From Westphalia to Moscow

Putin’s Arms Sales to Assad – BUSINESS is BUSINESS (Photo credit: FreedomHouse)

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,
“In times of human massacres, wise men and women develop great ideas. History in the making from Westphalia to Moscow “
While all eyes are on the economic gloom spreading on a global scale, analysts are expecting a policy vision from the EU summit, clarity in the QE3 expectation from the FED, a highlight from China on its transforming easy export into internal development.
It is obvious that Greece, Spain and Italy are becoming impending and pressing issues, therefore markets can’t wait for fiscal measures to be put in place to tackle the problems.

Rather a monetary decision to introduce the weak euro as a kin to the strong euro is the best device we can project to calm markets and avoid a cataclysm.
As for the FED, one can expect a revised and more limited extension of the twist operation, but not a true easing, as time is not ripe for this, having president Obama lost his chance to apply a bigger amount to develop spending.

From here I expect the horse bet of the Obama team for reelection to become foreign policy and an incremental tough handling of the Iranian file, while offering a coddle on the Syrian theater.  

Chinese policy makers will be dealing on their internal moves to elect the nomenclatural elite and go through a shaky cycle in developing business with international trade and partners.
So what will be the hot topic for the summer? Iran or Syria ? or Both ?
It is understood that the IAEA will have talks with Iran soon and that the P5+1 will have a new round also in Moscow. Expectations are very weak and my perception is that we will go on strengthened sanctions by the EU for Oil and the US for blockade to be imposed from July onward.
So the main event will be from now on, the Syrian transition, as we know about Russian flexibility and availability to find a way out of the actual mess.
Mr. Kissinger lately wrote about Westphalia and the humanitarian intervention, and Mr. Putin seems a knight and custodian of that order laying the foundation of the nation state sovereignty.
Yet this is not anymore the case in our modern times, from here I think that Putin will call on a conference for Syria in Moscow immediately after the friends for Syria conference in Paris.
The conference of Moscow will host international players, the UNSC countries, European powers, ME countries, Arab league countries, and other major Asian and Australasian players. The talks will agree to transform the Annan mission in a peace securing concept , adding more troops up to 15000, where Russians will be a major part, securing the WMD deposits and creating safety nets on ground to threatened communities.
Russia will offer exile to all the Assad clan in Sochi, and a negotiated transition will develop in Syria until the Syrian population will obtain its historic and universal rights and aspirations.
A model for transition can be as follows :  a triumvirate will be in charge after the departure of the Assad clan, composed by the vice president female representing the old republic, an Alawite officer not related to Assad family representing the honor of the military, and a representative of the Syrian opposition.
The triumvirate will order immediate halt of all hostilities, a return of all soldiers to the same army with full guarantee, a reshuffle in army posts and a neutral standing of the institutions versus all communities, it will dissolve the parliament and call for a referendum to establish a new constitution. Municipal elections will take place in December and general elections to follow in the spring.

Beside this conference will set the precedent that in some geographic areas, there is momentum also for outside thinking of the nation state pillar.

Tackling the Iranian issue will follow suit in upcoming posts.
“ Westphalia signed a new era of international peace, although followed by major wars, Moscow will sign a new era of political intelligence and it will not be followed by any war “        

Thank you,

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