Greetings and Good Day,
“Imagination is vital to explore in depth the potential alternatives or the possible scenarios”
In proximity with the planned meetings between Iran and the IAEA and with the P5+1, one can wonder what is an honest and objective contribute for these opportunities to become effective, and leading to a positive outcome.
So here I am with a full framework of thoughts, as an alternative to a scenario of regional war .
My impression is that both meetings IAEA and P5+1 are linked, and that in order to understand the possible evolution we need to assess the areas of outstanding and gradual solutions between Iran and other major powers.
The areas are intended to be as follows: the nuclear civil research and applications, the freeze of the military nuclear research and development, the Iranian human and universal rights record, the Iranian opposition and minorities rights and guarantees, the Iranian power projection and future, the sanctions and possible transformation into cooperation, the relations between Iran and the US and Israel, the future of the peace in the Middle East and the two states final maps, the Iranian role in Syria and Lebanon.
As for the nuclear topic, I am convinced that unless Iran will agree in the upcoming meeting with the IAEA to a gradual unfettered access and control to all sites within two months, starting with immediate visit to at least two sites chosen by IAEA experts and checked before the May 23 meeting, there will be no breakthrough.
By contrast freezing completely, irreversibly and immediately all military nuclear research and enrichment to 20 % will be met instantly by a freeze in imposing any additional sanctions in June.
As for existing stockpiles of enriched 20 % Uranium, part of these can be kept where they are under IAEA check, and their future usage can be negotiated in a separate track, leading in any case to secure all parties involved. An enounced principle of maintaining a pride quantity of 20 % Uranium and centrifuges on Iranian soil that will not shake the basis of negotiations can be elaborated.
Confidence building measures and trust will be needed to define and a complete set of measures to stop any verbal or propaganda attack also, will be observed.
Civil research and applications will be supported and a gradual revoke and release of existing sanctions will start within the end of the year and lead to an absence of sanctions after 2013 presidential Iranian election, only if the verifiable civil isotope framework is met.
Here we come to the Iranian human and universal rights record and the Iranian opposition and minorities rights and guarantees.
It is expected that Iran will make an independent announcement on how it will address these issues.
Observers and bloggers alike do recommend to ease restrictions on communications and media, and open up to all forms of liberties. Furthermore it needs to guarantee all minorities with a home grown process of reforms and effective laws, and ensure the persecuted opposition with a reliable process of exercise of executive powers.
The presidential campaign in 2013 is a great opportunity to rebalance the internal political Iranian panorama.
Iran can’t think to become a regional power if it will not become a true example of Islamic democracy.
As for the Iranian power projection and its geopolitical future coupled to the absence of sanctions and transformation of relations with major powers into cooperation, it is understood that the Iranian regime should at first realize where it came short in its economic model.
Iran can envisage an excellent role of gas exporter and link to Europe through a strategic and innovative relation with Turkey as per Franco German entente.
The Iranian-Turkish bloc will represent a great opportunity in the rising powers of the world in this century.
This duo is already part of the N-11 and it can open up with an unprecedented effervescence and become a model of growth and stability for the global markets.
Much need to be done, especially in confronting the existing problems in the Middle East.
Unavoidably Turkey can lead the way for Iran to pacify with the US and NATO.
On a second step both they can perfect the relation with Israel and entice it to achieve just and agreed final maps of the two states solution: Palestine/Israel.
“Imagining the border” is a great document already produced by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that can definitely represent a base to start from.
Yes ! Right ! . So what else ?
As regards Syria, there is only one option and this is for Assad clan to go in exile in Russia and be brought to justice in absentia.
An international conference to be held in Berlin or in Tehran will examine the best solutions to guarantee peace for the Syrian civil society and the best model for its political future, where all minorities and factions will be secured and a peaceful rotation in power will be managed for the best interest of the Syrian population.
Here we come to Lebanon, and it is needed that by the summer end a neutral cabinet will be approved by the parliament to supervise two things, the state budget of 2013 and the general elections of the parliament.
Fair play will be exerted.
The electoral law that the neurtral cabinet will put in place can be a mix of majority / proportional as per some specific requirements.
Those who believe that they can guide Lebanon into one direction that will not tutor collective national interests are destined to failure.
We know that an extraordinary display of human and fire power is already in the area and that drills are a daily routine, therefore I vividly ask all parties to go for the Grand Bargain.
Whenever radicalism will have the upper hand and the war camp will win, then I am afraid that my next post will need to talk about the Grand War.
I hope not.
Let us all join in a common dream for peace and here I quote a writer: “Rage, rage against the dying of the light”
- Iran’s IAEA envoy rules out any halt to nuclear program (dailystar.com.lb)
- Iran hopes for “successful” nuclear talks with U.N. (dailystar.com.lb)
- Understanding Iran’s diplomatic strategy (aljazeera.com)
- Iran: IAEA talks for May 13-14 in Vienna (kansascity.com)
- Iran might sign NPT protocol for snap inspections (timesofisrael.com)
- IAEA confirms talks to resume with Iran (dailystar.com.lb)
- Iran: Nuclear talks move to Vienna May 13-14 (ctv.ca)
- Khamenei welcomes Obama’s “window of opportunity” (cbsnews.com)
- IAEA: Iran To Upgrade Missile For Nuke Use (cbsnews.com)
- US to concede on uranium enrichment for Iran? – RT (rt.com)
- How to Engage Iran (irannewpearlharbour.wordpress.com)
- So What If Iran Goes Nuclear? (thedailybeast.com)
- A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran (newstatesman.com)
- Iranians step up output of nuke fuel (mysanantonio.com)
- U.S.-Iran Talks: Set Up To Crash And Burn (disquietreservations.blogspot.com)
- Diplomacy to seal Iran’s fate (irannewpearlharbour.wordpress.com)
- Iran’s Destructive Fear of America (theatlantic.com)
- Oil Prices: Saudi Pumping Surge & US-EU Iran Strategy (globalbarrel.com)
- Watch GPS: Martin Dempsey on Syria, Iran and China – CNN (globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com)
- Walt and Mearsheimer don’t think Israel will attack Iran, and neither will we (mondoweiss.net)
- Negotiating With Iran (counterpunch.org)
- Iran: Pre-emptive strike against enemies possible (cbsnews.com)