Greetings and Good day,
“The art of beauty is the sober projection of a shared consensus”.
In his speech at the Rose Garden, the US president interpreted the global leadership spirit and the righteous geopolitical context.
The US administration’s collective opening salvo was excellent.
By seeking congressional approval and willing to enlarge the coalition to NATO and extra NATO members, the stature of a global vision is reinforced in the US administration.
Even if it is true that the pacific, will be important in the coming decades, and preparations are in process to place US assets in different countries to gain leverage in the Asian continent; it is also true that the Middle East is and will remain the fulcrum of politics and the corridor of energy.
If you don’t go to the ME, it will come to you.
China or Russia in any of their geopolitical moves will try ultimately, to ensure maritime control and to seek alliances in the ME, in order to become an uncontested leader among world powers.
So we can envision for now that, until the congress debate and vote and while the international final stand is being defined, a set of objectives need to be pursued.
While waiting for the UN report on the use of CW in Syria, the diplomatic objective should lobby for a UNSCR, that will ensure that Assad will be charged by crimes against humanity; and that he will never again threaten the Syrian people by any mean.
The UNSCR to be approved needs enormous lobbying versus Russia, and I encourage Prince Bandar to try again. It will also need British parliament rethinking next Sunday and the US congress to debate thoroughly and give full support to the president.
This resolution will call also for the implementation of an international conference to secure to the Syrian people the full spectrum of rights.
It will call also for the institution of an international force in Syria, of at least 20000 effective, needed for nation building efforts in Syria.
In the wide array of objectives, political ones also are tough.
Political objectives are to define a minimum common platform with international powers “y compris” Russia and China, for a peaceful transitional period in Syria, where Assad will leave and a new Syrian constitution will be put in place.
The Russian mantra consisting of the Syrian decision for their destiny is obsolete and was chemically destroyed by the regime itself.
Monitored, free and general elections will be the natural result of this political process.
Whenever diplomacy will fail again and politics will be idle, obviously there will be recourse to the last resort.
The US led military action, strong of a congressional and international support, will stir events in the direction of the termination of the civil war in Syria, to avoid further losses of human lives especially by chemical mass destruction weapons.
The strategic contour is clear and the stakes are very high, there is at play very much in terms of power and in terms of opportunities for the coming decades.
The US role in the world today and tomorrow, equally depends, on how it will exit the crisis in Syria as much as on economic recovery, internal reforms and debt reduction.
Considering also that, if you break it you own it, the international coalition will contribute in terms of a post- conflict stabilizing force, up to 25000 effective formed by, German, Polish, Japanese, Philippine, Swedish, French, Turkish, Moroccan and Indonesian troops; financed by gulf countries mainly by the KSA.
Talking about the military action, the window of time gained by the US president, (who has new cards: the initiative, and the tempo), will be required to deploy enormous military power and assets, in order to project unprecedented fire power when the momentum will come.
We know that the NIMITZ is being rerouted and this is great.
The International strike will definitely be after the g20, after the meetings at the UN, after the German elections and the vote in the congress.
Analysts will be watching the coming two weeks with interest, where planners will continue to position a wide variety of assets, to enable them project an overwhelming fire power never witnessed, in any previous conflict in the ME.
Whenever Assad will not leave before the zero hour, his fate is sealed by his own hands.
This window of time might induce Assad to commit new crimes to increment his culpability, but more important it shall be used to convince Syrian officers and ranks to defect.
Any attempt should be displayed, for Russia to be part of this international effort. The French president can take this task at heart.
Contingencies will be debated for a strategic and rapid action to annihilate Assad assets and simultaneously lessening his retaliation’s risks to almost a zero tolerance of losses, keeping a special eye on the chemical weapons and on the Lebanese theater.
Lebanon which is quasi hostage of Hezbollah will see Israel given free hand to take out Hezbollah military wing if the latter opens fire from Lebanese territory. Israel will be requested to safeguard Lebanese infrastructure and institutions.
Whenever Israel will terminate Hezbollah, Iran will remain solo. So What will Iran do?
Of course the implications of the Iranian role are to be carefully evaluated, simply because Iran’s IRGC will maneuver at best to maintain its regional assets, in a strategic scheme to become a nuclear new entry.
Therefore Iran is expected to enforce the stand of its satellites Assad and Hezbollah, by deploying assets.
The US President needs to act with grand tenor and grace, as wee know we will prevail.
Rational planning will carefully study sound risk calculation, fire power and righteous policies.
Meanwhile the Fed will reunite, check on released economic data and decide to taper starting October.
Tapering will follow a mixed motion, from slow to rapid, as per the economic environment requirements and it will apply a flexible time range of 18 months approximately.
This contribute is from Lebanon, basin for more than a million Syrian refugees, and very seized on the actual geopolitical crisis.
Lebanon is a nation that will always be a staunch believer in liberties, coexistence and peace and a very close friend to the US.
Lebanon dedicates this contribute to Aya the millionth Syrian refugee in Lebanon.
“The energy of harmony fills the waves of colors and sounds”.
- We Stand Behind the Syrian People’s Revolution – No to Foreign Intervention (socialistworker.co.uk)
- Once Upon An Intervention – The Syrian Story (jessesharratt.wordpress.com)
- NATO Chief´s Deceptive Narrative of No NATO Involvement in Syria (nsnbc.me)
- Lebanon refugee policies putting Syrians at risk: NGO (dailystar.com.lb)
- Hezbollah reportedly mobilizes forces in south Lebanon (timesofisrael.com)
- Local hospitals unable to treat more Syrian refugees (dailystar.com.lb)