May 31, 2012

S. Mervin, Le Hezbollah, état des lieux (Actes...

S. Mervin, Le Hezbollah, état des lieux (Actes Sud-Ifpo, 2008) (Photo credit: l’Ifpo)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Examining and monitoring events lead us to understand that the upcoming month is very pivotal”

It is amazing how things are rapidly developing.

I quote unquote Bloomberg today : “Asian stocks tumbled, heading for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years, while U.S. bond yields fell to a record low and the yen strengthened as divisions widened over solving Europe’s debt crisis. Oil in New York entered a bear market”.

So the financing of the US debt is at its lowest record low from one side and from another, Oil is in a bear market, two great indicators for the major world economy.

However this will expose the geopolitics in an unprecedented way as it will increase the risks of non state actors to drown the US policies before the presidential elections.

Here is another, and I quote unquote: “US Ambassador Susan Rice warned the UN Security Council that if it does not act swiftly to pressure Syria to end its crackdown, members may have no choice but to consider acting outside the UN and the Annan plan. Otherwise, she said, the conflict would spread and create a major crisis for other countries and region-wide.”

On another hand the spokesperson for Mr. Putin affirmed that Russia will not change its stand on Syria, while the FSA gave the Assad clan 48 hours ultimatum before the reprisal of military activities on large scale.

And further more we know that some buildings are being erased in the nuclear site of Parchin and that the Iranian president declared he doesn’t expect any breakthrough in Moscow, while the Israeli defense minister declared he is on an ever watch of Iranian activities.

WOW , how many threats to stability , all leading the advisers of president Obama to lose their sleep, especially if we add the EURO zone challenges, where Greece is ahead of elections, Italy could not meet its objective to sell obligations and Spain struggling hard to find an exit.

So how can we put order and define a policy?

It goes without saying that in front of the massacres enacted, inaction is not anymore an appropriate measure, from here I tend to consider that in the next Friends of Syria meeting in Paris in early July (Mr. Obama will attend hopefully), Russia should be invited ( Mr Hollande can ask Mr Putin this Friday to attend), with China, and whenever these two nations will refuse to join the ranks of the international community, well then military action outside the UN will become compulsory.

By July 20th, Aerial sorties from Incirlik, Jordan, Cyprus and the Mediterranean naval assets will erase command and control main nerves and destroy aerial defenses while securing CBW inventories in Syria.

 Assad will be knocked down, no ifs or buts. The national aspirations of the Syrian population will be served.

On another front it is understood that in Moscow there will be no effective agreements or frameworks to create conditions for a grand bargain with Iran, therefore we need to figure out what can be the effects of an attack ordered by Iran to its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel.

Such a preemptive attack will result in : increasing oil prices, generating instability that will reverse the trend of US bonds, disabling European plans to create two Euros and face the financial crisis, disrupting Israeli air power preparations to attack Iran, diverting attention from the Syrian theater and giving breath to the killing machine of the Assad Clan, enforcing the grip of the model of tyranny governing Lebanon and the Shiite crescent in general, and imposing a national rhetoric in Lebanon that will play in the hands of Hezbollah on the long run. Iran will benefit immensely as much as Russia and China from such a scenario. In fact Iran will gain at least six or eigth months time without negotiating and enriching at will.

 Bingo !!!!!!

The advisers of President Obama are still trying to adjust, take hold, understand, negotiate, facilitate, and much more, while we are in the midst of a major international crisis already taking place.

What else should we do to help these guys realize that time is running and they need to be truly in charge or else the US soft and hard power will lose spheres of influence?

“ Wise men and women, policy makers, analysts, researchers, thinkers, associations of science will contribute to trace a powerful route to the good actions and to the wellbeing of the world citizenry”

Thank you,