the tempo), will be required to deploy enormous military power and assets, in order to project unprecedented fire power when the momentum will come.

 

We know that the NIMITZ is being rerouted and this is great.

 

The International strike will definitely be after the g20, after the meetings at the UN, after the German elections and the vote in the congress.

 

Analysts will be watching the coming two weeks with interest, where planners will continue to position a wide variety of assets, to enable them project an overwhelming fire power never witnessed, in any previous conflict in the ME.

 

Whenever Assad will not leave before the zero hour, his fate is sealed by his own hands.

 

This window of time might induce Assad to commit new crimes to increment his culpability, but more important it shall be used to convince Syrian officers and ranks to defect.

 

Any attempt should be displayed, for Russia to be part of this international effort. The French president can take this task at heart.

 

Contingencies will be debated for a strategic and rapid action to annihilate Assad assets and simultaneously lessening his retaliation’s risks to almost a zero tolerance of losses, keeping a special eye on the chemical weapons and on the Lebanese theater.

 

Lebanon which is quasi hostage of Hezbollah will see Israel given free hand to take out Hezbollah military wing if the latter opens fire from Lebanese territory. Israel will be requested to safeguard Lebanese infrastructure and institutions.

 

Whenever Israel will terminate Hezbollah, Iran will remain solo. So What will Iran do?

 

Of course the implications of the Iranian role are to be carefully evaluated, simply because Iran’s IRGC will maneuver at best to maintain its regional assets, in a strategic scheme to become a nuclear new entry.

 

Therefore Iran is expected to enforce the stand of its satellites Assad and Hezbollah, by deploying assets.

 

The US President needs to act with grand tenor and grace, as wee know we will prevail.

 

Rational planning will carefully study sound risk calculation, fire power and righteous policies.              

 

Meanwhile the Fed will reunite, check on released economic data and decide to taper starting October.

 

Tapering will follow a mixed motion, from slow to rapid, as per the economic environment requirements and it will apply a flexible time range of 18 months approximately.

 

This contribute is from Lebanon, basin for more than a million Syrian refugees, and very seized on the actual geopolitical crisis.

 

Lebanon is a nation that will always be a staunch believer in liberties, coexistence and peace and a very close friend to the US.              

 

Lebanon dedicates this contribute to Aya the millionth Syrian refugee in Lebanon.  

 

“The energy of harmony fills the waves of colors and sounds”.   

 

Thank you

 

 

 

 

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Defining Moment in Syria

June 25, 2012

WMD world map

WMD world map (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Regardless of how things will develop, the trigger of action is pivotal”

Following the elections results in both Greece and Egypt, we can expect things to head in two different directions.

My view is that the Egyptian president will do his best to unite the nation and build a reformed country following the Turkish example. While in contrast I am not positive about the new cabinet performance in Greece.   

Both will need some time to set their sailing route and analysts will be looking into early signals to understand how the evolution of policies will likely proceed.

Meanwhile it is a fact that on a global scale there is downturn in productivity and consumption and this is bad news for growth and development.

China, Japan, the US, Europe and other main engines in the world industries are struggling to exit the slowdown and this is affecting the choices of politics and governments.

What we know is that the FED twisted again, while the EU will wait until the meeting of end June to express a unified stance. The remedy I see is that Latin countries introduce the PEDUL as a kin to the Euro, and that the US will extend taxes holidays and empower start ups and open to immigration and tourism.

We also know that talks between the P5+1 and Iran did not produce any tangible result, while the Syrian drama is getting uneasy.

Looking into precedents of interventions, we can list many cases, the most evident perhaps are Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Libya. Where I think there is no similarity is that the Syrian inventory of WMD represents an enormous threat to all mankind.

We learned on the weekend about the episode of downing the Turkish plane and the consulting meeting with NATO called by Turkey. It is my convincement that there should be no fly zones in Syria and that the WMD and neuralgic command centers must be secured/destroyed/controlled.

Today in Lebanon the national dialogue session will reconvene, and the Russian president will visit Israel. Both are important indicators, to follow on with all parties involved in Lebanon and Israel to keep both countries in safety, security and detached from the Syrian connection.

Defining the Syrian moment during July, by evolving the status quo into a final decline of the Assad clan, designing a political transition that will tutor all international powers, coupled to further sanctions on Iran will represent another step of enhanced diplomacy to avoid a military unilateral action by Israel.

“Time is running fast, unless policy makers will think in terms of celerity, the train of peace will be missed”         

Thank you,


The Grand Bargain

May 2, 2012

  

Nuclear symbol

Nuclear symbol (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Imagination is vital to explore in depth the potential alternatives or the possible scenarios”

In proximity with the planned meetings between Iran and the IAEA and with the P5+1, one can wonder what is an honest and objective contribute for these opportunities to become effective, and leading to a positive outcome.

So here I am with a full framework of thoughts, as an alternative to a scenario of regional war .

My impression is that both meetings IAEA and P5+1 are linked, and that in order to understand the possible evolution we need to assess the areas of outstanding and gradual solutions between Iran and other major powers.

The areas are intended to be as follows: the nuclear civil research and applications, the freeze of the military nuclear research and development, the Iranian human and universal rights record, the Iranian opposition and minorities rights and guarantees, the Iranian power projection and future, the sanctions and possible transformation into cooperation, the relations between Iran and the US and Israel, the future of the peace in the Middle East and the two states final maps, the Iranian role in Syria and Lebanon.

As for the nuclear topic, I am convinced that unless Iran will agree in the upcoming meeting with the IAEA to a gradual unfettered access and control to all sites within two months, starting with immediate visit to at least two sites chosen by IAEA experts and checked before the May 23 meeting, there will be no breakthrough.

By contrast freezing completely, irreversibly and immediately all military nuclear research and enrichment to 20 % will be met instantly by a freeze in imposing any additional sanctions in June.

As for existing stockpiles of enriched 20 % Uranium, part of these can be kept where they are under IAEA check, and their future usage can be negotiated in a separate track, leading in any case to secure all parties involved. An enounced principle of maintaining a pride quantity of 20 % Uranium and centrifuges on Iranian soil that will not shake the basis of negotiations can be elaborated.

Confidence building measures and trust will be needed to define and a complete set of measures to stop any verbal or propaganda attack also, will be observed.

Civil research and applications will be supported and a gradual revoke and release of existing sanctions will start within the end of the year and lead to an absence of sanctions after 2013 presidential Iranian election, only if the verifiable civil isotope framework is met.

Here we come to the Iranian human and universal rights record and the Iranian opposition and minorities rights and guarantees.

It is expected that Iran will make an independent announcement on how it will address these issues.

Observers and bloggers alike do recommend to ease restrictions on communications and media, and open up to all forms of liberties. Furthermore it needs to guarantee all minorities with a home grown process of reforms and effective laws, and ensure the persecuted opposition with a reliable process of exercise of executive powers.

The presidential campaign in 2013 is a great opportunity to rebalance the internal political Iranian panorama.

Iran can’t think to become a regional power if it will not become a true example of Islamic democracy.

As for the Iranian power projection and its geopolitical future coupled to the absence of sanctions and transformation of relations with major powers into cooperation, it is understood that the Iranian regime should at first realize where it came short in its economic model.

Iran can envisage an excellent role of gas exporter and link to Europe through a strategic and innovative relation with Turkey as per Franco German entente.

The Iranian-Turkish bloc will represent a great opportunity in the rising powers of the world in this century.

 This duo is already part of the N-11 and it can open up with an unprecedented effervescence and become a model of growth and stability for the global markets.

Much need to be done, especially in confronting the existing problems in the Middle East.

Unavoidably Turkey can lead the way for Iran to pacify with the US and NATO.

On a second step both they can perfect the relation with Israel and entice it to achieve just and agreed final maps of the two states solution: Palestine/Israel.

“Imagining the border” is a great document already produced by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that can definitely represent a base to start from.

Yes ! Right ! . So what else ?

oh true ! we still have the Syrian theater and the Lebanese cedar nation.

As regards Syria, there is only one option and this is for Assad clan to go in exile in Russia and be brought to justice in absentia.

An international conference to be held in Berlin or in Tehran will examine the best solutions to guarantee peace for the Syrian civil society and the best model for its political future, where all minorities and factions will be secured and a peaceful rotation in power will be managed for the best interest of the Syrian population.

Here we come to Lebanon, and it is needed that by the summer end a neutral cabinet will be approved by the parliament to supervise two things, the state budget of 2013 and the general elections of the parliament.

Fair play will be exerted.

The electoral law that the neurtral cabinet will put in place can be a mix of majority / proportional as per some specific requirements.

Those who believe that they can guide Lebanon into one direction that will not tutor collective national interests are destined to failure.

We know that an extraordinary display of human and fire power is already in the area and that drills are a daily routine, therefore I vividly ask all parties to go for the Grand Bargain.

Whenever radicalism will have the upper hand and the war camp will win, then I am afraid that my next post will need to talk about the Grand War.

I hope not.

Let us all join in a common dream for peace and here I quote a writer: “Rage, rage against the dying of the light”

Thank you


The US / Israeli Agreement

February 18, 2012

United (States) Parcel Service.

United (States) Parcel Service. (Photo credit: matt.hintsa)

English: Historic fire engine at Eretz Israel ...
Image via Wikipedia

 

 

 

 

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“In proximity with policy deadlines, major nervousness emerges; the key is to manage the outcomes of the chosen options”

It is no secret that the world today is facing three major issues to be tackled in the coming month of March. 

The Iranian Majlis election coupled to the offer of talks with the 3 + 3, the Greek Bailout, and the Syrian ouster of Assad.

As regards the clan of Assad, the debate is exhausted and the intelligent solution for Bashar would be to negotiate a safe exile in Algeria or Russia. It is a fact that the Syrian theater will witness major changes by applying corridors and where the conspiracy in the military will heighten the chances of an internal coup or simply the escalation will lead to major defections that will end up by the demise of Assad.

Coming to the Second Greek Bailout, it is well known that this is a temporary therapy that will not address the fundamentals.

Although the Germans will relax their conditions, a second bailout without a renewed Greek social pact for prosperity will reveal to be a postponement.

The dilemma facing the finance ministers in Brussels will be to postpone the Greek Debt problem some time, working meanwhile for a homegrown new social pact?

Or to release the solo Greek maneuver into default and facilitate the introduction of a new Drachma seeking the support of the financial “Club of Athens” established on purpose to coordinate the Greek debt in terms of major pressure on China, Iran and Russia, generating pressure on the EURO zone?.

The first option will bull the markets in new records while the second will cut the recent gains by an expected 5 to 6 percent. 

But aren’t the markets going to have gain cuts anyway due to the Iranian nuclear research?

This brings us to the Israeli national security, a motive that brought the US administration to send the NSA director in a prolonged visit of 3 days to Tel AVIV.

It is highly likely that an agreement will be finally reached and this will be as follows:

Considering that today will witness the reprisal of popular protest in Iran, that the Majlis election is near, that the tactics in negotiation with the 3+3 is tested sufficiently, it is agreed that negotiation can restart only with representatives of Mr. Profile after the elimination of the demon throne.

Considering that the enlargement of the nuclear club in the ME will pave the way for unstoppable armaments and uncalculated & unforeseen risks , it is agreed that under no circumstance nuclear enrichment activity will be allowed to proceed further.

 Thus the SWIFT operation with Iranian transactions will stop as early as next week.

Whenever sanctions and financial pressures will not alter the internal Iranian equilibrium significantly by the end of April, already given US green light will allow Israel to go solo on a first strike tentatively on May 10th, as a prelude of major NATO operations against strategic targets.

Considering that accurate assessments can’t be envisioned in the military operations, but a worst case scenario can tell that several theaters will be involved and losses in assets and lives will occur, it is agreed that five to twelve days are required to impose favorable conditions on the cease fire.

With the blessing of humanity and the desire for love, peace will prevail and the conflicting interests will be resolved in a way or another for the benefit of the majority of human beings.    

“ Momenti difficili ci attendono e I maggiori sacrifici saranno richiesti, ma l’abbraccio degli uomini e delle donne salvera’ la vita e la pace. “

Thank you,  


The demon throne

February 16, 2012

English: Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khāmenei, Superme...

Image via Wikipedia

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Sense-making in analysis necessitates the study of options and outcomes. Administrations holding options tend to maintain this behavioral advantage, while those dealing with outcomes tend to evolve into new geopolitical realities! “

We all know that the geographic area stretching from the Grand Middle East, to the Asian subcontinent is considered as the energy lungs of the world. 

The number of players involved in this area is large, where interests are defined on moving grounds and shifting strategic considerations.

As we are fast approaching the end of February the brutal and ruthless Syrian regime, killing its own people, can not terminate all civilians and many cities are still holding against the repression.

A vote at the General Assembly today will condemn the killers, and further pressures will build on Russia and China to pave the way for a biding UNSC resolution. Meanwhile the opposition military operations will proceed at an increasing phase and it is soon expected that protected geographic corridors will be established.

A northern corridor will be handled by Turkey and a southern one will be managed by Jordan.

During March and immediately after the visit of the Israeli PM to the US, the Syrian theater will have major intensity in military strategy where the brutal regime will be shaken further and the opposition unity will reach a tipping point to attract more defectors and upper level commanders.

Bashar will have two options expiring by mid April either to go to exile or to be eliminated.

In Turkey I met an Iranian lady and asked her who is more important for the Iranian peoples in absolute terms : Queen Soudabeh  Hakhamaneshian , Cyrus, Neda Soltaneh or Mr Khamenei ?

Her reply was Neda, Cyrus, Soudabeh, Khamenei.

As I asked her what can be the message she is willing to send the world on behalf of her nation ahead of the vote of March, she didn’t have anything to convey. She mentioned that the people is tired and doesn’t believe any more in anything. The opposition while not interest in the vote of the majlis, is holding a major demonstration on schedule for next saturday.

If it is true that nationalism can unite the Iranian mosaic components, it is also true that the biggest majority of Iranian society from all sides agree that Khamenei and the role of Supreme leader is not any more effective to the cause of the state.

This is a unique coincidence where Iranians unite for their nation and against the man behind the nuclear challenge.  Is this the prelude to the solution?  I say yes.

A covert action targeting Khamenei should be achieved, where he can lose control on a soap or lose weight due to an infection, or simply have an insecticide diluted in his tea, or else.    

I am convinced that the environment post-Khamenei will determinate much better conditions for peace, and understanding.

The shelling of Homs and the letter to the EU to restart talks with the 3 plus 3 will not be capable to alter the fate of the Arab Spring and the upcoming opportunities.

Bashar has only one way and this is to leave power with or without Chinese/Russian help, as much as Khamenei will also need to depart dead his demon throne.

Whenever attempts to move forward in Syria and Iran, either to exile or terminate Bashar, and eliminate the supreme leader, will be derailed, I am afraid that the only solution or option available will be the use of crude power and force.

Close to the NATO meeting in Chicago, tentatively on May 10th, opening Israeli multiple attacks will take place on Iranian nuclear assets, on Hezbollah and will buzz the presidential palace in Damascus dropping a load of bombs. A coalition of other nation’s military assets will follow up on consecutive sorties to define the political novelty.

What will follow will be a different Eurasian reality, that will secure prosperity and energy.

“ talvolta la perdita e il rischio si calcolano su scala grande e complessa, qualvolta invece tutto il rischio e la perdita si concentra su una o piu’ persone”

Thank you,  


Open Letter to Najib Mikati

March 4, 2011

Second Floor, Northwest Gallery. Mural of Peac...

Image via Wikipedia

Mr Prime Minister,

Greetings and Good Day,

“History is a major witness for the glory of mankind, and statesman hood is the progressive tool for governance”

Looking into the prism of actual events unfolding in the world today necessitates a great wisdom and an innovative understanding of the evolving mechanisms.

The sequence of rapid news was clearly fast and implicates a calm reading. Starting from the Sudan referenda, the Lebanese nominee of a new PM, the Tunisian and Egyptian changes, the Yemeni, Omani, Jordanian, Bahraini, Moroccan, Iranian, Saudi and Chinese protests, the eastern Libyan revival, and to end the spinning issue of Cote D’Ivoire and/or other African nations do recommend a methodical approach.

Your Excellency, recent meetings in Davos, G20, NATO, US/Mexican, Sino/US, reveal the pervasiveness of problems and the lack of an encompassing liberal rational solving.

It is a fact that the US recovery is leading again the world economies, although shy and not yet perfecting the reprisal of job creation. A mechanism of VAT taxation and easing on highly skilled immigration need to be put in place in order to boost the growth and activate a better opportunity for effective golden comebacks.

While NATO is developing further and China amplifying its assertive air and naval power, influential guidance in world affairs is pivotal to shape events in a peaceful current and perspective.

Multiple economic hubs such as US, China, India, Germany, Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and Lebanon are already leading growth and exerting a global system of check, prosperity and effectiveness. It goes without saying that this is possible because of an undeclared and without fanfare US Modern Grand Strategy leading the transition from mono-polar governance to multi-hub governance. This consequential approach in foreign affairs, is securing the peaceful conduit for soft and eased international relations.

US full partnership with Russia, Strategic cooperation with India, Encompassing economic concert with China and empowerment of emerging powers, are all fundamental basics for a lasting world equilibrium. Governance in the coming decades will focus on widening international trade, strengthening education exchange, monitoring immigration fluxes, achieving global security and securing food provisions.

It will also ensure aid delivery, protect energy routes, decrease currency fluctuations, introduce finance regulations, put in place reforms and gradually reduce debt, while allowing growth, exports and spending.

Considering the geopolitics in the area comprised between China and Portugal, one can notice the US brokered new government in Iraq, its effort to create momentum for a “Jirga Governance” in the Af-Pak Theater, its responsible attitude towards freedom movements in the African/ Asian poor continents, the Middle East , the Persian/ Arab Peninsula and the Korean Theater. Lately a high US defense official denounced Asian interventions, forgetting that the American supremacy in truth is not about American empire, vested interests, naval power, space and poles control, rather it is about the spirit of meddling with sacrifice to generate immense changes in the world for the benefit of humanity.

Your Excellency, the first charity in the world dates back to 1244 and it is “ La Misericordia di Firenze”, and the first charitable nation in spreading liberal values and ethics is “ The United States of America “ .

The multi-hub governance active through balancing nations Brazil, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway and Lebanon will further contribute in the design of freedom expansion and peaceful world governance.

Coming to the Middle East, to our dear Lebanon and to the cause of Peace, inevitably we witness the slowdown of the Iranian nuclear activity and the total absence of the Israeli statesman initiative for peace. My conviction is that unless we move forward for peace, our nation will succumb to a destiny of defeat and will be disoriented in being the homeland for tolerance, acceptance, openness and progress.

I know that to the resignation of Lebanese ministers is linked to the deposited indictment of the STL and that your nominee rivets a major happening in the modern history of Lebanon. Therefore I ask you to use your influential connections to avoid a conflagration and to guarantee acceptance, tolerance and diversity by moving forward democratic stability.

Walk your way Sir, and work only for a governing formula of 10- 10-10, where any majority or opposition will allot 10 ministers and the President, the PM and the PSP will allot 10. Your successful task is to form a cabinet that will generate a momentum for peace where a tripartite summit will be held in Baabda between Lebanon, Syria and Israel. The actual strategic equilibrium can change in two directions, towards peace or war, and the interest of Lebanon to move it versus peace.

Only on the altar of peace can all sacrifices be accomplished and it is your responsibility to seek the solution and to pursue the national cohesion and harmony. Regional Peace can create the right environment for democracy, justice, stability and reforms in Lebanon. Regional Peace can breakthrough the “Commission for prosperity and truth ” and can set the best conditions for a deal with the STL.

Here lies the interests of the Lebanese collectivity to become a future specialized pole for conventions and a net energy exporter.

Lack of implementation of the above vision will maintain in place two international red lines, the security of the state of Israel and the sovereignty and freedom of the Lebanese state.

And let me be honest with you and stress that any one sided government in Lebanon will trigger a “Casus Belli” as it will alter the strategic equilibrium, and this means a major military invasion that will be expanding to neighboring Syria and multi-theater in case of Iranian meddling. The ground invasion will be quick, overwhelming, disproportionate, decisive, aggressive, very fast, extremely powerful and irreversible.

I will consider that your mission is an opportunity to resist the threat of vengeance, divisiveness, and unilateralism. Power and influence can walk in tandem only with winning arguments. I ask you to reach out to all components of the civil society and of the political spectrum, again and again and again, with unrelenting pace until a balanced government will be formed.

All issues can be dealt with, and you need to have the trust and faith that we shall overcome, Lebanon will win at the end.

This open letter is meant to stand by you in the coming period and assure you that you are not alone defending the interests of the collectivity, there are many Lebanese peace lovers behind you.

All free and independent Lebanese are longing for unity and peace with all neighbors.

Peace will prevail as it is defended by the most formidable armada and by the best display of fire power, diplomacy and intelligence.

My self and many other sage activists will navigate between conflicting areas focusing on converging interests and safeguard Lebanon. Let me be clear again, I will stand against attempts to form any government which will not represent the interests of the collectivity.

Beirut is the place for a world parliament to convene and for a regional hub of tourism to kick start a model of fraternity in a world in shortage of raw materials and food provisions.

Conviction is the spirit of your mission and this erases time as a factor.

“ Wise decisions are the ingredients for potentates to express vision, and there is no better horizon than peace ”

Thank you,